arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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Naas Preview
Decent enough card as usual at Naas with the potentially smart Leo Minor winning the opener as well as a cracking maiden at 4.25 which has little betting appeal but a very expensive Ballydoyle colt coming up against two potentially smart Qatar owned runners including one by Frankel. In the 2.55 Almanaara is proving to be disappointing after being bought for a huge some but he's taking a drop down in class after a decent run in a Curragh maiden. The horse who finished just in front of him bolted up in a maiden next time so if he can step forward from his reappearance and the first time visor brings out some improvement too he should be able to win this weak enough affair. Flowerhill Nova has some decent form but I don't see how he has been backed into favourite as he looks a bit exposed.
The first handicap is up at 3.25 and it is full of pretty exposed types with Tribal Path now a non runner. Captain Power has dropped down to a mark he has been competitive off in the past and his run at the Curragh last time where he travelled nicely through the race suggested he is ready to win a race when dropped in class. Lynam is one to keep on side in these races and with not much else in the race, Captain Power looks a good bet at 7/2. The next race isn't a very appealing betting heat but I'll keep an eye on Danz Gift. I was close to putting this up as a selection after being dropped 2lbs for running a decent race at Dundalk last time when he travelled best but the trainers runner's often need the run so he is one to keep onside in the future perhaps.
Helvic looks the bet in the 4.55. He improved in headgear when finishing 3rd at Gowran Park over 7f from a car park draw which is nearly impossible to win from. That piece of form may be underrated because of that and this lightly raced handicapper should be competitive in this lower grade. The next race looks in the bag for Intrepid Prince who runs here with a penalty after an easy win at Galway. It's a poor race but I could see Shepherds Crook going well for a place. However there's been a non runner taking the field down to 15 runners so the place terms are no longer attractive.
2.55 Naas - Almanaara @ 7/4 Betfred
3.25 Naas - Captain Power @ 7/2 Betfred
4.55 Naas - Helvic @ 13/2 BetVictor
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2.55 Naas - Almanaara @ 7/4 Betfred
Proving to be disappointing after being bought for a huge some but he's taking a drop down in class after a decent run in a Curragh maiden. The horse who finished just in front of him bolted up in a maiden next time so if he can step forward from his reappearance and the first time visor brings out some improvement too he should be able to win this weak enough affair. Flowerhill Nova has some decent form but I don't see how he has been backed into favourite as he looks a bit exposed.
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39 minutes ago, arsenalfh said:
3.15 Deauville - Lumiere @ 9/2 Bet365
Alice Springs has had a lot of racing but put in a personal best last time and might only be coming to her best now. She was behind Qemah at Royal Ascot but the French filly seems to want some cut in the ground and the conditions today may allow Alice Springs to reverse that form. Out of the older fillies both Esoterique and Amazing Maria have failed to catch their previous form this year and whilst Impassable could get involved at a price based on her Group 2 success at Longchamp she isn't guaranteed to back that up as her profile is very patchy. Lumiere looks the value on her 6L win at Newmarket a few weeks back. She proved she trained on there and that form is probably good enough for her to go close here nevermind the fact that she is the least exposed here.
Johnston horses tough and consistent. Yeah right.
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3.15 Deauville - Lumiere @ 9/2 Bet365
Alice Springs has had a lot of racing but put in a personal best last time and might only be coming to her best now. She was behind Qemah at Royal Ascot but the French filly seems to want some cut in the ground and the conditions today may allow Alice Springs to reverse that form. Out of the older fillies both Esoterique and Amazing Maria have failed to catch their previous form this year and whilst Impassable could get involved at a price based on her Group 2 success at Longchamp she isn't guaranteed to back that up as her profile is very patchy. Lumiere looks the value on her 6L win at Newmarket a few weeks back. She proved she trained on there and that form is probably good enough for her to go close here nevermind the fact that she is the least exposed here.
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5.00 Galway - Sister Slew @ 14/1 SportingBet
Up against a winner earlier in the week and an unlucky loser but both have gone quite short in the betting. I think Sister Slew is overpriced at the current prices for a horse on the up who put in a personal best when winning last time. Been put up 8lbs for that and is 8lbs higher than when a close second in this last year but she has been improving recently and has a nice draw which is crucial at Galway.
