Saturday Racing - Feb 20th (Inc. Ascot Chase)

[richard-westwood]

grounds playing a big part at the moment ...lots of horses even failing to get round ....gonna make for some interesting form lines going into chelt because i dont think they will hold up once the ground goes back to some normality .....average big race recently has been 30 secs below standard so bog like conditions and chelt races are averagely run in 4 secs outside standard ........huge difference but will most likely mean there will be some fab bets on horses that havent really shown their true colours of late so will be overpriced later once they get their conditions ...anyway back to this race 

silvinaco conti    99.56

ma filleille          99.54 

these two are a bit in front of the rest under these conditions ....silninaco conti is obviously coming to full speed now getting ready for the festival so youd expect a huge run now and at his best few are able to go with him but ma filleuille will be no push over with near optimal conditions ......has learned a lot over last 12 months and should be close to the real deal now so could easily be capable of giving silvinaco conti a run for his money .....decent prices on offer so ill try and squeeze a bit out 

silvinaco conti  6 pts win 3/1 boyles

ma filleille    4 pts win 7/1 bet365 

[BillyHills]

Put all the races for Saturday together.

 

2.40 Haydock : National Trial

 

Verdict:

I’m quite happy to take on the favourite Mountainous here, I just don’t think this is his track and represents poor value as a result. My main hope is Gas Line Boy for Jim Best, he was travelling supremely well last time here before coming down and you will need that type of horse in these conditions. My other choice is Broadway Buffalo; he was made favourite for this race last year and has done nothing wrong since. He has the right sort of weight and has had a nice break since his run in France and will be fresher than most for what will be a very tough test.

Selections:

Gas Line Boy 10/1 Ladbrokes

Broadway Buffalo 12/1 Bet365

 

[BillyHills]

3.35 Ascot: Betfair Ascot Chase

 

Verdict:

I have always been a fan of Dynaste and if anyone can get him back to his best then the Pipe’s can. He has been running poorly and I need to see some flicker of his old self before wading in. This leaves the way clear for Silviniaco Conti to get back to winning ways. I do think the shorter trip will be right up his street, especially at Ascot where you need to stay every yard. He loves soft ground and has a nice break since Kempton. An alternative bet would be the stable mate Vibrato Valtat. They have always thought he would be better over this kind of trip and some of his form this season is pretty solid. If he lines up he looks a decent each way bet at the current odds.

Selections:

Silviniaco Conti 3/1 Boylesports

Vibrato Valtat EW 7/1 Paddy Power

 

[Trotter]

34 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

 have always been a fan of Dynaste and if anyone can get him back to his best then the Pipe’s can. He has been running poorly and I need to see some flicker of his old self before wading in.

Apparently Dynaste has had a wind op since his last race.........well done to Pipe for telling us 'before' the race !

[richard-westwood]

Haydock national trial 

Mountainous    99.36 

Bishops road    99.32 

These teo are a bit clear of the field .....mountainous has obvious chances ...good level of form and heavily backed recently ..looks a worthy fav ....bishops road though looks incredible value at 20/1!! ....absolutely destroyed the field lto and skipped over the heavy ground that day so conditions no problem ...form looks good in context of this race 

Mountainous  5 pts win 7/1 sky

Bishops road  5 pts win 20/1 betv 

[BillyHills]

3 hours ago, Trotter said:

Apparently Dynaste has had a wind op since his last race.........well done to Pipe for telling us 'before' the race !

Yeah, mentioned that in the preview, but i think your being a big generous to say well done for telling us before the race. He was asked questions at the Betfair launch for the race. If he wasn't asked the question about his well being i doubt we wouldn't have known the wiser.

Not many wind ops actually work by the way, well not to the extent of improving them that much. Although to be fair it usually works best first time after a wind op especially in older horses. Needing them in the first place is more of a worry to me.

[richard-westwood]

16 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Haydock national trial 

Mountainous    99.36 

Bishops road    99.32 

These teo are a bit clear of the field .....mountainous has obvious chances ...good level of form and heavily backed recently ..looks a worthy fav ....bishops road though looks incredible value at 20/1!! ....absolutely destroyed the field lto and skipped over the heavy ground that day so conditions no problem ...form looks good in context of this race 

Mountainous  5 pts win 7/1 sky

Bishops road  5 pts win 20/1 betv 

im very keen on maybe taking the double on mountainous taking this and going on to win the grand national at around 300/1 !!.....this is the perfect trial and if he won this he will have performed twice fantastically well over extended distances ...guarnteed stayer .....perfect profile ......and if winning this would most likely be allocated a weight around 10-9 which would be unbelievably perfect for a horse with that profile .....just seems too good to miss 

[BillyHills]

Richard i'm not sure he will get a run off 142 this year.

He's 75th in the list of weights and only 40 can run, last year 140 just got in but we have had a record entry and so many better horses have been entered. 

Just wanted to point that out, the yard think he will run well at Aintree so the odds sound good! Good luck mate.

 

My 6 for the National

[richard-westwood]

8 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Richard i'm not sure he will get a run off 142 this year.

He's 75th in the list of weights and only 40 can run, last year 140 just got in but we have had a record entry and so many better horses have been entered. 

Just wanted to point that out, the yard think he will run well at Aintree so the odds sound good! Good luck mate.

