Non-League May National League play-offs

[Darran]

Will write something more in depth but Braintree at 6/1 to win promotion has to be backed.

[Darran]

I backed Braintree to go down at the start of the season as I thought their small squad would struggle especially given how bad their pitch can be. I was also worried about their new manager. I did at least get their pitch right as they had quite a backlog of fixtures again, but the other two things I got badly wrong. They have had a superb season and to finish 3rd was some feat. Around Easter they had a bit of a wobble and I thought they were just going to run out of steam, but they proved me wrong again.They won four on the bounce including three on their travels, which was slightly surprising as their away form hadn't been as strong as their home. Crucially the first of those wins came at Grimsby who they face in the semi-final. They also drew 0-0 with them at home back in October. Their defence has been superb all season although they did concede two against Gateshead and Wrexham which was unusal, but I think Grimsby will find it very hard to break them down and they didn't score against them in either game. Braintree don't score many either, but they have scored 3 in their last three games now so that is a big plus going into the play-offs. They come into this in the best form and how on earth the team finishing 3rd can be a 6/1 shot I don't know. That rates massive value to me.

Grimsby are in the play-offs yet again, but this season they are in terrible form coming into them. They have only won twice in their last eight games and they came against Aldershot and Woking. I just get the feeling Paul Hurst has run out of ideas and if he doesn't get them up this season that will be it and it will be a new man in charge ahead of next season. I think they will find it very tough to beat Braintree in either game and I reckon they would need to take at least a two goal lead to Braintree and I would be amazed if that happened.

FGR are in even worse form than Grimsby as they really should have made Cheltenham work harder to win the title. That bad run of form meant chairman Dale Vince decided to sack the manger which seems crazy on the outside. It now means you have an inexperienced manager in charge for the biggest games of the season. Yes they beat Dover on Saturday, but both teams rested players so I would read little into that match. Maybe the gamble will pay off, but I wouldn't have done it myself. Dover have impressed me this season and they have some very good players in the side. It would not surprise me if the two semi pro sides made it to Wembley because I wouldn't want to be backing FGR or Grimsby to win any game of football at the moment.

Braintree to win the play-offs 2pts

[Darran]

Ideal first leg from a Braintree point of view. 

[Harlan]

Ante Post Bets

2015-16 season

I have followed this site a few months back and was particually interested in the Ante Post investments posted by our self-called  resident 'expert' addpea. I like doing some decent antepost bets as they give a season long interest with a possibility of a juicy payout.

'expert' addpeas tips were to win their respective leagues...

80/1 Maidenhead (7th) ,50/1 Gainsborough (16th), 11/2 Fylde (3rd), Stockport 'really going for it' (9th) , Solihull 12/1 (won), Nuneaton, Havant (relegated) Margate (just stayed up),

Staines (16th) , Dulwich (5th), Salford 7/2' in multiples only' (lost) Hyde 16/1 'after a solid preseason' (relegated !) St Neots(20th) , Hungerford(4th)

Conf prem

 8/1 EW Eastliegh - VERY SOLID ew - LOST(7th) , Grimsby/Tranmere 5/1 LOST , Cheltenham 'will struggle but could make play off' (Champions !)

Relegation : Braintree 11/4 'a season of struggle' (finished 3rd !) 7/2 Torquay (18th)

20 tips which gave 19 losers ! 

Yes the 'expert' did have some nice little spells of success on matchdays (after a poor start). Also some nice results towards the end of the season on occasions.

But to call him an "expert" ? ...... look at the ante post threads if you dont believe the above  ! 

The only decent 'tipster' was ricay with 20 pts staked with a 127pts return and bromsgrove chipped in with some nice ones. But following 'expert addpea would have made some very chunky losses despite what he claims ! Funny how he has not posted his enf of season stats !

Edited May 12, 2016 by Harlan

[shur]

 

Addpea очень хороший игрок и эксперт, он много интересного рассказал по ходу сезона о командах, и дал ряд прекрасных прогнозов, большое ему спасибо. А ваших прогнозов Харлан никто не видел, да и говорить после окончания сезона как-то не красиво, задним умом мы все сильны.

Addpea a very good player and expert, he told many interesting things in the course of the season the team, and gave some great memories, big thanks to him. And your prediction Harlan was not seen, and speaking after the end of the season as something not good, in retrospect we are strong.

