Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 15th

[BillyHills]

Supreme Novices Hurdle

[BillyHills]

Supreme Preview

Verdict:

Punters will be hoping Min can get the ball rolling for the Irish in the opener; it could be the start of a very good day for the raiders. I cant get any enthusiasm at the current prices, Min is undoubtedly a useful sort but I fail to see how his form is any better than two or three others at this point in time.

My opening bet will be on Altior, I like the fact that he has had four starts over hurdles and seems to be learning all the time. I also think it’s a plus to have experience of the Cheltenham hill and he seems to have plenty of stamina. As an alternative Supersundae could run well at a decent price. He’s got lots of improvement in him and is worth a nibble at around 20/1.

Selections:

Altior 9/2 Ladbrokes

Supersundae EW 20/1 William Hill

[PeterX]

It's the Supreme Novices Hurdle, one of my favourite races of the whole week and it often gets the week off to a flyer. 

First things first, I will not be backing Min. Not because I dislike the horse but because the price is terrible. That's ok though because it makes the market for afew others. Min in France didnt do anything, didn't have good form. In two starts for Mullins he's won a maiden hurdle and won a race sent off at 1/7. He's jumped well and ran with the choke out. Of the recent Mullins horses that have won this race this is the weakest on form and also the shortest price. A lot of people have seemingly backed it at big prices even before its first run in Ireland. They couldn't have been backing it on its French form so they're backing it because Ricci bought it and it's trained by Mullins. Maybe because it's by the same side as Douvan, Walkinthepalk. Either way it's only guesswork, not to say it can't win but in reality the horse should be around the 8/1 - 10/1 mark for this.

Nicky Hendersons horse Altior is a decent sort, he's battle hardened and experienced over hurdles having 4 runs, winning them all. He's won at Cheltenham before and is progressing, he bolted up in a decent race at Kempton last time out and the form has worked out. We know he'll go on the ground, he'll love the strong gallop he'll get here. There aren't many negatives for this horse and it's hard to see him out the frame.

Tombstone should improve with the likely strong gallop but I'm not sure he's good enough. Beuvar dair has been running well but he's a young horse and this could come abit soon. Yorkhill would have to have a good chance if turning up here but appears to be heading towards the Neptune. He's a Grade1 winner over this trip and the form of that has worked out well. 

Silver Concorde is a 16/1 shot for this, a previous Champion Bumper winner but still a maiden over hurdles. The horse that beat him last time out by daylight is also 16/1, Supasundae for Henry De Bromhead. Supasundae makes appeal at a decent price. He's by Galileo and should improve for the better ground himself, he ran well in the bumper here last year and also beat Yanworth in a bumper. He looked very decent last time but obviously is lightly raced, he should improve and at 16/1 is a decent each way proposition.

 

Verdict: I'm backing these two both each way 1/4 odds first 3. I'll be surprised if Altior doesn't atleast place and I'm confident I'll get the win.

Altior - 4/1 E/W Bet365

Supasundae - 16/1 E/W Bet365

[beaker1]

1.30 Cheltenham – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Having landed the last three renewals with Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan, the triumvirate of Ruby Walsh, Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci clearly must be feared. To win a Festival race in three successive years with three different horses is an almost unheard of achievement and is a massive plus for their runner in this year’s contest, Min.

With 17 of the last 19 Supremes going the way of a last time out winner, this is a strong trend and one not to be ignored. Although a lot of the horses running who had been beaten on their previous start were no-hopers, the likes of Cue Card, Cousin Vinny and Marcel were all sent off favourite and failed to overcome this distinct negative. Six of this year’s field failed to win on their latest start including Tombstone, Bellshill and Silver Concorde.

Irish-trained runners have a fantastic record in the Supreme having landed 10 of the last 15 renewals. Taking it a step further, the market has generally been a strong guide and half of those winners were also favourites. This is another tick in the box for Min while the fancied horses from Britain, Altior and Buveur D’Air, have something to prove.

Despite having a rough time of it for a good few years, French-breds have really started to come to the fore, taking 3 of the last 5 renewals. Only three of this year’s line-up hail from across the Channel which is a step in the right direction for Min, Buveur D’Air and Petit Mouchoir. Taking this a step further, each of the last two winners were second season novices having been beaten in France, a trait shared once again by Min.

Although seen as a stamina test at the trip, the Supreme has surprisingly leant itself to those ridden prominently. In recent years, Vautour and Champagne Fever made virtually all the running while Douvan and Cinders And Ashes were both in the front rank turning for home. We have become accustomed to Ruby Walsh going from the front in recent times and this should be no different with Min who has tended to race freely (sometimes overly so) in his last couple of starts.

In recent years, the fancied runners have prevailed but in 5 of the previous 6 years, the winner was sent off at double-figure odds. With the possible changing of the tide, this isn’t as bulletproof as it once was but if you fancy one at a bigger price, you certainly shouldn’t be put off.

