bobix
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Posts posted by bobix
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Back Udinese to score against Juventus at 1.83 with Bet365
Juventus will more than probably play a completely revamped team, with total focus on next week CL match against atletico woodcutters madrid. The probable lineup looks like this: Szczesny; Caceres, Barzagli, Rugani, Spinazzola; Emre Can, Bentancur, Matuidi; Bernardeschi, Kean, Dybala. 37 years old Barzagli just came back from a long injury, Caceres and Spinazzola barely played so far, Rugani is probably the most error-prone CB Juve had for some years now. There is not much chemistry in this defensive line. In the absence of the suspended Pjanic, there won't be much creativity in midfield, if the guests put enough pressure on them, they can lose plenty of balls (especially Bentancur) on their own half of the pitch. You can check how much did Juve struggle when they missed the Bosnian on the midfield this season. Udinese not yet 100% saved from relegation, albeit in a good position, there is no pressure on them and they know this Juve can be hurt, especially with players like De Paul in front. Juve 16 points clear on the top of the table, the championship is all but won already... You can, of course, wait for the official lineup, but there is plenty of value in this pick.
- StevieDay1983 and vicsuna
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Sorry folks, I don't really have the time now to add much reasoning to my picks
Looks like they are already plenty of surprising results in Indian Wells and I can smell a fishy day today as well. Maybe nothing indicates the below upsets, and I might lose easily all of them, but who expected Humbert to lose 2-0 against Marterer, etc... I will give them a try
Back Donald Young (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.79 with MarathonBet
Back Steve Johnson to beat Taylor Fritz at evens with Expekt
Back Bernarda Pera (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Qiang Wang at 2.04 with Pinnacle
Back Stefanie Voegele (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Sloane Stephens at 2.31 with SBOBET
Back Ysaline Bonaventure (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Donna Vekic at 1.99 with Marathonbet
- hristofor and CzechPunter
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32 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
I was waiting for the +4.5 line and it never came, so I'll be steering clear of Roger today. Coric might very well win, but I'd like to get at least 3.50 for the outright.
ML odds opened at 4.10 on asian bookmakers, but since it dropped quickly there was no change to get nice game handicap lines later
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Today I went relatively big on Fucsovics to cover the game handicap, and tomorrow will more than probably do the same on Coric. He will be a much difficult opponent for Roger than Basilashvili would have been mainly because of his style of play. I would like to see the game handicap lines first, but the set handicap is also a very good option. I admit that Coric is not playing his very best tennis at the moment, and dropped a set during all his matches so far in Dubai, but I barely expect signs of fatigue on him (at least much less than on Roger). I don't really like how the GOAT moves around the court this week, and I agree with all of you who lay him during these days. They played three times last year, Coric won twice and lost one in the decisive set.
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5 hours ago, Crimson_Silhouette said:
Hurkacz to win a set against Tsitsipas at 2.25 with Bet365.
I have to admit that I am not entirely confident about this bet. Hurkacz didn't have an answer to Tsitsipas's game in Marseille last week. I watched Hurkacz beat Nishikori and it was more of Nishikori mugging it around than Hurkacz actually earning the win, but I hope this win has given the Pole, the confidence to play well in the upcoming rounds. Tsitsipas has looked alright so far, I can see a bit of fatigue creeping in and this should give Hurkacz an opening to win a set.
Let me tell you... I was debating between the set and game handicap here and decided to take the +4 games on Hurkacz... I was more confident he'll be able to cover that instead of winning a set. It was a small staked fun bet, but still very annoying to lose it like this... anyway, congrats on your pick and winnings!
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2 hours ago, BuffChestmen said:
Jarry is clay court player and ADM hasn't done much on clay. I don't think ADM likes the slow courts.
1Maybe the courts in Acapulco are not that fast, but they are definitely not clay
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Back Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Jaume Munar at 2.40 with Expekt
As expected the clay court specialist Spanish guy moved to South America after the AO, rather than "wasting" his time on indoor tournaments. His results were quite good by reaching the quarter-final both in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. During this period he played 5 three-setters, so I would expect him to show signs of tiredness once again in the QF. Moreover, in the form of Auger Aliassime, he will face a difficult opponent. After easily eliminating Fognini in the first round, the young Canadian prodigy took revenge on Garin yesterday, who defeated him in Buenos Aires a week ago. Albeit losing to Munar twice last season (both time on clay), I really fancy his chances in this matchup and I consider the odds favorable as well.
