Neubs

FT 1-3

I´m on Shrewsbury, Forrest Green Rovers, Swindon and Stevenage...
 

Barnet v Wrexham
Barnet obviously let us down badly on Tuesday especially given they had gone a goal up, but I think scoring so early has actually gone against them. Given they were playing a relegated side and going a goal up I think they probably thought it was job done. That caught them out, but I think they might be able to bounce straight back here given their performances of late against the better sides in the league. We also have to add to this the fact Wrexham are struggling at the moment. They have lost 4 and won 2 of their last 6 games and the two games they won were against the bottom two sides in the league. Barnet are overpriced at nearly 5/2 so I am happy to back them for a 4th game running.
Eastleigh v Gateshead
On paper this is a game between two out of form sides as Eastleigh have lost 4 of their last 5 and Gateshead have picked up just 1 point in their last 5. Gateshead off the field issues have been well publicised and they only have 16 players thanks to cost cutting and a transfer embargo. I think they are running on empty now and fair play to them for going so close to the play-offs, but not surprisingly the off field issues have got in the way. I think we can upgrade Eastleigh's form especially their last two games in the past week. Going up to Fylde is never easy and after being in front they lost 4-2, but they were really unfortunate to lose to Leyton Orient on Tuesday 3-2 after being in front 2-1 at half time. With McCallum still among the goals, especially headers, I think they will prove too strong as they look to keep themselves in the top 7.
Spennymoor v Brackley
The home side blew up badly at the back end of last season although that was mainly because they had to cram so many games into such a short space of time. This time around they don't have that excuse and they have won just one of their last 8 games and that was against lowly Guiesely. They then lost 3-0 to Ashton who are likely to be relegated last weekend. Luckily for Spennymoor they already look to have enough points to qualify for the play-offs. Brackley are one place and 3 points above their hosts here and they could hardly be in better form having won 7 of their last 8 games and drawing the other. Win this and they should basically be guaranteed to 3rd place which of course is crucial as it means they play one less game in the play-offs.
Burgess Hill v Brightlingsea Regent
Three bets in the Bostik Premier to end with the week with the the first bet being a team looking to avoid relegation and they are showing signs they might just do that having won 3 of their last 4 games. The only defeat was when I put Margate up against them and they managed to beat Merstham in that spell as well. Last week they scored 2 late goals to beat Corinthian-Casuals 2-1. With their opponents not having anything to play for and the fact they have only won 2 of their last 10 games I think the home side are worth backing here.
Enfield v Carshalton
Enfield have lost 3 league games on the bounce including to Kingstonian last week which was their first leg win in 3 months. The other crucial thing for me in this fixture is the fact Enfield had the League Cup Final on Wednesday night which they won, but that was the only thing they had left to play for this season and it could be tough for them to get up for this game especially against a team looking to get into the play-offs. Carshalton have only lost once in the last ten, a surprising defeat to Corinthian-Casuals, and they look to have the upper hand for me in this fixture.
Margate v Potters Bar
I think we were a bit unlucky not to get paid out on the Margate bet last week as they should really have beaten Bishops Stortford, but I think they can bounce straight back here. Potters Bar did win last week, but that was against bottom side Harlow and it was only their 2nd victory in their last 9 games. Given how good Margate have been since Jay Saunders took over I think they win this.
Barnet 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
Eastleigh 3pts @ 101/100 with Marathon
Brackley 2pts @ 147/100 with Marathon
Burgess Hill 1pt @ 6/4 with BetVictor
Carshalton 2pts @ 6/4 with BetVictor
Margate 2pts @ 6/5 with BetVictor

I am writing this from Wellington airport waiting for a delayed plane and have used the time to catch up with the weekend's action and look ahead to tonight's matches where I have 3 bets and there are 2 bets for Wednesday's games.
Halifax v Ebbsfleet
I have put up Halifax a couple of times and they failed to win only for the to then beat Solihull at a big price at the weekend. I had also put them up for this fixture when it was called off the other week and I think they are worth backing again to win it. The loss to Dover remains their only defeat in their last 8 games and they were superb on Saturday in that win over Solihull. Ebbsfleet have won 3 on the bounce, but the form isn't overly strong. They had a really comfortable time of things at Maidstone on Saturday and prior to that it was wins over badly out of form Boreham Wood and Maidenhead. Gary Hill spoke again about his small squad after Saturday's win and how it is being tested and I just wonder if a Tuesday night trip to Halifax is where they come unstuck again especially as Halifax are in such good form. I would make the home side favourites so a near 2/1 quote is worth taking.
Harrogate v Salford
This game is live on BT Sport on Wednesday night and it is a shame my BT Sport app doesn't work in Australia because I wouldn't mind being able to watch this game especially as I think the away side are worth a bet. Salford are surprisingly big at 11/5 to win this. I still don't think they will win the title, but it was impressive to see they have bounced back from their sticky patch and crucially they have stopped leaking goals which had become an issue. It is now 5 clean sheets on the bounce and they had won 4 games on the bounce prior to a 0-0 draw against a resolute Barnet on Saturday. Harrogate lost to Barnet last Tuesday and then were very lucky to get a point out of their game at Barrow on Saturday. With Salford's defence not letting anything through at the moment there is every chance 1 might be enough here and it is a rare time this season for me where Salford have been overpriced and worth backing.
Bradford Park Avenue v AFC Telford
BPA have really found their form again after a rocky patch. Off the field they don't want promotion and that was enough to take them out of the title hunt although the squad have bounced back and they look set for the play-offs again. They are 7 games unbeaten now although they did blow a 2 goal lead against Southport on Saturday, but this match is a great chance for them to bounce straight back. Telford played well in both legs of the FA Trophy, but in the end Leyton Orient's class just about saw them home. That effort will have taken a fair bit out of them though and I have mentioned before about their dreadful away form this season. On paper it has improved of late, but the wins were against weak teams and coming off the back of Saturday's disappointment they will have wished for an easier game than this.
Guiseley v Curzon Ashton
It is 13 games without a win for the home side and they might well be looking at a double relegation. They have only won 3 games at home all season and they all came a long time ago. They lost 1-0 on Saturday in what sounds like a dire game of football. It is hard to understand why Curzon are so big here because they are in decent nick coming into this. I think I put them up when this fixture was originally meant to take place and at the beginning of the month they won the reverse fixture 1-0. They have been strong away from home of late as well and although the fixture list has been fairly kind on that front they did manage to win at Chester and draw at BPA in the recent spell. They are better than the home side and at nearly 2/1 are a cracking price.
Darlington v Chester
Another game which I put up a bet for the other week when it got called off. Granted Darlington are hardly in the best of form and only beating Nuneaton 2-1 on Saturday wasn't great, but their home form is good. Granted they haven't won in 4, but they had a really tough run of fixtures so to pick up 2 points was hardly a disaster. I have mentioned about Chester's away form recently and it really is bad. They didn't play on Saturday so that will help, but there is enough in the home team's price to want to play and given this game is on Wednesday it gives Darlo more recovery time.
Halifax 1pt @ 97/50 with Marathon
Salford 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365
BPA 1pt @ 123/100 with Marathon
Curzon Ashton 2pts @ 49/25 with Marathon
Darlington 1pt @ 31/20 with Marathon