 

My 6 for the National

its always a risk at this stage .......id only wager about 5 pts so if it lost its no big deal but if he wins well may be even penalised more .....theres always a lot of dropouts anyway .....and quite a few horses around the lower weights usually sneak in so id be surprised if he didnt sneak in off around 10-8....a lot of trainers enter horses on the off chance they will get a bit of form but if they are running poor then not worth the entry fees later ....just a waste of money ......just thinking if he does win and sneaks in national ...he would be smack in middle of sweet zone having perfect form for a national and having won the trial !!.....at 300/1  lol .....as good a speculative ante pst bet ive seen for a while especially it would pay around 1400 points for a 5 pt bet .......although hes got to win first ...at the mo they aint even getting round ..lol

[Trotter]

I wouldn't be that keen on Mountainous for the National to be honest

All his 6 wins under rules have been on Heavy ground (one on Soft) at either Ffos Las or Chepstow, both of which have the reputation of being really, really, Heavy, bogs basically

I think even over the National trip he might get outpaced on better ground and on a flat track........

still.........it's all about opinions !.........

 

 

[BillyHills]

1.50 Ascot: Reynoldstown Novice Chase

 

Verdict:

I’m keen on Minella Rocco at the prices and think one day he will show us what he is made of over fences. He may leave that for Cheltenham where he’s entered for both the National Hunt Chase and the RSA. Of the top three in the market I think Drumacoo needs to repeat his debut effort and looks a bit skinny to me. Vyta Du Roc has the best hurdling form and for whatever reason he didn’t show up at Doncaster last time. He has it to prove now but is the value bet in my eyes over his market rivals on this occasion.

Selections:

Minella Rocco 14/1 Skybet

Vyta Du Roc 3/1 Paddy Power

 

[BillyHills]

Quote

its always a risk at this stage .......id only wager about 5 pts so if it lost its no big deal but if he wins well may be even penalised more ..

Penalties don't count for the National from now on, the weights stay the same even if they won the Gold Cup! Thats why the two trials are this week and next week (Eider). Many Clouds is going down the Ballabriggs route and going to Kelso for his prep. I prefer horse not to run at Cheltenham but we will see.

[bartrum]

On 16 February 2016 12:21:40, richard-westwood said:

grounds playing a big part at the moment ...lots of horses even failing to get round ....gonna make for some interesting form lines going into chelt because i dont think they will hold up once the ground goes back to some normality .....average big race recently has been 30 secs below standard so bog like conditions and chelt races are averagely run in 4 secs outside standard ........huge difference but will most likely mean there will be some fab bets on horses that havent really shown their true colours of late so will be overpriced later once they get their conditions ...anyway back to this race 

silvinaco conti    99.56

ma filleille          99.54 

these two are a bit in front of the rest under these conditions ....silninaco conti is obviously coming to full speed now getting ready for the festival so youd expect a huge run now and at his best few are able to go with him but ma filleuille will be no push over with near optimal conditions ......has learned a lot over last 12 months and should be close to the real deal now so could easily be capable of giving silvinaco conti a run for his money .....decent prices on offer so ill try and squeeze a bit out 

silvinaco conti  6 pts win 3/1 boyles

ma filleille    4 pts win 7/1 bet365 

Richard, Nichols has made it clear that silvinaco will never run at Cheltenham again, he hates the place..... So he may still not be fully wound up as u expect. 

[BillyHills]

2.05 Haydock: Rendlesham Hurdle

 

Verdict:

It’s difficult to argue against Reve De Sivola on his favoured heavy ground, it was a decent run behind Thistlecrack at Ascot but then again that was his favourite track and it’s a bit sharper around here. I’m happy to take him on with At Fishers Cross, he was a very useful on his day and seemed to lose the plot at the beginning of last season, trainer Rebecca Curtis has done a good job getting him back on track and on his best form would win in this grade. It was a promising first run of the season in Ireland last time and needs to back that up here. Aubusson could outrun his price on a track he likes and could be an alternative selection and represents a bit of value.

Selections:

At Fishers Cross 9/2 Bet365

Aubusson 7/1 BetVictor

 

[Blazing Bailey]

I have serious trouble trusting Rebecca Curtis' horses. I know they have had problems this year but they never seem to run two good races in a row. 

[BillyHills]

Scoop 6

 

No winner of the Tote Scop6 last week so we have a Win Fund of £117,410 to start with. The Bonus prize went begging when the six lucky winners from the week before failed to find the winner of the Betfair Hurdle. The pot stands at a massive £919,281 which means punters are chasing a possible total jackpot of £1.25 Million.

This week’s action comes from Wincanton, Ascot and Haydock and the feature race is the Grade 1 Ascot Chase at 3.35.

 

Leg 1: 1.40 Wincanton

Plenty of small fields about today but not here, 16 runners line up for this 2m5f handicap hurdle. It’s low class stuff and very competitive and a chance is taken with Neil Mulholland’s runner Who’s Micky Brown. The 6yo was spotted making late progress here last time out and has been given a mark of 104 for his handicap debut. That looks quite lenient and the longer trip should suit. Bottom weight Karl Marx is a C/D winner and is well treated on his best form and could run well at a decent price.

Selection: Who’s Mickey Brown 11/2 Bet365 (Karl Marx)

 

Leg 2: 2.40 Haydock

The Betfred Grand National Trial over 3m4f in heavy ground, its about as testing as it can be at Haydock and this will take some getting. I like the Pipe horse Broadway Buffalo who was made favourite for this last year. He ran well at the Festival afterwards for todays pilot Katie Walsh and he goes in the conditions. Mountainous will be popular for Kerry Lee as will Cloudy Too who won here at the last meeting. Gas Line Boy was unlucky that day and he looks sure run well and loves it around here. He could be the one to challenge the selection in a very good renewal overall.