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2 hours ago, four-leaf said:
Pauline Parmentier to beat Ekaterina Alexandrova at 3.30 with Unibet
Upsets are bound to happen in Budapest and it's just a question of which match will be an upset and I pick this one because Pauline is as experienced as you can get. She can probably win important rallies in this match because she knows how to deal with being the underdog as she often is just that but I think she deserves more credit for playing the way she plays. She can be very difficult to deal with.
I was also looking at this matchup and I like your pick. Since the odds are so high, I am happy to take my usual set handicap, trying to remain on the "safe"
side.
Back Pauline Parmentier (+1.5 set handicap) to beat Ekaterina Alexandrova at 1.91 with BoyleSports
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Back Zhe Li (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Dudi Sela at 1.86 with MarathonBet
The jew is the bookies favorite and that should be all right. This is his second week in Bangkok, where he played and lost a final 4 days ago against Laaksonen. In this tournament, he went through the first two rounds relatively easy, hence all looking good so far. However, I smell a possible upset here, because his upcoming opponent is also showing good form and often it is not that easy to know what to expect from a match on challenger level. Li might produce a surprise and I like the odds on the Chinese to take at least a set.
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Back Alison Riske (+4.5 games) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.97 with Unibet
I backed Riske against Goerges in the first round and will continue to ride the wave now. Initially, was going to send out this pick with the +5 handicap line, but odds dropped from 1.74 so I'm moving to +4.5 which could be covered as well if she continues her solid play. Pliskova admitted a few days ago that she was not feeling so well due to being sick. Not sure if already recovered, but she had a difficult match yesterday against Cibulkova so we could have a good chance here.
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Back Peter Gojowczyk to beat Gilles Simon at 2.62 with Bet365
I've just noticed that Gojowczyk played final last year at Delray Beach, however this time he opted to participate in Marseille. Not sure what is behind his decision, but the points he is going to lose needs to be earned elsewhere, more than probably right over here.
I cannot repeat enough how dumb I was when laying the German in the first round, moreover calling him an average player, which is something even I don't really think... Anyway, I also make mistakes and harsh statements. This time I am going to back him against Simon, who did not survive the 2nd round here last year. Nobody is getting younger (if so, then please share the recipe with me) and the Frenchman can no longer play his typical ping-pong tennis at the level he did before. His performances so far in 2019 ar far from convincing for me. These two guys met a single time before, 2 years ago in Metz (indoor hard), where the German won in straight sets.
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15 minutes ago, money44 said:
Can someone list all their best underdog chances tomorrow ? just let them flow .. it's a brainstorm , nothing official I'm asking unless u want to ?
These are the ones I noted down for myself are: Hsieh, Riske, Gojowczyk. Also like Brady, but she will start very soon, maybe a live bet for me. BUT this does not mean I will bet on any of them. I already wrote about Lorenzi and Albot.
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1 minute ago, money44 said:
I don't think i can do it man .. i just lost a really bad in play on chardy .. i might take a look in play at the match ,
@bobix. I don't like those last two plays u posted .. Please be very careful on them
I do see value in both picks and then will be what will be
GL! -
I've changed my mind and won't back Evans against Tiafoe, who is defending champion in Delray Beach. Of course, this does not mean he will win this match but should have plenty of motivation to defend his hard-earned points from last year.
Back Radu Albot (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Nick "as*hole" Kyrgios at 1.81 with MarathonBet
Instead, I will pick this Moldavian guy who is apparently playing some nice tennis nowadays and managed to beat Karlovic twice recently. In my opinion, Kyrgios is one, if not the biggest wasted talent in the whole ATP circuit, he often gives sh*t about playing. He really possesses everything to be a top top player, but his intolerable, unprofessional behavior will never let him so. You never know what to expect from him, and taking into account Albot's good form, I think there is value to back the latter for at least a set.
Back Paolo Lorenzi to beat Steve Johnson at 2.45 with Expekt
I was really thinking about backing Jung for a set today, but thanks God I skipped that match in the end. Johnson was/is (?) in really bad shape, but every negative run comes to end, and I had a feeling he might eventually win a match, maybe even in straight sets, and that's exactly what happened. Will he be able to build on this and start a streak? Well, for the moment I don't think so. Lorenzi, who is really not a hard court specialist is playing surprisingly well, beating reputable players on this surface. I'll be honest, I was not able to watch any of his matches recently, but somewhere I read a comment about him looking and moving around the court very motivated and determined, like somebody who is really fighting for something very important. Jung had his chances today against the American, did not take them, thus ended up losing in straight sets. Lorenzi is a different level compared to the guy from Taipei, I see him as favorite in this matchup.
