The Brigadier Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Tuesday's racing is quite moderate to say the least but there are plenty of winners to be found and a winner at Fakenham on a wet Tuesday in November pays the same as a winner at Cheltenham in March! Lingfield fell foul to the elements this afternoon leaving just the jumpers at Fakenham and flat racing on the fibre-sand at Southwell and Newcastle's twilight meeting. Nicky Henderson has a terrific record at Fakenham with an excellent 37% strike rate at the track (66 winners from 177 runners). He runs three there tomorrow with Go Chique the most interesting to me. A Southwell bumper winner in early September she was disappointing on her hurdles debut when pulling too hard eventually finishing 5th. In hindsight that may not have been too poor a run as the winner Perfect Myth is now 19lb higher following a win and two 2nds , the second Aggy With It has won both races since whilst the 3rd Mrs Hyde has also won twice since including beating Verdana Blue at Wetherby. I am told that the horse has schooled well since and she should go well although I do worry the way she pulled throughout last time. Champagne Terri and Timetoroe both have to carry 6lb penalties and the one I want to be with is Alan King's hurdling debutant MIDNIGHT GINGER (1.33 Fakenham) who has an absence to overcome but as a Newbury bumper winner and listed race 4th should be good enough here. Her trainer said in a recent trainer file in the Racing Post that she had been held up having 'thrown a curb' (yes I know I had to google that one! apparently its inflamation of the hock).He also called her very likeable. 1 point win @ 15/8 Bet365 The best bet on the card at Newcastle is Sir Michael Stoute's SAMOOT (4.15) who picked up an injury when running 3rd in a Sandown maiden back in August (2nd won since) and I'm told has done plenty of work since and will be hard to beat although she is likely to be well found in the market. At a better value price TEESCOMPONENTSFLY (3.40 Newcastle) looks decent each way value to turn the tables on favourite Eagles Foot who beat him 1 1/2 lengths over course and distance 35 days ago. Both were having only their 4th ever run and 1st at the trip though watching the race again I think it's fair to say that Eagle Foot had the run of the race that day. Teescomponentsfly will be 3lb better off with top apprentice Ray Dawson taking another 3lb off so effectively 6lb better here. The remainder in the race are all fairly exposed and this may well be fought out by the two 3 year olds and with some forms paying 4 places the value lies with an each way bet on David Barron's Shirocco gelding. 1 point each way @ 7/1 Paddy Power vikki37, The Equaliser, yossa6133 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 A system that is working quite well for me is based on horses younger than 7 that haven't run for 4 weeks or more in a handicap. There is one horse that matches the criteria in the 3.03 at Fakenham, Gold Fields. Currently available at 20/1 it may be worth an each way punt as there are 8 runners in the race. Villa Chris, yossa6133, The Brigadier and 3 others 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 Fingers crossed the dead 8 all run ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alancraik Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Todays selections only one today, scored 5 races but only one qualifier FAKENHAM 14:33 Midnights Gift 9/4 win The Brigadier, MCLARKE, BBBC and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 All prices Bet365: 12.20 Southwell - 1pt e/w Blackcurrent @ 20/1 Poor race and I think at the price it's worth chancing Blackcurrent. Has shown quite consistent form on the all-weather in the past off higher marks and has a further 5lbs taken off his back today. Runs Southwell pretty well in modest affairs and although below par when last seen in July, has a solid record when fresh and the break might have done a bit of good so returning off a featherweight, looks better than a 20/1 shot. 1.03 Fakenham - 2pts win Top Up The Fashion @ 9/2 Ran really well here on seasonal reappearance two starts back and lost ground at a crucial point in a better race at Kempton last time. This smaller field can help, has cheekpieces added today and it's a weaker race to boot. Loves good ground and I think if its jumping holds together can land this contest. 2.20 Southwell - 1pt e/w Paradise on Earth @ 14/1 Showed some decent novice form last year before flopping on soft when last seen but I think we can forgive that and its efforts on the all-weather were promising. Didn't quite get home over 1m2f in a couple of efforts when still running well but there's plenty of speed in the pedigree and it's no great surprise to see a return to shorter for a new yard. Blinkers are on, is fairly handicapped on a couple of runs and if fit enough, could outrun the odds from a positive ride (I hope)> 3.50 Southwell - 0.5pts e/w Jessie Allan @ 80/1 This one is a long shot but there are bits and pieces of form in this one's book and it's plausible that the fibresand could play to her strengths. She'll need to keep tabs on them early here which is a concern but is off a featherweight here and the long straight ought to suit. Southwell is a unique test and on her first start here, I