Trull House Stud Mares Novice Hurdle - Thursday 17th

[BillyHills]

Trull House Stud Mares Novice Hurdle - Thursday 17th

[BillyHills]

Preview

Verdict:

Looks like we have a decent race for the first Mares Novice Hurdle at the Festival. Willie Mullins holds the key as he does in all of the novice races this year and Limini will be very short to continue her winning run. She hasn’t beat anything of note yet and I’m not sure is anywhere near the finished article as far as her jumping is concerned so taking a skinny price at this stage might not be the best bet in the world. Bloody Mary also has a bit to prove in this country so the solid option appears to be Smart Talk who has bags of experience and seems to be still improving. The sponsor’s Chocca Wocca is an interesting runner at a bigger price for those who might be looking for a bit of value.

Selections:

Smart Talk 7/1 Skybet

Chocca Wocca EW 16/1 Betway

[beaker1]

With this being the inaugural running of this particular contest, we have no trends to go on but if the mares’ hurdle on Tuesday is anything to go by then it could be that the Irish have the stronger hand having filled five of the first six places.

The ante-post favourite has long been Willie Mullins’ Limini and the talk of her being her connections’ best chance of the week have only further increased the expectation around her. The Mullins team have obviously had a great week and it would be no surprise to see her go close but she is short enough at 4/5 considering she has only had two starts over hurdles. In fairness she looks pretty versatile in terms of ground and is definitely the pick of the Irish battalion.

Gordon Elliott saddles Whistle Dixie who was third behind Limini when last seen in January but she showed good form on a sounder surface last Spring and it could be that she improves for the sounder surface here. She clearly has plenty to find with the market leader but the drop back to two miles and better ground could bring her closer to that rival, especially in receipt of 5lb.

On this side of the Irish Sea, Nicky Henderson has long had a reputation for mares and he saddles three runners here, with two of them Robins Reef and Chocca Wocca both owned by the race’s sponsor. The latter was a smart bumper performer last year and overcame a lengthy absence to win at the first time of asking over hurdles at Market Rasen in February. The ground was probably slow enough for her that day and you would expect her to benefit physically from that run.

Henderson also saddles Bloody Mary who was a multiple winner in her native France and overcame testing conditions to win at Taunton on her British debut. She is not the biggest but she looks to have a good engine and she really knuckled down last time to put the race to bed. She had form on good ground in bumpers in France and despite also conceding 5lb to all but two of her rivals, she looks the pick of the Henderson trio.

However, it could be Brian Ellison’s Smart Talk who gives the favourite most to think about having accounted for Limini’s stablemate Morning Run at Doncaster last time. She has now won four of her last five starts over hurdles and her run on quick ground at Doncaster last time was very impressive. On official ratings at least she is top of the tree and more importantly she has had plenty of racing so she should be battle-hardened. Having won over further than two miles I imagine she will be ridden prominently to make use of her stamina and it may be a case of whether the others can catch her.

Overall, the vibes suggest that Limini is likely to follow in the footsteps of her stablemates Vroum Vroum Mag and Annie Power and find her way to the Winners’ Enclosure but Smart Talk and Bloody Mary can ensure she doesn’t get everything her own way.

Shortlist

Limini

Smart Talk

Bloody Mary

[Blazing Bailey]

I am going to echo the two judges above and side with Smart Talk.

Limini hasnt convinced me with her jumping albeit they clearly think a lot of her at home but even so I am happy to take her on with Smart Talk.

I thought she ran really well LTO at Doncaster, absolutely tanking along at the shorter trip on good ground and the second Lily Waugh is a good yardstick herself. I cant find the article but I am told that the race was run in a quick time as well and I think she is value at the current odds.

The other horse I am interesting as an outsider away from the front two is Tea in Transvaal. She has enough to find with the top two but I think she is another level above the rest and having been proven at this track and under these conditions she is an interesting bet in one of the alternative markets or maybe within a tricast.

[arsenalfh]

Limini might be top class but she shapes the market for a nice e/w bet and Smart Talk looks like one of the bets of the festival when you might be able to get 2/1 on the place part in the morning. Not only does she set the standard on form but she is progressive so it's hard to see her not hitting the frame with not many looking capable of getting involved. The Henderson trio are completely unexposed but have a lot to find with Smart Talk. Tea In Transvaal looks the only other runner really capable of getting involved at a decent price but I think Limini and Smart Talk will fill 2 of the places and there's a chance one of Nicky's might be able to improve past her and fill the last place so I'll stick with Smart Talk.

[Blazing Bailey]

Following on from my previous post I have just checked the markets again and I think 8/1 with Hills for Tea In Transvaal without both Limini and Smart Talk is very big.

[richard-westwood]

Liminis connections are of the opinion he won't be beaten ....but I think tea in transvaal might be nonpushover ....ran a cracker against devilment here in fast time then supposedly improved last time ...only negative is longnlayiff but he has run well aftervlay off in past ...at 22/1 he just looks value bet

Tea in transvaal 5 pts ew 22/1 bet365

[arsenalfh]

Smart Talk very disappointing.