Resolvedtwo

Hope you all got on Wealdstone. Rare the bookies make such a huge error like that and great to take full advantage.

Poland Super-Cup
17:30 Legia- Lech   Lech won Super Cup a year ago but later totaly failed in season and didn't reach a position to promote to Cups. Because of that team changed a lot of players and we there are some new interesting faces in team. In friendly games in preparation period it looked really nice.  Lech coach underlined that they want to win this trophy (even if it is not that prestige). Both teams will play without some players (who participated in Euro) but in Lech side it is only Linetty and Kadar but still these players are probably on the way to leave Lech. Legia is with much bigger troubles- they had to change coach (who actually left them) and some players left club (Borysiuk to QPR, Jedrzejczyk came back to Krasnodar) but what's the most important- key players like Pazdan, Nikolic, Jodlowiec and Duda +  Hamalainen is injured. What's more they will play in Mostar in next 5 days a much more important game for them (CL Qualifications). I believe Lech is favorite in this game and after a horrible season and lost in May in Polish Cup to Legia- they will be especially motivated to win today.   Bet: Lech DNB @2,30   ->  High Stake Lech to win - 3,30 -> Medium Stake    

I have followed Addpea's singles (I ignore any tips from anyone which are combo's or antepost bets as they are obviously notoriously difficult to come in). Since 19.09.15. Playing at 1 unit level stakes and using the average odds for all bookmakers as cited by oddsportal.com his profit is 19.77 units at a 14.02% yield (from 141 bets)
Such a performance would beat the overwhelming majority of paid tipsters at blogabet (and we are lucky enough to get this for free !)
It should be noted that the average odds are much lower than odds that may be readily available at some of the better bookies. As some sort if indication of what could be earned in reality I made 18.27% off all his tips...which led to one bookie closing my account completely as I only ever used it for Addpea's non league bets so I could keep a track of the yield from his tips.
In conclusion I obviously do not agree with your comments and feel you should have looked at the bigger picture, and Addpea if you are reading mate, many thanks for a great season...in my book you have every right to call yourself an expert.
 
 
 
 
 

My bets for tomorrow are Barrow (Naps), Torquay, Margate, Hayes & Yeading and FCUM.

Germany Lower League - Oberliga South
 
Germany Oberliga South today with a game between the reserve of Rot Weiß Erfurt and League Leader Lok Leipzig. Leipzig with no lose in the league so far and last month with many draws, but after there impresive win against 2nd Place team Inter Leipzig 2 game away they are now in Form. They have the best squad, away with 6-4-0. Also with Schinke (MF 21 Games/6Goals) and Surma (Def 21 Games) are 2 important players back after suspension. So Leipzig with no missings today. Erfurt II with good Form in last games, but last Weekend they lose against Inter Leipzig 0:4 and for sure Inter Leipzig has the best offensive in League from quality. But think LOK Leipzig can to the same. Erfurt II playing for nothing, they are not playing any more in next Year. The same like Halle II and Dynamo Dresden II did this season. The Club not want to play in League Games because it´s not good for Financials.
So Erfurt in 3. Bundesliga this Weekend have made safe the League for next Year. Big Party at Weekend and also i don´t think that they let many Players to play today in this game for the reserve. Think the players who doesn´t play many games, now will play in 3. Bundesliga.
So also Erfurt II played at 24 the April, while Leipzig played last game 20th April. Lok Leipzig played Friday a benefit Game for a former Club Player who died in Costa Rica. But not important for fitness here. But Erfurt II 2 Days since last Game and in this League where Players also must go to work, it´s maybe not the best Situation. Also the Game start early at 17:00 Clock. So maybe working Players are not so fresh. Leipzig with most of the players are Full Time Players, so no blow for them.
Table Situation is that LOK have 2 Games more then Inter to play and acutally 5 Points in Front. Maybe with a win today, they can made 8 Points in Front. Big Chance here to made the Promotion "safe".

Lok Leipzig @ 1.90 4/10 bet365
 
@cyrus69 Sorry was Groundhopping last Weekend, so can´t answer you.

2-0 wins for both games.

