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arsenalfh

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Posts posted by arsenalfh

  1. Tramore August Festival - Day 2

    Unfortunately got no time for a write up but have two selections.

    5.35 Tramore - 4pts Forever Dylan @ 11/1 Bet365

    8.15 Tramore - 4pts Some Day Soon @ 11/2 Ladbrokes

  2. Tramore August Festival - Day 1

    Tramore kicks off today in less than an hour and I have two fancies in the opening beginner's chase on the card. Looking at the exchange odds you'll likely get better value later but since time is running out I'll have to put these up now.

    Everyone knows how good De Bromhead is with his chasers but the amount of improvement his horses get first time up over fences is often underestimated by the market. He has 22 expected wins to 30 actual wins with horses under these conditions and it's a system well worth following. In an open race they both should go well.

    5.20 Tramore - Moroval @ 5/1 Bet365

    5.20 Tramore - Guitar George @ 16/1 Bet365

  3. Championship Top Goalscorer

    Wolves have made numerous eye-catching signings this summer but Portuguese pair Ruben Neves and Diogo Jota look particularly impressive acquisitions. The latter was impressive up front for Porto last season and if it wasn't for Griezmann and Correia who play the same role, he would likely be preparing for a Champions League campaign in the Spanish capital.

    Although his actual goals scored numbers don't look extremely impressive, a metric called expected goals gives a much better picture of his goalscoring potential. Jota hit 0.53 expected goals per 90 in Portugal last season which was only marginally lower than Andre Silva who signed for A.C. Milan in a big money move. Furthermore he is priced at just 16/1 to be the top scorer in Italy. Bas Dost wasn't far ahead of Jota either in expected goals figures and he hit an impressive 34 goals in Portugal last season. Jota played considerably less minutes than the pair just mentioned which is another consideration when looking at actual goals scored numbers.

    Wolves have been lining up in 3-4-3 during preseason and don't have much depth up front. Bonatini will have to recapture his Estoril form and the likes of Dicko aren't exactly top quality options. This means Jota has a good chance of getting some minutes in a central position.

    The truth here is that Wolves have signed a Champions League ready forward who is comfortable as a central striker or coming from the left. He's Griezmann like in style who likes playing inbetween the lines and not only has an eye for goal but is a creative force with his dribbling and passing. Stepping down into a weaker league with impressive expected goals figures and there is no way he should be an 80/1 shot in this market.

    Championship Top Goalscorer - Diogo Jota each-way @ 80/1 Skybet (4 places)

  4. 6.15 Windsor - Lamb Chop e/w @ 33/1 William Hill

    Lamb Chop was outpaced before staying on over 6f at Newbury and may need further than the 6f trip here but he's worth chancing at big odds. He's related to some speedy types on his dam's side and his sire Havana Gold has produced some quick and precocious 2 year olds so he might have just been very green on debut. Millman's horses tend to improve a ton for the run and he could outrun big odds here.

  5. 3.00 Newbury - Lady Macapa @ 40/1 Bet365

    Made a really encouraging debut for the Cox yard before disappointing 2nd time out. However perhaps that run can be excused as it was her second run in succession on fast ground and she shows a liking to soft conditions. She gets that today and Cox has a terrific record with older sprinters so she might find a bit of improvement here. In these conditions she's no 40/1 shot.

  6. Killarney July Festival - Day 4

    Jamie Codd has a fantastic record in bumpers. He's essentially a professional riding in amateur races and has picked up a ride in the finale at Killarney. He's 61 actual wins to 49 expected given the horses he's ridden and is a positive to The Abbey's chances later today. Kevin Prendergast's horses often run well fresh too so this one is worth a bet at big odds.

    5.20 Killarney - 2pts The Abbey e/w @ 20/1 BetVictor

     

     

  7. 6.05 Sandown - Tahoo @ 10/3 Bet365

    Ascot Day has the plum draw in stall 1 but he doesn't tend to front run and Tahoo in stall 3 may take advantage. He makes the running and breaks quickly from the gates. If he can grab the rail and get that positional advantage he could be very hard to stop.

