arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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5.40 Naas - Psychedelic Funk @ 6/4 SkyBet
This one was my nap of the day on debut and I thought he ran out a really impressive winner. He beat a really well fancied Bolger colt in the Godolphin silks and both of them pulled well clear of the rest so it looks strong form. Ambiguity will probably improve on this better ground but the form of his debut win looks pretty poor with the only other decent horse being a massive drifter suggesting he was in need of the run. I prefer the favourite at the prices and the newcomers will need to be pretty smart to win this first time up.
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5.25 Chepstow - Nazik @ 3/1 Betfair
There were some decent looking types in here that looked like they would improve for the run but the rain has brought 4 non runners including what I thought was the main danger. Nazik appeared to be outpaced early on last time probably because of greeness rather than a lack of speed. You can't get much quicker bred than this one so he might come on a fair bit from that and David Evans is a trainer I would like to keep on side rather than take on in these races.
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A bit late but a horse who lifts his knee and hits the ground hard is suited to softer ground while a horse who tends to stretch his legs and glide across the turf is suited to fast conditions.
But their legs move far too quick for me to tell which horses have soft and quick ground actions.
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Had a look at the flat portion of the Roscommon card. Nothing for me in the maidens but there are two form lines I quite like in the 6.10. Eight And Bob is just held by Full Court Press on form but that race has worked out extremely well with several subsequent winners and given he's more unexposed while the drop in trip might also suit I think he can reverse the placings with him. I also like Hint Of Frost who is entitled to come on for his reappearance in a strong Dundalk race and I would have him shorter than 20/1.
In the 7.10 I don't think many are well handicapped and the Lyons trained Synopsis could be by far the best horse in this. He's going to encounter much softer ground and may not be streetwise enough for a 16 runner handicap but if he handles conditions he could be hard to stop. Jockey bookings not a concern as Keane has to ride the Murtagh horse owned by Qatar.
Over at Windsor there are two I like in the opening maidens. In the first race there's another Johnston 2 year old I want to take on especially as she is bred for further. Tiggaliscious should come on for the run as a Hannon trained runner and it certainly appeared the case on her debut when she dwelt and ridden to get up with the pace before given an easy time when beaten. Cost 50k and should improve from that so she might be able to hold off the newcomers.
In the next race Varian and Palmer have decent looking runners but they disappointed on their 2nd starts and don't have fitness on their side. The Varian trained favourite looks the one to take on in particular having to give away 15lbs. Stoute has Sir George Somers who cost 340,000gns and very much looked like a horse who will come on for the run when never really given a chance to even challenge for the race on his debut. Given the stable's record he should improve a ton for that and he's the one for me.6.10 Roscommon - Eight And Bob @ 10/1 Bet365 and Hint Of Frost @ 20/1 Bet365
7.10 Roscommon - Synopsis @ 10/1 Coral
5.20 Windsor - Tiggaliscious @ 9/2 Bet365
5.50 Windsor - Sir George Somers @ 9/2 Bet365
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7.10 Roscommon - Synopsis @ 10/1 Betvictor
I don't think many are well handicapped and the Lyons trained Synopsis could be by far the best horse in this. He's going to encounter much softer ground than he has previously and may not be streetwise enough for a 16 runner handicap with only 2 starts under his belt but if he handles conditions he could be hard to stop. Jockey bookings not a concern as Keane has to ride the Murtagh horse owned by Qatar. Happy with a double figure price.
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4.15 Ascot - Related e/w @ 50/1 Bet365
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Ascot 2.30 - Forever Popular e/w @ 9/1 Bet365
Lingfield 4.00 - Landofhopeandglory @ 9/2 Bet365
Ascot 4.15 - Free Code e/w @ 14/1 Bet365
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8.15 Cork - Jelan @ 5/1 Bet365
Full sister to 2014 Champion Hurdle winner Jezki and given the stable's excellent record with newcomers, particularly last season she has a chance of making a winning debut in a weak enough bumper.
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6.00 Clonmel - Fly By @ 14/1 Bet365
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2.20 Beverley - Twizell @ 8/1 Bet365
Love taking on these Mark Johnston unraced 2 year olds in maidens. They are so overrated and you can find value by backing smaller yards who find success in these races. Twizell cost 50k and has a nice speedy pedigree for Ann Duffield who had a 2 year old winner on Friday and does well with these types. Not much else to like so hopefully this one comes in for some support.
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3.40 Newmarket - Mix And Mingle e/w @ 50/1 Betway
Mix And Mingle looks overpriced at 50s I think. Has a lot to find on paper but the trainer's runners tend to improve a ton for the run and she progressed again to finish 4th in the Nell Gywn. The ground would have been too soft for her as well so the better ground and step up to a mile should all bring improvement. With so much scope to improve from her last run and I can't let her go unbacked at the prices.
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Great stuff with so many in profit. Feels good to finally win this after being here a couple of years.
Thanks to all the participants and especially BH for organising this every month.