With the Champion Bumper being one of the toughest tests of stamina in bumpers, it comes as little surprise that the previous season’s premier National Hunt flat race has a solid bearing on the Supreme. 4 of the last 13 winners had finished in the top 5 in the Champion Bumper and whilst it seems difficult to double-up (only Champagne Fever has managed it in the last 20 years), those that ran with credit seem to have a solid record. None of the top 5 last year take their place here but Supasundae wasn’t beaten far into sixth having been far too keen early on.

An over-riding factor that has become apparent in recent years is that you don’t want a horse that began their career on the flat. No winner since Ebaziyan in 2007 has started their careers on the level while only 1 out of 48 runners who have come from the flat have been placed. Only Penglai Pavilion of this year’s line-up started out on the flat which is a big black mark for him.

The lack of a recent run is a concern when it comes to the Supreme and only one winner since 1993 had obliged having not run in the calendar year. This is a particular concern for Altior as he has proven to be very keen in his races and hasn’t been since running at Kempton on Boxing Day. Although Min has been seen this year, he has still been off the track since early January which would rate as a negative given how freely he has been in his races to date.

With the Supreme regarded as a stern test of stamina, it is somewhat of a surprise that those to have raced over further than 2m2f have a relatively poor record here. Only Champagne Fever and Al Ferof had run beyond 2m2f under Rules from the last 11 winners. Five of this year’s field fall down at this hurdle including Bellshill and Tombstone.

Unsurprisingly, Min has proven to be a very strong pick on the trends and comes out well clear of the rest of the pack. He only falls down on a couple of things, one being the potentially ailing trend of being in double-figures and the fact he has been off the track for a while. The fact that his profile matches so closely to each of the last two winners can’t fail to impress and while question marks can be raised about what he has achieved this season, the end result cannot be faulted. He could do with settling better in what will undoubtedly be his toughest test to date but Willie Mullins singled him out as his one for the Supreme back in October, lofty expectations given the embarrassment of riches Closutton has at their disposal.

Altior isn’t the strongest trends horse by some way but as the highest-rated horse in the field, he warrants a great deal of respect. His demolition of Open Eagle was mightily impressive at Kempton and, unlike the market leader, he has shown he has the minerals to tough it out in a ding-dong battle when staying on well over course and distance at the Open Meeting in November. It is a concern that he has been off the track for so long but he is far from inexperienced having had four runs in the space of just over two months early in the campaign and should arrive here as a fresh horse.

One that outperforms his odds when it comes to the stats is Charbel from the Kim Bailey yard. The five-year-old was a hefty purchase on the back of his fourth-place finish in the Punchestown Champion Bumper last year. He looked a decent prospect over hurdles and ran within 3 lengths of Neptune favourite Yanworth in a Grade 2 at Ascot (albeit as the winner was eased down). Arguably, his best performance came last time out in the Scottish Supreme Trial where he made every yard and finished well clear of the rest of the field. His front-running tendencies will likely help him out here.

Another of the Brits attempting to halt the charge of the Irish is Buveur D’air who comes here officially 1lb better than Min. He also finished 2 ½ lengths ahead of Altior in a Listed bumper last year, although he was in receipt of 10lb, so although he may not have had the most glamorous of build-ups to The Festival, he is definitely here on merit. He destroyed the potentially smart Wait For Me on his hurdles debut at Newbury back in November and followed up with another facile victory at Huntingdon in January to finish off his preparation for this. His running style however does mean that he will likely be waited with which hasn’t been the greatest of plans over the years.

With the Irish so dominant in recent times, it is a bit of a surprise that Min aside, on paper, their challenge doesn’t look to be as strong as it could be. Bellshill has been rerouted here instead of the Neptune, a somewhat puzzling decision given a drop in trip didn’t seem the obvious move. He was a convincing winner of a Grade 1 at Navan in January but was beaten out of sight in the Deloitte a month later. His stable did send out a 1-2 last year with Shaneshill, holding a similar profile, finishing runner-up to Douvan so it may be the case that he is in here for place money only.

Supasundae looks the most interesting of the Irish contingent outside of the favourite and he does perform pretty well on the trends. He would have performed even better  had he finished a place closer in last year’s Champion Bumper, but he was made to pay for being too keen early on when finishing sixth. Upon winning at Leopardstown at Christmas, the Supreme was mooted as his seasonal target and not many could disagree on the back of his blistering performance. He could well outrun his odds here and we shouldn’t forget that he comfortably accounted for Yanworth in an Ascot bumper last season.

Shortlist

Min

Altior

Charbel

Supasundae

[owenclass]

Buveur D air to win Supreme 5/1 paddy power

Im hearing good things about this horse and the ground should suit him but he will have to race well to beat the favourite

[Blazing Bailey]

I have written this up AP in my thread however I thought I would put my final selections on here.