Woking v Dover
A week after a goalkeeper scoring in injury time cost me a nice winner, Maidstone went and let two goals in during injury time to stop them from adding to Aldershot as wining tips last week. It is funny how rarely these things go for you! Anyway onto this week and just the two bets stand out in a tricky set of fixtures. Woking may have sorted out their off the field issues regarding end of season bonuses, but it doesn't seem to have made a difference on the pitch and they are in the middle of their second slump of the season. Including Saturday's FA Trophy loss to Grimsby they have lost four on the bounce now and those have included defeats to Guiseley and a Bromley side who hadn't won for ages prior to beating them. Dover have been a real surprise package this season, but they have a really good side. It is a shame their chairman is thinking of walking away if their crowds don't pick up and it is also strange why more people aren't going to watch them given how well they are doing. They have a great chance of making the play-offs and although they were disappointing in the FA Trophy against Nantwich last weekend and then lost to Southport in the week, I think they have it in them to bounce back here. I would make them favourites for the game so just under 2/1 with Marathon is a good price.   Stalybridge v Alfreton Alfreton have been storming up the National League North table in the last couple of months and prior to Tuesday's defeat against AFC Telford they had gone ten games unbeaten. They were in front twice though and although obviously disappointing they went on to lose the game Telford were ironically enough coming off the back of a very good performance against Stalybridge. Stalybridge blew a 5-2 lead to only end up getting a point and that has to have felt like a defeat for them. Alfreton have won their last five away games and are looking very strong on the road. Given Stalybridge also conceded five in their previous game against Worcester it is clear their defence is suspect at the moment. Betway's 9/5 looks a fair price.

Not being funny but would have thought I had made it pretty clear my thoughts on the game.

Had to start the thread early as Bet 365 are a massive 3/1 on Oxford City to beat Cheltenham in the FA Trophy replay. Cheltenham are playing two games in two days as they are playing Kiddie in the league on Tuesday and this game on Wednesday. They have already said it will basically be the youth team playing Oxford.

For this week:
Academica - P Ferreira: Academica has been playing bad, Pacos Ferreira is much better team and their odds are good. Ferreira to win > 2.20
Guimaraes - Porto: Porto performance has been inconsistent, while Guimaraes is a decent team. Guimaraes can win this game, its not likely but their odds are way too high. Guimaraes to win > 7,58
Boavista - Setubal: Boavista is performing very bad. Setubal is playing good football despite latest bad results. Very good odds for Setubal to win! >2,7

Halifax v Barrow
The FA Trophy takes centre stage this weekend and I was hoping to tip up in the game I am going to, but Dulwich are a little on the short side at 2/1 to beat Guiseley. I do think they have a real chance of causing an upset though, but wanted at least 5/2 before I got involved. The first bet though is Halifax who continued their superb run of form under Jim Harvey against Macclesfield last weekend. They were one of four winners tipped and they should have won by more given the amount of chances they created. Barrow on the other hand were playing a game the result of which went viral. They went 2-1 up in the 82nd minute and 3-1 up in the 87th, but they then conceded 3 goals in injury time to lose 4-3 to Tranmere. That will have done their confidence no good and they have lost ten of their 15 away league games and have won just two of them. Halifax look a different side since Harvey took over and whereas a few weeks ago you wouldn't have gone near them to win a game at 11/10 it all of a sudden looks decent value.
 
Oxford City v Cheltenham
I opposed Cheltenham in the previous round and they were slightly fortunate to edge past Chelmsford. They rested a few players in that game and I fully expect the same thing to happen here. Oxford are currently in the play-offs in the National League South and are a fair bit better than Chelmsford so it will be no surprise at all if City pushed them close. Cheltenham's season is all about winning the league and at 15/4 the home side are a value play.
 
Truro v Macclesfield
As I wrote last week I felt Macclesfield had been flattered a little in their recent results and so it proved as they were no match for Halifax. They won't fancy this game at all as it is a very long way to Truro and the home side are having a superb season currently sitting in 7th place in the National League South. They had a great result last weekend when getting a point against run away leaders Ebbsfleet and I think they can cause Macclesfield plenty of problems. Marathon's 29/10 is worth taking.
 
