Cheltenham Champion Hurdle 2016

[Aidymac]

TRENDS

• 22 of the last 27 winners had won their previous race.
• Champion Hurdle past winners, have often come back and completed the double, the last was Hardy Eustace (2004/05)
• Katchit was the last 5 year old to win the race since 1985 back in 2008. Go for the older horses.
• 4 of the last 10 winners were sent off Favourite.
• Age is crucial in the Champion Hurdle and stats say you need to back a horse aged 6, 7 or 8.
• 14 of the last 18 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at Cheltenham before.
• 6 of the last 12 winners have been trained in Ireland.
• 19 of the last 20 winners came from the first six in the betting.

 

VERDICT

We all know that Faugheen is going to win by a wide margin if he comes here anywhere near his best. He really is a machine and the manner of his victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle was out of this world. However, he is far too short a price to be getting involved with and we need to look at the "Without FAV" market for a bit of a price.

The horse we should back in this market is Nichols Canyon (7/2, Sky Bet). He had a very tough race when he beat Faugheen earlier in the season and was off the bridle a long way from home in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Arctic Fire finished a long way ahead of him that day but lets not forget, Nichols Canyon is a 6 time Grade 1 winner and Arctic Fire has only ever won 1 Grade 1.

 

Back Nichols Canyon W/O Faugheen @ 7/2 Sky Bet

 

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[Blazing Bailey]

Champion Hurdle (prices taken from Bet365)

Faugheen 1/3

As much as I would love to find an angle to get this one beaten, I simply can’t. His last performance was devastating and there isn’t anything else in the field that will get close to him. He does clout a couple but it doesn’t seem to slow his momentum in anyway. Whilst I wouldn’t back him myself at the price, he is probably worth it and if you are having a multiple bet at the festival he has the probably the banker of the 4 days.

Arctic Fire 8/1

We know that Arctic Fire is a good horse and can run to a reasonable standard behind Faugheen I can’t see him reversing that form under any circumstances however he is the obvious candidate to finish 2^nd as he has been doing a good job of it so far in his career. The quicker they go up front the better and with Faugheen, Nicholls Canyon, possibly Top Notch and also Identity Theif in the line-up, I can’t see it being slowly run, so again that should play into hands.

Nichols Canyon 10/1

I actually fancied this horse to give Faugheen a real run for his money last time but it seemed clear to me that the race against Identity Thief a few weeks earlier had taken its toll and that was later alluded to by the trainer of Identity Thief when explaining his decision not to also run in the same race. Its hard to see if he would have got close to Faugheen given how well that one did run but now he has had two tough races and whilst it may be foolish to underestimate the ability of Willie Mullins to freshen him up once more, I am concerned that it will have left enough of a mark and jeopardised any chance he has here.

Peace & Co 14/1

Its hard to know what to make of this horse until he confirms his well-being this weekend, however we know he is a classy horse and has festival form after winning the Triumph last year. We know that both he and Top Notch are closely rated based on that form and we also know that Top Notch is closely rated to Identity Thief and by extension Nichols Canyon based on the Fighting Fifth and Irish form. Whilst he has plenty of form on soft, I do think he would be better suited by good ground (or at least better than soft) whereas I believe Top Notch and Identity Thief may be best suited by a bit more give in the ground.

Identity Thief 14/1

This horse has improved bundles this year and his win and 2^nd on his last two starts give him a place chance in this. I have covered most of the form angles, but being a fresher horse than NC, if it were to come up on the softer side of good, preferably genuinely soft ground then he would be of definite interest.

Camping Ground 16

I don’t think this horse is short of speed so it was a surprise to see him try 24f and the drop back in trip with an aggressive ride would be an interesting proposition however 16f on quick ground would be a big concern, but on soft ground then I could see a big run. He has enough to prove at these prices given the odds of some of those ahead of him with a better chance.