FT 5:1
After the Game - must fair to say... I have to take much more Stake....

I´m on Lowestoft today. Big Relegation Battle we have here today, when they play against Halesowen who are 2nd Bottom of the League.
Lowestoft at Weekend with important Win by St. Neots and they changed Position in League Table - now Lowestoft are first Team out of Relegation Places. Now at Home against the worst Away Team of the League and with morale Boost after Win at Weekend - i think Lowestoft can made it today. Halesowen have only 1 Away Win at Begining of the Season against Last of the League Bedworth and 5 Draws.
For me Lowestoft are try to worth.
 
Lowestoft @ 2.00 3/10 Tipico

Barnet v Harrogate
Not many games on Tuesday night but hopefully when I land in Melbourne I will be seeing that Harrogate have picked up the 3 points. Barnet have only one win in 11 games now although they have drawn their last two games, but facing Halifax and Hartlepool is going to be very different to facing a bang in-form Harrogate side going for promotion. A few weeks ago Harrogate were going through a bit of a dodgy patch, but they have come out of the other side of that and they have won all bar two of their last 8 games. They have won their last 3 away games beating teams around Barnet in the league, Dover, Chesterfield and Braintree. Barnet should stay up, but they are finding it hard to win a game of football at the moment and most of that comes from the fact they can't score goals. They have only scored 7 goals in their last 10 league games and they missed some good chances again on Saturday. Harrogate should have enough to beat them and 1 goal might well be enough. 33/20 about an away win with Marathon looks a decent price.
Harrogate 2pts @ 33/20 with Marathon

Just failed to make a profit on Saturday but hopefully that can change on Tuesday night where I have 6 bets. This will be fairly brief as rather busy this week.
Aldershot v Leyton Orient and Eastleigh v Maidstone
I know Orient were held to a draw against Aldershot in the reverse fixture and they put in a good performance at Barrow on Saturday when being unfortunate to lose, but Orient really need to pick up 3 points in games like this if they are going to win the league and they should be too good for them. Eastleigh bounced straight back from losing to Halifax by beating Chesterfield 3-2 in an exciting game. Maidstone finally won another game of football by beating Havant, but this is a much tougher test and I can't see them getting anything. The double pays 2.19/1 with Marathon.
Barnet v Halifax
Barnet might have got something at Gateshead on Saturday had they not gone down to 10 men as they were a goal up at the time and ended up losing 2-1. Fact is it is 1 win in 9 now and they really need to be careful. I put up Halifax on Saturday and the game was called off so I won't repeat their stats, but given they beat Barnet 3-0 last week it is hard to understand why they are 14/5 (BetVictor) to beat them again here especially given they didn't play on Saturday.
Bromley v Chesterfield
Bromley have lost their last 3 although they only lost to a late penalty at Harrogate last week. They were poor on Saturday though as they lost 3-0 to Dagenham who had hardly been in great form of late. As mentioned above Chesterfield more than played their part in the 3-2 defeat to Eastleigh and that was only their 3rd defeat in their last 10 games with the other two coming against Harrogate and Wrexham. They are better than their current league position suggests and they certainly shouldn't be as big for this as they are (13/5 with Marathon)
Ebbsfleet v Maidenhead
Ebbsfleet were Halifax's opponents on Saturday so they haven't played either, but I still think Maidenhead offer value here at 19/5 with Marathon. They deserved their win over Sutton on Saturday especially as they only had 10 men for part of the game (Sutton also had a man sent off towards the end) and they are playing really solid as a squad as at the moment. 
Oxford City v Woking
God knows how Oxford conceded 5 goals to Hampton on Saturday given Hampton had only scored 4 goals in their previous 9 games. That makes it just 1 win and 1 draw in their last 10 games and they now face title chasing Woking. It is hard to understand why Woking are odds against (11/10 with Marathon) to win this as they should be odds on.
St Albans v Weston-Super-Mare
Weston produced a hell of a performance to beat Torquay a couple of weeks ago, but they then lost 5-0 to Wealdstone and could only play out a drab 0-0 draw with fellow bottom 3 side Hungerford. St Albans' home form is superb as they have only lost 1 of their last 10 home games and that was 7 games ago. They beat Dulwich on Saturday in a tough game and I think they will be too strong for the bottom side here. 143/100 with Marathon looks a big price.
Leyton Orient/Eastleigh 1pt double @ 2.19/1 with Marathon
Halifax 1pt @ 14/5 with BetVictor
Chesterfield 1pt @ 13/5 with Marathon
Maidenhead 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon
Woking 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Marathon
St Albans 2pts @ 143/100 with Marathon