  8. On 7/18/2017 at 4:04 PM, arsenalfh said:

    Killarney July Festival - Day 2

    Have a few statistical fancies at the picturesque Killarney racecourse this evening. It's a mixed card with the flat kicking things off before a Grade B handicap chase later on.

    Billy Lee is probably the best jockey on these shores and he has a terrific record when taking over rides from other jockeys. When using Betfair starting prices he's notched up 128 expected wins under these circumstances but incredibly has 164 actual wins. Lee rides the light raced Cristal Icon here who has ran ok on both his starts in handicaps and looks sure to improve up in trip. He's down to 55 now and looks to have a decent shot with Lee taking the reigns.

    Another to consider in the same race is Stack's Aldawayfornothing who runs first time in a handicap. Both father and son have a really good record in handicaps with 78 actual wins to 59 expected. The son Fozzy, also has hit the ground running with horses of this profile winning 2 from 6 runners first time in handicaps this season.

    The next race is a Grade B handicap chase and De Bromhead runs 3. He does really well in summer handicap chases taking advantage while Mullins and Elliott keep their powder dry for the winter months but more interestingly is his record when running 2+ horses in a handicap chase. He has more than double the actual winners to expected (15 against 7) under these circumstances and appears to run a few when really wanting to win a race to great success. It's worth backing all 3 of his horses here for sure.

    7.20 Killarney - Cristal Icon @ 12/1 Bet365

    7.20 Killarney - Aldawayfornothing @ 12/1 Bet365

    7.50 Killarney - Devil's Bride @ 7/1 Bet365

    7.50 Killarney - Killiney Court @ 15/2 BetVictor

    7.50 Killarney - Archive @ 12/1 William Hill

    No luck yesterday. Had one for today at Killarney again but now a non runner.

    Down 20pts yesterday.

    Bets: 32

    Profit: +65.95pts

  9. Killarney July Festival - Day 2

    Have a few statistical fancies at the picturesque Killarney racecourse this evening. It's a mixed card with the flat kicking things off before a Grade B handicap chase later on.

    Billy Lee is probably the best jockey on these shores and he has a terrific record when taking over rides from other jockeys. When using Betfair starting prices he's notched up 128 expected wins under these circumstances but incredibly has 164 actual wins. Lee rides the light raced Cristal Icon here who has ran ok on both his starts in handicaps and looks sure to improve up in trip. He's down to 55 now and looks to have a decent shot with Lee taking the reigns.

    Another to consider in the same race is Stack's Aldawayfornothing who runs first time in a handicap. Both father and son have a really good record in handicaps with 78 actual wins to 59 expected. The son Fozzy, also has hit the ground running with horses of this profile winning 2 from 6 runners first time in handicaps this season.

    The next race is a Grade B handicap chase and De Bromhead runs 3. He does really well in summer handicap chases taking advantage while Mullins and Elliott keep their powder dry for the winter months but more interestingly is his record when running 2+ horses in a handicap chase. He has more than double the actual winners to expected (15 against 7) under these circumstances and appears to run a few when really wanting to win a race to great success. It's worth backing all 3 of his horses here for sure.

    7.20 Killarney - Cristal Icon @ 12/1 Bet365

    7.20 Killarney - Aldawayfornothing @ 12/1 Bet365

    7.50 Killarney - Devil's Bride @ 7/1 Bet365

    7.50 Killarney - Killiney Court @ 15/2 BetVictor

    7.50 Killarney - Archive @ 12/1 William Hill

  10. 20 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

    Newmarket July Festival - Day 3

    Don't think the Diamond Jubilee was the strongest race so giving 6lbs to the 3 year olds makes it tough for them. Although Limato looked unbeatable over a stiff 6f last year he hasn't been running to the same level this time around although he's only had two runs this season.

    The Commonwealth Cup seemed to be a good race with several progressive types and Caravaggio ran out the winner that day. However on sectionals Harry Angel should have gotten closer to him and Cox has a great record in Group races for horses 3 years of age and older with 31 expected winners to 44 actual winners. This suggests he has more improvement in him and he looks too big compared to Caravaggio in the betting.

