bobix
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Posts posted by bobix
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7 hours ago, liquidglass said:
I just cannot see how you can justify both tips based on the reasoning that you have provided. Firstly this is just the beginning of the season, so to throw tiredness in as a possible factor why two in-form players should both lose is ludicrous. The point of Cecchinato having a title to defend next week is just speculative and empty. Only Cecchinato knows his plans for next week.
Furthermore if you are a student of the Odds Movement Academy you will know that a very swift move of odds resulting in the unjustified favouritism of a player is a case of what is known in betting circles as “Sharp Money” . I will find it somewhat strange for Moutet and Londero to both win following those generic market moves. So confident of both not winning as a double that I recommend a 10/10 likelihood. However, I will separate them by taking Monteiro to beat Moutet in what I expect to be a decisive victory. He was the original favourite. He is also the better and most in form player.
10/10... 0/4 sets xD next time try to be less arrogant, maybe you'll catch one.
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6 hours ago, darko08 said:
Juan Ignacio Londero to beat Marco Cecchinato at 1.66 with bet365
Londero won here in 2019. He’s from Cordoba so the crowd will be with him. Cecchinato comes here after playing the Challenger of Punta del Este where he reached the Final. The Final was yesterday against Thiago Monteiro (6-7, 7-6, 5-7).
Agreed. Also worth mentioning that Cecchinato has a title to defend in Buenos Aires next week, he might/should "take a break" after last week CH tournament.
Odds were almost even, 1.83 on both when opening the markets, but obviously it dropped quickly. Not sure if anybody interested, there is a very useful telegram service (a paid one of course) I know about, it sends you a notification instantly after a new event has been added on Bet365 (we know very well, they are the odds reference for many bookies). It can be customized to notify you only about tennis matches. I don't want to spoiler, because I don't want to be banned from the forum
drop me a PM if interested, I will give you the contact.
- CzechPunter, darko08 and Grass Cash
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22 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Also thinking about Diego stealing a set off Djokovic, the odds are certainly juicy and, even though he doesn't have any big weapons, he'll be there as he was against Rafa in 2018. Hasn't even dropped a set yet, which is sort of incredible given that he doesn't have a serve to fall back on, while Djokovic has. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but yeah, I'm going to go for it at 2.89 with Pinnacle. Diego just sort of has this habit of not falling apart and he can run all day long, while his groundstrokes are as good as they are when it comes to the big guys. Having no serve means that he just can't be among the top guys, but he's not Nishioka-like if you want to make comparisons, he's much hardier and mentally apt. He took a set of Medvedev in the ATP Cup, so I am going to have a sporting play based on the odds alone.
Fully agreed, but I personally will look for a "safer" option here, backing Djokovic to win over 18.5 games. Bet365 has this option at 1.66, but my local bookie offers a juicy 1.75 so I will take it. Even if Djoker closes this match in straight sets, I expect at least one of them to reach 10+ games. GL ?
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6 minutes ago, darko08 said:
I can't imagine why anybody posted the victory of Dellien against Kwon Soon-woo at 9.00. Like 3 weeks ago i posted here the victory of Ivashka against him at almost 3.00. Anybody can explain me why this korean guy that had done nothing remarkable in the ATP is constantly treated by the bookies like a top 10 player..?
IMHO Kwon is one of the most overrated players right now and you can well make advantage from that. It was a joke to give him odds under 1.10 yesterday. Dellien might be a sole claycourt player, barely playing on HC, but he has a good mentality and is fighting for every point. Backing him to win a set at evens was a real gift.
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15 minutes ago, darko08 said:
I am not quite sure about Escobedo, who is nothing more than a challenger level player, albeit with some decent results recently. OK, Chung is coming back from a serious injury, but he already appeared at some challenger tournaments and crushed all his opponents in the qualies, apparently ready to compete at the highest level again. Quality-wise there is no question for me who is the better player, and I think the odds are correctly allocated. Therefore I personally don't see any value in backing any of the players.