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2.00 G: Loving Things
2.35 G: Forge
3.10 G: Azraff
3.45 G: Muthmir
4.20 G: Final Reckoning
4.55 G: Always Smile
5.30 G: Al Neksh
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2.00 G: You're Hired
2.35 G: Mehmas
3.10 G: Big Orange
3.45 G: Pamona
4.20 G: Manama
4.55 G: Tap Tap Boom
5.30 G: Latham
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2.00 G: Teak
2.35 G: Qatari Hunter
3.10 G: Lightning Spear
3.45 G: Global Applause
4.20 G: Bouqet Des Flores
4.55 G: Wholesome
5.25 G: Twin Sails -
13 hours ago, arsenalfh said:
2.00 G: Snoano
2.35 G: Larchmont Lad
3.10 G: Dutch Connection
3.45 G: Notarised
4.20 G: Blithe Spirit
4.55 G: Best Solution
5.30 G: Quebee
Larchmont Lad non runner.
2.35 G: Boynton
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2.00 G: Snoano
2.35 G: Larchmont Lad
3.10 G: Dutch Connection
3.45 G: Notarised
4.20 G: Blithe Spirit
4.55 G: Best Solution
5.30 G: Quebee
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7.50 Galway - Beau Satchel @ 8/1 SkyBet
Beau Satchel probably would have won the last day if he wasn't being held up so far off a slow gallop. Runs off the same mark tomorrow in the same race he won last year off 78, a 3lb higher mark. Likely being prepped for this, well drawn and looks well handicapped.
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7.20 Galway - Roconga e/w @ 14/1 BetVictor
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5.25 Newmarket - Bachelorhood @ 9/4 Betfred
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2.30 Thirsk - Mama Africa e/w @ 9/1 Bet365
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3.05 Sandown - Calare @ 11/4 Coral
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6.55 Ballinrobe - Fire Tree @ 11/4 Ladbrokes
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3.40 Curragh - The Tulip @ 7/2 SkyBet
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2.35 Ripon - Wilderswood @ 9/1 BetVictor
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5.50 Leopardstown - Jack Flash @ 15/2 Bet365
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7.30 Killarney - Xsquared @ 4/1 Betfair
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7.20 Killarney - Zafayan @ 7/1 BetVictor
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6.20 Killarney - Ruler of France @ 14/1 Betfair
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2.35 Fairyhouse - Greek Canyon @ 7/1 BetVictor
Tuesday Racing
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Cork Preview
In the first race De Boss Man was a massive drifter on debut and given the fact he got a soft ride and was very slowly out of the stalls he's likely to improve a ton from his debut. O'Callaghan's are also coming on a lot for the experience so he looks the value with the 2nd favourite running no race on his debut. Lyons also throws in a potentially smart prospect but I'll stick with De Boss Man. The 2nd race is competitive and I think the market has the right horses at the top of the betting so I'll stay away.
In the 6.25 I like the favourite Future Icon. You want to be on Lynam's horses in these races and he's been improving recently. Only 4th last time but that form looks pretty strong now and this appears a weaker test while Robbie Downey taking over from Ana O'Brien is another plus. Ottilie looks too short in the 6.55 for me. He was a very good winner last time but he comes up against a 140,000gns improving Godolphin filly who had no chance when 2nd to a horse who stole the race from the front. She's similarly unexposed and may just improve more than Ottilie as a Halford horse having her 2nd run of the season.
The Listed race is tough. Rose De Pierre was really impressive when winning last time and could be anything but Flight Risk and Sruthan in particular are really rock solid Group 3 horses especially in these conditions so no bet at the prices. The 7.55 is poor. I had Korbous backed last time at his beloved Leopardstown but he couldn't get the job done in an awful race when he was backed into 11/2 from 14/1. The market seems to think he'll improve from that effort but I'm not so sure given he seems to be targeted at Leopardstown and was quite a gamble. Sapphirine is very interesting 2nd time out for Murtagh. The owners have already had success sending French horses to him with Peacehaven winning for the 2nd time today after needing his first run. Sapphirine was reportedly a keen horse in France but settled beautifully on his first start for the yard so he may have improved already and stepping back up in trip should suit. Probably my best bet of the day.
In the Group 3 I have Harlequeen backed already but at the current prices she's too short to put up as a selection. She still seems to be improving and is the clear pick on form finishing ahead of Somehow in both Oaks. Channon also seems to do really well when bringing horses over for these events in Ireland. In the final race I think the ground may be too soft for the front two in the betting. Ask Katie was last turning in at Gowran last time but stayed on to take 2nd behind a front runner who looked to have got an easy lead. She's probably better than the bare form there and that was a personal best effort on RPRs at a new trip. Unexposed over 12f and with Chris Hayes taking the ride she's the bet in a weak enough affair.
5.25 Cork - De Boss Man @ 9/4 Bet365
6.25 Cork - Future Icon @ 5/1 Boylesports
6.55 Cork - Indrahar @ 11/4 Bet365
7.55 Cork - Sapphirine @ 5/1 Paddy Power
8.55 Cork - Ask Katie e/w @ 8/1 Bet365