The last 3 match days have been pretty horrendous although at least Chesterfield did win to cover some of Tuesday night's losses. It was doubly annoying that Concord scored a 90th minute winner as not only was the bet on a draw a loser, but Gloucester ended up losing as well. Hopefully the results will make a bit more sense this weekend and I have 7 bets.
Braintree v Harrogate
This tip pretty much writes itself and is a follow up from opposing Braintree on Tuesday night. They are playing like a team who know they are going to be relegated and just need putting out of their misery. After a dodgy spell the away side have found their form again having lost just one of their last 6 and that was against an in form, at the time, Ebbsfleet. They should be odds on for to win this and keep themselves in the play-off places.
Halifax v Ebbsfleet
I had Eastleigh on my shortlist last week to beat Halifax, but didn't put them up as Halifax are a team who are very hard to beat and they have conceded just 1 goal in their last 9 games. That goal came in their only loss in their last 10 games and was a penalty as well (ironically when I put them up to draw against Chelmsford). So in 9 games they have not conceded from open play. That is some going for a pretty average side, but those points have kept them clear of the relegation zone and crucially they have started winning matches now as they have won 3 of their last 4 including that Eastleigh game. They beat Barnet 3-0 on Tuesday night and I fancy them to beat an Ebbsfleet side whose small squad is now hindering them now they have injury issues. They have only won one of their last 6 although their may well be few goals as they have only once in their last 10 games have they conceded more than 1 goal. That included against Salford last week, but on the other hand they didn't manage one shot in the whole game. With Halifax looking more of an attacking threat of late they are overpriced to win this.
Maidenhead v Sutton
Maidenhead needed a late goal to get a point against Dagenham in a game I tipped them up in, but I am backing them again because I think they offer value. I also put Sutton up on Tuesday, but they were comfortably beaten by Salford and that game made it 4 games out of 5 where they have failed to score now. They haven't won in that spell either and as I said on Tuesday Maidenhead are in decent form at the moment. I'd make them slight favourites so the current price looks fair value.
Chester v Leamington
Chester's away form is shocking. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games on their travels and they won the other. They are bottom of the last 10 away games form table as well. I point this out to highlight the fact that at home they are a very different side and they sit in 4th in the last 10 home games form table. They have won 6 and lost just twice in that period and that is one of the reasons I make them the best bet of the weekend. The other is that Leamington are in dreadful form. They have lost four on the bounce, have won just one of their last ten and not won in 8 away games. Chester are the stronger team as well and everything points to a home win. There is no way it should be odds against and the price should be nearer the 4/6 mark.
Eastbourne v Chelmsford
I did wonder about backing Eastbourne last week given Mark McGhee has taken over as manager and they were playing Hampton, a side who I think deserve to go down. However they played out a dull 0-0 draw and McGhee clearly hadn't managed to get anymore out of his players than the former manager had. They have managed 3 points from 3 draws in their last 8 games now and Chelmsford should prove too good. They have only lost once in their last 10 games and currently sit in 3rd place. I have to say I didn't think a great deal of them when I saw them at Dulwich a couple of months back and they really struggled against Gloucester a couple of weeks ago, but the 3G pitch should suit them better than the mess that is the Evesham pitch. They are a big price to win this and again should really be odds on.
Wealdstone v Welling
Welling are a team in good form having lost just 3 in their last 10, but I have to take them on here. They have actually surprised me slightly given they had to reduce the wage budget yet they have still managed to get results, however most of those have come at home. Yes they might have won their last 2 away games, but they came against a badly out of form Oxford City and a Hungerford side in the bottom 3. This is a much different proposition as the home side haven't lost in 2019 which is a run of 11 games now. Hopefully that wont come to an end on Saturday.
Merstham v Haringey (Bostik Premier)
3rd plays 2nd here and I can't understand why Merstham aren't favs to win this. They sit 3 points behind Haringey, but they are in much better form. Haringey were top and had built up a healthy lead having gone on a long unbeaten run, but that seems a distant memory as they now sit 11 points behind Dorking (great news for those who backed them after I put them up at 33s) having won just 3 of their last 9 games. Merstham on the other hand are in really good form again having got pass a little 3 game blip where they only picked up a point. They have won all 3 games since and two of those came against sides in good form themselves. I just don't see how the prices are the way they are and the home side should be around the 5/4 mark not 19/10
Harrogate 2.5pts @ evs with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor
Halifax 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor
Maidenhead 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor
Chester 3pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Chelmsford 2pts 131/100 with Marathon
Wealdstone 1pt @ 139/100 with Marathon
Merstham 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor

