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arsenalfh

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Posts posted by arsenalfh

  1. 3.35 Chester - Golden Spear @ 10/1 StanJames

    The Irish have a great record in these staying handicaps and Martin looks to have a good chance of enhancing this record with Golden Spear who won the November Handicap at Leopardstown on his last start on the flat. The booking of Ryan Moore is another positive and he should go well at the prices.

  2. 6.40 Punchestown - A Toi Phil @ 20/1 Boylesports

    I reckon Disko is a massive lay in the Grade 1 Novice Chase. Those intermediate distance to staying novice chasers kept beating each other earlier in the season and the JLT isn't working out so I'm not sure he's that good and I think Our Duke improved a ton when winning the Irish Grand National. Meade has a woeful 3% strike rate here from 167 runners at 0.44 Betfair actual/expected at Punchestown too. Against Anibale Fly for similar reasons, while Acapella Bourgeois needs it soft, Alpha Des Obeaux has serious bleeding problems, A Genie In A Bottle is another trained by Meade and Velocity Boy isn't good enough. Process of elimination leaves A Toi Phil who is actually probably not far off Disko at his best winning two Grade 2 chases comfortably and also a big handicap at Leopardstown in January. Very patchy but I'm confident he's a good bet in this market.

  3. Preview - Punchestown Day 1

    I'm against the leaders in the market in the handicap hurdle at 4.55 as Roconga looks the type to be overbet being a very good flat horse. I tend to stay away from Martin horses and he has a horrible record here (0.57 Betfair actual/expected from a decent sample) so I can take on Tudor City while Veinard is a bridle horse. Light That is interesting with Harrington in top form but he's a poor flat horse so I have doubts about his raw ability and was smashed in his last two handicap hurdle runs. Doesn't look well handicapped so that leaves Pique Sous for Mullins who looks worth taking a chance on at a big price.

    I reckon Disko is a massive lay in the Grade 1 Novice Chase. Those intermediate distance to staying novice chasers kept beating each other earlier in the season and the JLT isn't working out so I'm not sure he's that good and I think Our Duke improved a ton when winning the Irish Grand National. Meade has a woeful 3% strike rate from 167 runners at 0.44 Betfair actual/expected at Punchestown too. Against Anibale Fly for similar reasons, while Acapella Bourgeois needs it soft, Alpha Des Obeaux has serious bleeding problems, A Genie In A Bottle is another trained by Meade and Velocity Boy isn't good enough. Process of elimination leaves A Toi Phil who is actually probably not far off Disko at his best winning two Grade 2 chases comfortably and also a big handicap at Leopardstown in January. Very patchy but I'm confident he's a good bet in this market.

    4.55 Punchestown - Pique Sous @ 14/1 BetVictor

    6.40 Punchestown - A Toi Phil @ 20/1 Boylesports

  4. Irish Grand National

    Stellar Horse is a massive big horse and a beautiful jumper of a fence. Maybe something was amiss at Aintree but I just think he didn't enjoy the unique test and he can go well just nine days later as he didn't get a hard race. The good ground and stiff Fairyhouse fences should be perfect for him and he's just 3lbs higher than when beaten a neck by A Toi Phil in a valuable handicap at Leopardstown. On that form he's on a decent mark and although there are some doubts about his stamina he shapes like a relentless galloper and if he can get into a good rhythm up front on this decent surface he could get a few in trouble.

    5.00 Fairyhouse - Stellar Notion e/w @ 66/1 Betfair

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