arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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Royal Ascot - Day 3
Again it looks like we may have the ludicrous stand side bias on the straight course after watering overnight. The going stick reads - stand: 9.0, centre: 8.3 and far side: 8.6. The stand side reading is pretty much the same as yesterday yet the far side has gone down 0.4 so it's almost as if the clerk didn't water the stand's side. Really amateur stuff going on at what is meant to be the premier horse racing festival in the world.
With that in mind and all the principles in the Albany drawn low I think it's worth taking them on each-way with Bet365 going 4 places. Actress was highly rated but has firmly been put in her place by favourite Alpha Centauri twice already. However as we've seen so often already this meeting seemingly exposed O'Brien runners just keep improving as witnessed with 66/1 shot Spirit of Valour in the Jersey and also Taj Mahal yesterday. She's slowly been improving and if she's on the right side of the track might just out run her price.
Although Caravaggio looks tough to beat in the Commonwealth Cup and both Harry Angel and Blue Point solid bets to follow her home; it's worth taking a look at Spencer's mount at triple figure odds to run a mighty race. He already has two wins on the straight course at big odds this year and like I said yesterday is a big positive to any of his mounts chances.Visionary has been progressive this year and won last time out on soft going, ground I'm sure wouldn't have suited. Running on a fast surface today should bring out more improvement and with the booking of Spencer he should run well.
Finally in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes over 1m 4f Top Tug should run well at the prices. Alan King has a very good record in these events with 52 wins to 43 expected and his runner was an impressive winner last time out. If he can build on that again he's sure to run a good race.
2.30 Ascot - Actress 1pt e/w @ 40/1 Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
3.40 Ascot - Visionary 2pts e/w @ 100/1 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot - Top Tug 2pts e/w @ 16/1 Stan James (4 places, 1/4 odds)
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8.25 Bath - Downtown Rebel @ 11/1 Bet365
Hasn't shown much in Ireland in maidens and then first time in a handicap but runs here off 54 and looks the type that might be underestimated by the handicapper coming across the border. Trainer is a positive too and looks worth a shot.
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On 6/16/2017 at 9:24 AM, BillyHills said:
I think Royal Ascot this year looks harder than ever, apart from one or two shorties like Churchill and Ribchester.
The big handicaps are very competitive as per, and this year the 2yo races will be more open than usual, i have never witnessed so many well fancied 2yo favourites getting beaten and it wouldn't surprise me to see some upsets in that division.
It may well pay to stick to the Pattern races where the form is pretty solid.
I like Big Orange at 12/1 (bet365) for the Gold Cup on Thursday, i'm just not sure about the favourite here and i'm pretty sure they will shorten up a few horses before the day of the race. It could be a bit of value. He will love the fast ground, the forecast is for it to be dry all week.
Great shout.
Definitely was a bit of value on the day going off something around half the price.
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11 hours ago, arsenalfh said:
Royal Ascot - Day 3
Just another update for later. The going stick reads - stand: 9.1, centre: 8.6, far: 9.0 and going by the first race the track looks fair although no one went down the middle.
I mentioned Jamie Spencer's record on the straight course yesterday and he's just picked up the ride on Bless Him in the Britannia later over the straight mile. He's 35 actual wins to 21 expected given the odds of the horses he's ridden and is clearly a massive positive to any horse's chance on the straight course. He shaped as if the mile would suit last time despite running keen through inexperience and the bigger field may help him settle better. With Spencer jocked up he's worth a bet at the prices.
5.00 Ascot - Bless Him 2pts e/w @ 50/1 Sportingbet
Cheers lads, always nice to share a big winner. I was actually on the train heading into work so couldn't see much on a bad quality stream and really didn't have a clue what was going on especially as the Bet365 app had him down with a black cap. I basically followed a horse with red silks and a black cap that was tailed off and thought I had done my money before the commentator screamed his name when he hit the front a furlong out. Made it all the more sweeter in a way.
Not looking likely I'll have much for tomorrow at Ascot but i'll have a look through the card and see if I can pick anything out.
Bets: 19
Profit: +86.95pts
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Royal Ascot - Day 3
Just another update for later. The going stick reads - stand: 9.1, centre: 8.6, far: 9.0 and going by the first race the track looks fair although no one went down the middle.
I mentioned Jamie Spencer's record on the straight course yesterday and he's just picked up the ride on Bless Him in the Britannia later over the straight mile. He's 35 actual wins to 21 expected given the odds of the horses he's ridden and is clearly a massive positive to any horse's chance on the straight course. He shaped as if the mile would suit last time despite running keen through inexperience and the bigger field may help him settle better. With Spencer jocked up he's worth a bet at the prices.