Selection: Broadway Buffalo 6/1 Betfair (Gas Line Boy)

 

Leg 3: 3.00 Ascot

Our first visit to Ascot and we get a chance to see the eagerly awaited return of Nicky Henderson’s Different Gravey. A very smart novice last term who won three races but bypassed the big festivals. He goes handicapping off 149 so wont find things easy on his seasonal debut. The mare Debdebdeb won well last time out at Kempton and looked to have improved, she gets in here with just 10st 3lbs and looks bound to be involved in the finish. Montdragon is chasing a hat-trick and will be a popular selection as will the Nicholls runner Sirabad who has been chasing recently.

Selection: Debdebdeb 5/1 Skybet (Different Gravey)

 

Leg 4: 3.15 Haydock

Another staying handicap hurdle and the last chance for some to qualify for the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham. You need to finish in the top six to get your ticket for the Festival and it’s interesting we have two Irish raiders entered. Both Woodford Island and Champagne James have to be respected although I’m more interested in Woodford Island as he has already qualified so is here to win the race rather than be placed. Top Billing carries 11st 12lbs for Nicky Richards and is a very classy customer while stable mate Isaacstown Lad is also worth a second look. Jonjo O’Neill’s horses are starting to run well again so Box Office has to enter calculations now going up in trip.

Selection: Woodford Island 5/1 Paddy Power (Top Billing)

 

Leg 5: 3.35 Ascot

The big race of the day and a clash between Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste over 2m5f. They have clashed a few times over 3m and it has to be said the Nicholls runner has got the better of that argument but Dynaste won over this sort of trip at the Cheltenham Festival when successful in the Ryanair. Dynaste has been out of sorts this season but has since had a wind operation, he’s best watched for now. Of the others Triolo D’Alene is a good horse but may just find this too short these days while Flemenstar make the trip over from Ireland and shouldn’t be ignored.

Selection: Silviniaco Conti 3/1 Betfair (Triolo D’Alene)

 

Leg 6: 4.10 Ascot

The final leg is a 3m handicap hurdle and one or two of these are switching back to hurdles after a spell over fences. Aigle De La See from the Henderson yard has had a poor season so far and failed to complete on his last two starts, he was a decent hurdler last season so connections will hope he can bounce back. What A Moment is worth keeping an eye on in his first handicap. He ran better than his finishing position suggests last time and now wears a hood and a tongue strap for the first time so expect some improvement. Royale Knight is aiming for the Grand National later in the year but ran well over hurdles last time and acts on the ground so could go well again.

Selection: What A Moment 5/1 Ladbrokes (Royale Knight)

 

[arsenalfh]

20 hours ago, Blazing Bailey said:

I have serious trouble trusting Rebecca Curtis' horses. I know they have had problems this year but they never seem to run two good races in a row. 

She seems to be one of the trainers I can never catch right along with David Pipe and Venetia Williams. Possibly Jonjo O'Neill too but his horses tend to come to life in spring with better ground.

I could be making too much out of this but I really think their horses are so in and out that they're hard to back. Anyone have some sort of theory on why this seems to be the case?

[beaker1]

1.15 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle.

This has the look of a thoroughly decent novices’ contest, and it’s one where quality has shone through in the past with six of the last nine winners having already won a Class 1 or 2 hurdle race. Duke Des Champs holds a first preference of the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock, so is unlikely to line up here, but another who carries the maximum penalty, YALA ENKI, surely holds a big chance.

Venetia Williams’ tough French import has done very well since coming to Britain, hammering Duke Des Champs on his Exeter debut and then finishing fifth in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock. He then defeated Westren Warrior and Ibis Du Rheu back over two and a half miles at Kempton and battled on well over three miles at Sandown to finish a close third to a pair of well-handicapped horses. The drop back once more to this intermediate trip can help this free-going sort who loves to dominate from the front and even though he has to give weight to many of his rivals, Yala Enki could have too much experience and staying power on this switch to novice company.

Big Chief Benny is a highly-rated five-year-old in the Alan King stable, but his win at Doncaster doesn’t look up to much form-wise. He’s finished 17 lengths behind Charmix and the same distance behind Buveur D’Air so far over hurdles, so whether he’ll be good enough is a question to be answered, even though you’d expect further improvement.

The step up to two and a half miles worked the oracle for Paul Nicholls’ Mr Mix and the stable was delighted with his development, so there’s no reason to expect his improvement to stop there. He dealt well with the bottomless ground at Taunton on his last start and in defeating Mountain Eagle and Miles To Milan, he registered a decent level of form so can’t be discounted. Nicholls won the race last year with Arpege D’Alene and has won the race three times in the last eight years, so he knows the type needed.

Nicky Henderson won this with the classy Finian’s Rainbow in 2010, and his Premier Bond is another horse who looks set to make a better chaser in future, but he’s already recorded good from over timber. His four and a half length win over William H Bonney in December looks better now after that rival won at Towcester this week and his closing second to stablemate O O Seven was an excellent effort. The step up in trip to two and a half miles should suit this six-year-old very well and he could be the one to challenge Yala Enki at the business end of the race.

Advice

YALA ENKI – 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet365)

 
1.50 Ascot – The Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 

A cracking little race on paper and one in which DRUMACOO ticks all the boxes. The seven-year-old had some eye-catching form in novice hurdles over in Ireland for Michael Hourigan and it was a tad bemusing that he was so weak in the market on his debut for Ben Pauling at Huntingdon in January. He absolutely sluiced up that day and left the 140-rated Fletchers Flyer trailing in his wake. The testing conditions that day certainly played to his strengths and although he won’t encounter anything quite as attritional here, the ground will again be on the soft side. He comes here in search of a five-timer and if he continues his steep upward curve, should have enough to take this contest.