Well Saturday was a disaster that I don't want to be repeating anytime soon. Not sure I have ever had a session like that where all the teams have actually lost and not even got a point. There were some bizarre results all over the place though and for no team in the top half of the National League South table to pick up 3 points just highlights that fact. Hopefully we can get some of the losses back on Tuesday night where I have 5 bets.
Barrow v Leyton Orient
Barrow lost 3-1 at Barnet for us on Saturday, but I am backing them again here. They gave away 3 sloppy goals and their strikers had an off day as well, but as their manager said afterwards 'we passed them off the park'. Barnet's boss also mentioned that they have played better and lost so I think I was certainly on the right track with tipping them up. I think this game gives them a great chance of bouncing straight back despite the fact they are playing Leyton Orient. Orient won on Saturday at Havant, but they had to work hard for it and it was another below par performance from the title hopefuls. This will be another tough test as Barrow will make things very hard for them at home and I think this game is much close than the bookies think and BetVictor's 31/10 about a home win is well worth backing.
Braintree v Chesterfield
Great news for those that backed Braintree to go down as I put up in my ante-post preview because they are as good as down now. All they have to do is finish bottom which was another bet I put up although they will have some competition with Maidstone for that. They were bad on Saturday losing 3-0 to Dover and I think an in form Chesterfield look a good price at 11/8 with Marathon and William Hill. Chesterfield only had their 2nd defeat in their last 10 games on Saturday at Wrexham and they were unfortunate not to pick up a point. Chesterfield know they have to pick up 3 points to ease their relegation fears and they really ought to do it fairly comfortably.
Maidenhead v Dagenham & Redbridge
Maidenhead have been in good form in recent weeks and fair play to Alan Devonshire who has turned them around, because they looked to be heading for relegation not so long ago. They had won 3 on the bounce before losing 2-1 at Fylde on Saturday, but that is hardly a disgrace and they took the lead. I think they can join their rivals on Tuesday on 43 points. I have had a love/hate relationship with Dagenham this season, but they are worth opposing for me. I don't think they have been playing that well and they were really lucky to get a point on Saturday at Harrogate scoring the equalizer in the 92nd minute and they only had 3 shots the whole game. Marathon's 7/5 about a home win looks attractive.
Salford City v Sutton United
I wrote on Twitter on Friday night about the fact the Racing Post had tipped up Salford on Saturday to beat Ebbsfleet. Now it was a winning tip so fair play for that, but my main issue on the tip was the fact it was factually incorrect. They talked about the quality Salford have shown this season, yet as I wrote when I opposed them last week they have been shocking for about 3 months bar the two wins over Wrexham and Leyton Orient. Salford weren't great on Saturday either and I think they were fortunate to play an Ebbsfleet side weakened with injuries as they only had 4 subs and 3 of those were academy players. Sutton finally scored a goal on Saturday after going 3 games without a goal. They managed to go 2 up against Hartlepool before conceding  2 and the game ended in a draw. I must admit Sutton aren't in the greatest of form, but Saturday was better and teams have been performing above themselves at Salford this season so they are a speculative punt at Bet365's 16/5.
Gloucester City v Concord Rangers
Gloucester have now drawn their last 4 home games 0-0. Indeed since the new management team have taken over they have only conceded 1 goal (amazingly we scored 2 in that game). One of the big reasons behind the lack of action at home games is the fact that the pitch at Evesham is a mess and it makes it hard for teams to play any sort of decent football on it. Gloucester are also being set up to keep a clean sheet against the better teams in the league so they can keep picking up a point at the very least.Concord have only lost one of their last 9 games, but they have drawn 7 of those. All things point to this game being a draw and Marathon are best at 58/25.
Barrow 1pt @ 31/10 with BetVictor
Chesterfield 2pts @ 11/8 with Marathon and William Hill
Maidenhead 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon
Sutton 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
Gloucester v Concord 1pt draw @ 58/25 with Marathon

A cracking weekend with some big prices landed and hopefully we can end February on a high as I have 2 bets for tonight and 1 for tomorrow.
Just the tips for now preview to follow later
East Thurrock v Torquay
This preview pretty much writes itself. East Thurrock are really bad and I will be amazed if they don't go down. The match report for their game against Hampton at the weekend made for some funny reading as the reporter tried to convey how poor and dull the game was. If Torquay turn up in the right frame of mind, and they should do given they are going for the title, this should be a comfortable win and they should cover the -1 handicap.
Hartley Wintney v Wimborne Town
Not a league I put up bets in too often, but the in form away side look a fair bet here. They have only lost once in their last 10 games and that has included getting a point against leaders Taunton and beating another title contender Met Police 3-0. The slight concern would be their away form, but otherwise it looks a solid bet. Their hosts have only won twice in their last 10 and they have been against poor sides in Walton Casuals (who have beaten them since as well) and on Saturday they beat Tiverton, but again they are a poor side. 
Lewes v Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge have had a very up and down season so far. They started of superbly and were top for a while. They then could hardly buy a win before coming out the other side and going 8 games unbeaten whilst wining 6 of them. They had their first lose on Saturday against Merstham, but they are flying themselves and put up a decent performance especially in the first half. Lewes have only won a couple in their last 10 matches and only picked up 2 points in their last 5 games. They just seem to be struggling at the moment and Angels look overpriced to bounce straight back from Saturday's defeat.
Torquay -1 2pts @ 6/5 with Unibet and 888
Wimborne Town 1pt @ 31/20 with Marathon
Tonbridge Angels 1pt @ 85/40 with BetVictor