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45 minutes ago, robertob said:
3.45 Newmarket: Air Vice Marshal @ 40/1 Bet365
I'm slightly concerned about the tongue-tie on Air Force Blue and think the stable's second string offers better value. The ground is a bit of a worry for him but it seems to dry quickly right now so it might be okay. AVM is surely one with potential and should be a better 3yo. Can see him run well.
Herald The Dawn was my pick e/w at 33s but I think this one is interesting. The thing I'm struggling with is figuring out if he's in here because he's working well or just as a prep because all the talk was of Air Force Blue being the stable's only representative.
Good luck!
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6.45 Doncaster - Another Angel @ 5/2 Paddy Power
This one was a massive eye catcher on debut when he ran as green as any 2 year old I've seen this season yet finished a close enough 3rd. He was a big gamble that day and clearly possesses a lot of ability on what he showed on his first start. Michael Dods has his 2 year olds very forward and I think one of the newcomers would have to be pretty good to beat him.
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5.30 Punchestown - Identity Thief @ 5/1 Stan James
I'm not a massive fan of Vroum Vroum Mag. She has been beating rubbish over hurdles this season and doesn't pull away from them at the finish suggesting she might not have had tons in hand as her price today suggests. I don't really see My Tent Or Yours running to form either with the slower ground and he's unlikely to get a strong gallop here. Identity Thief is the one I like at the prices. He was really progressive before a disappointing run at Cheltenham but I would think the ground was too quick for him in hindsight as he's not a particularly good moving horse. Back in a smaller field on a slower surface I would be surprised if he didn't bounce back to form and considering he saw the track for the first time less than 18 months ago you couldn't rule out more progress.
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6.40 Punchestown - Baltimore Rock e/w @ 40/1 Bet365
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4.20 Punchestown - Baden e/w @ 16/1 Bet365
I thought this one would be a lot shorter as a really unexposed Henderson raider in a race full of disappointing types who haven't stepped up on early promise. Supasundae is the exception and he sets a good standard but his jumping is poor and Baden may give him a run at a big price. He was an expensive purchase and ran a really good debut over hurdles when finishing behind North Hill Harvey before probably finding the ground too heavy behind Yanworth next time. He's already been backed in from 20s and is very unexposed.
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Yorkhill and Vautour comfortably beaten.
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Tough enough card to have a bet. I went against Yorkhill in the first Grade 1 as the horse looks a pretty mental animal to be honest! He was pulling like mad at Aintree and idled badly at Cheltenham. I think the Yanworth form is overrated too as his beating of Shantou Village has not worked out and the latter would have hated that ground. Min was the number 1 Mullins novice hurdler going into Cheltenham and I think the Supreme is better form so I took a chance on Charbel who might get an easy time of things out in front.
In the 4.55 Western Boy was a high class novice hurdler who was beaten narrowly by Vautour over course and distance once upon a time. He lost his way over fences the following season and his jumping was very bad when he returned to hurdles. He showed he retained ability when winning off 81 on the flat before placing in 2 big handicaps at Leopardstown and the Curragh of 90 and 93 respectively before taking a break over the winter. He was a massive drifter on his reappearance so probably needed that and it was a far more encouraging all the same beaten 17L by Clondaw Warrior when given an easy enough time of things at the finish. His jumping looked better although he made one mistake down the back and off 129 I think he could be well handicapped if he puts it all together. 25/1 e/w looks good to me.
Haven't had a bet in the Champion Chase yet. I liked Gods Own at first but after watching Simonsig's reappearance again I'll just side with him. Everything went wrong for him that day losing a ton of ground at the start, running keen and I felt he just emptied on ground too soft for him over a trip too far. He showed he retained ability though and back at 2m on good ground I can see him going well with strong vibes from the yard. And I wouldn't want to bet against Nicky getting another one back. Vautour is hard horse to train and he's already been on his game 3 times this year at Kempton, Cheltenham and Aintree so he might be a bit flat here as he has been in the past, especially going right handed.
Don't like the first 3 in the betting in the Grade 1 novice chase so I'll chance Southfield Royale who looks a little overpriced after 3 very good efforts over fences in good company.
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4.55 Punchestown - Western Boy e/w @ 25/1 Bet365
Western Boy was a high class novice hurdler who was beaten narrowly by Vautour over course and distance once upon a time. He lost his way over fences the following season and his jumping was very bad when he returned to hurdles. He showed he retained ability when winning off 81 on the flat before placing in 2 big handicaps at Leopardstown and the Curragh of 90 and 93 respectively before taking a break over the winter. He was a massive drifter on his reappearance so probably needed that and it was a far more encouraging all the same beaten 17L by Clondaw Warrior when given an easy enough time of things at the finish. His jumping looked better although he made one mistake down the back and off 129 I think he could be well handicapped if he puts it all together.
