arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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4.15 Windsor
Giveaway Glance was really nice winner last time out in a good quality contest back at Leicester in May. He's off since then but Alan King's run really well fresh on the flat so the break is no concern and the step up in trip looks sure to suit. Still lightly raced and unexposed over this distance, he could still do better and just 4lbs higher than his win last time out the 20/1 on offer looks great value.
Giveaway Glance win @ 20/1 William Hill
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8.45 Chelmsford
Rayaa went close at Leicester on her penultimate start beaten only a shoulder and off a mark of 2lbs higher should be competitive here. This is her debut run for Michael Appleby who has a great record improving horses first time up and has a much better chance than the 25/1 odds suggest.
Rayaa win @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
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5.10 Bath
Ambitious Boy is 1lb out of the handicap but runs for a trainer with a good record in sprints and the soft ground may help him get involved here. He's sometimes slowly away but the testing conditions should slow things down a bit for him and Greatrex is a positive booking for sure.
Ambitious Boy win @ 25/1 William Hill
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3.05 Chantilly - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Iquitos looks an interesting one. Has been running well in Germany in small fields but looks the type suited to a strong gallop and good test over 12f so I can see him improving here. The German's have had some decent staying types over the years like Danedream, Sea The Moon and Protectionist so he may be coming from an underrated form line. Looks good value to place at least with Bet365 going 150/1 with 4 places.
Iquitos each-way @ 150/1 Bet365 (4 places)
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3.05 Chantilly - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Iquitos looks an interesting one. Has been running well in Germany in small fields but looks the type suited to a strong gallop and good test over 12f so I can see him improving here. The German's have had some decent staying types over the years like Danedream, Sea The Moon and Protectionist so he may be coming from an underrated form line. Looks good value to place at least with Bet365 going 150/1 with 4 places.
Iquitos each-way @ 150/1 Bet365 (4 places)
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Don't want to take on Enable but she makes the race for some good value each-way bets.
Had a quick look and came up with a shortlist of Satono Diamond, Cloth Of Stars, Idaho and Iquitos as horses that look interesting to place.
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Cambridgshire Meeting - Day 2
Cox again is a man to follow here with 33 expected wins to 46 actual wins with 3 year olds and older in pattern company. Zonderland put in a personal best last time when just pipped by Lightening Spear in the Celebration Mile on his reappearance, and more can be expected of him now.
The next race on the card gives Thrave a big chance to get off the mark in a maiden. He was quite an expensive purchase and will improve a ton for the run coming from the Candy yard giving him a chance here.
3.35 Newmarket - Zonderland 4pts win @ 7/1 Coral
4.10 Newmarket - Thrave 4pts win @ 3/1 Betfred
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Good news for us who backed Diogo Jota for top scorer. He got two today bringing him up to joint second in the standings with 5 goals.
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Harvest Festival - Day 7
Spoke about De Bromhead's record when he runs two horses in a handicap chase and he runs two today in the 4.35. Worth backing both to win.
4.35 Listowel - Killiney Court 4pts win @ 4/1 Bet365
4.35 Listowel - Show And Go 4pts win @ 11/1 Bet365
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St. Leger Festival - Day 4
Two Dean Ivory horses for me in the Portland Handicap particularly with 5 places on offer. Stake Acclaim has been improving all year and was 3rd last time in a competitive race at Windsor. Incredibly every horse that has ran since has franked the form by winning or going close making the form look extremely strong.
Lancelot Du Lac also looks worth a bet with Dettori back on board. He disappointed last time but if returns to the form of his Goodwood win he should be thereabouts.
1.50 Doncaster - Stake Accalim 2pts e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 (5 places)
1.50 Doncaster - Lancelot Du Lac 2pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 (5 places)
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St. Leger Festival - Day 3
In the 4.35 sprint handicap Tropics has shown little this season but down to a mark of 97 the handicapper has given him a chance and he is in great hands trained by Dean Ivory. He should be suited by the extra half furlong at this stage of his career and is worth a bet at a massive price.