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by shur

[footy4cast]

I have followed Addpea's singles (I ignore any tips from anyone which are combo's or antepost bets as they are obviously notoriously difficult to come in). Since 19.09.15. Playing at 1 unit level stakes and using the average odds for all bookmakers as cited by oddsportal.com his profit is 19.77 units at a 14.02% yield (from 141 bets)

Such a performance would beat the overwhelming majority of paid tipsters at blogabet (and we are lucky enough to get this for free !)

It should be noted that the average odds are much lower than odds that may be readily available at some of the better bookies. As some sort if indication of what could be earned in reality I made 18.27% off all his tips...which led to one bookie closing my account completely as I only ever used it for Addpea's non league bets so I could keep a track of the yield from his tips.

In conclusion I obviously do not agree with your comments and feel you should have looked at the bigger picture, and Addpea if you are reading mate, many thanks for a great season...in my book you have every right to call yourself an expert.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by footy4cast

[Harlan]

11 hours ago, footy4cast said:

I have followed Addpea's singles (I ignore any tips from anyone which are combo's or antepost bets as they are obviously notoriously difficult to come in). Since 19.09.15. Playing at 1 unit level stakes and using the average odds for all bookmakers as cited by oddsportal.com his profit is 19.77 units at a 14.02% yield (from 141 bets)

Such a performance would beat the overwhelming majority of paid tipsters at blogabet (and we are lucky enough to get this for free !)

It should be noted that the average odds are much lower than odds that may be readily available at some of the better bookies. As some sort if indication of what could be earned in reality I made 18.27% off all his tips...which led to one bookie closing my account completely as I only ever used it for Addpea's non league bets so I could keep a track of the yield from his tips.

In conclusion I obviously do not agree with your comments and feel you should have looked at the bigger picture, and Addpea if you are reading mate, many thanks for a great season...in my book you have every right to call yourself an expert.

 

 

 

 

 

Footy4 - a fair comment i have no doubt but i have focused on the ante-post tips only and i have no stats on the whole season midweek/weekend (better things to do). If he kept stats for himself which he should do it would be interesting to view them.

 his tips can be found here https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/145494-ante-post-national-league-northsouth/

But i respect your opinion but then again it is all about opinions and i have mine. But also the links and stats dont lie. But you must admit 19 losers from 20 pre-season tips is not exactly 'expert material' ?  

StanJames , betwin, victor, sportingbet are also very quick to close 'non economical' accounts.

Edited May 13, 2016 by Harlan

[sap]

hi all,

We are NOT here to blame anyone.It's a place where everyone share his/her tips,no one is obliged to follow else one tips.Make your own analysis before placing your bets on any member's tips.Sometimes we don't gather all the information we need before we place our bets on the teams we fancy.Therefore here we can get these additional information missing which could save our day.

addpea many thanks for the fantastic season...there had been ups and downs but I got saved many times by your precious information.cheers

 

Edited May 14, 2016 by sap

[BG Punter]

Harlan, if you have nothing good to say, why bother posting? Addpea has a big following (myself included) and he is indeed the resident non league expert. I am very thankful for his free tips and imho any attempt to stir shit should not be tolerated.

[footy4cast]

20 hours ago, Harlan said:

Footy4 - a fair comment i have no doubt but i have focused on the ante-post tips only and i have no stats on the whole season midweek/weekend (better things to do). If he kept stats for himself which he should do it would be interesting to view them.

Harlan ...as previously stated I would never bet on ante posts. Even if picky McPick winner of last years world pick championships were providing them...(why on earth would anyone when all you have to go on is basically transfer activity) however I saw potential in his early tips (although he was not that successful early doors I could see the potential in his betting method and decided that he was likely to be successful after a few weeks when the form kicked in - he basically often backs bunches of value and rides the % that one high odds winner will come in).

I have a record of his picks at average prices from 09.09.15 which provides the very impressive record I previously cited. You are welcome to the excel spread sheet if you provide me with your e-mail address.

I would hate to think you miss out on this guy based on his ante post tips.

Edited May 14, 2016 by footy4cast

[Harlan]

must admit his approach seems better than most because he doesnt really focus on odds on favs. More for the 'value' picks which is correct. Following short odds on home wins is the way to poor house especially in 4folds 5 folds. My rule of them is not to do a 2/7 odds on shot. Like JP MCManus says ... "if you have the 7 you dont need the 2" ...

thanks footy will be in touch - nice gesture from yourself. am always up for improving the balance sheet!

roll on next season !