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5 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
Lots of winners today
Arsenal 16/1 EW (beat the price by 1 minute), Geeuppy 3/1, Rainbow 5/1, Corky 15/8, Trotter 13/8, Gbettle 2/1, Soi Bongkot 7/2 and Btugero 11/2
Cheers BH. Have been getting lucky with some of these maiden winners. I always make my picks the night before but sometimes leave my Nap until the next day as at times I need a market move to pick the one to put up here. I was going through oddschecker this morning and he was readily available at 16/1 and minutes later he was smashed into 8s/10s and Betway were the slowest reacting. Lucky me today!
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11 hours ago, arsenalfh said:
4.35 Naas - Psychedelic Funk e/w @ 8/1 Paddy Power
5.40 Naas - Mr Right @ 5/1 Betfred
7.40 Naas - Maincin e/w @ 18/1 SkyBet
8.10 Naas - Elusive Heights e/w @ 11/1 SkyBet
Some massive moves for the Lyons horses today with Psychedelic Funk and Elusive Heights winning at 7/2. Couldn't have gone much better today!
- richard-westwood and DanV89
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Liking the look of Gods Own myself. I love Vautour but he's such a hard horse to train, missed Punchestown last year and was hardly impressive the year before. He has had to take in Aintree in the meantime this year and off a fall he's ripe to be taken on.
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Lyons' blog from earlier in the year completely through me off backing his first time out. He said he didn't have turf gallops and all his horses need the run and for some reason I never checked out his first time record (which is exceptional as is his record as a trainer in general) or if I did I completely misread something. He's massively in profit with both 2 year olds and seasonal debutantes and he has a couple of nice debutantes here at Naas after his yard really hit their stride yesterday at Gowran. He has his first 2 year old runner tomorrow in the opener at Naas and I would be keen to take on the first three in the betting who are AOB, JB and DW trained so Psychedelic Funk and Thomas O'Malley (JOB trained who is 2-2 with 2 yos) look interesting at bigger prices. That Bean Feasa is going to have her fans as a half sister to Teofilo but he's by Dubawi who's hardly known for precocious two year olds and the dam has produced nothing except Teofilo. Bit of a concern with the JOB runner is that she's bred for middle distances. So Psychedelic Funk has the right trainer, speedily bred, yard won this last year looks the bet at double figures. I just managed to squeeze Psychedelic Funk in as my Nap of the day when I woke up with a sly pick as Betway were considerably larger than the other firms and actually had drifted his price to compensate for the Bean Fheasa gamble so apologies if anyone wants to get on. I would still say 8/1 is value though as you really want to be taking on AOB and DW 2 year olds first time out.
In the 5.40 Mr Right did me a huge favour at the Curragh a few weeks ago in a handicap sprint and I think he should be favourite over Master Speaker who he beat that day. Yes Master Speaker ran into trouble in running and is just about weighted to reverse the form Mr Right is progressive and was actually eased down at the finish. It looked a strong race at the time as I mentioned that day so these two could be the pair to focus on. Master Speaker also always seems to find trouble and has only managed 2 wins under rules so I like Mr Right again.
6.10 is another 2 year old race full of potentially very good horses. It's a bit strange that AOB puts full sisters to Hit It A Bomb, Minding and Ballydoyle into the same race but I guess staying unbeaten is not really important as fillies. Blue Bahia ran pretty well on his debut and can be expected to improve for Weld while there's also been money for the Harrington horse so it's hard to have a fancy. If I did have a bet Velveteen for Lyons would be my pick but I'll watch this one. The next race looks better than Listed class on paper and I think Fort Del Oro is going to progress significantly through the sprinting ranks this season and will be the best of these. I couldn't really back one of Lynam's first time out though so I'll sit and watch.
I liked Credit The Giver in the 7.40 but preferred Maincin at the prices. Seems on a handy mark on some of his early season form from last year and is still lightly raced so more should come at a big price. In the concluding maiden Footbridge is the obvious one and will probably be very hard to beat but Freeman looks decent and Lyons has to newcomers with Keane turning down a pretty expensive yearling. Lyons says Keane's pick Elusive Heights is sharper than the same owner's Ex Patriot who ran well on debut at Gowran yesterday so I'll take a chance on that one.4.35 Naas - Psychedelic Funk e/w @ 8/1 Paddy Power
5.40 Naas - Mr Right @ 5/1 Betfred
7.40 Naas - Maincin e/w @ 18/1 SkyBet
8.10 Naas - Elusive Heights e/w @ 11/1 SkyBet
Monthly Nap Competition ~ Thursday 12th May
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
York 3.15 - Midterm @ 13/8 Betway
Didn't beat enough the last day to be this short in form terms. However I liked the way he knuckled down to win despite not being given a hard time and the time was very competitive compared to the other 10f races on the card. Given the vibes prior to the race I don't think they were expecting much first time out as he is a lazy sort and is sure to come on a ton for the run being from the Stoute stable. Frankie deserting Foundation is a big negative for me and says more about his stable's chances than a positive for maiden winner Wings Of Desire. I didn't like the form of Deaville's races last year but the vibes are that he has improved and he can give Midterm the most to do.