- darko08, KennyDelight, hristofor and 1 other
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2 minutes ago, money44 said:
good job btw @ bobix .. i must have missed u taking Baena also .. super close at the end.. what do u think of baena - dellien next round ?
Thank you @money44! Carballes should have finished this match in two sets but was not able to close it at 5-3. At least luck was on our side and he delivered in the end. Tough call his next match, I would rather skip that. I just started looking at the tomorrow card, at first glance I like Evans and Lorenzi, also Albot for set handicap. This is from Delray Beach, still checking the rest.
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On 2019. 02. 17. at 11:27 PM, bobix said:
Pfff... it is really obvious I did not visit this forum for a long time, I forgot that each week has a new topic
I am copying over my picks from the other topic.
Back Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.20 with Expekt
Jarry is not convincing at all nowadays. He might have won two matches in the Davis Cup, but none of them was easy despite playing against all but reputable clay court opponents. Since then he lost two first-round matches, and I think tomorrow he'll make it three in a row. Carballes, on the other hand, seems to be playing quite OK, recently lost only to Cecchinato in a tight encounter, who ended up winning the tournament in Buenos Aires. I think the odds should be reversed here, so I am more than happy to back the Spanish guy.
Back Alison Riske (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Julia Goerges at 1.93 with Pinnacle
Goerges is a clear favorite here, agreed. These two ladies met this week in Doha, where Julia won in 3 sets. There is a general rule in tennis (applicable to all sports though, I guess), this is something a very good friend of mine told me who was a professional player. It is anything but easy to beat somebody twice who you met recently. This is why I did not agree with many of you when backing Medvedev against Monfils (albeit back then I did not state my opinion here). Riske is very rhapsodic, this match can easily end in two sets, but I hope she will show her better face and fight well.
Other than these I am also looking at Suarez Navarro and Karlovic, maybe I'll make a parlay of 3 set handicaps adding also Carballes.
Back Damir Dzumhur to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.80 with Pinnacle
This match will be played on Tuesday, not tomorrow. Bet365 opened the odds at 1.66 the rest of the bookies at around 1.80 but already started to drop. Dzumhur's season start was awful, but after the Davis Cup he won two matches against good/in-form players like Tsitsipas and Kukushkin, being demolished later by tournament winner Monfils. But this should be enough for him to gather some pace and he will next have a favorable opponent in the form of Gojowczyk. Despite the fact of having some good (but short) periods from time to time, I always rated the German an average player, nothing special. Dzumhur also lead the H2H 2-0, and all of those were indoor hard matches.
Carballes and Riske both won, that's great! On the other hand, if there was a pick I really really deserved to lose is the one with Dzumhur. My friend was totally right, I should show more respect toward players, especially when they sit on the 60th position in the ATP rankings. Shame on me! -
Back Juan Ignacio Londero (-1.5 sets handicap) to beat Elias Ymer at 2.10 with Pinnacle
I have to agree with everyone who already backed Londero today. For some reason, I've completely missed this match until now, and odds already dropped on ML, but I am happy to take the set handicap instead. All I want to add to the previous analyses is the fact Ymer might be also carrying a shoulder injury. The two players' current form in completely opposite. Let's grab this, guys
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1 hour ago, shambata said:
really? atp 60 nothing special. incredible tennis player imo and great fighter as well. not to mention the 1,8m eur he put together thru his short career.... tru that I would lay off this match, or maybe lean dzumhur as well....
GL
6You're right my master! I was too harsh with my thoughtless words, and I should have said that Dzumhur's form is rising, while Gojowczyk is still calibrating himself instead. Anyway, I will stick with my pick of course. I would love to be a top200 player, but don't even play this sport... so yeah, ATP 60 is a decent place.
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33 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
@money44 That said, Schwartzman was arguably even more disappointing, the match against Thiem was a total mugfest in which neither player was good and he completely imploded in the finals, drawing absolutely nothing from the home conditions. A strange performance, really, he might be carrying an injury or something.
1Let's not forget, that he also lost the doubles final (along Thiem) later that day VERY VERY easy (6-1 6-1)
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Pfff... it is really obvious I did not visit this forum for a long time, I forgot that each week has a new topic
I am copying over my picks from the other topic.
Back Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.20 with Expekt
Jarry is not convincing at all nowadays. He might have won two matches in the Davis Cup, but none of them was easy despite playing against all but reputable clay court opponents. Since then he lost two first-round matches, and I think tomorrow he'll make it three in a row. Carballes, on the other hand, seems to be playing quite OK, recently lost only to Cecchinato in a tight encounter, who ended up winning the tournament in Buenos Aires. I think the odds should be reversed here, so I am more than happy to back the Spanish guy.
