arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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5.40 Tipperary - Creggs Pipe @ 15/8 Betfair
Now Or Never doesn't look particularly progressive at this stage and although she handles cut she may not want it this testing as her best two runs have been on better ground. She also hasn't been seen for nearly 70 days so there are a few reasons to take her on. Creggs Pipes on the other hand loves this sort of ground and is improving fast so looks a good option to take on the favourite. Tanaza will want quicker ground and Lina De Vega needs to take a big step forward on her 2nd start to get involved and her maiden is not working out as expected.
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4.40 Newbury - Fields of Fortune @ 6/4 Skybet
Fields of Fortune was very green the last day and very slowly away but he stormed home and given he comes from the Hannon stable we should expect a good deal of improvement on his 2nd start. He's easily shown the most ability here and the 2nd fav only ran an average race in a poor contest at Lingfield on his first start.
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1.45 Y: Snoano
2.15 Y: Diploma
2.50 Y: Master Blueyes
3.25 Y: Dream of Dreams
4.00 Y: Shrewd
4.35 Y: Final Reckoning
5.05 Y: Laughton
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1.55 Y. Dominada
2.30 Y. Wicklow Brave
3.05 Y. Nemoralia
3.40 Y. Easton Angel
4.20 Y. Midaawi
4.55 Y. Manson
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6.25 Killarney - Hibiscus @ 5/2 Bet365
Really liking Hibiscus against the Weld favourite who ran a good race on debut. You would always back an O'Brien horse to find more 2nd time out though especially this one who cost a massive 625000gns and will relish the step up in trip. 5/2 very generous.
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3.40 York - Queen's Trust @ 6/1 Bet365
Queen's Trust looks progressive and the step up in trip should suit. Endless Time should have been beaten by Furia Cruzada last time, Seventh Heaven's Irish Oaks isn't working out and I don't like Found. She gets beaten a lot and she comes here off a break on ground probably firmer than ideal with an autumn campaign likely in mind.
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1.55 Y Danielsflyer
2.30 Y Roly Poly
3.05 Y One Word More
3.40 Y. Queens Trust
4.20 Y Abingdon
4.55 Y. Jadaayil
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6.50 Killarney - Erysimum e/w @ 12/1 BetVictor
Interesting Listed race here with Air Vice Marshall heading the betting. I can take him on though as he didn't build on his Guineas 4th when flopping in the Irish equivalent and hasn't been since. He wears a tongue tie off a 3 month break so looks as if they've had some issues with him. Assume is an inconsistent type so she's hard to recommend but I think Erysimum still looks progressive and may be able to place at least with a win not out of the question if Air Vice Marshal and Asume don't bounce back to their best.
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1.55 Y: Ninjago
2.30 Y: Syphax
3.05 Y: Housesofparliament
3.40 Y: Postponed
4.20 Y: Nakeeta
4.55 Y: Naafer
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5.50 Tipperary - Noble Aussie e/w @ 22/1 Skybet
3rd race I like one of the outsiders. Noble Aussie hasn't shown much but he leaves McConnell who's a pretty poor trainer to join Damian English who we've spoken about before. I would be surprised if he can't get this horse to win off 45 considering his record in handicaps. There also isn't a lot of pace in this race and I think English seems to have a lot of forward going types so dropping back in trip with cheekpieces on first time hopefully he'll be well positioned. Damian English also has a good record with his runners first time out so I reckon this one has been underrated.
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Tipperary Preview
First race I like Member State who sets the standard on his Galway run which looks decent form and much less exposed than the other horses who have shown a good level of form on the track. However I'm not going to tip him up as an odds on shot. I was on Almanaara last time and I'm not prepared to give him another chance to break his maiden at the prices.
3rd race I like one of the outsiders. Noble Aussie hasn't shown much but he leaves McConnell who's a pretty poor trainer to join Damian English who we've spoken about before. I would be surprised if he can't get this horse to win off 45 considering his record in handicaps. There also isn't a lot of pace in this race and I think English seems to have a lot of forward going types so dropping back in trip with cheekpieces on first time hopefully he'll be well positioned. Damian English also has a good record with his runners first time out so I reckon this one has been underrated.
