Ryanair Chase - Thursday 17th

[BillyHills]

The Ryanair Chase

[BillyHills]

Preview

Verdict:

It’s a tricky race to weigh up as I’m not sure what’s going on with the Gigginstown runners. Either Road To Riches or Valseur Lido would have to be given a chance in what looks a below par renewal at this stage. Al Ferof should put up another good display and runs well here at Cheltenham, he looks a more solid option. Vibrato Valtat would be interesting if getting the trip, he was second at Aintree over a similar trip last year so there is every chance he can see it out. Of the others I fancy Josses Hill can run a decent race for the Henderson team.

Selections:

Al Ferof 6/1 Boylepsorts

Vibrato Valtat EW 12/1 Paddy Power

[PeterX]

On the basis that Vautour doesn't run, because let's be honest if he turns up here he would take the world of beating and I wouldn't be in a hurry to take him on. I also highly doubt Vroum Vroum Mag will feature here.

Firstly in my opinion both Road To Riches & Valseur Lido should be in the Gold Cup. They're both 3mile + horses. I think they would be too slow for this race so I'll ruling them out. I would have slight preference for Road to Riches who could make his presence felt if he was to turn up, but he'll be a short price and worth taking on.

Al Ferof is a fairly consistent sort, has run a place in the King George acouple times. But he's certaintly no spring chicken and at 11 I couldn't be backing him. The last 3 renewels have gone to second season chasers and there's better value to be had.

Vibrato Valtat is a consistent horse and often hits the frame. He's been running decent races in some of the top 2mile races without doing anything spectacular. But I think he wants further and should enjoy the extra distance he'll get in the Ryanair. The horse is a big player here for Paul Nicholls.

Josses Hill really interests me here. A decent horse placed in acouple festivals, second in a supreme and third in last years Arkle. He's been campaigning mostly over 2miles like Vibrato Valtat. But I thought he looked really good last time out when beating Gods Own at Kempton over a similar distance and really saw the trip out. Provided his jumping is similar to that last time out he must have a very good chance here. 

Village Vic for Philip Hobbs has been improving all season and just keeps winning. He loves it around Cheltenham and brings the top handicap form to the table. Obviously this is going to be a big step up in class for him but there's nonreason he shouldn't go well once again. Uxizandre won this race last year with a positive ride from McCoy, making all in front and Village Vic loves to race like that. With Richard Johnson in the saddle, in an open looking renewel of the race, I think he's got to have a decent chance.

You couldn't rule Smashing out of the race either, he's ran well at Cheltenham in the past and looks a much improved horse over fences around this sort of trip. But he's been doing all his winning on heavy ground and I can't help but think he might be abit of a small field bully and he won't get his own way here.

There's 3 horses I like here and they're all double figure prices so I'm just going to put them all up. And back them all to win level stakes. 

Verdict:

Vibrato Valtat 10/1 

Josses Hill 12/1

Village Vic 12/1 

All with Boylesports 

[BillyHills]

Vautour now running here instead of Gold Cup - Back to the drawing board!

[Blazing Bailey]

Vautour being redirected to this race makes it a real pain in the arse now. They have said he is only 90% fit so that is enough for me to take him on, at least to an extent.

Al Ferof has to be respected for Dan Skelton but he seems to be at his best on his first run of the season and he is short enough to take a chance on Skelton changing that pattern for all that he has a big chance on his form this year.

Valseur Lido has fallen and unseated on his last two and that is enough for me to pass in a race like this.

Taquin De Seuil could be involved. He has a little to find but ran really well on his first start after injury. He did a similar thing the year before though, putting in the same figure before going off the boil. He is a price to take that chance though.

Josses Hill is more interesting now as a front runner but he has generally been sticky over his fences and given that he has a bit to find anyway, the combination of the two is enough for me not back him in a good race like this.

Dynaste has the profile of a plot for Pipe but given that this isnt a handicap it wouldnt make too much sense and I would have expected to have seen more for all that I had an interest on him AP.

The two I have gone with are Road to Riches and Village Vic.

Road to Riches loves good ground and has run really well over this trip previously at less testing trips. His trainer was confident of another good show in the Gold Cup so in this weaker race he would have a good chance. I will be splitting my stake on him on the nose in the main market and also in the without Vautour market.

Village Vic has been a big improver this year and whilst I have him on a similar rating as TDS, Al Ferof and Dynaste, Village Vic is still improving. My concern regarding the accuracy of my rating is something I am taking into account as he has improved on bad ground this winter so my stake wont be very big, however it is believed by connections that he does prefer better ground so again that could see more improvement from him. He clearly acts well at the track and is of interest EW in the without Vautour market at around 14/1.

