BillyHills Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Two jump meetings but i'm struggling to get a grip with Warwick, i suppose we should follow Richard Johnson chasing his 200th winner. His mount in the last will be long odds on but has to be his best ride. At Exeter we have 3 intriguing races to look at, my Nap runs in the 250 and is discussed below. In the 320 we have a clash between 2 novices. The fav is Captain Chaos who ran poorly last time but in a hot race. He has been rated 141 for his efforts so far, so an above average sort who should be winning these races. Firsty is the Nicholls debutant, he ran in France and finished second to Box Office, now with Jonjo. Third horse was Forest Bihan. They have both ran a few races in Britain and are rated between 135 and 140 so on a line through them Firsty should be of similar ability. Strictly that would give the Nicholls runner the edge as he gets 7lbs here but the catch is that he last ran in Nov 2014, so wheres he been since then? Also the Skelton team were going through a sticky patch the last time the fav ran so we can possibly expect a better display here. The long distance chase is a nice handicap and i like Return Spring. I time him up in the Welsh National but didn't go on the gluey ground. I thought he would act on it to be honest but the trainer has said we can ignore that run. he likes Exeter and its a bit better underhoof today, he must go close. Nap: 250 Exeter: Midnight Jazz 4/1 bet365 / skybet Interesting race and they make Pemba the hot favourite for winning a rubbish race at Catterick, her win before that she finished alone. She ha been given a fair mark of 120 for her handicap debut but still, she hasn't beat anything as yet. She does get the 4yo allowance which is useful it has to be said. Midnight Jazz won 2 competitive novice hurdles last season and ended up being 3rd in a Listed contest behind Stephanie Frances. This season she has been 3rd to Blue Buttons in Listed company and last time out was 4th to Lily Waugh at Cheltenham in a Class 2 handicap. Its very solid form which ever way you want to slice it and must be the value at the prices today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Good luck with the placepot BH ! I couldn't find any decent EW shots today........the 3.20 at Exeter has a lovely 'shape' for an EW bet with 2 fancied ones and everything else at big prices.......BUT there's only 8 runners and you'd probably get stuffed with NR at some point before race-time If 8 go to post then Bindon Mill at 12/1 looks the EW selection to go for - has already run OK at the track and didn't get home last time at Chepstow, drops back in trip today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Just on that theme.......the 2.10 at Warwick is my idea of a bad race for EW punting There are 15 runners.......too many. Only 20% of the field will pay out EW ! ......and you have 5 horses at 10/1 or under.......which I consider too short for EW betting but with 5 of them it's fairly likely they'll take all 3 places Effectively you're taking on 5 horses......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 355 exe devon national bang open race . Lots in with chances if they can return to old form but with lots out of sorts ive class rated this one to see who hhas the class to even get round !! armedanddangerous 245 finish the story 242 at 14/1 and 16/1 theyll do in a wide open race 2 x 2 pt ew singles arsenalfh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 1 hour ago, Trotter said: Just on that theme.......the 2.10 at Warwick is my idea of a bad race for EW punting There are 15 runners.......too many. Only 20% of the field will pay out EW ! ......and you have 5 horses at 10/1 or under.......which I consider too short for EW betting but with 5 of them it's fairly likely they'll take all 3 places Effectively you're taking on 5 horses......... and 3 of the ones at under 10/1 fill the places ! a good race to leave alone if you're an EW punter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 27 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 355 exe devon national bang open race . Lots in with chances if they can return to old form but with lots out of sorts ive class rated this one to see who hhas the class to even get round !! armedanddangerous 245 finish the story 242 at 14/1 and 16/1 theyll do in a wide open race 2 x 2 pt ew singles Finish The Story is my nap of the day. Personal best against Golden Chieftain on his penultimate start despite getting into a battle down the back straight (looks a bit better than the bare form) and that rival has seriously franked the form since. Pulled up the last day but went way too hard from the front on heavy ground and can be excused. I can see him going well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Finish The Story given another poor ride today. Jockey took the lead from Saroque down the back and went for home far too early at a stiff track in these conditions. 3k traded at 1.8 but he didn't have the legs to even finish the race and was pulled up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Another N/R in the 2pm at Lingfield leaving a field of 7 - So once again only wages for 1st & 2nd Coincidence ? http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/26-02-2016/lingfield-park/result/712807/ladbrokes-handicap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I'm getting paranoid now about these 8 runner races and it cost me a EW collect this afternoon I was waiting until the last minute to back Bindon Mill (see post above) in case there was a NR and a couple of minutes before the 'off'' the price collapsed from 12/1 to 7/1 so I gave up and didn't bother. Finished a neck 2nd....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Brilliant again from BH, the Placepot King have to wait for the payout to be declared but I reckon it's 4 winning lines ? well done !......... BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 48 quid a line ...nice pay out BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 (edited) Some Gamble on Evan William's only runner on the card in the last, Paul Moloney's only ride too Exeter! Edited February 26, 2016 by Jimmy2shoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 On ya GO! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 7 hours ago, BillyHills said: Two jump meetings but i'm struggling to get a grip with Warwick, i suppose we should follow Richard Johnson chasing his 200th winner. His mount in the last will be long odds on but has to be his best ride. At Exeter we have 3 intriguing races to look at, my Nap runs in the 250 and is discussed below. In the 320 we have a clash between 2 novices. The fav is Captain Chaos who ran poorly last time but in a hot race. He has been rated 141 for his efforts so far, so an above average sort who should be winning these races. Firsty is the Nicholls debutant, he ran in France and finished second to Box Office, now with Jonjo. Third horse was Forest Bihan. They have both ran a few races in Britain and are rated between 135 and 140 so on a line through them Firsty should be of similar ability. Strictly that would give the Nicholls runner the edge as he gets 7lbs here but the catch is that he last ran in Nov 2014, so wheres he been since then? Also the Skelton team were going through a sticky patch the last time the fav ran so we can possibly expect a better display here. The long distance chase is a nice handicap and i like Return Spring. I time him up in the Welsh National but didn't go on the gluey ground. I thought he would act on it to be honest but the trainer has said we can ignore that run. he likes Exeter and its a bit better underhoof today, he must go close. Nap: 250 Exeter: Midnight Jazz 4/1 bet365 / skybet Interesting race and they make Pemba the hot favourite for winning a rubbish race at Catterick, her win before that she finished alone. She ha been given a fair mark of 120 for her handicap debut but still, she hasn't beat anything as yet. She does get the 4yo allowance which is useful it has to be said. Midnight Jazz won 2 competitive novice hurdles last season and ended up being 3rd in a Listed contest behind Stephanie Frances. This season she has been 3rd to Blue Buttons in Listed company and last time out was 4th to Lily Waugh at Cheltenham in a Class 2 handicap. Its very solid form which ever way you want to slice it and must be the value at the prices today. Well in again Sir Placepot of placepot land BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 Cheers chaps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Don't have a bet on yet but sure makes you wonder why they cant give away Boxing Shadows in the 7:15 at Wolves What do they know that gives them the confidence in pushing out the price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Eland Ally being smashed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Give us a Belle wins for first time since April 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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