His nearest rival will most likely be Onenightinvienna who has shown some good form over fences the last twice despite only managing to finish runner-up. He ran well in defeat at Cheltenham in December behind subsequent Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase winner Blaklion and arguably should have regained the winning thread at Kempton last time. He has an entry in the Grand National and that may explain his jumping in that contest as he jumped very big early on, suggesting that he may have been schooled over National-style fences. With the National weights already released, a win here wouldn’t affect his handicap mark, so he could be all systems go but the only thing that makes him second-best in my eyes is the form line through Fletchers Flyer. He only beat him just over a length back in November compared to the thirty-eight length defeat that Drumacoo inflicted on him.

With arguably the highest quality form in the book, Vyta Du Roc cannot be discounted by any means. The gallant grey landed a pair of Grade 2 novice hurdles last campaign and was runner-up in a pair of Grade 1s. It could also be mooted that he may have finished a lot closer in the Neptune but for a final fence blunder. However, he has shown far from his best form over fences so far, grounding out a narrow victory in a four-runner affair on his chasing debut before getting turned over at long odds-on by the 136-rated Bouvreuil next time out. Surprisingly, his jumping hasn’t been an issue as he hasn’t really made any mistakes so far but he just hasn’t had the same spark that we saw from him last year over hurdles. He just looks to be lazy during his race which is a massive concern. The step up to three miles could help but he didn’t particularly look like a stayer over the trip in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle last year. Although he finished second, he was well beaten and benefitted from a final flight fall from Alpha Des Obeaux. If you looked at last year’s form, he would be more than good enough, but I think he is on the short side giving what we have seen so far.

The remaining three runners are all entitled to their place in the field and not one of them could be classed as a no-hoper. Ballyalton was second to Faugheen in the Neptune back in 2014 and has returned this season in ok form. He was in the midst of mounting his challenge on debut at Warwick until unseating three out and finished a decent second at Market Rasen last time out. He has also been a chaser in the making and the step up in trip should certainly aid him given he is a winning Irish pointer. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to hit the heights of a couple of years ago though.

Le Mercurey looked to be going the right way as a chaser when landing back-to-back victories in the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase, albeit benefitting from a final fence fall from likely winner Amore Alato. However, he has gone off the boil somewhat and was never involved when well-fancied in the Sky Bet Chase last time out. A distinct leap of faith would be required with Minella Rocco whose jumping has left a lot to be desired in his three runs over fences so far. He entered this campaign as one of the leading lights in the novice chasing division but apart from an ok run at Haydock on his chasing debut, he has been very disappointing.

Advice

DRUMACOO – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Betfair)

 
2.05 Haydock – Betfred ‘Home Of Goals Galore’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 

This year’s renewal of the Rendlesham could once again turn into a bit of a slog, with heavy ground conditions likely, so you’ll need one with plenty of form on that kind of surface.

Reve De Sivola certainly fits the bill and is rightly favourite given his form, however, he does have to carry 8lb more than every other horse in the race and the record of favourites in the last 10 years is poor, only two have won and at 5/4 and 10/11. Reve De Sivola won’t be that short come the off and he looks vulnerable despite his clear class over hurdles in this type of ground.

Almost at the complete opposite of the scale is Warren Greatrex’s One Track Mind who is at the start of what could well be a very good staying career. He’s been well supported in the market, despite only beating San Benedeto by one and a half lengths last time out and that form, on the face of it, won’t be good enough here. 
However, Greatrex rates this horse very highly and you can’t rule out improvement, even though he might want some better ground than this.

But this race seems to be a great opportunity to look towards a couple of ‘reclamation jobs’ – At Fishers Cross, who put in a poor effort here last year, hasn’t won since his novice hurdling days, but has plenty of high-class form to his name. The weight allowance could well make a big difference and as he’s always showed his best form this side of Christmas, he could have one of his best opportunities to date to break that duck. His run last time in the Galmoy Hurdle was promising, even though he was well-beaten by Alpha Des Obeaux, and you’d expect him to come on for that.

However, another horse who could be having a ‘second-wind’ in their career is DEPUTY DAN, who returned to hurdles this season after some disappointing experiences chasing and finished third behind Thistlecrack and Reve De Sivola at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle last time out. He was about 12 lengths back that day on ground that would have been quick enough, so with the horrid conditions that we’re likely to get and the weight allowance, I can see that gap disappearing. Oliver Sherwood has always thought he was a very talented animal and given these perfect ground conditions and trip just short of the full three miles, the eight-year-old can get his head back in front for the first time since November 2014.

Advice

DEPUTY DAN – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair)

 
2.25 Ascot – The Appletiser 50 Year Celebration Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) 

Slightly disappointing turnout really but still a tricky little contest to unravel. Spookydooky immediately appealed on the back of his decent effort in bottomless ground when second in the Tommy Whittle last time out. Prior to that, he prevailed in a battling finish at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting and certainly seems to be on the upgrade over fences. He is still relatively inexperienced over the larger obstacles having only had three starts and the suspicion is that he may get found out by one or two of these today. His mark of 142 doesn’t leave a great deal of room for manoeuvre but he does look like a chaser on the upgrade can could well find the required improvement to play a leading role.

Waldorf Salad is an interesting case at the foot of the weights, sneaking in off 10st 6lb. The eight-year-old looked standard fair until improving markedly this season, landing a pair of novice handicap chases at Towcester and Taunton before running a blinding race to finish second on Cheltenham Trials Day last month. Another 5lb rise for that means he has gone up 20lb in total this campaign but Venetia Williams is most adept at finding the right landing spots for her staying chasers and this five-runner affair is an easier opportunity than most to land a sizable prize. He does face a different class of horse here today though and I can see him coming up a bit short.

