arsenalfh
-
Posts
1,245 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
4
Posts posted by arsenalfh
-
-
1.30 Ch: Melon
2.10 Ch: Forest Bihan
2.50 Ch: Holywell
3.30 Ch: My Tent Or Yours
4.10 Ch: Limini
4.50 Ch: A Genie In A Bottle
5.30 Ch: All Hell Let Loose -
My god I'm coming round to backing My Tent Or Yours each way. Never thought I would come to that conclusion but the race is so weak that his run behind Annie Power looks the best piece of form.
Yanworth has the 2nd best piece of form and should be suited by the stiffer test. Buveur D'air, Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir are progressive but haven't achieved all that much. The latter could well be a triple Grade 1 winner but Footpad got pretty close to him last time, I don't think Nichols Canyon likes Leopardstown and beating Irving in the Fighting Fifth is not Champion Hurdle form.
You would have to be mental to back Moon Racer I think. Miles off what is required and is a novice who comes here off a massive break.
Yanworth might just be too good for My Tent Or Yours but he always runs his race in March on good ground and at 4 times the price looks a bit of value. Will have to see what happens to the market on Tuesday as I can see some of the flashier types being backed in making Yanworth a betting proposition too.
-
On 2/19/2017, 9:48:07, BillyHills said:
Have to disagree about Thistlecrack, he's a proper stayer in my eyes, just look at the way he destroyed decent horses last season over 3 miles.
No reason whatsoever he would want a shorter trip over the bigger obstacles and to say he is exposed is a little misguided.Cue Card beat nothing at Ascot but he did it well, not a decent enough trial for the Gold Cup, wrong track, wrong trip and poor opposition. It was a good prep run but i was still more taken by Native River last week. That was a fine trial on the back of two of the toughest handicaps of the season, he looks a real danger to Thistlecrack.
The other thing is that we have Richard Johnson, Tom Scudamore and Paddy Brennan, i know which one i could trust on the big day in the Gold Cup!!
Thistlecrack was winning staying hurdles on the bridle putting the races to bed 2 furlongs out. Nothing was able to really test his stamina because the division is so poor.
If anything going chasing has made him more aggressive and exuberant. I didn't like the way he failed to extend when winning a sub par King George and I don't think Scudamore was holding onto a lot there to be honest. Again in the Cotswolds Chase he didn't find as much as you would think given the way he traveled through the race.
He clearly stays well but given the way he travels through his races I don't think it's outlandish to suggest he would be better over an intermediate trip. I'm not saying he should run in a Ryanair (if fit of course) because he clearly is an excellent staying chaser it's just I think he could run a few pounds better over shorter.
I don't think it's misguided to say he's a little exposed either. He's a 9 year old and the Gold Cup was the target before the season even started so I reckon they had him well forward. He won a weak King George and then was beaten by Many Clouds so I just never saw that much improvement in him going forward to Cheltenham (and beyond now).
-
FC Porto v Juventus
The home side have an incredible record at home in the Champions League and have beaten Bayern and Chelsea at home in recent years. They also may have the perfect style to upset this Juventus side with their aggressive press from the front led by Andre Silva particularly with Bonucci missing from the squad. However I wanted bigger than 3.4 to be backing them against a side like Juventus and the value on the win market looks on the side of Juventus if anything at 2.6.
However I've been collecting shot location numbers in Liga NOS this season and Porto's centre half pairing come out incredibly well on shot quantity and quality. Although Porto are usually dominant against most opponents in the domestic league and get lots of set pieces as a result this is not seen in the other members of the "Os Tres Grandes" Benfica and Sporting. Porto are doing something right in the set piece department with quality set piece takers in Telles, Layun and Torres for example and also Marcano and Felipe who are able to attack their deliveries with a lot of success. Incredibly the pair have been involved in 10 shots logged as big chances this season only being beaten by strike partners Andre Silva and Soares.
Juventus have conceded 7 goals from headers this season and are missing key man Bonucci at the back tonight. Some of there problems have stemmed from individual errors and Porto will be hoping to expose Alex Sandro and Lichtsteiner who can be suspect positionally at set plays.
Marcano to score anytime @ 20/1 Bwin
Felipe to score anytime @ 20/1 Bwin
-
1.30 Leopardstown - Who's That @ 9/1 Ladbrokes
-
2.45 Thurles - Sharps Choice @ 11/4 Bet365
-
16 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
Sedgefield
Trainer Kenneth Slack has a decent record at Sedgefield and has had 10 winners from 35 runners over hurdles.
In 2017 he has had only 8 runners over hurdles and produced 2 winners, 3 seconds and a third.
On Monday he saddles just one runner
2.00 Sedgefield: Onwiththeparty
My mate is always talking up Kenneth Slack. Don't have too many bets in the UK myself but he sounds like a promising trainer.
-
Sutton Place thrashed Supasundae who has been improving steadily through the season despite giving him weight. That was a monster performance I think and he wouldn't look out of place in a Champion Hurdle. 10lbs well in he could take a ton of stopping.