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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
I have that match down as almost a coin-flip. Popyrin is better on hard courts, but I'd say that Delbonis is still slightly classier overall and yesterday was fairly pleasant for clay court players. If you can cash things out live, wait for the start and then decide. If Popyrin starts well, he should win easily. Otherwise, you should probably lay things off.
Yeah, I have to agree, and probably this is what I am going to do. I also feel some sort of danger in Delbonis, mainly because of his experience, let's see how it goes.
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Guys, what do you think about the today Popyrin - Delbonis match? I have a 7-fold fun bet alive from yesterday: Booksby to win a set, Dellien to win a set, Djokovic to win 3-0, Pouille to win, Benchetrit to win a set, Pella to win a set, and... Popyrin to win. Total odds is 13.23, so I am considering countering the Australian, albeit I still trust and consider him the right favorite against Delbonis. He is already starting to be a regular at ATP appointments and his progression is being very positive. Apart from being his favorite surface, this will be his sixth consecutive HC tournament, so the adaptation should be maximum. During the AO and Wimbledon he already showed that is not afraid against the already established names in the circuit.
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On 8/12/2019 at 3:55 PM, DrO said:
One early bet for me.
Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to win US Open - Yes - @19 local bookie
The young Canadian is a revelation of the season and a most pleasant surprise. She won Indian Wells this year. She got injured on Roland Garros but she's now back with a Toronto title.
The Grand Slam is a two-week long tournament and anything can happen of course and it's true that Bianca doesn't have much experience at that level, but that didn't stop Osaka from winning the title last year, for example.
No one is playing better on American HC this season than Andreescu and I think the bet is worth a small punt.
GL
Completely agreed, I also really like Bianca at this odds. Of course, it remains to be seen how she will progress during a 2-week tournament, how she will cope with the conditions, but currently I definitely rate her in the top 4 to raise the trophy.
Not really much else for me on the women's side regarding the outrights.
I think Lucas Pouille can have a decent chance to win the 2nd quarter and at odds 21.00 I have no choice but to back him
We saw him being able to raise his level of play on the big occasions, so why not?! I feel FedEx more than vulnerable and even the rest of the players are all but thrustworthy in a grand slam. Guido Pella in the same quarter is also very tempting at 67.00.
The 3rd quarter is also very interesting. Thiem no way, he barely played HC matches recently and was affected by a virus in Cincinnati, he even admitted that he does not expect miracles in this event, and that he does not even consider himself being able to reach the quarterfinals. I see no value in the bookies favorite Tsitsipas, but Bautista-Agut @7.00 could well do it. The Spaniard has the chance to finish in the ATP top 8, so he could qualify for London, this should be another good motivation for him to play a good tournament. I would also give a slight chance to Shapovalov and Rublev.
4th quarter winner: Nadal for me, without a doubt. Even at 1.66 I think it is clear value, there is literally nobody who can possibly bother him over there.
- CzechPunter, Robinnho and DrO
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Hey folks, am I the only one who think Pella can win against the odds today? OK, Goffin has the H2H advantage, but the gaucho aleady show that he can cause him plenty of problems on hard (just remember that US Open match two years ago). The lose to Nishioka in Washington could indicate that Goffin is not in the best shape, and I doubt he went there just to collect the check.
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10 hours ago, bobix said:
Today's potential upset alerts
Kyrgios (vs Nadal): match of the day, without a doubt. Here all will depend on how this incredibly talented controversial a**hole will approach the match. If he can keep his calm and focus, if he does not get carried away, with his huge serve and style of play should be better on this surface. Against top class opponents Nick always raises his level, and - especially against Nadal - has his own reasons to perform well. I could highlight the H2H stats and the fact he already beat Nadal here a few years ago, but with Nick you never know...
Basilashvili (vs Evans): the current form is definitely on the Brit's side, but come on, there is no way Basilashvili is such an underdog, Evans is not that good. Yepp, the Georgian survived a 5 set thriller against Ward (where I backed Ward to win sets...), but that could well give him the necessary belief and mental power to continue his adventure here.
Davis (vs Kerber): here I would take a +5.5 game handicap, for some inexplicable reason I think it won't be an easy match for Kerber.