Until fluffing the landing three out last time, Vieux Lion Rouge had been almost faultless over fences and his completed record reads 3-3. He was a good bumper horse and a better hurdler but always seemed to get found out when he tackled a better class of opposition. Chasing seems to be a completely different game for him though and he was still going ok when unshipping Tom Scudamore at Cheltenham. If he reproduces that effort, he is sure to be there or thereabouts.

However, preference is for SAUSALITO SUNRISE who could just prove to be a class above the rest of the field. The eight-year-old was in the midst of running a cracker when falling behind Coneygree in the 2014 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase and that put paid to the rest of his season. I fancied him on his return at Chepstow but it seems as though he needed that run to blow away he cobwebs as he ran no sort of race despite being heavily backed on the day. He bounced back with aplomb though at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting, landing the Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase with a fine staying performance. He was well beaten at Newbury last time out by 2014 RSA Chase winner O’Faolains Boy but that was a particularly messy race with only two finishers and a line can be struck through that run. In truth, a 6lb rise for his Cheltenham win doesn’t seem to be too harsh and he can regain the winning thread here despite carrying top weight.

Advice

SAUSALITO SUNRISE – 1pt win @ 9/4 (General)

 
2.40 Haydock – Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3) 

Looking ahead to this weekend and as only Silver By Nature and Rigadin De Beauchene won this race having finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for the trio of Broadway Buffalo, Gas Line Boy and Rigadin De Beauchene who all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form.

This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with seven of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Bishops Road, Gas Line Boy, Harry The Viking and Minella On Line all fail to make the cut in this year’s field and will be looking to emulate Well Refreshed, Giles Cross and Silver By Nature who all bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals.

In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with six of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side.  This narrows the field to five with only the bottom three as they appear in the racecard missing out.

Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that all of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. Therefore it may be best to steer clear of both Broadway Buffalo and Minella On Line as they both have question marks over their stamina.

It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; seven of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. The ones to come unstuck here are Rigadin De Beauchene, Cloudy Too and Gas Line Boy although the first of them had the same blot against his name when winning two years ago so perhaps he can be forgiven for his past misdemeanours.

When considering age, in recent years there has been a shift towards younger runners with six of the last ten winners being aged eight or nine, this includes four of the last six horses to be successful.  There are only two runners from the desired bracket this time around, the pair of eight-year-olds Bishops Road and Broadway Buffalo.
Another factor worthy of mention is that all of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. Minella On Line only misses the cut by a few days having been off the track for 66 days but there would be more concern for Broadway Buffalo who will be returning from an absence of 105 days.

The final factor to be considered is the one looking at the betting and it does not make good reading for favourite backers as only two of the last ten has obliged. Whilst the market is still open to change between now and Saturday afternoon, Kerry Lee’s Welsh Grand National winner Mountainous heads the market at 7/2 and therefore there would have to be question marks about his chances.

Shortlist

BISHOPS ROAD – 7/8

Cloudy Too – 6/8

Mountainous – 6/8

Conclusion

On the trends, the one that stands out is BISHOPS ROAD who won on his first start for the Kerry Lee team at Sandown last month. He misses just one of our trends having failed to win a Class 2 chase and sneaks in on the stamina stat due to his point-to-point success. The stable have been in fine form of late and this lightly-raced eight-year-old looks to have plenty of improvement still to come for his new connections. The booking of Richard Johnson suggests he is likely to be ridden positively and he could be tough to peg back. It looks quite a competitive affair despite the small field and he looks to have a big chance.

Sue Smith’s Cloudy Too was an impressive winner at Haydock last time when landing the Peter Marsh Chase and despite stepping up in trip, he looks likely to run well again this time around. He misses both the age trend and having been a bit careless as a youngster his jumping also saw him miss another trend. It will be tough for him to carry top weight in this ground but he arrives here in good form and looks likely to run well.

The final member of the shortlist is Mountainous who won the Welsh Grand National for the second time back in January. Like the trends pick Bishops Road, he too is trained by Kerry Lee who is forging quite a reputation in her first season with a license. We know he stays well and handles testing conditions but at the age of eleven he is above the desired bracket and he also has the burden of favouritism to carry.

Advice

BISHOPS ROAD – 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, BetVictor) 

 
3.00 Ascot – Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Hurdle.

The last time this race was won by anything carrying more than 11-2 was in 2007, and given that only two of the last nine winners carried more than 10-12, it should pay to look beyond those carrying too much weight. Different Gravey may well be the class animal in the race, but having to give almost a stone to nearly all of the field in soft ground means he needs to put up a monumental effort to win. The fact he’s been off since April adds to the doubts, but he’s clearly a high-quality horse so he has his chance.

Roadie Joe, with the impressive Lewis Gordon on board, would be interesting if it wasn’t for the ground. He looks to be more of a spring ground horse and any cut would seem to be against him – unfortunately, there will be plenty of it. He’s improving though, and if he progresses again, he could defy the doubts and put up a good show for Evan Williams. Another improver is Dan Skelton’s Debdebdeb who’s made a decent start over timber, winning two of her four races so far. With Bridget Andrews claiming five off the already low 10-3 that the mare has to carry, she has a chance with the battling qualities she showed last time out, but the form doesn’t look particularly strong and I’ll give her a miss this time.

Currently heading the market is Jonjo O’Neill’s Montdragon, who has won his last two starts in the style of an improving horse, especially at Haydock in December for which he’s gone up 7lb. He will have to step up again here, but with Jonjo’s string entering ‘Cheltenham mode’, you can be sure he’ll be firing and ready to go. Josh Moore rides again and the soft ground should suit but he’s an uninspiring bet at 7/2 in a competitive race.

