arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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6.30 Ripon - Savannahs Dream @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
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Cracking stuff sirspread! Well deserved.
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4.30 Leicester - Ardad @ 3/1 Ladbrokes
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12.45 Redcar - Mary Brady @ 6/1 Coral
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2.35 Naas - The Happy Prince @ 10/1 Paddy Power
The Happy Prince has the best form and I think he can get back to his best upped two furlongs on decent ground which is sure to suit. I think Awtaad and Blue De Vega stepped up massively from their previous runs to the Irish 2000 Guineas so Embiran looks short and overrated in this market while Anamba will most likely need the run. There are some other unexposed types but at the prices I like The Happy Prince to take on the favourites who are too short with the best jockey on board.
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Really good card at Naas today although it's unfortunate that Psychedelic Funk is now a non runner with a temperature. Hopefully he'll be 100% for the Coventry as I have him backed.
First race is a weak enough maiden so a newcomer might be able to win this. Weld and Bolger have debutantes here and at the bigger price I have to go with Maoineas as Bolger has a good record with these types. In the 2.35 The Happy Prince has the best form and I think he can get back to his best upped two furlongs on decent ground which is sure to suit. I think Awtaad and Blue De Vega stepped up massively from their previous runs to the Irish 2000 Guineas so Embiran looks short and overrated in this market while Anamba will most likely need the run. There are some other unexposed types but at the prices I like The Happy Prince.
No opinion in the 3.10 but in the 3.45 I was really impressed with Yulong Baobei who was only Halford's 3rd first time out 2 year old winner in the past 5 years. Cuff was really green last time and looks capable of confirming the form with Wayside Flower. I don't like Fahey 2 year olds second time out so I reckon Yulong Baobei is the bet at the prices. Washington DC and Smash Williams set the standard in the 4.10 but I much prefer the latter at the prices as he's less exposed and you can usually rely on Bolger having them ready first time out.
2.05 Naas - Maoineas @ 11/1 Betvictor
2.35 Naas - The Happy Prince @ 10/1 Paddy Power
3.40 Naas - Yulong Baobei @ 5/1 Bet365
4.15 Naas - Smash Williams @ 7/2 Skybet
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2.35 Haydock - Journey @ 6/4 Skybet
Journey's best form is a fair way clear of the rest of these and the step up back to 12f should suit. She went off 5/4 favourite on her reappearance and was just beaten by some decent horses in the end and back in a weaker race should be a much shorter price I think.
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4.40 Haydock - Asama Blue @ 9/2 Paddy Power
Neither Gosden's or Varian's fillies set a high standard so this is within reach of a newcomer and Haggas has a nicely bred type who should go well first time up for some powerful connections. At the bigger prices nothing stands out and with the two non runners Asama Blue should go well.
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7.40 Sandown - Intilaaq @ 7/4 Paddy power
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3rd place for Knockmaole Boy. No luck but can't complain!
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Great stuff Richard.
Thought we were done when Expreso Brasileiro came but he found more to hang on. The low draw at Gowran is a big advantage.
Now lets see if we can get the treble up with Knockmaole Boy. He's halved in price so I'm hoping for a good run...
- DanV89 and richard-westwood
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Looked at all the at Gowran races except the last two. Nothing I like in the maidens. 6.00 Reckless Endeavor looks overpriced at 7/1. Mizaah won a maiden well but has to step up to catch up with a few of these who are also open to progress. The Moore Factor flopped on better ground the last time and has questions answer now in similar conditions. Not sure he's that good. Mulligatawny was 3/4L ahead of Reckless Endeavor last time but dropping back to 7f should suit my selection as he ran quite free that day.
In the 6.30 race Expreso Brasileiro is short enough with only one win under his belt although his last race is working out well. The next few in the betting have really bad draws which are really hard to win from at Gowran. I like Great Wide Open in stall 1 who looks like he can be competitive off 77 when the remainder look poor enough. Hopefully back over 7f he'll settle better.
I liked Granny May before being made a non runner last time but the price in the 7.00 race looks short enough. Beechmount has got a bad draw and they finished on top of each other in Storm Ranger's last race so Knockmaole Boy looks the value at 10/1. 3rd in a race working out well and might improve for the run. Looks like he should be better than 68 and nothing sticks out at the bigger prices.The conditions event at 7.30 looks tough. Not a fan of what Shamreen has done on the track and Siamsaiocht doesn't look great either. Both have Group 1 entries though. Ballybacka Queen has some good pieces of form but is too inconsistent to recommend as a bet. No fancy here.
Duffield also has a newcomer at 16/1 who has to be a bet for me in the 2.00 race at Hamilton. Ben Haslam never seems to win 2 year old races and he saddles the favourite while a few of these don't look sprinters on paper and might be better in time as a result. Might been in with a squeak here.6.00 Gowran Park - Reckless Endeavor @ 7/1 Bet365
6.30 Gowran Park - Great Wide Open @ 14/1 Bet365
7.00 Gowran Park - Knockmaole Boy @ 10/1 Betfair
2.00 Hamilton - Uncle Charlie @ 16/1 Betfair
- richard-westwood and DanV89
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6.00 Gowran Park - Reckless Endeavor @ 7/1 Bet365
Mizaah won a maiden well but has to step up to catch up with a few of these who are also open to progress. The Moore Factor flopped on better ground the last time and has questions answer now in similar conditions. Mulligatawny was 3/4L ahead of Reckless Endeavor last time but dropping back to 7f should suit my selection as he ran quite free that day and at the prices he looks the play.