A decent day last Saturday with some big priced winners and hopefully the final Saturday of the month can be a winning one as well. I have 7 bets this weekend.
Previews to follow
Salford v Eastleigh
Eastleigh might have one or two key injury concerns going into this game, but they have to be backed to beat a Salford team who have pretty much been poor for 2 months now. In their last 10 league games they have picked up just 8 points and they would be in the relegation zone. They are hardly playing like the richest team in the division and clearly not like a team who are possible champions. What is really bizarre is that in this spell of 10 games they arguably put in their best two performances of the season when beating Wrexham and Leyton Orient at the start of the year. I thought Salford had made the wrong choice of manager and Graham Alexander is struggling to get his team to perform especially against the lesser sides in the division given they have lost to Braintree and Dover the last twice. He must be fairly close to the sack because if they aren't careful they might not even make the play-offs. Eastleigh are one of the form sides in the division and they would actually go above Salford should they win this game. The prices are clearly wrong here as they shouldn't be that far apart and Eastleigh have the 3rd best away record in the division.
Bradford Park Avenue v Chester
I have written plenty about BPA in recent weeks and they haven't won in 7 now. They were lucky to pick up a point against Altrincham last week and I think Chester are worth backing to beat them here. Granted Chester have only won twice in their last 9 games, but they have had a lot of injuries and they are coming out the other side of that. They were really impressive in beating Boston 4-1 last week and they should be capable of taking that performance and building on it here.
Dartford v Woking
I fancy 4 bets in the National League South this week starting with what is the pick of the games in the division. There is every chance this could be a feisty affair as when they played the reverse fixture earlier in the month Woking ended the game with 9 men and Dartford got their winner deep into injury time. Granted Woking have only lost 1 game away in the league all season, but I think it is worth backing them to lose their 2nd here. Dartford are really strong at home themselves having only lost twice and one of those was against Torquay who they played very well against. I don't think their is much between these two sides and their is set to be a big crowd for this. It is clearly no gimmie, but I reckon the value certainly is with the home side. 
Hungerford v Welling
Welling are looking like two different sides at the moment. At home they have won 12 drawn 2 and lost 2, whilst they beat Torquay in South East London last weekend. Away from home though they have won just 4, drawn 3 and lost 8. In 8 away games on the trot they picked up just 1 point before beating Oxford City in their last away match. That says little though given how bad form they are in at the moment. Hungerford are in the relegation zone at the moment, but they are showing signs that they can get themselves out of it. At home they have been pretty strong of late, bar a couple of blips, and they thrashed St Albans 5-0 in their last home game. They should have won last week at Chippenham as well but they had a man (possibly wrongly) sent off when 2 up and they ended up drawing. If Welling played like they did against Torquay last week they would win this, but clearly away from home they are a very different beast and Hungerford look over priced here.
Oxford City v Billericay
I opposed Oxford last week with Truro which was a winning bet and I think they are worth opposing again against a bang in form Billericay. As I mentioned the other week when I put up Billericay when they beat Slough, they look an improved side under Harry Wheeler. City have picked up just 1 point in their last 7 games now and Billericay have won 4 on the bounce since Wheeler came back to manage them. Their only 2 losses away from home in their last 10 away games was when they were in woeful form over Christmas and they look value at odds against to pick up another 3 points as they try to get themselves back into the title picture.
St Albans v Truro
St Albans' form is all over the place as it was last season and they are likely to be too inconsistent again to get into the play-offs. They have only managed to beat Hampton in their last 6 games (and they are bad having seen them in the flesh last week), although as if to prove my point about how inconsistent they are they have drawn with Woking in that spell. I have long suspected that Truro were going to pull themselves away from the relegation zone and as mentioned above they won for us last week. Truro have lost their last 3 away games, but they have played Welling, Chippenham and Billericay so they have been tough games. I think they have a much better chance than the odds suggest here.
Corinthian Casuals v Margate
Into the Bostik Premier and I thought about putting up Margate last week as the arrival of Jay Saunders as manager was a very good sign for me. It is worth pointing out that he could have been a Football League manager as Macclesfield wanted him in the summer, but he turned them down. Maidstone then sacked him not long into the season and I bet they are wishing they hadn't now as they look almost certain to go down. So Margate have got themselves a good manager and they are ones to keep an eye on for next season as Saunders would not have gone their if they didn't want to be in the promotion hunt next season. They won last week against bang in form Brightlingsea and I fancy them here to overcome a Casuals side who have lost 4 games on the bounce.
Eastleigh 1pt @ 15/4 with Bet365 and Marathon
Chester 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Dartford 1pt @ 68/25 with Marathon
Hungerford 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor
Billericay 2.5pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
Truro 1pt @ 3/1 with Unibet
Margate 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor and Boylesports

Cardiff vs Watford
The Premier League returns after a breakk for the FA Cup action and we're treated to a Friday night double header. One of those games is between Cardiff and Watford at the Cardiff City Stadium in a 7:45pm kick-off. Why is it on Friday? Well, it's only the Wales versus England match in the Six Nations on the Saturday and those two can't clash!
Cardiff have experienced a turbulent start to 2019 but now the emotional side of things is subsiding there's an opportunity to maintain focus and build on the back-to-back wins the Bluebirds have earned against Bournemouth and Southampton. Those 6 points gained have proved the critics wrong and kept Cardiff outside the drop zone. Had they lost both of those matches then they'd be 5 points adrift and looking fairly helpless.
Watford continue to enjoy a decent season. Javi Gracia has led his team to 8th in the table and the Hornets booked their place in the FA Cup Quarter-Finals this past weekend. Unfortunately, it's only 1 win in their last 4 league matches so there are slight concerns amongst the Watford fan base that cup distractions have rocked their league form.
These two sides met rather recently on 15th December when it was Watford that came away as 3-2 winners. It was probably a less comfortable score-line than the whole 90 minutes suggested. As a Cardiff fan, I can honestly say that first half was one of the most one-sided displays I've seen my side suffer with Watford really missing the chances to take a 5-0 or 6-0 lead into half-time. However, it did show how easily they could be broken down if we backed ourselves a bit more.
Luckily, Neil Warnock has appeared to embraced a new attack-minded approach and it's paying dividends. We've been the better team in both of the games we've just won and our players are finally playing with a belief that they belong at this level. That's something only a few of them have had. The signing of Oumar Niasse and inclusion of Bobby Reid has also helped. The anticipated return of Victor Camarasa is an added bonus... even though we won both league games without him playing.
Watford have had the better of us over recent meetings with Watford winning the last two head-to-head clashes. We have only won 2 of the last 7 encounters. That said, I fancy us to get something from this game. Confidence is growing in the Cardiff camp. Warnock gave our players some time off with their families to get some perspective, inspiration, and rest. I hope the break does us good rather than damage but I am quietly hopeful we can get a point and even sneak a win here on Friday night.
Cardiff Draw No Bet @ 2.26 with MarathonBet
BTTS @ 1.81 with 888Sport
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Liverpool will win this today... Bayern with some troubles over the whole Season in Defensive and they have this season big Problems with Counter Attacks from the Opponents. And that is big Liverpool Advantage with this Offensive. Also Bayern Winger Coman is bid doubt, will he miss it would be tough for Bayern...
Also German Teams never looking good, when they must played in England. So for me Liverpool to win with medium Stakes and the AHC -1.5 with very small Stake.
Also Liverpool didn´t play at Weekend so they had over 1 Week to prepare for this Game, while Bayern showed not a good Performance against Augsburg. If they didn´t show a very good Game tonight it can be terrible Night for them...

Liverpool will win this today... Bayern with some troubles over the whole Season in Defensive and they have this season big Problems with Counter Attacks from the Opponents. And that is big Liverpool Advantage with this Offensive. Also Bayern Winger Coman is bid doubt, will he miss it would be tough for Bayern...
Also German Teams never looking good, when they must played in England. So for me Liverpool to win with medium Stakes and the AHC -1.5 with very small Stake.
Also Liverpool didn´t play at Weekend so they had over 1 Week to prepare for this Game, while Bayern showed not a good Performance against Augsburg. If they didn´t show a very good Game tonight it can be terrible Night for them...

