Pertemps Network Final - Thursday 17th

[BillyHills]

Pertemps Network Final

[BillyHills]

Preview:

Verdict:

A good quality renewal for the Pertemps Final and its interesting that when you look at the list of previous winners over the last 18 years, exactly half of them came here on the back of a win. That’s a cracking percentage and my two against the field on that basis are If In Doubt from the Philip Hobbs yard and Missed Approach the lightly raced 6yo trained by Warren Greatrex. If In Doubt very much reminds me of Fingal Bay who won this race for the same yard and Missed Approach has been targeting this race for some time and I like that angle. Cup Final, Leave At Dawn and Flintham can all be given a chance in a wide-open contest.

Selections:

If In Doubt 12/1 William Hill

Missed Approach 10/1 Paddy Power

[richard-westwood]

Always a tricky race 

Saddles encore  99.10 

Rollin maul   99.06

If in doubt 99.06 

I like the look of saddles encore here ...looks like a very progressive horse and showed his class lot winning a grad 3 and looks the type to go up from that and if that's so he would do very well here as this isn't much harder ...16/1 looks very good value ....of the outsiders rolling maul is better than bare form figures suggest ...looks nicely treated at present if he can return to best form and may outrun his 33/1 price

S addlers encore  5 Pts ew 16/1 bet365

Rollin maul 5 pts ew 33/1 bet365

[richard-westwood]

Well my two are looking good to get in so far .....join the clan is 4th rated at 99.04 and I missed he has tight collateral form with Sadler encore giving him an outstanding chance of reversing the form with that one so can't be left out 

Join the clan 5 pts ew 20/1 wh

[Blazing Bailey]

This looks a cracking renewal and I couldnt put you off the tips by the guys above as they too were on my shortlist for all that I have come up with a different answer!

Arpege De Alene - He was an improver over hurdles last season but returned chasing this year which didnt take off. I was keen on him when he ran back over hurdles last time out, making a mistake at the last before coming clear. He looks on a good mark, handles good ground and his trainer is in form in handicaps. At around 14's he is big enough for an EW play with 5 places.

Our Kaempfer is another that I have had an interest in before when second to the enterprisingly ridden Broxbourne and then again when brought down at Haydock when travelling well. Good ground is no problem, this test, including the hill is sure to suit him well and whilst his stables form is a slight concern I think he is on a good mark and should have conditions to suit if staying out of trouble. He would be a great EW play if he was a bit of a bigger price so I might keep my eye out again in the morning if he drifts.

Cup Final is my final selection as I could bet on this race without having a McManus runner on side. This one has probably shown his hand more than the others however I have liked the look of his recent form as I think it may underestimate him. He wants a real test and he wants genuine good ground which isnt something you can say about all of these and whilst he has had a habit of being a little disappointing and therefore I wont be backing him as heavily as the other two, this just looks like a race he will really enjoy and show his true colours.

 

[beaker1]

As should be expected in a race like the Pertemps, the more experienced contender tends to be more able to cope with the hustle and bustle of a premier three mile handicap hurdle. 7 of the last 10 winners were at least eight-years-old which is a good sign for the quintet in this year’s filed which includes If In Doubt.

To take this a step further, the only five-year-old to win the Pertemps Final was back in 1988 which is a worrying sign for Box Office in this year’s renewal.
Last time out winners are normally the way to go when looking at Graded races but they have also had a decent record in the Pertemps. 7 of the last 15 winners had a ‘1’ next to their names which boosts the chances of If In Doubt, Cup Final and Missed Approach.

The Pertemps Final has yielded two Grand National winners in the last 10 years and we have seen a distinct increase in the number of chasers taking part in this particular contest. Their record is altogether rather eye-catching with 6 of the last 10 winners having ran over fences. Nearly half of the field have contested a chase at some point in their careers including If In Doubt, Flintham and Join The Clan.

The class of horse contesting the Pertemps is increasing year on year and each of the last 5 winners won off a mark of at least 138. In the future, horses rated 138 may struggle to get in altogether but the likes of Leave At Dawn (137) and Saddlers Encore (135) have something to prove here.

9 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 2m7f prior to lining up here. Proven stamina has been key in a race like the Pertemps which is not run at the run of the mill pace in your usual three mile handicap hurdles. Ten of this year’s field fall down on this stat including the well fancied Our Kaempfer.

The Irish have a pretty average record in this race compared to others at The Festival having only supplied 2 winners in the last 15 renewals. In truth, the Irish haven’t really targeted this race over the years but it is still a concerning stat nevertheless for the likes of Rathpatrick, Leave At Dawn and Mall Dini.