4.35 Doncaster - Tropics 4pts win @ 18/1 Bet365
Harvest Festival - Day 6
Codd is really a professional rider running in amateur races and is a massive upgrade to any horse's chance in bumpers. He has 65 wins to 52 expected and should go well on Strucker Hill.
5.50 Listowel - Stucker Hill @ 15/2 StanJames
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Adams Ale ran a decent race there but I think the jockey was a big negative there. Very ungainly and weak in the saddle so wasn't able to get a proper tune out of the horse. Should be dropped another pound or two and with a better jockey on board Adam's Ale should be one to keep onside next time out.
Yesterday it was frustrating to see Razzmatazz and Go On Go On Go On finish 2nd and 3rd respectively at big prices but good to see them run so well. The former in particular looks interesting at just 3 years of age and taking a massive step forward there. A full sister to l'Abbaye winner Move In Time she looks the type to keep improving and one to look out for particularly as she's in the care of Clive Cox.
Mount Hannover was a non-runner.
Bets: 47
Profit: +36.95pts
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St. Leger Festival - Day 2
Bit late today but Fife is one to follow in sprint handicaps and she run's Adam's Ale here. Her record is outstanding with 46 wins to 36 expected and is worth a go at the prices.
1.20 Doncaster - Adam's Ale 4pts win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes
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St. Leger Festival - Day 1
Again no time for a write up but it's worth following Cox runners in pattern races.
3.10 Doncaster - Go On Go On Go On 4pts win @ 18/1 Ladbrokes
3.10 Doncaster - Razzmatazz 4pts win @ 40/1 Ladbrokes
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Harvest Festival - Day 3
Unfortunately have no time for a right up on Kerry National but I have two picks trained by De Bromhead.
4.05 Listowel - Stellar Notion 2pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365
5.05 Listowel - Mount Hannover 4pts win @ 10/3 SkyBet
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Harvest Festival - Day 3
Capital Force was a good hurdler for De Bromhead and given the stable he comes from is sure to improve chasing. First time up is a good time to catch the value although he's already been backed.
4.10 Listowel - Capital Force 4pts win @ 11/8 Betfred
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On 9/11/2017 at 0:58 AM, arsenalfh said:
Harvest Festival - Day 2
Just the one today hoping for some more luck in the maiden hurdles. Classic Theatre was a good bumper horse for De Bromhead and that is a great sign for his prospects as Henry tends to go easy on his horses in those races. First time up over hurdles is when you want to catch them from a value point of view with 30 wins to only 21 expected and he looks a good bet today.
4.30 Listowel - Classic Theatre 4pts win @ 3/1 Bet365
Well backed winner coming in at an SP of 11/10.
Bets: 42
Profit: +56.95pts
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Harvest Festival - Day 2
Just the one today hoping for some more luck in the maiden hurdles. Classic Theatre was a good bumper horse for De Bromhead and that is a great sign for his prospects as Henry tends to go easy on his horses in those races. First time up over hurdles is when you want to catch them from a value point of view with 30 wins to only 21 expected and he looks a good bet today.
4.30 Listowel - Classic Theatre 4pts win @ 3/1 Bet365
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The Irish Champion is usually one of the most competitive and strongest races of the year but that renewal was terrible. Decorated Knight and Poet's World had the better ground on the outside coming up the straight and finished just ahead of Eminent who's really a Group 2 horse and Moonlight Magic who's an exposed Group 3 horse.
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4 hours ago, arsenalfh said:
Harvest Festival - Day 1
The Harvest Festival kicks off at Listowel today with the unfortunate news that Coneygree won't be running in the Kerry National later in the week.
Today Champoleon looks a good bet in the maiden hurdle at 3.20 race as Meade has a terrific record in these events as long as his runners aren't debutantes over jumps. Under these conditions his record is 120 wins to 92 expected so 2nd favourite Champoleon looks the value.