FINGERTIPS hit the deck at the last at Sandown Park when chasing Akavit in a Juvenile Hurdle two weeks ago, but was in the process of running another decent race – he’s got some good French form and he was slick in beating Polarisation, also at Sandown Park. David Pipe’s four-year-old is let in leniently at the weights, carrying 10lb less than Pull The Cord who is on the same official rating and where that Philip Hobbs-trained rival looks to have fallen into the handicapper’s grip, you can’t say the same for David Pipe’s charge.

He could have a lot more to come, especially on his preferred soft ground and up in trip – being by Martaline, you’d think he’d want at least two and a half miles. A negative is the fact that no four-year-old has won this in the last 10 years, but this big field could help this highly-strung  settle better and fulfil some of his undoubted potential. Pipe also won this last year with Unique De Cotte and it’s interesting he’s running in this rather than looking towards the Fred Winter at Cheltenham.
Paul Nicholls’ Sirabad makes the switch back from chasing and he’s certainly another interesting contender given the Nicholls team always had him down as an exciting one for the larger obstacles. His 11 length fourth to Thistlecrack doesn’t make bad reading and his novice hurdle win over Seven Nation Army was a decent effort too. He goes well on soft ground and could be on a decent mark, but this doesn’t seem to have been the plan for this horse and it could be best to keep a watching brief.

Advice

FINGERTIPS – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (SkyBet)

 
3.15 Haydock – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) 

As you would expect for one of the last qualifiers for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, it has attracted a competitive field and the weights are headed by Nicky Richards’ Top Billing. The seven-year-old was rapidly progressive in 2014 and returned from a year off to win by a wide margin at Bangor in November. The subsequent 12lb rise gave him a tough task at Doncaster last time but he found only Zeroeshadesofgrey too good on the day. He has gone up another 4lb for that effort but he is clearly a horse on the up and despite conceding weight all around, it is hard to see him finishing outside of the frame.

A similarly progressive performer is Neil King’s The Boss’s Dream who is up to a career-high mark of 139 having won three of his first four starts this term. His latest effort saw him show a fine attitude to hold off his rivals at Warwick and win with a couple of lengths to spare. An extra 9lb could prove difficult to overcome here but he is clearly in fine form and it is difficult to dismiss him.

Jonjo O’Neill has taken this contest a couple of times in recent years and saddles Box Office in his bid to land a third success. The five-year-old has been well-backed in several handicap hurdles in recent times but his latest effort at Sandown in December suggests that this sort of stamina test was likely to bring out further improvement from him. In truth he doesn’t look too well handicapped when you consider that he has yet to win in Britain but Barry Geraghty prefers him to stablemate Mountain Tunes so he would have to be the pick of the pair.

However, I am going to take a chance on one towards the bottom of the weights, in the shape of Gordon Elliott’s WOODFORD ISLAND. The five-year-old was third in a similar contest at Leopardstown in December before winning at Navan last month. Despite his short odds he looked a bit awkward that day although his trainer was keen to stress afterwards that they got the tactics wrong and he would be more patiently ridden last time. He currently sits on a mark of 126 which wouldn’t get him into the final so you would have to think he would need to win well here to have a chance of getting in. It is also interesting that Richard Johnson has been booked to ride him as the pair have a fine strike-rate when teaming up. The 10st 5lb weight is also towards the lower end of Johnson’s capabilities and in fact he has only got down to that once in the last month, when he won on Saddlers Encore at Sandown. He is one of the more lightly-raced members in the field and with him likely to relish the testing conditions, I fancy him to run a big race.

Advice

WOODFORD ISLAND – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

 
3.35 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) 

Only eight runners for this Grade 1 contest but there is plenty to discuss, beginning with the favourite Silviniaco Conti who drops back in trip following a below-par effort in the King George last time. The horse’s issues have been well documented but Paul Nicholls was of the belief that he had the ten-year-old in much better form for this assignment. Having worn cheekpieces for his last few outings, he wears blinkers here which could just help him dropping back in trip. The soft ground should make it more of a stamina test and that is likely to suit him but I have the nagging suspicion that he might just find it a bit sharp for him and therefore I think he is worth taking on at the head of the market.

Nicky Henderson won this race twice with Riverside Theatre and saddles two runners here in the shape of Triolo D’Alene and Ma Filleule. The former was an impressive winner on his return to action in January and now looks to have the Grand National in his sights later in the year. He seemed to show last time that he handles soft ground so can’t be ruled out here. His stablemate was second in the race last year but despite winning last time, she hasn’t quite been in the same form this term. She does tend to be better at this time of year but despite receiving 7lb from the rest of the field, I am happy to pass her by.

The one I’m going to side with is DYNASTE who may not have won since winning the Ryanair in 2014 but he has plenty of form subsequently to suggest he has a strong chance here. He has largely been campaigned over 3m in that time and whilst he probably does stay that far, I have no doubt that he is more effective over 2m5f. Something clearly wasn’t right with him in December when he ran in the Long Walk Hurdle here and as well as wearing the tongue-tie/blinkers combination for the first time, he has also had a wind operation since his last run. He is pretty versatile in terms of ground conditions and I fancy him to run a big race on his return. He has finished behind Silviniaco Conti on several occasions in the last couple of years but I feel he is better suited to this trip than the favourite and so he gets the nod.

Of the rest of the field, Royal Regatta is an interesting runner having won here in December but he was beaten in a handicap next time and I think he will find it tough in this sort of company. Flemenstar has plenty of back-class and has showed signs that he retains that ability this term, benefitting from the fall of Un De Sceaux to land the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. He could be the flyer in the market and could offer some value at around the 10/1 mark.

