Jump to content
Announcements
** November Poker League Result : 1st ian309, 2nd muttley, 3rd Burnley Joe **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st MrJol, 2nd buga00, 3rd glavintoby, 4th Boulder5111, 5th bobsyerunkle **
** November Nap's Competition Result: 1st andellio, 2nd Saddlesore, 3rd bymatrix, 4th MrJol KO Cup: DonnyFlyer, Most Winners: Astleavista**

arsenalfh

Regular Members
  • Content Count

    1245
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

Posts posted by arsenalfh

  1. Derby Preview

    This years Derby looks wide open with 11 horses within 3lbs of each other on RPRs. Cliffs of Moher and Cracksman are worthy favourites as the leading hopes from the two most powerful stables in both Ireland and Britain but they are probably short enough at the moment. Cracksman only just managed to beat Permian, who definitely has improved since then and Cliffs Of Moher's form ties in with that. The other horse priced at single figures is Eminent who ran a disappointing race in the Guineas after winning the Craven at Newmarket. He looked like he will appreciate the step up in trip but like we saw with Rhododendron in today's Oaks, stepping up half a mile is a tough ask and there are plenty of other unexposed types.

    Given the shape of the race I prefer to look at something at a bigger price. The Dante was run in a quick time and out of the bigger priced horses may be the trial to focus on. Permian finished the stronger running the final 3f in 35.4s (Timeform Sectional Debrief) beating Benbatl by 3/4L who's run seemed to peter out finishing the final 3f in 55.77s. On that basis Permian looks the better prospect stepping up the the Derby trip.

    However I think Benbatl is the one that has been overlooked by the market. He's made startling progress this season winning a maiden at Doncaster on his debut before stepping forward to run a good race in the Craven despite running keen in the early stages. Because of that he looked unlikely to be suited to the Dante test over an extended 10f at this early stage of his career but he made another big step forward to finish 2nd that day, taking after so many other sons of Dubawi who progress so well with racing.

    Although there is a light stamina doubt given the way he finished, that may have been because he still showed bits of inexperience in the early stages running a little free. If he makes another step forward tomorrow and the first time hood helps him he may actually see out the Derby trip just fine like his grand dam who was narrowly beaten in the Oaks.

    Back to the hood, interestingly his trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a terrific record when his horses run with that piece of headgear. From 57 runners in a first time hood, 15 have won with an Actual/Expected winners of 1.41. His other runners in a hood run at a healthy 1.11 Actual/Expected winners from 66 runs.

    With all things considered I reckon Benbatl has been overlooked in the market. Although there is a stamina doubt I think he's young horse learning fast and if the hood does the trick I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see him fighting out the finish. At the prices he's worth a shot with SkyBet top price and offering 5 places.

    4.30 Epsom - Benbatl e/w @ 25/1 SkyBet (5 place)

  2. 2 hours ago, mick bones said:

    PS.  I was wrong to say Paddy and Ladbrokes don't take my bets.  Paddy allows me 15p per bet while Ladbrokes will take the vast sum of 23p per bet. Surely you would think that for the purpose of getting their prices in line they would let me have my grain of corn and then tap the guy on the shoulder whos job it is to keep prices in line. But I'm guessing these prices are all taken from 3rd party services now with little or no human interaction so they don't want any value thieves in their customer list.

    I thought the same but they don't need good punters to adjust their prices anymore as they can just use the exchanges. Easier to use Betfair to set the prices and allow mugs to bet which is a shame.

    The minimum liability bookies must offer in NSW Australia seems to have had a positive effect over there so would be nice to see something similar up here.

  3. 2 hours ago, mick bones said:

    I have cobbled together some random doubles samples from my singles data set, like every other single paired with the one directly after it and another sample set of each bet with the next bet which is 2 bets down the list.  Not very scientific but gives me two random data samples of approx 10,000 doubles bets.  Yes,  varience plays a big part in the results.  With singles alone I was just shy of 30% profit. However first data set of doubles shows profit of 52% with obviously a far inferior strike rate and I do like a good strike rate as part of any betting system. Avg odds for these new data sets is around 22.0   However the other dataset was the other end of the spectrum with profit of 85% !!   So I figure if I were to generate a couple dozen random data sets the returns would converge towards my original estimate.  But with such % margins the skeptic in me tells me I have forgotten to carry the one or some other silly mathematical error.  Bank is going in the predicted direction so that is main thing anyways :)

    Interesting Mick! How would you pair selections together going forward? Would you back them all in doubles? That way you're going to have more money on certain bets which would be an issue.

  4. I'm sure you can make money this way as it sounds you're making the right selections. The big problem here is going to be variance I would say but if you have the bankroll to deal with it this could be a new approach for you. By combining selections the probability is reduced and you're going to have increased variance in your results, ie. longer losing runs. A long losing run could wipe out your betting bank even if you're making good bets so be careful there. Another issue is how you pair your selections together as you may end up doubling the wrong bets together or if you tie them all up have more money on some selections than others. That could turn good bets into bad ones.

    Like you suggested in your first post your best approach would be to simulate random doubles from all your selections and see what comes up. Simulate a big sample of doubles and if possible post the results up here as I would be very interested in what happens. Most of the time you hear multiples are bad and singles are good but if you can deal with the variance in results maybe this is a valid approach?

    On another note it's ridiculous that bookies are refusing £5 and £10 bets off you. Only interested in mug punters these days rather than taking in money on all outcomes and making profit based on their inflated books. 