The New One 20

There isn’t much I really need to right here. He will be there or thereabouts and will be challenging for a place but it will be a tough ask for him to beat a couple of these and his jumping will be a big hindrance once more.

My Tent of Yours 25

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Henderson somehow gets him back to 100% for March then he has a chance however I don’t fancy the chances of that.

Top Notch 33

Its not guaranteed that this horse will run here as of yet but if you ignore his last run (trying 20f on bad ground) then you can give his horse a big shout of some place money given the form already mentioned with NC, IT and P&C. I would give this horse a big priced place shout on soft ground.

 

Good or Good to Soft

1. Faugheen

2. Arctic Fire

3. Peace & Co

Soft or worse

1. Faugheen

2. Identity Thief

3. Top Notch

 

I put this up in my thread a few days ago now so the prices are old. I would write Peace & Co out completely now based on the weekends running as it was simply too bad to trust that he will then go and beat a decent field.

Looking in the w/out markets we seem to have around 2/1 for Arctic Fire and 4/1 for Identity Thief. If I am honest I dont really see either of them as value this early without knowing the ground. I would be more tempted by the latter if the ground was softer.

Out of interest does anyone else have an opinion on ground preference for Identity Thief?

[Aidymac]

Out of interest Bailey, what makes you think Identity Thief can finish ahead of Nichols Canyon? Canyon was a no show last time out, but he is a much better horse than that. 6 time Grade 1 winner speaks for itself, just a poor day at the office last time which I can forgive. Even Arctic Fire has only ever won 1 Grade 1.. The way I see it is, Canyon is the only horse to ever beat The Machine, and if Canyon is fit and well I can't see any other horse chasing him home in March. The only other I could consider is Arctic Fire. NC and IT have both has 3 runs this season so I personally don't think he will be a fresher horse come next month.

[arsenalfh]

@Blazing Bailey

Identity Thief travels like a horse who will appreciate quicker ground I think.

I never liked Faugheen and thought he was beating nothing so I had Nichols Canyon backed e/w from the start of the season. I thought he would be dodgy under pressure but he really swatted aside Nichols Canyon the last day when he came upsides at the 2nd last. It was a fantastic display but you could argue Nichols Canyon was still feeling his run at Christmas and Arctic Fire also scoped bad at Christmas so he also possibly wasn't at his best. I also didn't like the way Townend never even attempted to make the running when Nichols Canyon clearly is a horse who jumps superbly and can put his rivals under pressure from the front.

I think I put it up in the Cheltenham chat thread but I also backed Identity Thief e/w after the Ryanair at Christmas. He traveled all over Nichols Canyon and will appreciate the sounder surface more than him. Also he's massively progressive having only hitting the track for the first time just over a year ago and could well improve past him.

I don't think Faugheen really has a chance of being beaten unless Nichols Canyon makes the running like he did in the Morgiana. Unfortunately the yard won't allow the pair to fight for the lead and Nichols Canyon will likely be forced to track Faugheen which clearly doesn't suit the horse when he jumps so well from the front. My win bets aren't looking good but I think Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief are the two next best and hopefully will fill the places. With the potential for more improvement Identity Thief still looks a good e/w bet or a nice price in the w/o Faugheen market.

[Blazing Bailey]

1 hour ago, Aidymac said:

Out of interest Bailey, what makes you think Identity Thief can finish ahead of Nichols Canyon? Canyon was a no show last time out, but he is a much better horse than that. 6 time Grade 1 winner speaks for itself, just a poor day at the office last time which I can forgive. Even Arctic Fire has only ever won 1 Grade 1.. The way I see it is, Canyon is the only horse to ever beat The Machine, and if Canyon is fit and well I can't see any other horse chasing him home in March. The only other I could consider is Arctic Fire. NC and IT have both has 3 runs this season so I personally don't think he will be a fresher horse come next month.

