DanV89

3.30 Lingfield - One To Go - 9/1
Has had 4 runs since a break and admittedly has been poor but all those 4 runs have been on turf (latest on heavy when beaten 20 lengths) and all have been partnered by amateur lady jockeys. Prior to his break he'd been running consistently on the AW including over course and distance when a neck 2nd to Crimewave off 70. That day One To Go carried 3lb less than the winner, today he re-opposes on 5lb better terms off 67. Has been held up recently but from a plumb draw in stall 1 with Adam McNamara on board who has won on him before i'd expect him to go forward.

3.30 Lingfield - One To Go - 9/1
Has had 4 runs since a break and admittedly has been poor but all those 4 runs have been on turf (latest on heavy when beaten 20 lengths) and all have been partnered by amateur lady jockeys. Prior to his break he'd been running consistently on the AW including over course and distance when a neck 2nd to Crimewave off 70. That day One To Go carried 3lb less than the winner, today he re-opposes on 5lb better terms off 67. Has been held up recently but from a plumb draw in stall 1 with Adam McNamara on board who has won on him before i'd expect him to go forward.

5th in a bit of a blanket finish where the winner got first run. Ran keen early on and I could be wrong but Kirby didn’t look like he went for the full drive either. One for another time I think. 

11.35 Lingfield - Stay Classy - 8/1
I backed this one last time at around 16/1, there was a bit of money around for her that day and she was backed into around 10/1 at one point. That race was over 7f at Wolves, she got a very wide trip under 5lb claimer Angus Villiers and then finished really well into 2nd. Steps back up to a mile here today which looks sure to suit and has Adam Kirby up this time which can only be a positive. Looks a good ew price and would be surprised if she wasn't involved in the finish.

Ascot stage an enthralling card on Friday and here are my early thought’s :-
12.20
A no play race from a punting perspective but it’s the chase debut of Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House who has schooled excellently and despite the fact he is rated a 3lb officially inferior horse to danger Pic D’Orhy his stable will be very disappointed if he doesn’t win this. A race not to miss.
12.55
It could be Nicky Henderson’s day at the Berkshire track with TIME FLIES BY the most likely winner. A Cheltenham bumper winner he ran twice over hurdles last season with his trainer stating in a recent Racing Post stable file that he ‘does everything right and should go far’ He’ll do for me here. Paul Nicholls’ Danny Kirwan has undoubted ability and apparently needed his season re-appearance when 3rd at Aintree but he’s seven now and has yet to win a race. Kim Bailey’s The Edgar Wallace is an interesting hurdles debutant , the trainer has been in top form this season and this is the most expensive young horse he’s ever bought winning a bumper for him last season and by all accounts he jumps well.  Time Flies By is a confident selection on a day that may be dominated by the master of Seven Barrows Nicky Henderson. 
TIME FLIES BY 2 points win @ 4/5 bet365
1.30
An intriguing contest with four potentially smart lightly raced horses. Nicky Henderson called his French recruit GIPSY DE CHOISEL very nice in a recent Racing Post stable file and now in the double green colours of Messr’s Munir & Souede could be the one. Harry Fry unleashes Metier who impressed when winning at Newton Abbot 3 weeks ago whilst Paul Nicholls saddles the JP owned Nimix De Juilley, another ex French horse but without a run for 792 days (never mentioned in his recent RP stable tour) with the biggest danger to Henderson’s coming from the Tizzard horse Amarillo Sky, an expensive purchase from the Irish pointing field and a highly promising fourth to Henderson’s Dusart at Newbury when the Tizzard horses weren’t really firing. The vibes are good for Henderson’s and he’s the bet.
 
GIPSY DE CHOISEL 1 point win @ 2/1 william hill
2.05
Espoir De Guye has had a wind op since we last saw him following a lack lustre effort at the Festival last season in the Novices’ Handicap Chase. A 255 day absence doesn’t usually bother a Venetia Williams trained horse and despite racing here off of a 14lb higher mark than when winning at the course last December he should run well.
Deauville Dancer starts out for the first time for Olly Murphy having previously been trained by David Dennis and although you could arguably classify that as a trainer upgrade the Murphy yard are not really firing at the moment (despite a nice bumper winner on Tuesday). An outsider I think is worth backing is the Paul Henderson trained 11 year old DOITFORTHEVILLAGE who has tumbled down the handicap to a very low mark. Forget his latest run when his trainer stated afterwards the ground wasn’t soft enough for him, surprisingly he was dopped 6lb for that run. Rated as high as 140 only four runs ago he races here off of 129 and could be value despite been the oldest member of the 9 strong field
DOITFORTHEVILLAGE ½ point ew 16/1 bet365
2.40
BUZZ stands out here and will take some beating. Nicky Henderson’s six year old was a highly credible third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time at Ffos Las with Ecco some 28 lengths behind him that day and only 1lb better off here. That form looks very good now with the winner Sceau Royal winning at Wincanton and Ballyandy who placed second that day running the same position in last weekend’s  Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham even  the 5th Mario De Pail has won since. Only a pound higher here he stands out like a sore thumb. I can see him being very well backed. The opposition look weighted upto their ability and Buzz is the days nap bet.
BUZZ  3 point win @ 6/4 bet365
3.15
Dr Newland has had a good Autumn with his small string at his Worcestershire yard and can take this with MR MULDOON who won at Sedgefield on his chasing debut in a 9 runner novice event. Lack of experience is unlikely to be a problem as he has had 6 runs in Irish points and has failed to miss the frame in six outings under rules. The handicapper reacted by rising him 2lb for that run but the step up to 3m is much more to his liking and he holds a strong chance. Paul Nicholls’ Favorito Buck’s won this event two years ago and can race off of a 1lb lower mark so also comes into calculations though his last run was poor. Top weight Wandarin Star has won first time out the last two seasons and has had his wind tinkered with since last season so is another with some potential if fancied for the Kim Bailey yard.
MR MULDOON 1 point win 3/1 william hill
3.45
A tough handicap with the first show being 9/2 the field. The most interesting contender being the top weight Enqarde an ex French 6 year old having his first run for Dr Newland. The market will tell us what’s expected here no doubt.
Apple Rock flopped last time but that may have came too soon following his facile victory at Carlisle 8 days earlier and could be in with a chance despite a rise in the weights. It may be worth a speculative ew bet on Paul Henderson’s HATCHET JACK who may well have needed his well beaten 5th to Metier (runs in 2nd race) at Newton Abbot. He has some good handicap form in better company than this in the past and has dropped to a mark 10lb lower than when he was back then. He’s still a maiden and has obviously been hard to train so we’ll need a big price and small stakes but it’s that type of race!
HATCHET JACK ½ point each way 11/1 bet365
 