    With Bet365 going 1/4 odds it's worth taking him each-way against a solid favourite.

    4.35 Newmarket - Harry Angel e/w @ 6/1 Bet365

    Big win for Godolphin taking down an unbeaten Coolmore colt. Harry Angel certainly did that very nicely and shouldn't be inconvenienced by a drop to 5f.

    Bets: 27

    Profit: +85.95pts

  11. Newmarket July Festival - Day 3

    Don't think the Diamond Jubilee was the strongest race so giving 6lbs to the 3 year olds makes it tough for them. Although Limato looked unbeatable over a stiff 6f last year he hasn't been running to the same level this time around although he's only had two runs this season.

    The Commonwealth Cup seemed to be a good race with several progressive types and Caravaggio ran out the winner that day. However on sectionals Harry Angel should have gotten closer to him and Cox has a great record in Group races for horses 3 years of age and older with 31 expected winners to 44 actual winners. This suggests he has more improvement in him and he looks too big compared to Caravaggio in the betting.

    With Bet365 going 1/4 odds it's worth taking him each-way against a solid favourite.

    4.35 Newmarket - Harry Angel e/w @ 6/1 Bet365

  12. 4.50 York - B Fifty Two e/w @ 33/1 William Hill

    B Fifty Two has tumbled down the weights since joining Marjorie Fife being largely disappointing. However, he's been running on ground quicker than ideal and off a mark 17lbs lower than back in April he might just be underestimated in the betting here after the recent rain.

  13. Royal Ascot - Day 5

    Final day of a great festival bar the issues with the ground on certain parts of the straight course. Kicking off with the Chesham the favourite September looks hard to beat. I was at Leopardstown the day she made her debut and she could not have been more impressive. However at the prices I like Highlight Reel who is sure to come on considerably for the run coming from the Michael Bell yard. He's 28 expected wins to 32 actual wins with 2 year olds on their second run and the booking of Spencer is a massive positive so I'll chance him each-way.

    The Hardwicke is a tough puzzle to solve. Dartmouth may not like the ground but Ryan Moore has chosen him over Idaho while Wings Of Desire has some real top class form but has been absent for a long time after a disappointing effort in the Juddmonte which is a concern. With that in mind Dal Harraild looks worth a shot as an improving sort who has proven himself this season but I'm not confident enough to put him up as a selection at 8/1.

    Limato will be hard to beat in the Diamond Jubliee Stakes back on his favoured fast ground but I definitely think Acclaim is worth a bet at the prices. He was very progressive as a 3 year old and as a sprinter he could easily improve further with age. I was impressed with his beating of Lumiere at Newmarket on his last start last season and although he was disappointing in the Lockinge he probably found the mile on soft ground a bit too much of a test. He drops back a full 2f here and might be a 7f horse but this trip at Ascot is as stiff as it gets. In a likely strongly run affair he's worth a shot at sprint trips and the booking of Spencer is a massive positive to his chances again.

    Backing Spencer rides is going to be the theme of the day for me and I like the look of Buckstay in the Wokingham. He's a rock solid horse who loves it here at Ascot and was 5th in this last year off a 1lb higher mark. He might be underestimated here off a break as he loves going fresh and looks a good each-way bet. Another one to consider is Lancelot Du Lac for Dean Ivory who has an excellent record in sprint handicaps. He has 54 actual wins to 40 expected and Lancelot Du Lac runs here 2lbs lower than when 3rd in this in 2015 on similar fast ground.

    2.30 Ascot - Highlight Reel 2pts e/w @ 50/1 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)

    4.20 Ascot - Acclaim 2pts e/w @ 33/1 Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)

    5.00 Ascot - Buckstay 2pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 (5 places, 1/4 odds)

    5.00 Ascot - Lancelot Du Lac 2pts e/w @ 40/1 Bet365 (5 places, 1/4 odds)

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