5.00 Ascot - Bless Him 2pts e/w @ 50/1 Sportingbet
- BillyHills, Jimmy2shoes and DanV89
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I made a 32Red account the other day and placed one bet. Now I'm trying to have 20 quid each-way on Moritzburg in the 5.00 at Ascot at 80/1 and my stake needs to be sent for approval.
The bookmaking industry is quite frankly a joke these days. All firms are interested in is recruiting mug punters for casino games and long accumulators and the principles of balancing the books and taking in large sums to ensure profitable outcomes seem long gone.
If 32Red are are not willing to lay 20 quid each-way in a big handicap at Royal Ascot on an 80/1 shot why aren't they offering a shorter price?
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2.30 As: Mcerin
3.05 As: Mirage Dancer
3.40 As: Gracious Diana
4.20 As: Sweet Selection
5.00 As: Lightening Fast
5.35 As: Homesman
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1 hour ago, corky said:
love this, arsenalfh, good luck, will watch with interest, even tho im on the nose better
I usually bet on the nose but a lot of my bets here will be each-way because the bookies will be offering enhanced places and the handicaps will have 4 places at least as well. This puts massive value on the place part of the bet in a lot of cases.
I like this statistical approach too. I used it in maiden races backing trainers that had good records with newcomers last year and it worked really well. I did well enough from my own judgement in handicaps last year but my profit in those was nearly wiped out by my bets in pattern races strangely enough.
This season I'm almost betting exclusively through statistical angles. My 4pt bets here are backed by these angles while the 2pt bets are my own judgement.
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9.00 Wexford - Nemean Lion @ 4/1 SkyBet
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Royal Ascot - Day 3
As I have the entire week I'll be sticking with the Ward 2 year old in the opening Norfolk Stakes. McErin was beaten the last day but broke a bit slowly and had to use up valuable energy to get to the front. He should be able to get to the front here as European horses aren't so quick from stalls and although he's been running on dirt he has reportedly taken really well to grass. As I alluded to above, Spencer has an exceptional record on the straight course at Ascot but unfortunately I've only dug out the stats now. He's incredibly has 34 wins to 21 expected and is clearly a massive upgrade to any horses chances on the straight course as his style of riding just suits so well. He rides Rock Of Estonia who cost 90,000gns and although unbeaten, has only won two minor events. That being said he is capable of better especially with Spencer on board and is worth an each-way bet with firms going 4 places.
The following two races are no bets for me although I thought Benbatl shaped well in the Derby on his last start. He was given a poor ride from Oisin Murphy but he's jocked up again and is a bit shorter than I would like. He might have been interesting if someone like De Sousa took over. The Ribblesdale doesn't look a great renewal and with several in with chances I'll leave that race alone too.
I'm happy to take on Order Of St George with an each-way selection in the Gold Cup. He's the class act here and will take a lot of beating but he can be a bit ungenuine so looks worth taking on. Big Orange and Simple Verse have shown their best form over 1m 4f and 1m 6f so may not be guaranteed stayers over this marathon trip. I've gone for Sweet Selection who won the Cesarewitch on his final start last year and a Group 3 on his reappearance this time around. He's clearly improving, will stay the trip and loves fast ground so should run well at the prices.
There seemed to be a bias towards the stands side but it's impossible to know whether the same will occur tomorrow and you're better off forgetting about the draw when betting the night before. It's almost as if they forgot to water the near side and the opposite could easily happen tomorrow. Real amateur stuff on the big stage. Not going to run through the stats again as they're their to see in previous posts but I'll be backing the Irish horses in the Britannia and King George V. Both Lightening Fast and Moritzburg are unexposed and open to plenty of improvement looking worthy of an each-way play. Finally in the last race two Ballydoyle runners look worthy of attention and carry similar profiles to today's Sandringham second place. Another to consider is outsider of the field Twin Star who comes over representing the Lavery yard who do really well in handicaps.
2.30 Ascot: McErin 4pts @ 5/1 Betfair
2.30 Ascot: Rock Of Estonia 2pts e/w @ 40/1 Coral (4 places, 1/5 odds)
4.20 Ascot: Sweet Selection 1pt e/w @ 16/1 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
5.00 Ascot: Lightening Fast 2pts e/w @ 20/1 Betvictor (5 places, 1/4 odds)
5.00 Ascot: Moritzburg 2pts e/w @ 40/1 Betvictor (5 places, 1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot: Homesman 2pts e/w @ 14/1 William Hill (4 places, 1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot: Utah 2pts e/w @ 16/1 Coral (4 places, 1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot: Twin Star 2pts e/w @ 40/1 Ladbrokes (4 places, 1/4 odds)
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Frustrating day with Rain Goddess being touched off in the last by a Spencer masterclass. I forgot how well he rode the Ascot straight course and the stats back this up.
