arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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2.00 Windsor - Give Em A Clump @ 8/1 Bet365
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Tocco D'Amore winning the last at Naas couldn't have been more impressive. Going around Diodorus and Lightning Fast cost her a ton of gorund but she's still hacked up as easy as you like.
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Naas Preview
I like the Bolger newcomer Moltoir in the first who might be more forward than his rivals. In the 2.55 I think An Saighduir could outrun his odds off 93 after running well in a British sprint handicap off 98 at the end of last season which are usually stronger races than what we have over here. He was poor on his reappearance but traveled with plenty of zest before weakening at the finish to be well beaten. Declan McDonagh was easy on him at the end though and given he came on a ton for the run last year maybe at 10 years of age he needs the outing to put him straight so I'll take a chance on that at big prices. Finally in the 4.40 handicap Bold Thady Quill ran well on his last start staying on when poorly placed so up in trip off 4lbs lower I reckon he's well set to run a big race at 14/1 and Condon usually has them fit first time up.
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4.40 Naas - Bold Thady Quill @ 14/1 BetVictor
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In the Grand National I might as well have a few with 365 considering they give you half your stake back. Generally looking for a horse that attacks their fences and looks to relish jumping as they're the ones who are likely to take to the test. Rogue Angel fits the bill and stays so that's one. Highland Lodge also looks a good bet for the same reasons. The other two I like are not definite stayers but Double Shuffle is a fine jumper and has improved with increasing tests of stamina this season. If anything he looks like he could do with further after staying last time at Kempton after blundering 3 out. Stellar Notion is a lovely big horse that should relish the fences and the good ground should help him like Double Shuffle with the trip and both of those look sure to give you a run for your money at least.
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5.45 Kempton - Les Arceaux @ 9/2 Ladbrokes
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Very testing at Cork as usual this time of year but a few I think should go well. Gymkhana did me a big favour last week at Naas and I see no reason why he can't follow up today in Listed company. He loves this ground and is still very unexposed. Downforce will probably come on for the run while Great Minds is inconsistent and obviously fragile but has talent if he can put it all together. Wouldn't trust him at the prices however. Only Mine has also run to a high level but I just think she might have been flattered when beating Washington DC.
It's wise to stick with the Lyons newcomers in maidens so Mollie The Moo should have a chance at 13/2 in the maiden at 3.45. Later in the handicaps Stack should have Balcony spot on and is in great form with some good results at Naas last week. She looks progressive unlike her competitors and will relish conditions at a nice 6/1 with 4 places on offer. Finally in the concluding race Future Frontier should go well for Condon who usually does well this time of year. Loves testing ground and is now down to a mark of 59 after running well in the mid to high 60s last season. Double figure prices look a nice bit of value.
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Over at Doncaster in the 5.05 there is a very competitive 3 year old handicap. Khalidi is probably a bit short given its competitive nature and the Godolphin horses are likely to need the run so down at a nice double figure price I expect Mushaireb to run well. An expensive purchase for Al Shaqab Racing, he won first time up at Newcastle when deservedly being handed the race. He picked up again nicely after losing significant momentum and looks to have a promising future. Given he's trained by Fahey he should be race fit and at 11/1 on Bet365 he looks worth a bet.
5.05 Doncaster - Mushaireb @ 11/1 Bet365
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Over at Doncaster in the 5.05 there is a very competitive 3 year old handicap. Khalidi is probably a bit short given its competitive nature and the Godolphin horses are likely to need the run so down at a nice double figure price I expect Mushaireb to run well. An expensive purchase for Al Shaqab Racing, he won first time up at Newcastle when deservedly being handed the race. He picked up again nicely after losing significant momentum and looks to have a promising future. Given he's trained by Fahey he should be race fit and at 11/1 on Bet365 he looks worth a bet.
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Take To Heart should go well for Henderson in the first at Ascot. Ignored by Nico De Boinville for a more experienced type but well bred and should be ready to go. Looks like a good bet at 11/1 in numerous places.
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Doncaster Preview - Lincoln Meeting
I'm all over the Fahey horses tomorrow to be honest. As I mentioned in the Lincoln thread, in March and April he has 1.25 actual winners to expected at a 17% strike rate over the last 9 seasons. In the Cammidge Birchwood should be suited going down in trip and has the best form running well up to Group 1 level. Absolutely So will probably need the run and Mobsta likes really soft ground which he won't get at a drying Doncaster. Next in the Spring Mile, Another Touch still looks progressive just going 4 years old after some decent efforts last season. Nimr has to prove himself on turf and although Sacred Act looks potentially smart too, he's very fragile so both have negatives at short prices.