Dartford v Bath
Their are two Kent sides in the National League South who look cracking bets this weekend. I opposed Bath last weekend with another Kent side in Maidstone because they are on an awful run of form at the moment bar somehow beating Ebbsfleet 1-0. Dartford are in very good form at the moment having struggled a little when the season started after relegation. They are in the play-off hunt now though and they really should be odds on to win this game not Marathon's 11/10. The one small worry is they aren't the most prolific in front of goal and they have only scored once in their last five matches, but there is every chance that one will be enough.
 
Margate v Chelmsford
Margate are another team where a change of manager has seen a big upturn in form. They have won three of their five games under Nikki Bull and are finally showing the performances that the quality of their squad should be showing. Again Chelmsford were a team I took on last week and they duly lost 3-2 to Weston having been 2-1 in front. They are on a very poor run of form at the moment and now the Margate side are full of confidence they look a good bet 6/5 with Marathon.

5:1  

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Six bets for me this weekend and hoping to land some big prices. Braintree v Tranmere Tranmere have hit the ground running which has surprised me slightly and after nicking a 1-0 victory against Woking last weekend they put 4 past Gateshead on Tuesday night. I am a little surprised to see them at odds against here given Braintree's not unexpected poor start to the season. I predicted they were going to be in for a hard season and after losing their first two games nothing has suggested to me otherwise. If Tranmere carry on in the form they have shown so far I would be hopeful they can carry on their 100% record. BetVictor go 11/10 for an away win. Gateshead v Boreham Wood I am sticking with one of the winning bets from last Saturday and going with Boreham Wood. Gateshead beat another of my bets last week in Aldershot, but the reports suggested they were rather lucky to do so. As mentioned above Tranmere had no issues putting four past them on Tuesday and although Wood aren't as good as Tranmere they have proven they will hold their own in this division. A good win against Halifax was followed by only going down to a last minute goal against Eastleigh. On those efforts they have a good chance of winning this and Bet 365s 18/5 is way too high. Alfreton v Brackley Alfreton have not had a great time so far since relegation. Granted they did get a point on the opening day, but they went down to nine-men and then they lost at home to Lowestoft on Tuesday. That was disappointing given Lowestoft are always at a disadvantage when they travel away from home as was proven by their shocking away form last season. Brackley have won one and lost one so far beating Harrogate 1-0 and then losing 1-0 to another relegated side in Nuneaton. Brackley have spent a bit of money again ahead of this season and should go a fair bit better than last term. On form so far they have a decent chance of getting maximum points and are over priced at 11/4 (Bet 365). Corby v Chorley The one home team I fancy this week are Corby. Gary Flitcroft leaving as Chorley manager looked like it would be a bad thing for them and so it has proved so far having lost both games including losing 4-0 to North Ferriby on Tuesday. They also conceded 3 against Nuneaton last Saturday so clearly the defence is a big issue for them. Corby have scored 5 in their two games so far so you would fancy them to get on the score sheet on Saturday. They were quite impressive against Gloucester on Wednesday and that should give them plenty of confidence going into this game. I think the home side look the best bet of the weekend at Boylesports' 11/10. FCUM v Tamworth It hasn't been a great start to live in National League North for FCUM having lost both their first two games and the feeling that their manager has taken them as far as he can still remains. They have another tough game on Saturday as they host a Tamworth side who have won their first two matches. They should be in and around the play-offs this season and I think they can continue the winning way on Saturday and the 6/4 Betway are offering is a fair price. Havant & Waterlooville v Margate The two teams I have tipped up for the league so ante-post wise I won't mind too much what the result is, but the prices on offer for this game based on the two games both have played this season are crazy. How on earth Havant can possibly be odds on is beyond. Granted it is worrying for my ante-post bet on them, but in the context of this game they have to be opposed. They have been woeful in both games against Bishops Stortford and Sutton and their fans on their forum are very worried about how they are performing at the moment and the managers tactics. Given Stortford lost 4-1 on Tuesday and Sutton were easily beaten by Maidstone on the opening day, neither defeat exactly bodes well. Margate are yet to win either, but have drawn twice and the 2-2 effort at Whitehawk on Tuesday was a good effort. If this game goes to form then there is only going to be one winner and at BetVictor's 11/4 Margate are a massive price. Tranmere 2pts Boreham Wood 1pt Brackley 1pt Corby 3pts Tamworth 2pts Margate 2.5pts