Advice

DYNASTE – 2pts win @ 7/2 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Coral)

  
4.10 Ascot – The Two Weeks Until Racing UK HD Handicap Hurdle Race.

This looks like being one of the more competitive races of the weekend but WHAT A MOMENT stands out ahead of the rest. The six-year-old was purchased by David Pipe for £68,000 after he finished runner-up to Drumlee Sunset (now a 133-rated hurdler for Philip Hobbs) in an Irish point with Fagan, who subsequently racked up a six-timer (three points, two bumpers and a novice hurdle) and finished a narrow second to O O Seven in the Albert Bartlett Scottish Trial, two places further back in fourth.

He showed a good attitude when opening his account under rules in a Towcester bumper just over a year ago, out-battling Briery Queen, who finished second in a Listed mares’ bumper next time out, on the run-in. He disappointed somewhat under a penalty at Uttoxeter but he never settled that day and the race has proven to be stronger than first thought with the winner Definite Outcome finishing in the frame in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Warwick and the runner-up Coeur Blimey landing a Listed bumper at Ascot, and now finding himself to the fore of the market for the Champion Bumper. His hurdling form hasn’t particularly set the world alight but he has run into some classy sorts and on the evidence of his latest fourth (held-up out the back and stayed on despite never having a chance to get on terms), he should certainly appreciate the step up in trip he faces this afternoon. He looks to be on a fair mark for his handicap debut and the application of the first-time tongue strap and hood can only help him settle better into a race where conditions look to be right up his street.

Royale Knight is probably the biggest danger although it remains to be seen how he will run given the Grand National is his aim again this year (6th in 2015). On the bare form of his latest second at Plumpton, he would be entitled to have a decent chance and the 10lb Charlie Hammond takes off his back can only help in a race where only 7lb separates the top twelve in the field.

Captainofindustry is another that could play his part if bouncing back from his below-par effort at Chepstow on Welsh National day. The boggy conditions mean you can pretty much put a line through that race and the fact he has been dropped 1lb by the assessor can only help. He remains with potential and three miles is certainly his trip so is entitled to show his true running this time round.

Advice

WHAT A MOMENT – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook) 

[Blazing Bailey]

4 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

She seems to be one of the trainers I can never catch right along with David Pipe and Venetia Williams. Possibly Jonjo O'Neill too but his horses tend to come to life in spring with better ground.

I could be making too much out of this but I really think their horses are so in and out that they're hard to back. Anyone have some sort of theory on why this seems to be the case?

Yeh I would agree with all of them but would say that Venetia's are a but like Jonjo's but they are better on bad ground instead. 

For me, Pipes yard has been going down steadily over the last couple of years and his best horses haven't fired for a long time. 

Donald Mccain is another trainer I would almost certainly avoid too albeit he looks to be starting to get a grip again. 

[BillyHills]

Ascot Pot

 

[arsenalfh]

2.55 Fairyhouse - Golan Lodge e/w @ 14/1 Bet365

Townshend was a 170k purchase for Ricci and Mullins and has bags of potential but he looks very short in a very good handicap off this current mark based on what he did in France. Squouateur won a poor handicap well the last time but has been put up 8lbs for that while Mall Dini looks that bit more exposed than a lot of these. The interesting ones are further down the market with Coolaghknock Glebe winning a decent race last time and still improving but I prefer Golan Lodge who beat a well handicapped horse at Leopardstown wearing the Ricci silks last time. He's only been put up 7lbs and should make his presence felt again as an improving type. He's not short of pace so the drop in trip should pose no problems and with the services of the best claimer in Jack Kennedy he looks a decent bet at the prices.

3.00 Ascot - Arctic Gold e/w @ 14/1 Bet365

The front two in the market look a little short with Montdragon going up 7lbs for winning a poor race and Debdebdeb running in less than ideal testing ground today. I don't like horses switching codes either so Sirabad isn't appealing and Different Gravey has it all to do off a break carrying top weight. Arctic Gold was well beaten on paper last time but I reckon he only got the 3m at Ludlow by setting a slow gallop in a weak race and he was a blatant non stayer last time over 3m 2f. He traveled beautifully through the race before going out like a light and that tells me that he is still progressive and the drop to an intermediate trip should be ideal. He might get an easy lead here and with Ryan Hatch taking off a useful 3lbs I think he is a great bet with Bet365 going 1/4 odds e/w.

Elsewhere I was impressed with Mr Mix last time as he demolished a decent looking field and I'm surprised he is only 3rd in the market on the back of that. He looked like he finally put it all together although he was still a little green and I'm sure he can finally push on from there so he's a bet at the prices. Reve De Sivola shows his best form at Ascot so he was a bit of a crazy price last night as favourite giving 8lbs and although the market has now adjusted I still think One Track Mind is the one. The yard have been incredibly bullish about how good this horse is and facing horses on the way down I think he'll take a bit of beating. I thought it was a poor reappearance from At Fishers Cross to be honest just about beating Martello Tower who made an awful mistake 4 out which could have easily ended his race. That form is miles off his best and I don't think he'll recapture that. Back at Haydock in the Grand National trial I always thought Bishops Road shaped more like a stayer and I was really taken by his performance at Sandown the last time. He would be much shorter if he was just stepping up to 3m so if the 8 runners stand their ground closer to the off he looks a bet with Bet365 going 1/4 odds e/w.

[Blazing Bailey]

Lots of racing today so I will run through a couple of my thoughts on the day.