Parmentier (vs Suarez Navarro): Pauline to win at least a set at evens is not a bad option I think, she could well win the match as well. I am not so convinced with Carla despite her straight sets win in the first round against Stosur.
And you can call me crazy, but Rublev might also have his chance against Querrey, at least for a set...
Ok, I have to admit that Retardishvili was a bad pick, him being simply awful. Kyrgios was not up to the task with too many sloppy errors at crucial points and shame on Parmentier for not being able to close the first set from 5-2, could have ended differently. The only one who delivered was Davis, still more than nothing ?
For tomorrow I really like Azarenka and Fabbiano with Halep might be slightly injured, and Verdasco as well. The Spaniard is lucky to be here in the 3rd round, but he also had problems with his back and was forced to withdraw from the doubles later. I would definitely play Fabbiano with a bookie who settles tennis bets after 1st ball or 1st set played just in case Verdasco retires.
Regarding the rest, I think both Bautista and Goffin have a slight edge, and Opelka might surpise as well because Raonic is far from being 100%.
From the women menu Zhang and Golubic might worth a shot, and Collins can take at least a set against the apparently shaky Martic.
- CzechPunter and aphro
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Today's potential upset alerts
Kyrgios (vs Nadal): match of the day, without a doubt. Here all will depend on how this incredibly talented controversial a**hole will approach the match. If he can keep his calm and focus, if he does not get carried away, with his huge serve and style of play should be better on this surface. Against top class opponents Nick always raises his level, and - especially against Nadal - has his own reasons to perform well. I could highlight the H2H stats and the fact he already beat Nadal here a few years ago, but with Nick you never know...
Basilashvili (vs Evans): the current form is definitely on the Brit's side, but come on, there is no way Basilashvili is such an underdog, Evans is not that good. Yepp, the Georgian survived a 5 set thriller against Ward (where I backed Ward to win sets...), but that could well give him the necessary belief and mental power to continue his adventure here.
Davis (vs Kerber): here I would take a +5.5 game handicap, for some inexplicable reason I think it won't be an easy match for Kerber.
Parmentier (vs Suarez Navarro): Pauline to win at least a set at evens is not a bad option I think, she could well win the match as well. I am not so convinced with Carla despite her straight sets win in the first round against Stosur.
And you can call me crazy, but Rublev might also have his chance against Querrey, at least for a set...
- CzechPunter and kempazzo
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7 hours ago, opole said:
easy pick , both bets cashing in, parlay won. s*** limits and offer or i would have bet much more on that.
Thank you, Legend! ??
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20 hours ago, opole said:
UFC 238
Blagoy Ivanov @2.30 5dimes 4/10
I really like Ivanov as an underdog here. He's allrounder with good grappling & wrestling skills but can also fight on his feet as he's very good boxer aswell. One of the things i like about him is he's improving from fight to fight. I and expect another step-up from him. Tuivasa is one-dimensional brawler who is nice to watch but he's not versatile enough to handle a guy like Ivanov in my opinion. I doubt Tuivasa can knock him out and if it goes to decision i think Ivanov will have the upper hand. Tuivasa also having a questionable gas tank. I think Ivanov should be the favorite. So we have good value on him.
Thank you, sir! Another great call! ? ? ?
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11 hours ago, opole said:
there is no topic for this week non french open bets so i put it into that one as it's a qualification match of next weeks tournaments
S'hertogenbosch WTA qualif
Arianne Hartono @8.10 5dimes 4/10
Hartono decent prospect i think, she played college tennis in the US and won the NCAA singles championship in 2018 for Ole Miss. She also graduated in 2018 so now she will turn pro and she looks promosing.
Another angle is that her opponent Bonaventure played on claycourt on Thursday in Croatia. She finished her match on Thursday 4pm local time so i checked some sites and i think she took the flight from Split to AMsterdam yesterday which made her arrive in Rosmalen in the evening, she probably didn't even have the chance to hit on grass for a training session here. I wouldn't be surprised if she lacks timing and movement after coming from claycourt. Bonaventure is very solid but we all know switching to grass is difficult. I also expect very tough conditions if you're not adapted to grass as it'll be slippery, very wet weather in the Netherlands according to the reports altough it should not rain at all.