 

 

 

 

[arsenalfh]

This race is a bit of a mess with Road To Riches still in the Gold Cup. I don't buy the 90% excuse about Vautour and I think the reason for the decision was more likely because Ruby wanted to ride both him and Djakadam. I was trying to find some value in the e/w and w/o markets but I'm struggling. Initially I thought Josses Hill looked a good bet after Gods Own franked the form today but I don't think the latter quite ran his race at Kempton when not finding much when going upsides at the 2nd last and Josses Hill was flattered by the winning margin. Aso was also pretty close and although he might be improving after a good run in the Arkle I'm more inclined to think Douvan didn't produce the spectacular performance people were expecting to match Vautour last year. So although he can improve with cheekpieces on too I think he has a bit to find.

I'm a Road To Riches fan and can easily forgive his last run when given a shocking ride by Cooper. They went way too quick in front on horrible ground and the other front runners could barely finish so in hindsight his 3rd place may look like a decent run. It was also a run off a break and he can improve for fitness so he's one to consider. That being said I think Vautour's price is very fair and if bookies are generous and push him out a more I'll probably stick with Vautour and possibly double him up with Thistlecrack.

[beaker1]

With all but one of the last eight winners of this contest having won at Cheltenham before, it seems that course form is something that often gives horses an advantage. If we apply that to this year’s field then it splits it exactly in half with eight on either side of the divide. Many of you will remember Vautour’s scintillating display in the JLT last year, twelve months after Taquin Du Seuil landed the same prize. Dynaste won this race in 2014, whilst his fellow grey Al Ferof is no stranger to Prestbury Park having won both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Paddy Power Gold Cup here. The list is completed by Champagne West, Captain Conan, Village Vic and Annacotty.

As far as races go for being a guide for this race, you could do worse than look at Kempton’s King George as five of the last eight winners took in that particular engagement. This is largely because horses try the 3m trip at Kempton and drop back for this or because this race is often a little less competitive than the Gold Cup. As we know, in this season’s renewal Vautour was collared right on the line by Cue Card, with Al Ferof back in third place. Valseur Lido also lined up at Kempton and looked booked for fifth place when coming down at the final fence.

Despite being largely considered to be the lesser younger brother of the Gold Cup, the official ratings of the last eight winners suggest that this is well worth its place as a Grade 1. All but one of the last eight winners was rated 161 or higher and when looking at our field for this year, there are five such horses who fit the bill. Vautour tops the list with a whopping 176, some 11lb clear of Al Ferof and Road To Riches, whilst Vibrato Valtat and Valseur Lido both sit on a mark of 161.

The more that you look at the trends, the more difficult it is to get away from the favourite Vautour who heads here following connections’ decision to abort plans to run in the Gold Cup. As well as the trends we have discussed, two more which work in his favour are that five of the last eight winners made all or most of the running and only two of the last eight had won last time out. As I have mentioned he is well clear on official ratings and if he turns up in the same form as twelve months ago in the JLT, then he could be very hard to beat.

There will however be plenty queuing up to have a go at him including Al Ferof who may have finished a fair way behind him at Kempton but has never really convinced me as a true three-miler. This intermediate trip looks perfect for him and he seems to have enjoyed something of a renaissance since joining the Dan Skelton team. It is not unfair to say he has plenty to find with the favourite and whilst he looks to have solid claims on the trends, it is hard to see him getting involved here.
One of those towards the head of the market Road To Riches must also come into consideration for all that this trip is probably shorter than ideal for him. A gallant third in the Gold Cup at last year’s Festival he won the Clonmel Oil Chase in November before chasing home Carlingford Lough in the Irish Gold Cup last time. Like the favourite, he has to overcome the poor record of Irish runners in the race but class often prevails here and it is hard to see him being too far away.

One at a big price who looks to have plenty going in his favour is former winner of the race Dynaste who has largely been campaigned over three miles on soft ground in the last couple of years. His run last time was a better one over this intermediate trip but more crucially I think the quicker ground that he is likely to encounter will bring about massive improvement from him. The Pipe yard have already found themselves amongst the winners this week and whilst it is hard to see past Vautour, I could see him hitting the frame at sizeable odds.

Shortlist

Vautour

Road To Riches

Dynaste

[Blazing Bailey]

Great performance from Vautour but a little sick to be nabbed on the line with Road to Riches for 2nd.