It's purely the angle that Nicholls Canyon might have left Cheltenham behind when beating Identity Thief two runs back. I probably shouldn't underestimate Mullins training ability but Nicholls Canyon went out like a light LTO at a stage when I thought he was travelling well and that isn't him. Added to the fact that Nicholls Canyon is better on soft ground whereas Artic Fire will improve for the better ground which you would expect at Cheltenham. I don't like him (Artic Fire) from a value perspective because he won't beat Faugheen but I can see him picking up the pieces like last season.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Blazing Bailey
Clarification

[Blazing Bailey]

33 minutes ago, arsenalfh said:

@Blazing Bailey

Identity Thief travels like a horse who will appreciate quicker ground I think.

I never liked Faugheen and thought he was beating nothing so I had Nichols Canyon backed e/w from the start of the season. I thought he would be dodgy under pressure but he really swatted aside Nichols Canyon the last day when he came upsides at the 2nd last. It was a fantastic display but you could argue Nichols Canyon was still feeling his run at Christmas and Arctic Fire also scoped bad at Christmas so he also possibly wasn't at his best. I also didn't like the way Townend never even attempted to make the running when Nichols Canyon clearly is a horse who jumps superbly and can put his rivals under pressure from the front.

I think I put it up in the Cheltenham chat thread but I also backed Identity Thief e/w after the Ryanair at Christmas. He traveled all over Nichols Canyon and will appreciate the sounder surface more than him. Also he's massively progressive having only hitting the track for the first time just over a year ago and could well improve past him.

I don't think Faugheen really has a chance of being beaten unless Nichols Canyon makes the running like he did in the Morgiana. Unfortunately the yard won't allow the pair to fight for the lead and Nichols Canyon will likely be forced to track Faugheen which clearly doesn't suit the horse when he jumps so well from the front. My win bets aren't looking good but I think Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief are the two next best and hopefully will fill the places. With the potential for more improvement Identity Thief still looks a good e/w bet or a nice price in the w/o Faugheen market.

Well that makes him more interesting to me, because his form on better ground isn't as good as his form on soft however he has had less opportunity to show his best form on better ground.

You make a good point about running styles as I completely agree that Nicholls Canyon would be best from the front (I can't underestimate how gutted I was when he took a lead in last year's Neptune) but like you say it won't happen and if he stayed alongside Faugheen I again think it would tee things up for a closer to pick up the pieces once more. 

[Aidymac]

I guess time will tell lads but I wouldn't be a fan of Identity Thief at all. Battled very hard to win the Fighting Fifth against Top Notch and although travelled all over Nichols Canyon, when push came to shove, NC stayed on the stronger and you need a horse that can battle coming up the Cheltenham hill, not a horse that goes out like a light when travelling like a dream. I think Mullins will have the 1-2-3 again this season, in my view NC and AF will fight it out for 2nd.

[Blazing Bailey]

Fair enough, the game is all about opinions.

[beaker1]

Faugheeen is OUT of the Champion Hurdle after picking up an injury!!

[arsenalfh]

Terrible news for connections and I hope the horse makes a full recovery but on the plus side my two ante post bets have come back to life...

[Blazing Bailey]

Annie Power now the short priced favourite for the race. I think that's too short myself but there isn't a standout candidate left in the race.

[Aidymac]

What a sickener! I think it has really spoiled the race. Of course, we can now have a proper bet as it is competitive, but we want to see the superstars win the big races. Shame! Now, it is wide open for me. Two miles Annie will get of course, but she is probably a bit better over further? I'd be against Arctic Fire at that price, only ever won 1 Grade 1 but of course was 2nd to Faugheen in this last year. Nichols Canyon would be the bet for me at the prices, but a whole host of what were outsiders like Peace & Co, The New One, MTOY etc all come into the equation now. Wide open, fascinating race. I still believe Annie should have a go in the World Hurdle. Mullins is already heavy handed in the Champion with Arctic and Canyon, has the mares covered with Vroum Vroum Mag, so have a crack at the World with Annie and that also saves the cost of the supplementation?