 

The two I want to be on are Min (5/2) and Buveur D'air (15/2). The case for Min is fairly straight forward, he has jumped and travelled really well in his races and whilst he has been keen he has still appeared to have plenty left at the business end. The Mullins camp are very bullish about his chances and his form has worked out well too. He has been short enough up until now however he is now starting to get to a fair enough price.

 

Buveur D'air is one I am less sure about but my whole case is based on his Newbury win. He posted a good figure in winning that race first time out when he powered clear from decent rivals. The way he powered clear looked tailor made for the finish at Cheltenham. He then went to Huntingdon (a track which is the complete opposite to Cheltenham) where he was impressive enough on looks but took a backwards step on ratings. Normally I would have to reconsider his winning rating at Newbury however given the very different test I am happy enough to over look that. Fehily is on board, I can see him improving for the day and I can see him running well above his price.

 

Of the rest, I am not convinced by Altior's last figure around Kempton, having run to a similar level on his previous two starts (around the same as his stablemate) one of which was at Cheltenham. That improvement almost came from nowhere considering he had 3 previous runs before that. Strictly on ratings he should be my pick but something just doesn't sit right with me. Similar compliments apply to Charbel who seemed to improve for another sharp right handed track at Musselburgh so again I am wary of how true that rating is when looking at the conditions today. Tombstone is another who has shown a good level of form and would be up there on ratings but he has been beaten now by two horses who aren't considered good enough to win this.

[arsenalfh]

People have been dismissing Min's form after Attribution and Gurteen flopped recently but the latter was found lame and the former has a questionable temperament. Min is actually only 2lbs off Altior on RPRs and despite only having 2 runs for Mullins. He is the most beautiful jumper and the current prices look very very fair.

The Henderson pair are the main danger a long with Charbel who was an expensive purchase for some smaller owners. He's progressing and won a race working out well easily at Musselburgh and I wouldn't put you off him at the prices. I couldn't have some of the Irish horses like Tombstone who has had a few opportunities at Grade 1 level and is starting to look a bit exposed while Bellshill hasn't beaten anything of note all season and flopped badly in the Deloitte. I like Supasundae and think he is a fabulous prospect but at the current prices he can't be a bet with concerns about his jumping. This is a massive step forward.

Min @ 11/4 Betfred

[Blazing Bailey]

Well done Altior backers! Absolutely bolted up!

[arsenalfh]

Min made a few mistakes but was by a better horse. Altior was super impressive.

[richard-westwood]

Well that's a nice start ....had a nice bet on Altior and my big double is all go now if the new one can win the champ hurdle its sbout 600pts if it places around 100pts ....c'mon you beaut

Edited March 15, 2016 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

Good luck mate!

 

Cracking start, 1-0

[richard-westwood]

On 18/02/2016, 11:15:57, richard-westwood said:

Time for my annual supreme novices and champion double ...lol ...manahed to land it twice over the past 6 yrs paying 550 pts and 1040 pts ..  so well worth an attempt and makes the fest that bit more exciting ....gotta back now cos value is dwindling fast 

Supreme novices 

After looking at min closely I think there has been a lot of hype over the mullins horse ....yes hes progressive and you have to respect any mullins horse  ...but hes no better currently than altior or yorkhill for that matter and altior especially has dcope still for vast imperovement and I know trainer is very very confident altior will not fear min come the day ..   yorkhill too hss been overlooked but has done nothing wrong and he too would be no surprise winner yet hes three times the price !! .  Of the fav ....so im goin to take on min in the first leg with those two 

Altior     5/1 boyles

Yorkhill  10/1 boyles 

Now on to champion hurd ....I norm look for somethin big priced for a chance at a big win ....everything was seemingly revolving around faugheen but now thats gone and enter annie power who has to have a good chance given overall profile but for me and people may frown at this im staggered that ..the new one has been overlooked and is available at 10/1!! ....has looked as good as ever this year including lto where arguably he looks better than ever !!...I think he would have given faugheen a run anyway ...now that ones dropped out and annie power hasnt got the miles fitness on the clock this year to take on a 100% fit new one ....then I think at 8 yr old the new one can quite easily spring a surprise here and bring the bacon home ....ew bets to be safe as ecen ew returns could be decent ....good luck everyone 

the new one    10/1 boyles

2 x 10pt ew doubles 

 

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10163448/nico-de-boinville-keen-on-altiors-cheltenham-festival-chances

http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/40462/the-new-one-does-enough-for-champion-hurdle-trial-gains-at-haydock

Well that's a nice start ....had a nice bet on Altior and my big double is all go now if the new one can win the champ hurdle its sbout 600pts if it places around 100pts ....c'mon you beaut !