A little concerned about the trip for Toscanini but Fahey's record at improving horses is good first time off another trainer and he should be ready to go off a break. He stays 7f well enough at the Curragh and Ascot which are two of the stiffest tracks around and the drying ground give hope things will work out over this distance. On form he's right up there with the market leaders so he's worth a shot at double figure prices. Crazy Horse is the big danger but he hasn't been able to replicate his 7f form over this mile distance. Dolphin Vista in the Lincoln is the one for me, still lightly raced, gelded and reportedly flying at home. Considered the Millman horses because he's a trainer who has them well forward usually but I didn't feel they were well treated. Emell could go well for Hannon too after running a promising race at Wolves last time. He's way better on the turf and was 6th off 5lbs higher last year but he hasn't won in a long time.
In the 2 year old maidens I'm going to swerve a bet as Evans has 2 year olds in both as well as Fahey. His record is not as robust as Fahey's because of the smaller sample and lower strike rate but I'll be following both of their newcomers throughout the season. In the 3 year old maiden the Appleby horse was eye-catching on debut and looks like drifting to a nice price. Really think Hold Sway will appreciate the step up in trip and considering Appleby's improve a ton for the run in general, he could come on significantly over this distance.
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Your 33/1 on Dolphin Vista looks fantastic @richard-westwood. I quite fancy him myself at the current prices with 14/1 available on Betfred and a generous 5 places.
Dolphin Vista is still relatively lightly raced and has been gelded over the winter so is very much open to improvement. Fahey reports him working really well and the fact he's the choice of Paul Hanagan backs this up. Fahey boasts a fine record in the months of March and April with an A/E winners of 1.25 and a healthy strike rate of 17% so I wouldn't be worried about backing his first time up this season.
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Nice to get a winner on the board with Gymkhana who traveled well and put the race to bed well. Although the facilities are very much outdated it's a very nice course with a fantastic view from the stands. The horses come up the straight really close to the stand and there was a good crowd and atmosphere to the place today. Hopefully will get back to Naas soon.
Don't know about the times or the form but those O'Brien maiden winners were hugely impressive visually.
- Jimmy2shoes and BillyHills
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Naas Preview - Lincoln Meeting
First two races I can't see an angle in so I'm happy just to watch. The first handicap of the year is interesting which takes place on the straight 6f course. Gymkhana is very interesting on debut for Ger Lyons. A winner in France this lightly raced type looks a sure improver and his trainer usually has them ready first time out. He's worth an interest but bet of the race is Dinkum Diamond who is first time out for Andy Slattery. He's ran well in parts off this mark and the fact he comes to a trainer who has such a good record improving horses is a big positive.
Following on from that Richard Fahey has a big chance to continue the fantastic British record in handicaps over less than a mile in Ireland. He was my original selection but I missed the price and Red Sabor looks value as one of the outsiders. He'll love the ground and the booking of Lee is another positive.
The Group 3 looks really poor and a watching brief but I like Sea Wolf in the feature Irish Lincoln. He's got two wins on the board for Lyons and has excuses for his two defeats bleeding first before finding himself on the wrong part of the track at Ascot. He'll love the ground and has a great record fresh.
Gold Spinner looks an easy pick in the last at Naas given Ger Lyons' record in such events. Should go well at a price.
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3.30 Meydan - Dubai Turf
In the Dubai Turf I can't believe Zarak is so short because on form he hasn't done much at all. He always seems underpriced because of his pedigree but if you look at his form he has a bit to find with Ribchester and Mutakayyef. Ribchester will cope fine with the step up in trip but at a bigger price I like the latter of the pair. Mutakayyef's run in the Juddmonte International looks really good especially as he was caught too far back off a steady enough pace and also met trouble in running. He then went to Canada and finished in a good third place behind the high class Tepin and certainly wasn't helped by the drop to a mile and starting slowly as he only got going late on. Haggas in general has a good record getting horses ready off a break and back up in trip on good ground he should be primed for a best effort.
Mutakayyef - @ 6/1 SkyBet (4 places)
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3.30 Meydan - Dubai Turf
In the Dubai Turf I can't believe Zarak is so short because on form he hasn't done much at all. He always seems underpriced because of his pedigree but if you look at his form he has a bit to find with Ribchester and Mutakayyef. Ribchester will cope fine with the step up in trip but at a bigger price I like the latter of the pair. Mutakayyef's run in the Juddmonte International looks really good especially as he was caught too far back off a steady enough pace and also met trouble in running. He then went to Canada and finished in a good third place behind the high class Tepin and certainly wasn't helped by the drop to a mile and starting slowly as he only got going late on. Haggas in general has a good record getting horses ready off a break and back up in trip on good ground he should be primed for a best effort.