Edited May 15, 2016 by Harlan

[Darran]

I don't bother coming on the forum for a few days and look what happens! I wasn't going to say anything because I didn't want to give the person my attention, but I thought I would write a few things.

First of all thanks to those of you have backed me up. I don't have to post my tips on here and the forums have become very quiet so I wasn't even sure how many people were following so it is good to see that people have. There have been some cracking results over the season and April was pretty much winner after winner. Sorry to Footy4cast for getting you a bookie closure. Not sure which it was but I do suggest everyone gets a Marathon account as I have taken them for a lot of money recently and not been limited once. They also are nearly always biggest about my selections and sometimes by quite a lot.

I have had a superb record in recent seasons on the ante-post front and last season was especially good and I was very close to landing a large amount if Fylde had won the league. I did have Barnet, Bromley, FUCM and Maidstone all to win their leagues. This season has been my worse ante-post ever. It is the first time in a long time I haven't at some stage backed the winner of the National League and would be massively in profit ante-post wise in that division over the last 8 seasons. Some of my tips this season stank quite frankly and I have admitted that quite a few times this season especially when talking about Margate and Havant (although I was right to take on Ebbsfleet just didn't find the right club). These things happen and the match betting during the season has more than made up for it. Last season it was the other way round as the match betting was very tough and there were a couple of spells where I didn't have a bet because of it, but the ante-post was strong. Ante-post isn't for everyone as Footy points out, but I like to try and attempt to find the league winners and it does give you the chance of big returns if you are right.

It will be good to have a rest from it and then go again come August.

[Darran]

By the way below is the only post Ricay made in the ante-post threads. Blyth were 2nd Bamber were 12th, Spennymoor were 2nd and Shaw Lane were also 2nd. So landed some e/w money but that is it and his strongest bet Bamber were in the bottom half of the table and didn't get close.

For me Blyth Spartans at 16's represent decent EW value. Despite losing a couple of players to higher league clubs. Wade is a shrewd guy who seems to have recruited well. As stated above the value in Salford has gone. Maybe Darlo who will be strong are worth a cover bet at 7's. Should be a decent league this season. In the NPL Div 1 North - Bamber Bridge are my strongest single. After just missing out the last two seasons they have made fantastic signings for the league . Notably ex league player Brett Ormroyd who if fit will bang a few in the net in this league for sure. Sadly before prices were given i was hoping at least 10's , they opened 6's and are now 7/2. Big dangers will be Spennymoor at 8's. They had a great first season in the division and only lost out due to a huge backlog of games which finally took its toll. They are defo worth a few shillings NPL Div 1 South - watch out for Shaw Lane i managed to get 12's but they are now 8/1. The squad they have assembled is very impressive. Including former league defenders with over 600 league appearances between them . Forward line is maybe the best in that division especially as their top scorer last season who scored for fun is about 4th choice this season. Gav Allott who scores when he wants from Frickley has not gone there for the Barnsley scenery (money also talks). Think its unfair that a club who does not have there own ground can virtually 'buy' there passage to higher leagues. Rugby Town and Stafford Rangers are the other teams that will also go very close but 9/2 now for Stafford offers no value except in multiples.Maybe if they get off to a poor start and drift to around 10's i will get involved as its a very long season. Blyth Bamber + Spennymoor Shaw Lane 4 singles & 2 x EW Trixie bets with our friend Mr Victor

[dawwe92]

Although Harlans post was unecessary and pretty trollish I must say Addpea you really dropped in my eyes with that post about RIcay. Betting is not about who is the best/worst tipster, its us together against the bookies. So please no more acting like a little kid.

[Darran]

Of course it isn't but Ricay and Harlan are the same person and he was just trying to big himself up whilst getting at me. I thought it was worth highlighting the fact that he hadn't done anywhere near as well as he said he had. The guy is more than welcome to come on here and provide us with decent tips but instead he decides to take cheap shots at me and before me Ships. I had been ignoring him which is why he went away for so long but I felt this time I had to respond and because he wanted to attack me I also wanted to show he didn't do as well as he liked to point out he had. It isn't something I would usually do, but sadly he drove me to it this time.

[dawwe92]

If that is the case then Harlan/Ricay should get an immediate IP barn from this forum. How low can a person sink. What an absolute idiot.