just think she's worth chancing at colossal odds as she has ability to win lowly races when the cards fall right. yossa6133, The Equaliser and The Brigadier 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 12.50 Southwell - George Thomas - 16/1 Been a bit of support around for this one this morning but still 16/1 available with 888Sport at the time of typing. Without stating the obvious, Southwell is a bit of a specialist track and this horse has had 3 visits here with form figures of 233, all over 5f and all earlier this year. Those runs came off 62, 62 & 61. Has since had runs at the likes of Lingfield, Wolves & a couple of turf outings but to no avail. Runs in this off 46 so based on previous course form must have a decent shout here. Hasn't run since August but that isn't a concern as he has won after a 2 month break previously. Zico10 and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, The Brigadier said: Fingers crossed the dead 8 all run Yep, always a risk but I don't hold to the conspiracy theorists who claim there is always a late non runner that reduces the place terms. DanV89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alancraik Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 4 hours ago, alancraik said: Todays selections only one today, scored 5 races but only one qualifier FAKENHAM 14:33 Midnights Gift 9/4 win 1 st vikki37 and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peanut peanut Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Well done Alan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alancraik Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 5 hours ago, MCLARKE said: A system that is working quite well for me is based on horses younger than 7 that haven't run for 4 weeks or more in a handicap. There is one horse that matches the criteria in the 3.03 at Fakenham, Gold Fields. Currently available at 20/1 it may be worth an each way punt as there are 8 runners in the race. Well done that man ???????? what a lovely price as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 5 hours ago, alancraik said: Todays selections only one today, scored 5 races but only one qualifier FAKENHAM 14:33 Midnights Gift 9/4 win Good pick there - won nicely in the end. An Alan King double, a trainer to follow at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 4 hours ago, DanV89 said: 12.50 Southwell - George Thomas - 16/1 Been a bit of support around for this one this morning but still 16/1 available with 888Sport at the time of typing. Without stating the obvious, Southwell is a bit of a specialist track and this horse has had 3 visits here with form figures of 233, all over 5f and all earlier this year. Those runs came off 62, 62 & 61. Has since had runs at the likes of Lingfield, Wolves & a couple of turf outings but to no avail. Runs in this off 46 so based on previous course form must have a decent shout here. Hasn't run since August but that isn't a concern as he has won after a 2 month break previously. Weak ride and was beaten in a photo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 Good pick DanV89 - as you say seen stronger rides ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, The Brigadier said: 7 hours ago, MCLARKE said: A system that is working quite well for me is based on horses younger than 7 that haven't run for 4 weeks or more in a handicap. There is one horse that matches the criteria in the 3.03 at Fakenham, Gold Fields. Currently available at 20/1 it may be worth an each way punt as there are 8 runners in the race. Well done that man ???????? what a lovely price as well The stats never lie. Well they actually do most of the time but it's always nice when the longshots come in, especially when it's such an easy win. peanut peanut, The Equaliser and The Brigadier 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 23 hours ago, The Brigadier said: Champagne Terri and Timetoroe both have to carry 6lb penalties and the one I want to be with is Alan King's hurdling debutant MIDNIGHT GINGER (1.33 Fakenham) who has an absence to overcome but as a Newbury bumper winner and listed race 4th should be good enough here Nice start ! The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 8 hours ago, MCLARKE said: A system that is working quite well for me is based on horses younger than 7 that haven't run for 4 weeks or more in a handicap. There is one horse that matches the criteria in the 3.03 at Fakenham, Gold Fields. Currently available at 20/1 it may be worth an each way punt as there are 8 runners in the race. Excellent tip. Very well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 715 Newcastle phantasmal Betfair sp. Win Down in trip again should do well if not win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: The stats never lie. Well they actually do most of the time but it's always nice when the longshots come in, especially when it's such an easy win. Are you an administrator now M? Well done if you are? In what capacity are you working now if I may ask? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: 715 Newcastle phantasmal Betfair sp. Win Down in trip again should do well if not win. Held up and couldn't get there to unplace. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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