Back Alison Riske (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Julia Goerges at 1.93 with Pinnacle
Goerges is a clear favorite here, agreed. These two ladies met this week in Doha, where Julia won in 3 sets. There is a general rule in tennis (applicable to all sports though, I guess), this is something a very good friend of mine told me who was a professional player. It is anything but easy to beat somebody twice who you met recently. This is why I did not agree with many of you when backing Medvedev against Monfils (albeit back then I did not state my opinion here). Riske is very rhapsodic, this match can easily end in two sets, but I hope she will show her better face and fight well.
Other than these I am also looking at Suarez Navarro and Karlovic, maybe I'll make a parlay of 3 set handicaps adding also Carballes.
Back Damir Dzumhur to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.80 with Pinnacle
This match will be played on Tuesday, not tomorrow. Bet365 opened the odds at 1.66 the rest of the bookies at around 1.80 but already started to drop. Dzumhur's season start was awful, but after the Davis Cup he won two matches against good/in-form players like Tsitsipas and Kukushkin, being demolished later by tournament winner Monfils. But this should be enough for him to gather some pace and he will next have a favorable opponent in the form of Gojowczyk. Despite the fact of having some good (but short) periods from time to time, I always rated the German an average player, nothing special. Dzumhur also lead the H2H 2-0, and all of those were indoor hard matches.
- four-leaf and CzechPunter
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Back Damir Dzumhur to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.80 with Pinnacle
This match will be played on Tuesday, not tomorrow. Bet365 opened the odds at 1.66 the rest of the bookies at around 1.80 but already started to drop. Dzumhur's season start was awful, but after the Davis Cup he won two matches against good/in-form players like Tsitsipas and Kukushkin, being demolished later by tournament winner Monfils. But this should be enough for him to gather some pace and he will next have a favorable opponent in the form of Gojowczyk. Despite the fact of having some good (but short) periods from time to time, I always rated the German an average player, nothing special. Dzumhur also lead the H2H 2-0, and all of those were indoor hard matches.
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Gálfi canceled out the loss on Muller, so at least I broke even with these two picks. Let's see what we have for tomorrow...
Back Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.20 with Expekt
Jarry is not convincing at all nowadays. He might have won two matches in the Davis Cup, but none of them was easy despite playing against all but reputable clay court opponents. Since then he lost two first-round matches, and I think tomorrow he'll make it three in a row. Carballes, on the other hand, seems to be playing quite OK, recently lost only to Cecchinato in a tight encounter, who ended up winning the tournament in Buenos Aires. I think the odds should be reversed here, so I am more than happy to back the Spanish guy.
Back Alison Riske (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Julia Goerges at 1.93 with Pinnacle
Goerges is a clear favorite here, agreed. These two ladies met this week in Doha, where Julia won in 3 sets. There is a general rule in tennis (applicable to all sports though, I guess), this is something a very good friend of mine told me who was a professional player. It is anything but easy to beat somebody twice who you met recently. This is why I did not agree with many of you when backing Medvedev against Monfils (albeit back then I did not state my opinion here). Riske is very rhapsodic, this match can easily end in two sets, but I hope she will show her better face and fight well.
Other than these I am also looking at Suarez Navarro and Karlovic, maybe I'll make a parlay of 3 set handicaps adding also Carballes.
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3 hours ago, four-leaf said:
I think Magda Frech is too lightweight to beat Dasha Kasatkina and not an underdog worth a shot.
If Kasatkina will play at least OK, this should be a straightforward win for her.
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Back Alexandre Muller (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Simone Bolelli at 1.77 with MarathonBet
Going for my usual set handicap where I see value. It's OK that the Italian is the favorite in this matchup, but I don't really think if he will be able to close this in two sets. Muller hopefully put his past injuries behind himself, and the home turf will boost his morale even more to play a good match.
Back Dalma Gálfi (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Natalia Viklyantseva at 2.03 with MarathonBet
I did not wake up early enough, therefore missed playing Makarova for a set...
I will pick Gálfi instead, and I know that I'm going well against the odds here... The Russian lady played some excellent tennis in the FED Cup lately, and she is the right favorite, but so did Gálfi, which might be a bit unexpected from her taking into account the average year 2018 she had. But she apparently started 2019 well, and I'm pretty sure she will give more than 100% in front of the home crowd.
GL
Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Well, Pera was serving for the first set at 5-4, then failed to close the tiebreak being 5-2 in front. Unlucky! Johnson and Voegele delivered very easy, but Young was definitely a completely wrong pick.