[BillyHills]

I think its about Rich Ricci, not Mullins Aidy.

He only has Sempre Medici who is not good enough. 

Vroom Vroom can take the Mares Hurdle instead of AP and she can go for the Champion. I bet Ruby would pick her if she went that route over Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire.

If i was Ricci i would go for the Champion, as you say its wide open now so why not and do they really care about the supplement fee.

[Aidymac]

12 hours ago, BillyHills said:

I think its about Rich Ricci, not Mullins Aidy.

He only has Sempre Medici who is not good enough. 

Vroom Vroom can take the Mares Hurdle instead of AP and she can go for the Champion. I bet Ruby would pick her if she went that route over Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire.

If i was Ricci i would go for the Champion, as you say its wide open now so why not and do they really care about the supplement fee.

Why didn't they run Annie in the Champion Hurdle in 2014 then Graham? Ricci had no runner in the race at all and he ran her in the World Hurdle. Mullins only had the Fly to go to battle with.

She is a 6 time winner over two miles, but all those wins were on soft or heavy ground. She is more of a stayer than a speed merchant and on good faster ground at Cheltenham, I don't think she would win a Champion Hurdle. If it comes up soft, she could though.

People go on as if Rich Ricci likes to throw money around as if there is no tomorrow too. That isn't the case. He is a shrewd businessman, and when he spends he likes to get a return on his investment. 

So the dilemma is.. Will Ricci run Annie in the Champion Hurdle which runs the risk of the yard winning just the Mares out of the Mares/Champion/World. Or, will common sense prevail and will Ricci give Mullins a chance of landing all three races by sending Annie to the World? Mullins already has the FAV and 2nd FAV in the Champion.

[richard-westwood]

Time for my annual supreme novices and champion double ...lol ...manahed to land it twice over the past 6 yrs paying 550 pts and 1040 pts ..  so well worth an attempt and makes the fest that bit more exciting ....gotta back now cos value is dwindling fast 

Supreme novices 

After looking at min closely I think there has been a lot of hype over the mullins horse ....yes hes progressive and you have to respect any mullins horse  ...but hes no better currently than altior or yorkhill for that matter and altior especially has dcope still for vast imperovement and I know trainer is very very confident altior will not fear min come the day ..   yorkhill too hss been overlooked but has done nothing wrong and he too would be no surprise winner yet hes three times the price !! .  Of the fav ....so im goin to take on min in the first leg with those two 

Altior     5/1 boyles

Yorkhill  10/1 boyles 

Now on to champion hurd ....I norm look for somethin big priced for a chance at a big win ....everything was seemingly revolving around faugheen but now thats gone and enter annie power who has to have a good chance given overall profile but for me and people may frown at this im staggered that ..the new one has been overlooked and is available at 10/1!! ....has looked as good as ever this year including lto where arguably he looks better than ever !!...I think he would have given faugheen a run anyway ...now that ones dropped out and annie power hasnt got the miles fitness on the clock this year to take on a 100% fit new one ....then I think at 8 yr old the new one can quite easily spring a surprise here and bring the bacon home ....ew bets to be safe as ecen ew returns could be decent ....good luck everyone 

the new one    10/1 boyles

2 x 10pt ew doubles 

 

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10163448/nico-de-boinville-keen-on-altiors-cheltenham-festival-chances

http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/40462/the-new-one-does-enough-for-champion-hurdle-trial-gains-at-haydock

Edited February 18, 2016 by richard-westwood

[Aidymac]

I thought The New One made very hard work of his two wins so far this season Richard, certainly didn't look impressive anyways. Beat Stephanie Frances 2 lengths, a horse who has won at Listed level. Finished 7 lengths off Faugheen but only 3/4 length ahead of Hargam that day and beat Rayvin Black by 2 lengths last time out, a horse who has won a Class 2 handicap at Sandown.. Has to improve a lot to win the Champion for me, but with Faugheen out of the race, a lot of these "Outsiders" certainly do have to be considered now. 