 
 
 
 

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1
Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1
Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

Well done Dan, good post keep them coming

11.35 Lingfield - Stay Classy - 8/1
I backed this one last time at around 16/1, there was a bit of money around for her that day and she was backed into around 10/1 at one point. That race was over 7f at Wolves, she got a very wide trip under 5lb claimer Angus Villiers and then finished really well into 2nd. Steps back up to a mile here today which looks sure to suit and has Adam Kirby up this time which can only be a positive. Looks a good ew price and would be surprised if she wasn't involved in the finish.

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1
Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1
Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

11.35 Lingfield - Stay Classy - 8/1
I backed this one last time at around 16/1, there was a bit of money around for her that day and she was backed into around 10/1 at one point. That race was over 7f at Wolves, she got a very wide trip under 5lb claimer Angus Villiers and then finished really well into 2nd. Steps back up to a mile here today which looks sure to suit and has Adam Kirby up this time which can only be a positive. Looks a good ew price and would be surprised if she wasn't involved in the finish.

Yeah said to a mate this morning I noticed him at about 12s last night but hadn't looked at the race properly so didn't back him and then saw some decent money for him this morning!

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1
Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

NR & 3rd

NR & 3rd

NR & 3rd

4.50 Newcastle - El Hombre - 18/1
Has drifted so far today which is an obvious concern but looks a decent price nevertheless. Hasn't been beaten far at all in his last couple of starts at Wolves & Kempton respectively, both over 6f and weakened slightly late on. Was only 6th at Kempton last time but was only beaten 2 lengths so the result isn't reflective of the run. Has a good record at Newcastle overall and on his last start here was 4th to Caspian Price only beaten 1.75 lengths off 90. Runs off 84 today back in trip to 5f and should be capable off that mark as his last win came off 88.
5.30 Chelmsford - Merhoob - 12/1
Bit of a speculative one this as he has been well beaten in 4 starts since a break. However there should be plenty pace on in this race which will suit the hold-up style of Merhoob. Returned to action off 96 at this track in September and after more uninspiring runs he runs off 86 tonight. 2 time course and distance winner off 77 & 90 so could be good enough if on a going day and returning to any sort of form.

For those that had the bet with Bet365 remember that is was one of their Feature 4/1 Offer races so if you backed it at more than 4/1 you will be entitled to a free bet equivalent to your stake (assuming you had less than the maximum £50!) on the 1.40 at Wincanton tomorrow.

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.
In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.
Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

Yep, always a risk but I don't hold to the conspiracy theorists who claim there is always a late non runner that reduces the place terms.

12.50 Southwell - George Thomas - 16/1
Been a bit of support around for this one this morning but still 16/1 available with 888Sport at the time of typing. Without stating the obvious, Southwell is a bit of a specialist track and this horse has had 3 visits here with form figures of 233, all over 5f and all earlier this year. Those runs came off 62, 62 & 61. Has since had runs at the likes of Lingfield, Wolves & a couple of turf outings but to no avail. Runs in this off 46 so based on previous course form must have a decent shout here. Hasn't run since August but that isn't a concern as he has won after a 2 month break previously.

12.50 Southwell - George Thomas - 16/1
Been a bit of support around for this one this morning but still 16/1 available with 888Sport at the time of typing. Without stating the obvious, Southwell is a bit of a specialist track and this horse has had 3 visits here with form figures of 233, all over 5f and all earlier this year. Those runs came off 62, 62 & 61. Has since had runs at the likes of Lingfield, Wolves & a couple of turf outings but to no avail. Runs in this off 46 so based on previous course form must have a decent shout here. Hasn't run since August but that isn't a concern as he has won after a 2 month break previously.

Auteuill 12.30
 
Zizaneur. 1pt ew 8/1 Hills
An interesting midweek card in Paris and the selection is the Philip Hobbs trained Zizaneur. Very uninspiring recent figures featuring numerous unseat and PU esp in chases. However a mitigating thought I would throw in is that he's been ridden by his owner Mr David Maxwell. You most definitely can't doubt his love, bravery, enthusiasm and commitment to the NH game however being diplomatic he wouldn't be in my top 20 amateurs over the jumps. And interestingly this time he is ridden by the superb James Reveley (only ride on card) back over hurdles. There's certainly some snatches of back class going back just to last year when he was beaten into 2nd (as 2nd favourite) by Christopher Wood , now rated much higher, and in May last year was deemed good enough to be entered in a 65k+ listed hurdle at this track. If he can run to anywhere near his mark he could make a mockery of his price. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

@harry_rag I think Newcastle points at 39 is low because Bruce is a canny manager and recruited well (from waynecoyne as he’s struggling to get onto the forum).