The record of Irish-trained runners is pretty troubling but nowhere near as alarming as the fact that no French-bred horse has won this race in the last 15 renewals from 64 that have tried. This is a surprising statistic  given that French-bred horses have been well and truly on the up recently and it Is not like they have been no-hopers as Sam Winner, Chartreux, Miko De Beauchene and Robin Du Bois have all been beaten when sent off favourite. This puts a black mark against the quartet of French-breds in this years’ line-up, Arpege d’Alene, Box Office, Dubawi Island and Un Ace.

We all know how much JP McManus thrives on landing handicaps at the big Festivals and he turns up here with a strong sextet of runners. If In Doubt is the clear trends pick and would have to be afforded a great chance on the back of his ready win at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He was well fancied in this two years ago and was heavily backed on the day but could only manage to finish ninth despite looking likely to challenge approaching the last. He has progressed since then though, albeit over fences and looked a potentially classy sort when landing the Sky Bet Chase last year. He was even far from disgraced when fifth in last year’s RSA. He disappointed on his seasonal debut in the Hennessy Gold Cup and reverted back to the smaller obstacles on the back of a sticky jumping display. He clearly stays very well and having the Champion Jockey-elect Richard Johnson in the saddle can only aid his chances.

Another of the McManus contingent to perform well on the trends is Cup Final for the Nicky Henderson team. He is very lightly-raced and arrives here with bundles of potential. He is bred for greatness, being out of Asian Maze, and has always been well thought of by connections despite having a few niggling injury problems over the years. The Pertemps has been the goal for him from the outset this season and he needed to win his qualifier to stand a realistic chance of getting in the field, which he did in nice style in ground that didn’t suit. Going into that Musselburgh race, there were question marks about whether he would stay but he soon dispelled those worries as he kept on well on the run-in for the win. He does seem to have been overlooked by Barry Geraghty which is a tad puzzling but has strong credentials nonetheless.

Flintham is a strong statistical pick but does have a 9lb rise to overcome for his narrow win at Warwick in January. He progressed rapidly over the sticks last campaign, landing a trio of handicaps, and was pitched into some pretty fierce company to round off his season in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. Being a full-brother to the yard’s Carruthers and a half-brother to last year’s Gold Cup winner Coneygree, it didn’t come as a shock that he was tried over fences but his jumping left a fair bit to be desired and he soon returned to the smaller obstacles. His win last time out wasn’t particularly impressive but it was run in pretty attritional conditions and he showed a good attitude to stick his head in front. This is his highest ever handicap mark however and although he looks to be going the right way, Charlie Deutsch’s 5lb claim could well be invaluable.

In a strange turn of events, Leave At Dawn has perhaps the most to do to overcome the trends. His only real plus is that he isn’t French-bred which is a pretty damning verdict of you looked solely at the statistics. However, if you look at his overall profile, he certainly has to be high on the shortlist. He impressed when landing a handicap at the Open Meeting in November and qualified for this with a canny run in at Leopardstown over Christmas, where he finished a never nearer fifth. On the back of that run, he was immediately touted as a Pertemps contender and will certainly prefer the better ground here. He has the assessor to thank for getting in to the race as he would have been way out of the reckoning if the British handicappers hadn’t raised him 5lb from his Irish mark. As the pick of Barry Geraghty, he has to enter the reckoning.

Shortlist

If In Doubt

Cup Final

Leave At Dawn

Flintham

[arsenalfh]

Very competitive race and there's 3 I like. Bookies going 5 places so I'm not worried about throwing a few darts at this.

First one I like is Mall Dini. Placed in two really good handicaps in Ireland and improving. His latest 3rd looked like one of the hottest handicaps on both sides of the sea and it's already working out well. He stumbled coming down the straight and didn't seem to have the pace for 2m 4f so stepping back up to 3m should suit.

Another one I like is Warrior's Tale. Put in a personal best on his debut over fences but flopped next time when Nicholl's weren't going well. He returned to hurdles when 2nd to Cup Final who is one of the favourites for this and traveled like the winner the whole way around. They might just restrain him a bit more as the yard have suggested changing tactics which might bring more improvement. That being said he's still lightly raced and is the pick of stable jockey Sam Twiston Davies so he should go well at a price.

The last one I like is Rolling Maul. He was balloted out of this last year and was progressive over hurdles last spring. He flopped over fences but was better when 4th in a qualifier behind Flintham. He still needs to improve on that but he would have hated that ground so hindsight it might look a good run and he's been dropped 2lbs. David Noonan takes off a valuable 5lbs too and is a claimer to keep onside so I can see him going well.

Mall Dini e/w @ 20/1 - Bet365

Warrior's Tale e/w @ 25/1 - Bet365

Rolling Maul e/w @ 50/1 - Bet365

[arsenalfh]

Mall Dini did it nicely.