     

  5. 2.55 York - Toofi @ 33/1 Ladbrokes

    Toofi was a massive eyecatcher the last day at Doncaster on his debut for Butler. On the wrong side of the track he traveled really sweetly but got no sort of run and ended up staying on under a soft ride. He wasn't beaten that far all things considered and he's come on significantly for the run each season so I expect him to strip fitter this time around. He's also down another 2lbs so there are plenty of positives about his chances tomorrow and he looks a cracking bet at the prices.

  6. I'm looking into possibly heading over to England for one of the festivals this flat season or even just a good day of racing.

    What are your favourite courses or festivals when it comes to view of the track, access to the parade ring, facilities and just the experience in general?

  7. Anyone who has some sort of fancy at bigger prices in this race should get a few quid on ante post I reckon. Can't see the race not cutting up.

    Acapulco is out today at the Curragh so it will be interesting if she shows any improvement going to Ballydoyle. She takes on Ardhoomey who has been improving for Lyons.

    Profitable was smashed yesterday by Signs Of Blessing who I mentioned previously as being underappreciated giving weight over 5f. That's the best piece of sprinting form on offer and Rohaut believes he doesn't properly stay the stiff 6f at Ascot so the King's Stand is the target. Looks worth a bet at 14/1 as I can see him going off half the price on the day.

    3.40 Ascot - Signs Of Blessing @ 14/1 Ladbrokes

  8. 4 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

    Balding also has an exceptional record at Chester. Not sure if there's any reason why like the way he gallops his horses at home or maybe he just targets races here. He has 44 wins when compared to 35 wins expected when you calculate their chances using BSP so I've backed all his runners today as well.

    Intransigent: 11th (16/1)

    Max Zorin: 3rd (25/1)

    Duretto: 3rd (15/2)

    Highland Pass: 2nd (7/2)

    St Marys: 1st (14/1)

    Great day for Balding today. Something to keep in mind for future meetings here.

  9. Tribal Path is the sort of horse who looks made for the test around Chester. He breaks extremely quickly and has well over 1f to get to the front before the bend so I don't think stall 10 will pose any problems. His best form is at tight turning tracks like Galway, Listowel and Bellewstown so he'll relish this test around Chester and could put his rivals under pressure front with little time to make up ground up the short run in. On top of that he actually looks to be on a fair mark given he's placed in some decent races off similar ratings. English is a trainer I rate and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan for a while and if he improves a little coming to a track that suits like Chester he looks considerably more likely than the odds suggest. He's quite a strong fancy of mine so I've had a few quid at 33/1 in the first race of the day.

    Balding also has an exceptional record at Chester. Not sure if there's any reason why like the way he gallops his horses at home or maybe he just targets races here. He has 44 wins when compared to 35 wins expected when you calculate their chances using BSP so I've backed all his runners today as well.

  10. 1.50 Chester - Tribal Path @ 33/1 Bet365

    Tribal Path is the sort of horse who looks made for the test around Chester. He breaks extremely quickly and has well over 1f to get to the front before the bend so I don't think stall 10 will pose any problems. His best form is at tight turning tracks like Galway, Listowel and Bellewstown so he'll relish this test around Chester and could put his rivals under pressure front with little time to make up ground up the short run in. On top of that he actually looks to be on a fair mark given he's placed in some decent races off similar ratings. English is a trainer I rate and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan for a while and if he improves a little coming to a track that suits like Chester he looks considerably more likely than the odds suggest.

  11. King's Stand Stakes (Tuesday 20th June)

    This looks a nice ante post betting race with several of the market leaders having other targets or some holes in their form.

    Lady Aurelia heads the betting at 9/2 best priced but is also entered in the Commonwealth Cup. She didn't stay a yard of 6 furlongs last year but did seem to settle better when winning on her reappearance at Keeneland although I would expect her to line up here. The concern I have with her is whether she will train on as Ward has his 2 year olds very forward as we saw with Acapulco who didn't train on a yard.

    Marsha was very impressive the last day at Newmarket and looks rock solid at 6/1 but she might not be that much shorter on the morning of the race given the way bookmakers operate these days. Acapulco looks miles off what is required here based on her recent form and looks a massive lay at 8/1. She never matched her run over course and distance and even that piece of form would likely leave her short here. She's also in foal so we don't know how that will affect her.

    Profitable won this last year but Royal Ascot is usually run on quick ground so he probably won't get his ideal conditions like he did last season. That's enough to put me off him repeating his win. Washington DC has been running well over 5f but 14/1 looks a little short when he's likely going to need to pull out a little more improvement to win here going against his pretty exposed profile.

    If Limato turns up at Royal Ascot he must be near certain to run in the Diamond Jubilee over 6f and you would have to think the same race would be the plan for Quiet Reflection as well as Brando. Caravaggio is probably a near definite runner in the Commonwealth Cup all being well too. Signs of Blessing had a fantastic campaign last year probably not getting the credit he deserved going off big prices despite showing top class form. He remains of interest but he's another who is likely going to stick to 6f contests.

    Goldream and Cotai Glory look the interesting ones at the prices. These are out and out 5f sprinters who love fast ground making them likely runners in this event. The former won this race two years ago but was pulled from the race last season on account of the soft ground and seems to relish the sprint course at Ascot. However at the prices I prefer Cotai Glory who was 2nd behind Profitable last year beaten just a neck and his reappearance can be excused when well beaten by Marsha at Newmarket. He stumbled out of the stalls, raced keen and doesn't seem to like undulating courses. It's possible he might even improve on his run in this last year given that he's a good moving horse and his trainer Charles Hills is adamant he wants fast ground.

    With this ante post market potentially cutting up badly Cotai Glory looks a good bet at 33/1.

    3.40 Ascot - Cotai Glory @ 33/1 Skybet

     

×
×
  • Create New...