In the 6.20 I think Invernata should be taken on. His 2nd at Tramore was an improved effort but that was with a step up in trip so not sure coming back 3f will suit. Also he had a lot of out of form horses around him so I'm not sure the form is up to much. I like Reddot Express who is dropping into a weaker race here and is 3lbs lower. Still lightly raced and open to improvement the addition of a first time hood might make all the difference. Wanted to take on Lord Justice in the last race of the flat portion of the card at 2/1 as he looks a bit exposed at this stage although the step up in trip may suit. However I didn't fancy anything else so no bet.5.50 Tipperary - Noble Aussie e/w @ 25/1 Coral
6.20 Tipperary - Reddot Express e/w @ 10/1 Betfair
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1.50 Ripon - Robben Rainbow @ 11/2 Bet365
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Manager: Ferdia O'Hanrahan
Team Name: Cygan's Left Peg
Forum Username: arsenalfh -
5.30 Newmarket - Maldonado @ 15/2 Coral
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8.00 Leopardstown - Toccata Blue e/w @ 14/1 Betfair
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2.40 Windsor - Go On Mayson e/w @ 18/1 Bet365
Star Archer will be tough to beat here but he shapes a nice e/w market and I thought Go On Mayson looked potentially useful on his debut for Evans who does well with his 2 year olds. He was given a nice educational ride keeping on at the finish and should step up a good deal on that. The second favourite Salouen looks a bit exposed so 9/2 on the place part of the bet looks a bit of value in particular.
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Really sorry guys. Been busy at work and completely forgot about the competition. Should have made my place available to someone else.
Again apologies to anyone who missed out on qualification.
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Fancied Jupiter Light myself but he's now a non runner.
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5.35 Newmarket - Heavenly Angel e/w @ 8/1 Bet365
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5.45 Leopardstown - Lancaster Bomber e/w @ 8/1 Bet365
Some useful types in here but I think the Aidan O'Brien 2nd string is a cracking e/w bet. Donnacha O'Brien takes over in the saddle from his sister which is a plus while the faster ground should really help this War Front colt. With one run under his belt he should improve significantly given the yard and he has a great chance of placing at least.
8.35 Leopardstown - Crocodile Shoes @ 9/2 Coral
This looks a wide open affair and it's tough to rule out any of them. I like the Aidan O'Brien trained Crocodile Shoes though at the prices. The favourite Ex Patriot looks a bit exposed and A Shin Kildare couldn't win a poor Galway maiden when likely laid out for it being from the Weld yard. Crocodile Shoes should improve a ton from the experience and that should put him right in there with a chance.
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8.35 Leopardstown - Crocodile Shoes @ 5/1 Coral
This looks a wide open affair and it's tough to rule out any of them. I like the O'Brien trained Crocodile Shoes though at the prices. The favourite Ex Patriot looks a bit exposed and A Shin Kildare couldn't win a poor Galway maiden when likely laid out for it being from the Weld yard. Crocodile Shoes should improve a ton from the experience given the yard and that should put him right in there with a chance.
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6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
Cork 555
Tithonus 98.79
Count of carabass 98.79
Interesting race ....huge support for the fav tithonus here at 7/4 but interesting runner in count of carabass who has same rating but looks poor on paper ....was 6th last time but average of 5 horses that beat him was 64 and he has been dropped to 47!,...as a result....odds 14/1....seems good value to me
Count of carabass 3pts ew 14/1 generally
Nice one Richard. Some late money and a nice place.
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7.55 Cork - Sapphirine @ 5/1 Paddy Power
Sapphirine is very interesting 2nd time out for Murtagh in a weak race. The owners have already had success sending French horses to him with Peacehaven winning for the 2nd time today after needing his first run. Sapphirine was reportedly a keen horse in France but settled beautifully on her first start for the yard so he may have improved already and stepping back up in trip should suit.
Monthly Nap Competition - Friday 26th Aug 2016
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
2.10 Ffos Las - Mezyan e/w @ 20/1 BetVictor
At Ffos Las in the 2.10 Arzaak sets the standard as Our Boy seems to be regressing run to run but he really should have won a weak maiden the last day if he showed any improvement from debut and that's a concern. Casamento his sire and Besharah his half sister were precocious types and he may not be improving as expected. Hughes' 2 year olds have disappointed while the Hannon and Muir horses should be better for the run so I think Mezyan is the bet e/w. She should improve for the step up in trip and also looked in need of the experience the last day.