-
4.30 Punchestown - Clitandre @ 11/8 SkyBet
-
1.30 Musselburgh - Soldier in Action @ 7/2 Betway
-
6 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Arsenal are the one Premier League side I never bet on. One week they are slamming teams 5-0 and the next they are losing at home to relegation battlers. Totally unpredictable. Arsene Wenger seems to really struggle against managers like Conte so I can see Chelsea getting the win now his side is more settled compared to earlier in the season. It will be close but a narrow win is likely.
Wenger beat Conte 3-0 in their only meeting to date as far as I know?
-
1 minute ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Huge call but it certainly has weight. It's an interesting time for Klopp at Liverpool. He is acting the same as he was when things started to go wrong at Dortmund. I just don't think he bought effectively enough in the summer to strengthen the defence. Totally agree that this is a game that Hull could very well win. I'm tempted by the Asian Handicap 0.
Liverpool are fine I think. They've lost a few cup games but in the league bar the Swansea game they've been pretty good considering they've been missing two key players in Mane and Coutinho recently. Squad depth is the issue for me but now they only have the league to focus on and I expect them to finish the season strongly. This is more a bet because I believe Hull's improvement has been underestimated rather than a bet against Liverpool although I do feel they're slightly underrated in big games but possibly slightly overrated against the weakest sides.
-
Short priced Mullins favourite here but the odds on market leader makes it a decent each way betting heat. De Bromhead is having a terrific season and does well with his first time up hurdlers so I'll chance his each way at the prices.
1.20 Clonmel - White Lilac e/w @ 17/2 Bet365
-
Hull City v Liverpool
Like I said midweek Hull have improved massively under Marco Silva. Their shot ratio is much better and yet again they were better than a relegation side when getting a draw against Man Utd in Old Trafford. Liverpool are better against sides who tend to come at them more which is why their record against the top 6 is so impressive but have been involved in the two of the four biggest shocks this season at the bookie's prices when losing at home to Swansea and away at Bournemouth. At the prices I think Hull are good value to take something from this game and again I'll dutch the draw and home win.
0.8pts Hull Win @ 7/1 Betfair
1.2pts Draw @ 4/1 Paddy Power
- pulsar12, Pep004, StevieDay1983 and 1 other
-
4
-
Man Utd v Hull City
Hull have improved significantly under new coach Marco Silva and look ovepriced here. Their shot ratio is much better than before and they matched Chelsea at Stamford Bridge up until the final few minutes last time. I don't think the market has caught onto their improvement and I'll dutch the draw and away win here.
0.5 pts Hull Win @ 18/1 Betfair
1.5 pts Draw @ 7/1 Betfair
-
Liverpool v Chelsea
Chelsea have been riding their luck a bit lately converting their shots at a very high rate. Klopp has an exceptional record against the top 6 times losing just once and I don't think that's a coincidence. Liverpool are suited to playing bigger teams much like his Dortmund side were as they tend to have less possession and can use their press to catch teams on the counter attack. Although they have faltered a bit recently they've had to do a lot of squad rotation with cup games and now back with their full first team available (Mane on the bench) I think they're the value here. The draw no bet on Liverpool at home looks a good play at the prices.
Liverpool (0) @ 1.83 BetVictor
-
On 1/11/2017, 3:14:16, arsenalfh said:
I thought the same after his reappearance but just look at how he absolutely destroyed Coneygree in the Betfair. For whatever reason he didn't run his race in the King George but the talk that Thistlecrack broke him is complete rubbish. From 4 to 3 out Thistlecrack only ran 4L quicker than 152 rated Might Bite despite the latter going considerably faster during the first part of the race. There's no way that is quick enough to ruin Cue Card's race and I believe he just wasn't right on the day causing him to run well below form. He's definitely a better horse at Haydock and Cheltenham too anyway.
The King George form is bad, the time was poor and Cue Card has an excuse. His Betfair Chase thrashing of Coneygree is the best form in the book and if he's anything like 16s or 20s when firms go NRNB that will be e/w bet of the century with the Lexus throwing up nothing of note.
Thistlecrack clearly stays well but from what I've seen over fences I think 2m 5f might be his optimum trip. Still doesn't jump exceptionally well and I think at this stage he's looking a little exposed over fences. His jumping is still iffy and since the Gold Cup was always the plan I'm sure they had him well schooled and forward at the start of the season. So although he's lightly raced I'm not sure if there's more improvement in him unless he drops in trip which is completely out of the question anyway.
All aboard the Cue Card train.
-
On 1/6/2017, 6:38:56, arsenalfh said:
I'm doing some statistical analysis on the Portuguese league and have found that Porto are quite reliant on Andre Silva and Diogo Jota for goals. Their midfielders just don't chip in at all especially with Brahimi gone for the month to play for Algeria. Porto tend to dominate and win a lot of set pieces which interestingly makes the two centre backs 3rd and 4th most likely to score in my expected goals model. Sample size isn't that big and my model isn't going to be perfect but at 12/1 I think there's a fair bit of value there.
Pacos de Ferreira v Porto - Marcano to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill & Felipe to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill
Marcano scored this weekend. Worth keeping this up at least until Brahimi gets back who would slot in ahead of the centre backs.