Liverpool will win this today... Bayern with some troubles over the whole Season in Defensive and they have this season big Problems with Counter Attacks from the Opponents. And that is big Liverpool Advantage with this Offensive. Also Bayern Winger Coman is bid doubt, will he miss it would be tough for Bayern...
Also German Teams never looking good, when they must played in England. So for me Liverpool to win with medium Stakes and the AHC -1.5 with very small Stake.
Also Liverpool didn´t play at Weekend so they had over 1 Week to prepare for this Game, while Bayern showed not a good Performance against Augsburg. If they didn´t show a very good Game tonight it can be terrible Night for them...

It was good to be back in profit on a Saturday after a couple of tough weekends. Hopefully that will continue this Saturday where I have 6 bets.
Boreham Wood v Hartlepool
Just one bet in the National League this week and I am glad that Wood have signed Haringey's star striker this week as it makes them even weaker in their bid to stop Dorking winning the Bostik Premier, but I am not sure he will turn the home sides form around. Goals have been an issue for them so they have had to do something and they were lacking in that department again on Saturday when losing 1-0 at Maidenhead. It has been 6 league games since they last picked up 3 points although to be fair they have drawn half of those so they are still making themselves hard to beat, but I think the away side are value here. Having only lost twice at home they have then gone and lost their last two home games to Maidstone and Havant and Hartlepool should on paper be a much tougher test. Richard Money was a mistake, but at least Hartlepool have done something about it and the team has really improved for Craig Hignett. They beat Braintree and then they drew with Leyton Orient last Saturday and if they had scored a penalty then they would have taken 3 points against the team 2nd in the league. I think they have a real chance of picking up 3 points here and the 12/5 with Bet365 and BetVictor.
Hampton & Richmond v Gloucester City
For my sins I am off to watch my side again on Saturday. I have seen us more this season than I have for a long time and given I have only seen us win once it has been on the whole a pretty depressing experience. However I think we are a very attractive price to win this. We had to sack Chris Todd as his stint was a massive failure, but I thought getting Mike Cook in his place was a mistake. However he has massively improved the side and they have won 2 and drawn 2 of the 4 games he has been in charge for. Crucially in that time just one goal has been conceded and we look as strong at the back as we did before Todd took over. Granted goals are still a concern and the 2 against Slough on Tuesday night were the first 2 goals from open play since before Christmas.1st half against Slough we only had one shot, but the 2nd half was much better and we scored 2 good goals. If we can play like that then I am very hopeful we can beat a Hampton side who I don't rate at all. Strangely enough they also played Slough in their last match and they were very lucky to get a point as Slough were much the better team and Hampton equalised in injury time. I have said before there is little between most of the sides in the bottom half of the NLS and there is no way City should be over 3/1 to win this game. Hampton struggle to score goals so a 0-0 wouldn't be a big surprise, but Gloucester are playing with much more confidence than they were and there is every chance they could get the 1 goal which might well be all they need to win this.
Slough v Dartford
Speaking of Slough for all they should have won last Saturday against Hampton the fact remains they have only won once in their last 9 games and not at all in their last 5. That is puts them in 20th place in the 10 game form table. Their issues seem to be in the 2nd half as that seems to be where they are dropping points. Dartford are flying at the moment and it looks like they will be in the play-offs yet again. They have only lost twice in their last 10 matches and that has seen them rise up the table. Their away form is a slight concern. It took them until deep into injury time to beat a 9 man Woking in their last away game and they hadn't won in 4 prior to that including only drawing at East Thurrock. However that is more than factored into the price as they shouldn't be anywhere near 3/1 (BetVictor) to win this.
Truro v Oxford City
Oxford's form has fallen off the edge of a cliff and they have picked up just one point in their last 6 games. That point came against an out of form Eastbourne side as well. Truro might have only won one of their last 5, but they have only lost by the odd goal when they have lost and those were against better teams than Oxford. I think they are a bit better than their league position suggests as well and given they have more to play for than Oxford I think a price just over 6/4 (Marathon) looks a good one about a home win.
Darlington v Southport
Granted the home side are doing pretty well themselves having lost just twice in their last 9 league games although the win at Blyth was their first in 4. Southport's good form looked to have come to an end losing two including 4-0 at home to AFC Telford, but they then bounced straight back with a hugely impressive 5-3 win over leaders Chorley last Saturday. This is no gimmie, but I do think the away side are over priced at 21/10 (BetVictor) because I do think they are one of the best teams in the division despite their league position.
Treble
I rarely put up a treble, but this one pays 5/1 with BetVictor and it makes plenty of appeal. I have written plenty about Bradford Park Avenue and the fact they clearly don't want promotion. I'm not surprised Altrincham have been backed and I think they will win. Nuneaton look in even a bigger mess than they did when I opposed them last week as the new owner has left them this week and the club really is in a sorry state. I just can'[t see how 3rd placed Spennymoor don't pick up another 3 points. Welling have had to cut their budget in recent weeks as well which is a shame as it might well cost them a play-off place. Torquay travel to South East London this weekend and they look almost unstoppable at the moment and are pretty much scoring goals for fun.
Hartlepool 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet 365 and BetVictor
Gloucester 1pt @ 63/20 with Marathon
Dartford 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor
Truro 1pt @ 153/100 with Marathon
Southport 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor
Altrincham/Spennymoor/Torquay 1pt @ 5/1 with BetVictor