Ascot

1.15 - This looks a straight shootout between Yala Enki and Mr Mix. Yala Enki has shown himself to be a solid low 140's horse (RPRs) and Mr Mix ran a very impressive 143 on debut. Mr Mix gets 3lb and is the bigger price of the two and while Yala Enki has the more solid form, Mr Mix could still be anything and they seem to like him a lot.

Mr Mix 16/5 Corals (was bigger)

1.50 - Again this looks another straight shootout between an unknown quantity and a horse that has shown a solid consistent level of form. This time the prices are in the favour of Onenightinvienna whereas the unknown of Drumacoo is short enough.

Onenightinvienna 3/1 Betway

2.25 - Tough race to call as I fancy three of the five runners. I wont be betting but I would probably side with Spookdooky at the prices, I liked his run at Newbury and he is as game as they come. He probably wouldnt have enjoyed it as soft as it was last time out on a sharp track and likewise he is stable is starting to come into form ahead of the Festival.

Spookydooky 11/2 Stan James

3.00 - A really competitive race but I am really keen on the Hobbs runner Pull The Chord. He has been progressing nicely in handicaps and had excuses for not showing his best form last time out despite only being 5 lengths behind the winner. Todays conditions will be right up his street and I expect him to progress. Of the rest Roadie Joe could be an interesting EW selection at the prices given his form in graded races.

Pull The Chord 7/1 Bet365

 

 

[Blazing Bailey]

Ascot continued...

4.10 - I struggled to find one I could really get stuck into on this race but my tentative selection would be Royale Knight. I dont know where the stayers challenger series will be however Dr Newland has used these type of races as decent prep runs for his National horses (see Pineau De Rei) and whilst there is a good chance he wont be fully wound up and therefore represents a risk, however he is in form over hurdles and he is on a handy mark and if he is fairly well tuned up, he should go very close.

Royale Knight 8/1 Bet365

4.45 - Tough little bumper to call with the first 4 in the betting the only 4 I can consider. I have Calling Des Blins as the standout on form from his french bumper run with some decent types in behind and she gets weight from the other principals. I think her price is short enough now and I wouldnt want to back her at any shorter and I would probably side with the Hobbs runner otherwise but it should be an interesting introduction for the selection win or lose.

Calling Des Blins 11/4 Bet365

 

[Blazing Bailey]

Haydock

2.05 - Another tough race to call. Reve De Sivola is probably a worthy favourite but he has an 8lb penalty to shoulder and that will make things tough. I have At Fishers Cross, Deputy Dan and One Track Mind as all being very similar rated on their current level of form however I have Silsol just that little bit higher courtesy of his really gutsy wins on bad ground last season. Its a little more difficult to assess his current well being due to going chasing but there are questions about the others too with At Fishers Cross being a risk, and One Track Mind probably not going to enjoy this ground. Deputy Dan would be another solid option but he has proven below this level on his runs returned to hurdles, but that level wouldnt put him far off in this.

Silsol 11/2 Bet365

2.40 - Another good race today. I am going with Broadway Buffalo who has always suggested that this type of test will see him to his best and he was running a big race before falling last season. He still has room for improvement too so I think this mark is very workable. The other I am interested in is Rigadin De Beachene who has proven that he loves these conditions as well. He was in the doldrums for a while but he is back in form now and should be there at the finish.

Broadway Buffalo 4/1 Various

3.15 - After one thing or another I was left with two selections in this and I couldnt split them. Box Office has been gradually improving this season and should have finished closer last time out, after not getting the clearest run at a track where it can sometimes pay to be at the head of affairs. His yard is in form and whilst he is starting to look a little like a nearly horse, I do still think he is well handicapped. Likewise Woodford County has also been a little unlucky, sometimes in running or not quite jumping the last as well as the other two like he did at Ascot.

Box Office 11/2 Skybet

Woodford County 3/1 Various (in truth I wouldnt back him at that price)

 

 

 

Edited February 20, 2016 by Blazing Bailey
Duplicated post

[Blazing Bailey]

Wincanton

1.40 - Wide open race and I can see arguments for the winner but my tentative selection would be for Craiganee. Ran really well last time at a more appropriate trip and with a tongue tie. That would put him in the picture here for all that he hasnt won in 12 attempts.

Craiganee 8/1 Various

3.55 - Gardefort will be returned to his favourite conditions today and can make amends off a workable mark. Price is short enough now but he would be idea of the winner.

Gardeford 15/8 Corals

 

Edited February 20, 2016 by Blazing Bailey
Duplicated post

[arsenalfh]

Mr Mix just out battled by Yala Enki unfortunately for us Bailey.

[Blazing Bailey]

23 minutes ago, arsenalfh said:

Mr Mix just out battled by Yala Enki unfortunately for us Bailey.

I think the difference there was that the winner was more battle hardened.

[Blazing Bailey]

I didnt see that coming at all... Did the favourites take each other on too early and hampered each others chances or have the others improved?

[Blazing Bailey]

On 17/02/2016, 19:37:16, BillyHills said:

1.50 Ascot: Reynoldstown Novice Chase

 

Verdict:

I’m keen on Minella Rocco at the prices and think one day he will show us what he is made of over fences. He may leave that for Cheltenham where he’s entered for both the National Hunt Chase and the RSA. Of the top three in the market I think Drumacoo needs to repeat his debut effort and looks a bit skinny to me. Vyta Du Roc has the best hurdling form and for whatever reason he didn’t show up at Doncaster last time. He has it to prove now but is the value bet in my eyes over his market rivals on this occasion.

Selections:

Minella Rocco 14/1 Skybet

Vyta Du Roc 3/1 Paddy Power

 

Great shout BH, shame they didnt finish the other way around!

[Blazing Bailey]

Now this is just getting brutal!