Later on I have spoken about De Bromhead's record in handicap chases over the summer season and he runs two in the 5.00 race. He's 19 expected to 31 actual winners and already has 8 winners this season. He also seems to do really well when running more than 1 horse in a handicap chase, perhaps really wanting to win and having his runners fully tuned up. With 17 wins to 9 expected this makes both Three Stars and Attribution very appealing at the prices.
3.20 Listowel - Champoleon 4pts win @ 2/1 Betfair
5.00 Listowel - Three Stars 4pts win @ 13/2 William Hill
5.00 Listowel - Attribution 4pts win @ 10/1 Bet365
Good to get a winner on the board after a while. Champoleon wins at 11/4. Probably wasn't good enough anyway but Three Stars really gave himself no chance with his jumping, finishing 3rd in the end. Attribution was a non-runner.
Bets: 41
Profit: +44.95
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Harvest Festival - Day 1
The Harvest Festival kicks off at Listowel today with the unfortunate news that Coneygree won't be running in the Kerry National later in the week.
Today Champoleon looks a good bet in the maiden hurdle at 3.20 race as Meade has a terrific record in these events as long as his runners aren't debutantes over jumps. Under these conditions his record is 120 wins to 92 expected so 2nd favourite Champoleon looks the value.
Later on I have spoken about De Bromhead's record in handicap chases over the summer season and he runs two in the 5.00 race. He's 19 expected to 31 actual winners and already has 8 winners this season. He also seems to do really well when running more than 1 horse in a handicap chase, perhaps really wanting to win and having his runners fully tuned up. With 17 wins to 9 expected this makes both Three Stars and Attribution very appealing at the prices.
3.20 Listowel - Champoleon 4pts win @ 2/1 Betfair
5.00 Listowel - Three Stars 4pts win @ 13/2 William Hill
5.00 Listowel - Attribution 4pts win @ 10/1 Bet365
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Khalidi was a non runner but the other two never really landed a blow.
Bets: 39
Profit: +37.95
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Killarney August Festival - Day 1
Bhutan looked a potentially smart colt when beating Housesofparliament by 3L on his debut. He's obviously had problems since, having only 3 starts all over hurdles.
However he returns here well in with a shot if he can replicate that maiden win's form. He's completely unexposed on the level and running fresh should be no problem. The biggest angle here however is Billy Lee taking over for the first time. He's the best jockey in Ireland and following him in these circumstances yields a nice profit.
6.20 Killarney - Bhutan 4pts Win @ 9/2 Bet365
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York Ebor Festival - Day 1
Cox is the man to focus on today in the two feature races at York. He has a fantastic record with 3 year olds and older in Group races with 45 wins to only 32 expected given the odds.
In the Voltigeur he runs Khalidi who's having his first start for the yard. Whilst he isn't far off these on quality he does look a bit exposed. But given Cox' s record in these races he might be able to eek out a bit of improvement.
His other runner is My Dream Boat in the Juddmonte. He disappointed last time with conditions in his favour running a strange race; keen in the early stages before plugging on at the end. His best performance was actually over 10f and maybe the first time visor will perk him up a bit. But it's been lashing down at York this morning and I don't think he's a 50/1 shot particularly with firms offering 5 places in a 7 runner contest.
York 3.00 - Khalidi 2pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 (3 places 1/4 odds)
York 3.35 - My Dream Boat 2pts e/w @ 50/1 SkyBet (3 places 1/5 odds)
Racing Chat - Monday Oct 8th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
4.15 Windsor
Giveaway Glance was really nice winner last time out in a good quality contest back at Leicester in May. He's off since then but Alan King's run really well fresh on the flat so the break is no concern and the step up in trip looks sure to suit. Still lightly raced and unexposed over this distance, he could still do better and just 4lbs higher than his win last time out the 20/1 on offer looks great value.
Giveaway Glance win @ 20/1 William Hill