I didn't do too badly with picking out games that would be on last week, but sadly Stockport were the only winners although at least they kept losses down given the big price they were. Dorking came good in mid-week which pretty much covered Saturday's losses. No weather issues this weekend so unlike the horse racing everything should be on.
Aldershot v Eastleigh
Aldershot holding Dagenham to a draw was costly a couple of weeks ago, but I think there is value in opposing them again here. I wrote in that preview that Dagenham should only need 1 goal and it wasn't quite enough in the end, but the fact remains that Aldershot aren't heavy scorers and there is every chance Eastleigh again will only need 1 goal. Eastleigh's away form had been strong and then they only got 1 point in 4 away league games, but they bounced back a couple of weeks ago when winning at Bromley. They are in play-off contention and I'm still not sure that Waddock is going to be able to keep Aldershot up.
Chesterfield v Halifax
I shouldn't have given up on backing the draw in Chesterfield games as in the league they have drawn 4 of their 7 games since they beat Salford which was the last time I backed the draw in their matches. Those 4 have come in their last 5 and the win was only against Aldershot. They were poor in the FA Trophy last weekend and although it might not have been a priority it was still concerning they lost to Brackley so easily. Halifax have drawn their last 5 games and you can add another two if looking at their last 9 league matches. The stats clearly tell you that the draw is value here and it has to be worth a play.
Wrexham v Dagenham & Redbridge
God knows what is going on at Wrexham as yet again losing their manager to the Football League looks set to derail their efforts to get into the Football League. Last season they imploded when Keates left and this season things have gone downhill after Sam Ricketts move. To be fair that's not entirely true as they continued in good form to start with, but since the turn of the year they have been desperate losing 4 on the bounce and managing to only beat a Maidenhead side who managed 1 shot the whole game, 1-0. Another managerial change has happened and inexperience Bryan Hughes has come in. Apparently he is looking to improve their attacking which goes without saying given they struggle for goals. All the upheaval can't be good though and Dagenham have the potential to punish them. I really do have a love/hate relationship with Dagenham this season, but 19/5 really is too big a price to not back them here.
Nuneaton v Boston (National League North)
Pretty safe to say that Nuneaton will be playing Step 3 football next season and despite being taken over things still don't seem great off the pitch. On the pitch they have won just once at home all season and they have picked up just 2 points in their last 8 games. Boston are on the edge of the play-offs and they are pretty solid away from home this season and only lost 1-0 at Spennymoor in their last away game. That is their only defeat in their last 5 matches as well and an odds against quote looks too big for me here.
Hyde United v Matlock (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Not only have Matlock won just 4 games on the road this season they are in poor form overall. They have picked up just two points in their last 6 games and although they are only just behind their hosts in the table they are clearly struggling of late. Hyde have been in good form of late and take out the loss to Bamber Bridge their last 9 league matches have seen good performances even in the other two games they have lost which have come against good sides. They look a bet at 6/5.
Spennymoor v Bradford Park Avenue & North Ferriby v Workington
The BPA game got called off last week, but they are worth opposing here against a bang in form Spennymoor side who have won their last 4 league matches and have lost just two of their last 10. BPA have only 2 points in their last 6 games and as I pointed out last week they have let players go as it looks like the club don't really want promotion. The home side have gone odds on now, but I think they are worth doubling up with Workington. Now Workington are 1 from bottom and North Ferriby are bottom in the Evo-Stik Northern Premier, but it really should be an away win. North Ferriby have won 2 lost 22 and have a goal difference of -51. Workington are showing signs of possibly being able to stay up and they do have games in hand to help as well. North Ferriby have lost 9 on the bounce and have conceded at least twice in all of them. Workington have won their last 2 and only lost on of their last 4. This is a must win game for them if they are going to stay up whereas North Ferriby know their fate already. The double pays 257/100 with Marathon.
Eastleigh 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon & William Hill
Chesterfield v Halifax draw 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 19/5 with Betfred
Boston 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
Hyde United 2pts @ 6/5 with BetVictor
Spennymoor/Workington 1pt double @ 257/100 with Marathon
 
 

Think Brentford and Wolves should do this in 90 Minutes.... Other Games are very close... Expected very tough Games here and specially in Newport i smell a surprise. For Sure Pullis take FA-Cup serious - every Time but now they must made Changes. They have 2 important Games in next Days with League Games against Leeds and Sheffield United. So if they want the Promotion i think 100% Focus is on the Championship...

From what I can tell the two Bostik Prem matches are still on. Dover has been given the go ahead and although some games on 3g pitches have been called off the Harrogate game is still on.
There are 3 games still left on in the National League South and I fancy the 3 home sides. Concord have drawn a lot lately but as I have written before about them their home form is very strong and they ought to be beating a poor and out of form Dulwich side at home. Chelmsford host Hungerford and Hungerford's little good spell of form looks to be over. Truro look more than capable of beating an Eastbourne side who managed to lose to East Thurrock last week. It is a long old journey for them as well and Truro should be looking to make home advantage count.
The treble pays just over 5/1 and looks worth a punt with some of the money we have got back from the games that have been called off.
Chelmsford, Concord & Truro 1pt treble 5.18/1 with Betway

