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StevieDay1983

Weekend > Apr 20th - 22nd

7 posts in this topic

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@addpea, @GazBlades, @Gidds, @tictok, @allthethings, @Tanktop, @amtopm, @sammydubs@the bastardian@bromsgrovegreen, @Woodgate, @Carl Iles, @dawwe92, @Kenton Schweppes, @TastesLikeTuna, @atish29, @sammummery, @MuineBheag, @Bronxie and @misky, what are you looking to back here? Apologies for the odds going up a bit later. Only the National League, National League North, and National League South odds had been unavailable initially.

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Forest Green v Maidstone

 

I’m struggling to see why Maidstone are such a big price here. Granted the home side have only lost twice at home all season, but one of those was to North Ferriby the other week. They lost to the other already relegated side Southport on Monday and with their play-off place assured they might just be taking their foot of the gas a little with that in mind. Maidstone continued their superb run of form on Monday and although they are now safe I reckon they will be really keen to finish in the top half of the table, something they could barely dream off at the turn of the year. They have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games and have won 4 of their last 5 on the road. Obviously FGR should be favourites, but no way should Maidstone be 6/1 (Bet365) and that looks a sporting play.

 

Woking v York

 

York could have been as good as safe if they had beaten Wrexham on Monday, but they had a surprising defeat and again they are only out of the relegation zone on goal difference. There away form has actually picked up since they won their first away game in an age on Boxing Day and they have only lost once, but this is a tough fixture with Woking also looking for the 3 points which will see them safe. Woking are in decent form at home having only lost once in their last 7. They had a confidence boosting win over Chester on Monday and they have only lost once in their last 6. Indeed they have picked up 1 more point than York in that period. The prices on offer are the sort of prices I would be expecting if York were at home and I just don’t get why Woking are as big as 5/2 (Bet365). Like the above game Woking are very much a sporting play.

 

Wealdstone v Hungerford

 

The prices on this game are staggering and it is no surprise the home side are being backed as what the bookies have missed, other punters certainly won’t have. A look at the table would make you think Hungerford need to win this game to try and over take Poole (2pts above them) in the race for the final play-off spot. So naturally with Wealdstone having nothing to play for the bookies have stuck Hungerford in as short price favourites. The problem is Poole and Hungerford have been barred from taking part in the play-offs because their grounds aren’t good enough. That means the team finishing in 7th place will take part and Wealdstone are 1pt behind Hampton who currently occupy that position. That of course means Wealdstone have something to play for whereas Hungerford have nothing. Indeed Hungerford lost 2-0 to Hemel on Monday which was their first defeat in 8 matches. Surely the fact they can’t play in the play-offs had a part in that and with Wealdstone only having lost one of their last 15 league games it is easy to see that the bookies have made a pretty big mistake in pricing this one up. It is no gimmie, but Marathon’s 11/5 is huge and I would have the teams prices switched around.

 

Edited by addpea
jakdhu and StevieDay1983 like this

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I know that, but I would be amazed if they were allowed to take part in the play-offs. It has never happened before so I don't expect it to happen here. Rules are rules and everyone knew them at the start of the season, Even if it does as things stand Wealdstone have a chance of getting into the play-offs so they have much more to play for currently so they certainly won't be easing off tomorrow. The match has been priced up as if Wealdstone have no chance of reaching the play-offs which is quite frankly wrong.

Edited by addpea

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Taken two thus far, and am awaiting odds on Truro-Hemel overs. If odds become available on over 3 I may jump on that one too, though I expect o3.25. In the meantime:

 

St Albans-East Thurrock, o3 odds 1.91

double of Boston-Fylde o3 and Harrogate-Brackley o2.5, pays about 3.3

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