Thought Elleval ran well from a bad draw and is one to keep an eye on in the future over a stiff mile on fast ground. No luck with the Ward two year olds but he's got another interesting contender tomorrow.
Bets: 11
Profit: -12.05
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Have to say I'm a bit concerned about the stand side bias for a few of my selections in the handicaps. Going stick from this morning reads: 8.7: stand 8.5: centre and 8.4 far side. Elleval in 3, Bean Fheasa in 1 and Drumfad Bay in 9 although Rain Goddess has a nice draw. Hopefully the jockeys are aware of this and tack across.
How hard can it be to water evenly across the track? The track was very fair yesterday but it's all changed since they added 5mm of water overnight.
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2.30 As: Escobar
3.05 As: Happy Like A Fool
3.40 As: Smart Call
4.20 As: Ulysses
5.00 As: Elleval
5.35 As: Rain Goddess -
Royal Ascot - Day 2
Decent start yesterday and we begin with a strong looking Jersey Stakes on the Wednesday. Le Brivido is a strong favourite as he was just touched off in the Poulains when worn down by subsequent Prix du Jockey Club winner Brametot in the closing stages. Dream Castle and Daban represent the English Classic form and the latter shaped like this drop in trip will suit. However the loss of Silvestre de Sousa is a negative in this case who rode him in the Guineas and is who I believe the best jockey around. Not sure about the strength of the 1000 Guineas but Daban also deserves respect nonetheless.
Like yesterday it's worth focusing on place bets with several firms offering enhancements on each-way bets and I think Escobar could go well at a price. He didn't seem to want to go past the winner of the Heron Stakes the last day but he's lightly raced and was a coltish 2 year old last year so I'm inclined to give him the benefit of doubt and put it down to inexperience. The stiff mile at Sandown may not have been in his favour either and Ryan Moore was able to dictate from the front on the winner so he had to overcome several negatives that day too. The stiff 7f on really fast ground should be right up his street and Escobar looks a good each-way bet at the prices.
In the Queen Mary the home challenge looks rather weak with a Brighton maiden winner the favourite to take on the American filly and Treasuring who Lyons described as "never perceived her being good enough to partake at this level" the leader of the Irish challenge. I mentioned Ward's record with 2 year olds over 5f yesterday and although his pair were a little disappointing the numbers stand at 4.55 expected wins to 8 actual wins. In a weak looking contest it's worth keeping faith with the short priced Happy Like A Fool.
The next two races look tough and hard to get a handle on. Qemah has questions to answer after a poor reappearance at Lingfield while Smart Call and Usherette look priced right although there are some doubts about the ground for the latter. In the feature race Highland Reel is a worthy favourite but again he seems to relish the stamina test over 1m 4f so dropping in trip is a little concerning. But again it's hard to make a confident selection against him as the really fast ground is a bit of a worry for a big horse like Jack Hobbs and Ulysses needs to step up again. Place claims can be made for most of the others so I will keep the powder for the concluding handicaps.
I'll follow a similar theme in these handicaps all week. I noted the record of Irish horses yesterday and Thomas Hobson duly obliged when bolting up in the Ascot Stakes. Elleval runs here in the Royal Hunt Cup for David Marnane and a stiff, well run mile on fast ground should be ideal for him. He hasn't met these conditions in a long time but showed he is in good heart when running free beaten just 2 lengths in a handicap at Cork 2 starts back and I think he's a cracking bet at the prices. The record for Irish trained horses in British handicaps over a mile or further now stands at 27.05 expected with 48 actual wins.
Finally in the Sandringham Handicap we have a few Irish contenders. I'll scratch Asking as Ana O'Brien takes the ride and she's 0 wins from 56 runs in races classed 1 or 2 on prize money. I get the feeling if Asking had a real chance Heffernan or Donnacha would take the ride as the second and third string jockeys and I think Ana O'Brien really just gets the rides on runners with little chance looking at her record. I would take her booking as a negative but there are 3 others to focus on. Rain Goddess has a good chance for Ryan Moore and is progressing well run from run. The stiff straight mile should be ideal and she has a good chance here. Drumfad Bay has been running good races in stakes company and now in handicaps up in trip over a mile we could see the best of him. Finally Bean Fheasa for Jim Bolger should run well on this firm ground. His overall profile is patchy but on his sole run on good to firm he won a Group 3 at Leopardstown fairly comfortably and that bodes well for him in these conditions.