January was very up and down to say the least, but it was good to end it with a winner on Tuesday night especially as it got one over the Asian markets which is always pleasing especially after the last couple of bets I had opposed them on had been losers. No doubt the weather is going to get in the way this weekend so I won't go into too much detail as I doubt all these will go ahead, but there are 7 teams I like. 
Dover v Gateshead
Gateshead lost their leading striker to Chesterfield this week and they weren't happy as they are currently under a transfer embargo so they can't sign a replacement. They haven't won in 6 league games now and they travel to a Dover side who have lost just once in their last 10. Hopefully this game has a better chance than most of beating the weather given the location and Marathon's 6/4 looks a decent price on a home win.
Maidenhead v Dagenham & Redbridge
It is a bit of a love hate relationship with Dagenham at the moment as they cost us last week when conceding against a goal shy Aldershot. Even so they look overpriced at 9/5 with Bet365 to beat a Maidenhead who are going to struggle to stay up. Granted they were a bit unlucky to not get a point against Solihull in their last home game, but they then went to a Wrexham side on a poor run of form and managed just 1 shot in the whole game. Granted they will probably be a bit more attacking minded here, but the away side are value to pick up the 3 points.
Bradford Park Avenue v Leamington 
The only game BPA have not lost in their last 5 was when I tipped Blyth against them at a big price and Blyth missed an injury time penalty to win the game. Although the board claimed they do want promotion their actions spoke louder than words as they have let 3 of their best players leave and it seems they know they can't really sustain a club at National League level. They obviously wouldn't turn promotion down should they win it, but they would obviously prefer it if they stayed at this level. Granted Leamington were winning their first game in 10 on Saturday when they beat Altrincham 3-0, but that was a hell of a performance and they have drawn 6 of their last 10 games so it isn't like they are losing all the time. 11/4 with Bet365 on the away win looks more than fair.
Brightlingsea Regent v Whitehawk (Bostik Premier)
Backing Whitehawk didn't quite pay off last week as they had to come from 2 down, but they conceded after 3 minutes and that obviously always changes things when a team scores that earlier. The fact they fought back proves they are improving and although Brightlingsea have been on a strong run of form I think the away side are worth a small bet at a big price.
Bishops Stortford v Merstham (Bostik Premier)
The away side are now unbeaten in 10 league games after beating Worthing on Wednesday night. It isn't as if they have had an easy run of fixtures either as they have played plenty of the teams around them at the top of the table including the top 2 teams. The home team have lost 6 of their last 8 and the two wins were against teams in the bottom 4. 6/4 looks a big price on an away win.
Hartley Wintney v Wimborne Town (Evo-Stik Southern Prem South)
The away side are on an impressive run of form losing just once in their last 9 league games including drawing with top of the table Taunton last Saturday and beating 3rd place Met Police 3-0 on Tuesday night. The home side have won just once in their last 7 games and an away win is attractively priced.
Harrogate v Stockport (FA Trophy)
This game is almost certain to go ahead as Harrogate play on a 3G pitch and I fancy there could be an upset. Both are going well in their respective leagues, but I think Stockport are more than capable of winning this. I don't think there is as much between these two sides as the prices suggest and at nearly 4/1 Stockport are a value play.
Dover 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
Leamington 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365
Whitehawk 1pt @ 103/20 with Marathon
Merstham 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon
Wimborne Town 2.5pts @ 83/50 with Marathon
Stockport 1pt @ 39/10 with Marathon

I´ve got 2 early Bets for the next Weekend here.
First is Werder Bremen to Win against Nuernberg.
Bremen in first 2 Games after Winter Break with 2 very good Games. Against Hannover deserved the Win and now they Draw at Home against Frankfurt - but to be honest - that was a MUST WIN game. Bremen showed a good Performance with many Chances on his Side. Like the First Game against Hannover - where they have also many Chances. Problem for now is that they need too much Chances for Goals. But now in Nuernberg i expected the same game from Bremen - which they showed against Hannover. Nuernberg for me on the same quality Level from Hannover at the Moment and lost both Games after Winter Break. They have on every Position quality Difference to Bremen and for me the only Chance for Nuernberg is to fight for his Life. But didn´t think that this is realstic to grab something out of this Game.

The other Bet for me is AHC+1 on Leverkusen. Bayern Munich not such so dominate in his Games so far this Season. And now they are in a Situation where they MUST WIN every Game... Against Stuttgart - Munich won 4-1 but that´s only on Paper. Stuttgart wasn´t such Bad and now against Leverkusen with his new Coach Bosz it will be a difficult one. Leverkusen with 2 good Performances in Leauge won 1 Game and lost First one against Gladbach - but who saw the Game. Gladbach don´t know why.... IN both Games after Winter Break Leverkusen show some good Offensive Performances with many, many Chances. And now at Home against Munich - everyone are more Motivated. And maybe they can grab something.....

Bremen @ 1.95 6/10 bwin
Leverkusen AHC+1 @ 2.05 3/10 bet365

I´m also on a Combo with the Wins from Leipzig and Hoffenheim....
Leipzig today against Hannover - who have new Coach, but for me New Coach Doll isn´t that good Coach and also the problem is the squad. Who is not good enough for Bundesliga. Leipzig want to play CL next Season - so this is must Win.
Leipzig+Hoffenheim @ 2.33 5/10 interwetten

I´m also on a Combo with the Wins from Leipzig and Hoffenheim....
Leipzig today against Hannover - who have new Coach, but for me New Coach Doll isn´t that good Coach and also the problem is the squad. Who is not good enough for Bundesliga. Leipzig want to play CL next Season - so this is must Win.
Leipzig+Hoffenheim @ 2.33 5/10 interwetten

I´ve got 2 early Bets for the next Weekend here.
First is Werder Bremen to Win against Nuernberg.
Bremen in first 2 Games after Winter Break with 2 very good Games. Against Hannover deserved the Win and now they Draw at Home against Frankfurt - but to be honest - that was a MUST WIN game. Bremen showed a good Performance with many Chances on his Side. Like the First Game against Hannover - where they have also many Chances. Problem for now is that they need too much Chances for Goals. But now in Nuernberg i expected the same game from Bremen - which they showed against Hannover. Nuernberg for me on the same quality Level from Hannover at the Moment and lost both Games after Winter Break. They have on every Position quality Difference to Bremen and for me the only Chance for Nuernberg is to fight for his Life. But didn´t think that this is realstic to grab something out of this Game.

The other Bet for me is AHC+1 on Leverkusen. Bayern Munich not such so dominate in his Games so far this Season. And now they are in a Situation where they MUST WIN every Game... Against Stuttgart - Munich won 4-1 but that´s only on Paper. Stuttgart wasn´t such Bad and now against Leverkusen with his new Coach Bosz it will be a difficult one. Leverkusen with 2 good Performances in Leauge won 1 Game and lost First one against Gladbach - but who saw the Game. Gladbach don´t know why.... IN both Games after Winter Break Leverkusen show some good Offensive Performances with many, many Chances. And now at Home against Munich - everyone are more Motivated. And maybe they can grab something.....

Bremen @ 1.95 6/10 bwin
Leverkusen AHC+1 @ 2.05 3/10 bet365