Mutakayyef - 1pt e/w @ 6/1 SkyBet (4 places)
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Group 1[edit]
Month Race Name Racecourse Distance Age/Sex May Irish 2,000 Guineas Curragh 1m 3yo c&f May Tattersalls Gold Cup Curragh 1m 2f 110y 4yo+ May Irish 1,000 Guineas Curragh 1m 3yo f June Pretty Polly Stakes Curragh 1m 2f 3yo+ f June Irish Derby Curragh 1m 4f 3yo c&f July Irish Oaks Curragh 1m 4f 3yo f July / Aug Phoenix Stakes Curragh 6f 2yo c&f September Matron Stakes Leopardstown 1m 3yo+ f September Irish Champion Stakes Leopardstown 1m 2f 3yo+ September Moyglare Stud Stakes Curragh 7f 2yo f September Vincent O'Brien National Stakes Curragh 7f 2yo c&f September Irish St. Leger Curragh 1m 6f 3yo+ Group 2[edit]
Month Race Name Racecourse Distance Age/Sex May Ridgewood Pearl Stakes Curragh 1m 4yo+ f May Mooresbridge Stakes Curragh 1m 2f 4yo+ June / July Railway Stakes Curragh 6f 2yo June / July Curragh Cup Curragh 1m 6f 3yo+ July Kilboy Estate Stakes Curragh 1m 1f 3yo+ f July Minstrel Stakes Curragh 7f 3yo+ August Debutante Stakes Curragh 7f 2yo f August Futurity Stakes Curragh 7f 2yo September Clipper Boomerang Mile Leopardstown 1m 3yo+ September Blandford Stakes Curragh 1m 2f 3yo+ f September Flying Five Stakes Curragh 5f 3yo+ Sept / Oct Beresford Stakes Curragh 1m 2yo To me that list just highlights the problem we have in Irish flat racing. It's too centralised around the Curragh and if they want the sport to get anywhere near jump racing it needs to be made more accessible as the Curragh just doesn't suit everyone. Naas is a good course and the south of the country has nothing so maybe Cork would be another track that deserves a Group 2.
I wouldn't use the Irish Leger as an excuse to not moving the second day to Leopardstown. In the end it's not a proper classic and is it really that historical? Maybe it's because I'm relatively new to racing but it's not exactly a race I remember too fondly with great horses or anything of the like. The fact that the attendance drops off significantly for day 2 of Irish Champions Weekend makes me think it would be sensible to have both days at Leopardstown. A lot of people come over from England and I just get the feeling that a lot don't bother with the second day but would if it was also at Leopardstown. Not only that but Leopardstown is very fair, produces the best ground and has a fantastic stiff hill that produces exciting finishes and is underused as a flat course in Ireland.
- beaker1, Jimmy2shoes and BillyHills
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Possibly that leaves too little time until the Classics? For example we had Derby 2nd US Army Ranger debut in April last year.
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I love Cheltenham but it has a negative effect on the National Hunt Calendar. Just look at the Betfair Hurdle and Imperial Cup entries compared to the County Hurdle at the festival. Mullins campaigned Douvan around festival and gambled on him running to form there which backfired. He should have been running in races like the Clarence House or Tingle Creek. It's a breadth of fresh air to see Tizzard campaigning horses so boldly and if he didn't Thistlecrack would just be an exciting novice chaser not down in history as a King George winner.
I like both codes but for betting I prefer the flat because I can watch a race in a few minutes and also don't have to judge jumping and the likes. Definitely the longevity of the season is another positive unlike the jumps which has this bad mid season lull prior to Cheltenham.
I go to Leopardstown a lot because I live in Dublin and it's easy to get to for me but since I don't drive getting anywhere else is a lot harder. A lot of the Curragh meetings are on a Sunday where trains are infrequent and the bus isn't great value which is the issue. I just think the pattern races on the flat should be distributed more evenly throughout the top Irish flat courses.
Going to Naas on Sunday for the Lincoln so looking forward to that.
- beaker1 and BillyHills
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Just noticed the Irish Lincoln is next weekend. With all the buzz around the horse racing world with Cheltenham you forget the flat season is about to begin.
The Irish Lincoln takes place at Naas this year with the Curragh being redeveloped. It's nice that some of the smaller tracks are getting a spread of the better races because if we're ever going to get people really excited about flat racing in Ireland it needs to be made more accessible. The Curragh is just too awkward to get to and dominates the pattern calendar.
Unfortunately we have the ridiculous situation that the Irish Derby and the second day of Irish Champions Weekend in particular will be run in front of a capped crowd of 6,000. Great to showcase two of Ireland's best days racing with a capped crowd and in front of a building site. Despite being branded as a weekend event, approximately 10,000 of the people who go to Leopardstown will not be able to go to the Curragh. Both races should have been moved to Leopardstown this year and I would even make the case for moving the second day of Irish Champions Weekend to Leopardstown permanently.
What is everyone looking forward to this year?
- Jimmy2shoes and beaker1
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2.45 Limerick - Samuel French @ 7/1 SportingBet
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3.30 Cheltenham - My Tent Or Yours e/w @ 20/1 BetBright
Monthly Naps - Tuesday April 11th
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
6.45 Tipperary - Tessonna @ 5/1 Stan James