2.30 Ascot - Escobar 1pt e/w @ 25/1 Bet365
3.05 Ascot - Happy Like A Fool 4pts @ 11/10 Betfred
5.00 Ascot - Elleval 2pts e/w @ 66/1 Betvictor (5 places, 1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot - Rain Goddess 2pts e/w @ 10/1 Bet365 (5 places,1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot - Drumfad Bay 2pts e/w @ 16/1 Bet365 (5 places,1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot - Bean Fheasa 2pts e/w @ 18/1 Bet365 (5 places,1/4 odds)
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Good first day but it's a shame that two of my big bets didn't really perform with Nootka Sound being especially disappointing. Thomas Hobson was particularly impressive and easily looks Group race class.
Bets: 5
Profit: +2.95pts
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8.20 Naas - Bouquet Garni @ 5/1 Bet365
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Royal Ascot - Day 1
Throughout the season I'll try and keep this thread updated with my bets for the big summer festivals and also a running total to track any profit or loss. First off we have the Tuesday at Royal Ascot which is one of the best days racing around and with several firms offering enhanced places it's worth having a couple of bets.
Ribchester looks tough to beat in the Queen Anne but is a short enough price as a free going horse drawn wide. I can't see Lightning Spear reversing the form but Mutakayyef improved markedly last year culminating in some excellent placed efforts at York behind Postponed where he was slightly hampered and also at Woodbine. He's still relatively lightly raced and looks a good each way bet at the prices with the rest of the field looking distinctly ordinary.
The Coventry looks a tough race to solve and I have no strong opinion. Similarly in the King's Stand I won't have a bet as I have 2 ante post bets running in Signs Of Blessing and Cotai Glory. The St. James's Palace Stakes sees an interesting match up between the 2000 Guineas first and second. Barney Roy didn't seem to take with Newmarket that day struggling with the undulations and should be more at home here at Ascot. He is also lightly raced and is open to more improvement than Churchill. That being said the Ballydoyle raider is tough horse that always seems to find more when required and is a deservedly short priced favourite. However with little other competition to these two I can't resist an each way bet on Barney Roy who looks good value to finish in the first 3.
It's hard not to love big field Ascot handicaps and the Ascot Stakes looks an intriguing contest with the top jumps trainers switching codes to have a shot at this big prize. Several look like they have chances but Thomas Hobson looks the most likely winner here for me and is a solid bet at the prices. Irish horses have an outstanding record in British flat handicaps over a mile or further winning 47 times to the 27 expected when you calculate their chance of winning using Betfair SP since 2012.
Finally we finish with the Windsor Castle Stakes over the minimum distance. From what I have seen from Wesley Ward's 2 year olds over here they are all extremely quick but don't stay further than the 5f trip. We saw Lady Aurelia struggle to hold on over 6f in France before getting beaten in the Cheveley Park and like her Acapulco also look all speed as a 2 year old. This is actually backed up in the data albeit over a small sample as Ward doesn't have a single 2 year old winner in Britain over 6f with 1.57 expected. However with 2 year olds in 5f sprints he has a spectacular record with 8 actual wins against 4.3 expected. Although Coolmore's expensive purchase Declarationofpeace has attracted support today, he might just find the Ward 2 year olds a little too precocious and with the latter's record I'll be backing both of his.
2.30 - Mutakayyef 1pt e/w @ 13/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
4.20 - Barney Roy 1pt e/w @ 5/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
5.00 - Thomas Hobson 2pts e/w @ 6/1 Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
5.35 - Nootka Sound 4pts @ 5/1 Betfair
5.35 - Elizabeth Darcy 4pts @ 11/1 Betfair
- BillyHills, corky and Sir Puntalot
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2.30 As: Mutakayef
3.05 As: Denaar
3.40 As: Alpha Delphini
4.20 As: Barney Roy
5.00 As: Thomas Hobson
5.35 As: Nootka Sound -
4.25 Sandown - Shamrokh @ 25/1 Bet365
Appleby usually improves horses coming from other yards and after being gelded with only a handful of starts under his belt this looks a potentially progressive type who's too big a price.
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Any final thoughts before the declarations? Any races you feel may cut up and worth a play ante-post?
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8.20 Leopardstown - Typhoon Rising @ 20/1 BetVictor
Lyons has a good record running horses in handicaps first time and although this looks a competitive contest he has a chance off a low weight. South African jockey Steyn takes the ride with Keane unable to do the weight.
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6.55 Hamilton - Ruth Melody @ 9/1 888sport
Ran well in a couple of maidens and on handicap debut must have some sort of squeak here in a weak enough contest after making the trip over to Scotland.
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7.20 Lingfield - Mccools Gold @ 7/2 Bet365
Festival Fever
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Broke even yesterday with Top Tug placing in the last.
Bets: 22
Profit: +86.95pts