Great call, anyways! I took the set handicap, but I am really sorry for you, this pick really deserved to be a winner...
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Estoril doubles
G. Granollers/M. Lopez @1.581 Pinnacle 10/10
Both Andreozzi and Dellien will play qualifying in Madrid on Saturday. It's an 1000 Masters event in Madrid so i doubt they gonna prioritise a doubles match here. Furthermore, Granollers/Lopez looking like a decent team to compete anyway.
Nice one! Something similar story was with Garín/Londero where Londero "had to leave", while Garin preparing against Zverev. Odds were around 1.30, but I took Molchanov/Zelenay for a 2-0 win for 1.85. 6-3 6-4
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I'm laying once more Kubot/Melo, this time against Mektic/Zeballos at 2.20 with Betfair. The latter eliminated reputable doubles this week, so should have a good chance against the 6th seeded team who managed to survive all the decisive Russian roulettes so far.
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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Not that I have any bets, but I'd like to mention that Nadal is carrying an injury and it looked like he wouldn't win the decider yesterday.
Yepp, and there is a big possibility for a walkover today.
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I've backed Djokovic and Fognini to beat Kubot/Melo at these odds. The veteran doubles specialists looked too shaky this week, for me, this is a much closer matchup than the odds suggest, so I'm going for value here.
- Grass Cash and CzechPunter
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I know it is easy to talk after a match was already played... For the moment, Hurkacz doesn't possess the weapons to beat Federer, and he must keep his first serve percentage quite high to have a chance. Well, that did not materialize today, the only slight opportunities arose when Roger kind of fell asleep for half minutes. Despite the fact 110 looks a bit far away, after reaching the 100 trophy milestone, the GOAT will try to make the most of every chance if he reaches the later stages of a tournament, so I would rather back than lay him this weekend. Just my two cents.
- Torque and Grass Cash
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4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
If Jelena Ostapenko gets her winner count going she's hard to stop. When she's in the zone I mean it's very difficult to beat her and I think she's in that zone right now.
I agree with this, and for some reason, I was already thinking about backing her in the first round, skipped though. Anyways, would like to see her putting at least two wins in a row to finally believe she is back in the zone
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In the end, I skipped backing Mayer for a set against Monfils, but Ramos-Vinolas and Bonaventure both delivered, so it's all good.
Back Kyle Edmund + Stan Wawrinka to beat N Jarry, M Fucsovics at evens with Expekt
Cannot really see Jarry troubling Edmund here, beating Tiafoe nowadays doesn't look like a big achievement (at least for me). Edmund should be fired up after his last week performances and I expect him to go for even more here. Fucsovics parted ways with his coach a few days ago, but apart from that, I would have still expected Wawrinka to stop his recent good run.
I am also thinking about going another round with Johnson (vs Shapovalov), Haase beating Rublev, and Muguruza to take a set against Serena.
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1 hour ago, money44 said:
@bobix Mayer has good results in this tournament.. the conditions suit him well. This is my best pick for tomorrow
I was also looking at Mayer for my usual set handicap, but I'm not completely sure about it. At the moment a much more favored pick for myself is Ramos-Vinolas.
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Let me give you my two cents on betting the straight set wins. As you might have noticed, I mostly play underdogs to win a set, but sometimes I also go for the 2-0. It seems to be straightforward to play the -1.5 sets handicap, or 2-0 correct score, but you should take the time and check the odds for the "Under 2.5 sets" market as well. Not so often, but sometimes the odds are very much the same, or at least there is not such a big gap between them. Therefore in case of a complete burnout you are also covered by the underdog winning in straight sets. No offense, just advice!
Australian Open 2021
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by bobix
That was a stellar pick, thanks a lot! For some reason I was not looking at these game hc lines, but at this odds it was pure value. Even after the second set Norrie grinded and fought hard to make our bets green. Now I am wondering where the Nadal - Fognini odds will be. I mostly avoid backing or laying the Italian, but against Nadal he always finds perfect motivation and we already seen in the past that he is able to cause Rafa plenty of problems.