[richard-westwood]

10 minutes ago, Aidymac said:

I thought The New One made very hard work of his two wins so far this season Richard, certainly didn't look impressive anyways. Beat Stephanie Frances 2 lengths, a horse who has won at Listed level. Finished 7 lengths off Faugheen but only 3/4 length ahead of Hargam that day and beat Rayvin Black by 2 lengths last time out, a horse who has won a Class 2 handicap at Sandown.. Has to improve a lot to win the Champion for me, but with Faugheen out of the race, a lot of these "Outsiders" certainly do have to be considered now. 

Trainer says hes never ever had this horse better than hes got him now and just wants to get him to fest in one piece .....if thats true hes rated 171 rpr at best and trainer would know .....only a completely fit annie power could  even come close to that and bear in mind since april 2014 hes run 9 times and won 7 !!! ....unbelievable record ....dont think he would have liked heavy last time but still ran around 7 secs outside standard adjusted  which puts him smack on target now for a shot at the standard time on better ground ... ideally g/s .....I think his price is unreal ....fab value .....id be disappointed if hes out the frame at least 

[Blazing Bailey]

I could see him being involved for a place but I'm really not sure that he jumps well enough to win. At the business end he is noticeably jumping right, especially since the kissing spine diagnosis. If he can sort that out though he is a player.

[BillyHills]

Quote

Why didn't they run Annie in the Champion Hurdle in 2014 then Graham?

Rich Ricci said it was because he couldn't get Ruby to get off the Fly

Fcuk knows what will happen, always thought it was too early to get serious about Cheltenham, how many horses we lost this last couple of weeks and how many more in the next month!

[Aidymac]

4 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Rich Ricci said it was because he couldn't get Ruby to get off the Fly

Fcuk knows what will happen, always thought it was too early to get serious about Cheltenham, how many horses we lost this last couple of weeks and how many more in the next month!

Pure carnage mate. I like to have a flutter on big prices antepost for small money, but those who had thousands on Faugheen antepost, I feel for them!

[Blazing Bailey]

4 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Rich Ricci said it was because he couldn't get Ruby to get off the Fly

Fcuk knows what will happen, always thought it was too early to get serious about Cheltenham, how many horses we lost this last couple of weeks and how many more in the next month!

I say that I will never get involved ante post every year but it never happens!

[Jimmy2shoes]

1 hour ago, Blazing Bailey said:

I say that I will never get involved ante post every year but it never happens!

I refuse to get involved anymore in Anti Post betting, reason being i have a kitchen drawer full of various burns creams, it took almost 30 years for the penny to drop, but it did drop.

It's just not worth the risk, anything can happen OFF the course.

[Aidymac]

For anyone that does fancy Identity Thief, Henry De Bromhead and Andrew Lynch sound extremely bullish about his chances. Lynch reckons he will be very hard to beat.

 

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-champion-hurdle-positive-bulletin-issued-for-champion-fancy-identity-thief/2036256/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

[Aidymac]

ARCTIC FIRE IS OUT OF THE FESTIVAL!

 

Jaysus!

[BillyHills]

Your joking! Its unbelievable.

[Aidymac]

1 minute ago, BillyHills said:

Your joking! Its unbelievable.

Well, Annie is deffo going Champion now anyways! Bookmakers must be quids in already between antepost bets on Annie for the Mares, Faugheen and AF for the Champion, Moon Racer for the Supreme etc.

[BillyHills]

All this has taken the gloss off the race for me. I like champions and horses who rattle up three-four timers. People thought Quevega winning every year was a bit boring but it just goes to show how hard it is just to get to Cheltenham, then you have to run well, then you have to win. Quevega did it 6 times and i thought Faugheen could win at least 3 Champions, he still might be they think he's a fragile sort so maybe not.

Its not good that we don't know for sure what race Annie Power or Vautour are running in. They could be the favourite for the two biggest races of the week and we are not sure if they are running.