Starters from the Moreirense game:
-
2.20 Wolverhampton - Costa Percy e/w @ 40/1 Betfair
The two favourites in the maiden at 2.20 look a bit exposed to me and I'm happy enough to take them on with Costa Percy. Burke's improve a ton for the run so he should be a nice bit of value. The step up in trip should also suit him well.
-
5.00 Newcastle - Chiclet @ 16/1 SportingBet
Gracious John might be a solid favourite but at the prices I can't get away from Chiclet who makes the trip from Ireland for Tracey Collins who has a fantastic record on the all weather. With the mares allowance she's 4th best in the field and is also 4th best on RPRs and given the trainer looks a big price at 16s.
-
Well 16 or 20/1 was never going to happen anyway.
Don Cossack retired.
-
3 hours ago, Jimmy2shoes said:
Agree and he loves the place, but i cant help but feel age is not on his side, I've been a Cue Card fan from day one so i hate even saying that, I'll be HAPPY just seeing him in the flesh, he's a fantastic horse and owes his fans nothing, my nightmare would be attending Cheltenham for the very first time and watching him win.
Would need counselling after that.
I thought the same after his reappearance but just look at how he absolutely destroyed Coneygree in the Betfair. For whatever reason he didn't run his race in the King George but the talk that Thistlecrack broke him is complete rubbish. From 4 to 3 out Thistlecrack only ran 4L quicker than 152 rated Might Bite despite the latter going considerably faster during the first part of the race. There's no way that is quick enough to ruin Cue Card's race and I believe he just wasn't right on the day causing him to run well below form. He's definitely a better horse at Haydock and Cheltenham too anyway.
The King George form is bad, the time was poor and Cue Card has an excuse. His Betfair Chase thrashing of Coneygree is the best form in the book and if he's anything like 16s or 20s when firms go NRNB that will be e/w bet of the century with the Lexus throwing up nothing of note.
-
Cue Card @ 20/1 is so tempting but connections are talking about the Ryanair? Watch him in last years Gold Cup and you can't possibly consider going for the lesser prize. He was cantering before the fall.
-
3.40 Fontwell - Milzipa @ 7/1 Bet365
Cheltenham Tuesday - 14th March 2017
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Cheltenham Festival: Day 1 Preview
In the Supreme I like Melon. I think it's a weak enough renewal and he'll be underrated because of his inexperience and form when he's probably jumped more hurdles than any of them and is the one Mullins clearly thinks is the best. Mullins is just unreal at prepping them at home and I think it's underrated angle by the betting public. Just look at his record getting horses to the festival to win off long breaks, his record with horses first time out and off long breaks. Whatever he does at home works and I reckon Melon has the beating of the Irish horses. I never really liked Ballyandy who is probably the best on form who only has a sole win over hurdles and looks slow a lot of the time.
Forest Bihan looks the pick each way or without Altior in the Arkle. Improving and was impressive when absolutely flying home winning at Doncaster last time. He beat a few of his rivals tomorrow there and with lots of front running types that might burn each other out fighting Altior so his hold up running style is another positive.
The Ultima Handicap Chase could go to Holywell who has an unbelievable record at the festival no matter how poor his form is coming into Cheltenham. He's won this, the Pertemps and ran a cracker in the Gold Cup before so should go well. Can't resist backing Junction Fourteen at a massive price after his run at Ascot last time. That was back in autumn but he certainly showed he stays and unexposed over this trip with Leighton Aspell taking over he may improve a few pounds. Lavelle also has a terrific record getting this horse ready fresh so he has a chance provided they don't go too quick up front trying to get position on the sharper old course.
Yanworth has the 2nd best piece of form in the Champion Hurdle and should be suited by the stiffer test. Buveur D'air, Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir are progressive but haven't achieved all that much. The latter could well be a triple Grade 1 winner but Footpad got pretty close to him last time, I don't think Nichols Canyon likes Leopardstown and beating Irving in the Fighting Fifth is not Champion Hurdle form.
You would have to be mental to back Moon Racer I think. Miles off what is required and is a novice who comes here off a massive break.
Yanworth might just be too good for My Tent Or Yours but his jumping may put him on the back foot before staying on so he's no betting proposition at 5/2. My Tent Or Yours run last year behind Annie Power is the best form on offer and Henderson always has him spot on for this day so it would be no surprise to see him spring back to form. Aidan Coleman's softer riding style may suit him more than Geraghty's which is another positive and I think he'll be very hard to keep out of the frame.
In the Mares Hurdle I reckon Limini will be tough to beat. Very impressive last day visually and on the clock and is still relatively unexposed unlike Vroum Vroum Mag and Apples Jade who look like they've reached their level. Can't see anything else getting in the frame and Limini will probably be tough to beat.
1.30 Cheltenham - Melon @ 10/3 Stan James
2.10 Cheltenham - Forest Bihan e/w @ 22/1 Bet365
2.50 Cheltenham - Holywell e/w @ 11/1 Bet365 & Junction Fourteen e/w @ 50/1 BetVictor
3.30 Cheltenham - My Tent Or Yours e/w @ 20/1 BetBright
4.10 Cheltenham - Limini @ 7/4 Betway