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1.55 Curragh - Czabo e/w @ 80/1 Betvictor
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5.05 Curragh - Fort Del Oro @ 3/1 BetVictor
I think this is between the progressive front pair who look potentially very smart sprinters and I prefer Fort Del Oro who won really well on her reappearance. I expect her to come on a ton for that and the cut in the ground brought by the rain should pose no problems.
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49 minutes ago, Trotter said:
I'm not really that fussed about Newcastle going AW
It's a track that I've never had a handle on and mainly I just ignored it
I like tracks that have an idiosyncratic feature that you can use to assess the runners suitability......eg tight bends, an uphill finish, very undulating...........Newcastle had nothing really
Mind .......a few years ago when I was concentrating on the AW I'd have been well miffed at having yet another track to do ratings for. More work !
You should try Irish racing then Trotter. None of these completely flat galloping courses with long run ins which you lot seem to love.
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2 hours ago, arsenalfh said:
3.55 Navan - Granny May @ 8/1 Betfred
Non runner.
5.30 Navan - Rabbie The Bard @ 13/2 Bet365
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3.55 Navan - Granny May @ 8/1 Betfred
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1.45 Thirsk - Indigo Beat @ 9/1 Bet365
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First race at Thirsk Indigo Beat should go well for good juvenile trainer Duffield. Fahey seems an honest trainer and he said his 2 year olds are badly needing the run this season and he is usually one of the likely winners of this sort of race so that leaves Duffield and this one might be a bit of value.
The 2 year old race at Newbury looks really interesting with Ed Dunlop's Global Applause well odds on and rightly so after a really impressive debut. He does have to encounter softer ground here but does look like 6f will suit. Mehmas was also a good winner on debut at Chester and that form has been franked with Vona winning at York yesterday but I think that horse improved a fair bit from that as he was an unexpected winner. Medicine Jack was smashed in last week at Leopardstown and was staying on well after Lundy got first run on him. That horse is being thought of as a Royal Ascot colt so the form looks strong and Lyons seems to really like him going by his comments and his Group 1 entry so he looks a good e/w bet provided the 8 go to post.
1.45 Thirsk - Indigo Beat @ 8/1 Bet365
2.10 Newbury - Medicine Jack e/w @ 12/1 Bet365
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Eagle Top looks very short. He needs a strong gallop which he won't get and I'm not sure he's an easy ride at all as he doesn't look entirely straight forward as his inconsistent profile suggests. He was beaten as favourite last season and at odds on here at Newbury too and I could easily see him running 10lbs below form. I'll be siding with Carnachy who looks really progressive and should come on for that effort at Goodwood.
The only potential Group 1 horses in the Lockinge are Limato and Endless Drama and Lyons has been quite bullish about the latter so he's the bet. Not sure how Toormore isn't favourite after his first run of the season when he would have needed the run and Dutch Connection is worse off at the weights after losing this time. Kodi Bear has his first run of the season and still needs to improve to win this I would think and surely Buick turning down Belardo is a negative for him and the ground is drying fast. Limato has run well in 2 slowly run 7f races so he's not a certain stayer in what will be a strongly run contest and might come on from this so he can also be taken on. Mahsoob looks like he's finally filling his potential but although the Lockinge has been the target he looks sure to be better at 10f. Arod looks big on the best of his form but you couldn't like his attitude last time and it will be interesting to see if GM Hopkins can build on his good run. Very competitive but the one potential star miler in this is Endless Drama.
4.10 at Newmarket doesn't look great to me. There are two unexposed horses in the race one of which is the favourite who is first time out for Hannon the other is Venturous who is 2nd time out for Appleby who tend to come on a fair bit for the run. That race looked pretty strong with progressive types finishing up the order so I think he should be favourite.2.45 Newbury - Carnachy @ 9/2 Betway
3.55 Newbury - Endless Drama @ 12/1 William Hill
4.10 Newmarket - Venturous @ 5/1 Ladbrokes (Pricewise), 4/1 Generally
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5.45 Hamilton - Benidiction @ 28/1 Skybet
Horrible on debut but was well backed and quickly weakened so maybe something was amiss or the heavy ground just didn't suit. Duffield usually has her 2 year olds very forward so I'll chance this one at a massive price.
Epsom Friday (Inc Oaks & Diomed etc..)
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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I'd say Minding is a fair price for this. The market has reacted as if her Irish 1000 Guineas defeat was a disappointment but I prefer to take a different view with the solid looking Now Or Never who goes in the ground 10L back in third. I think Jet Setting is actually very good particularly in soft ground and Minding put in a very good performance. She's a fair bit clear of the rest on figures and I think the bookies will offer some very nice prices on her winning this Friday.