ElPrincipito007

Danielle Collins to beat Karolina Pliskova at 2.62 with bet365
I like Collins for this match. She loves Australia conditions, here is where she has displayed her best tennis ever. In 2019 she reached the SF of the AO, beating Goerges, Vickery, Caroline García, Kerber and Pavlyuchenkova. She finally lost against Kvitova. The last year she lost in the 2nd round (vs Putintseva) but she destroyed Svitolina (6-1, 6-1) and Putintseva (6-1, 6-0) in Brisbane, and Sasnovich (6-3, 6-2), Kenin (6-3, 6-1) and Bencic (6-3, 6-1) in Adelaide, losing the SF in a 3 set match against Barty, decided by a close TB. In her 2 first matches here she has won against Bonaventure (6-3, 6-3) and Stojanovic (6-2, 6-1). As I said before, here is where Collins' game suits more and I can't imagine Pliskova winning this easily. The czech player has won against Cocciaretto in her 1st match here (6-3, 6-2). She had un unexpected 2nd round loss against Gasanova in Abu Dhabi. She won in Brisbane the last year and she only won a couple of matches in the AO (vs Siegemund and Mladenovic) before losing against Pavlyuchenkova in 2 sets. She's the favorite player but I think she's not at her best and I see clear value on Collins at these odds.
@ElPrincipito007 There was no need to worry, mate. Muguruza looks great and Van Uytvanck never did well here... 
I have not watched Sabalenka. It really pisses me off when these kind of long term bets are lost just in the first match... IMO her chances for the AO have decreased a lot... we'll see..

I opt for Muguruza AH -1.5 sets @1,9 (Betfirst)
Just a bit worried as Van Uytvanck did already play a match here.

Not much time so just a few words about my bets, all with 365. I'm backing underdogs across the board, although so far it looks as though plenty of favourites have been winning. Despite that, with so much uncertainty right now I'd rather take my chances with players that aren't expected to win.
First off, I'm backing Berrettini to beat Thiem. He's beaten the Austrian on hard before, and if he can get his serve going he could be hard to break which will improve his chances. Next I'm tailing @CzechPunter and backing Sweeny to beat Ji Sung Nam - I agree it looks a coin-flip. Then I'm going to swerve the sensible option of Boulter on a plus against Gauff, and back the Brit to get the win. Gauff was very inconsistent against Teichmann - might even have lost - whereas Boulter got a solid win. I'm also taking a chance on Cornet against Osaka, as Cornet is the type of player who can step up and win against a top player. I also like the look of Sevastova against Pavlyuchenkova - sorry @darko08but at least one of us is guaranteed to win. Sevastova has the craft and guile to negate the power of Pavlyuchenkova, plus Pav laboured a little bit in the last round after a strong start. Finally, and this really is taking a punt, I'm going to have a small stake on Bogdan to beat Barty. Barty has been out of action for so long - not including the recent exo - that I couldn't back her in this match. Bogdan has had some success in Australia in the past and whilst I fully expect Barty to win, at the price I have to side with Bogdan.
10pts Berrettini to beat Thiem @ 3.25
15pts Sweeny to beat Ji Sung Nam @ 2.25
20pts Boulter to beat Gauff @ 6.50
5pts Cornet to beat Osaka @ 5.50
20pts Sevastova to beat Pavlyuchenkova @ 3.50
5pts Bogdan to beat Barty @ 9.00

Dane Sweeney to beat Ji Sung Nam at 2.30 with William Hill
Sweeney is a glass cannon that can lose to anyone, but he tends to perform well on home ground and he looked surprisingly good in the AO qualifiers, so I think that there's some value in these odds. I'd have it 50/50 and it will be down to Sweeney, as Nam is an average player. Last year, Sweeney beat the likes of J-P Smith and Santillan, while he had two good performances against Copil and Stakhovsky in 2021 already. Slight value, but worth taking imo, let's hope it won't end like Li Tu.
Katie Boulter (+6) to beat Cori Gauff at 1.78 with Pinnacle
Gauff had a very long and tiring match against Teichmann yesterday, two TBs and she won't have that much time to recover. She's obviously the superior player of the two, but Boulter is capable of playing well and had an easy match yesterday, winning quickly as an underdog. She can play decent tennis and even troubled Svitolina in Australia last year if I remember correctly. If Gauff continues producing as many cheap mistakes as she did yesterday, Boulter will have every chance imo. The games handicap looks like the safest bet.

Garbiñe Muguruza (-4,5 Games) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.83 with bet365
Last one. Muguruza's 2020 was impressive. She ended with a 23-7 record, including a Final in the AO, beating Svitolina, Bertens Pavlyuchenkova and Halep, all of them in straight sets. She started well this year, destroying Mladenovic (6-2, 6-4) and Sasnovich (6-1, 6-4), and lost in the third round against one of the most in form players righ now, Sakkari (5-7, 4-6). IMO the return of Conchita and her new mentality makes her a clear candidate to win everything here. Van Uytvanck is not at her best. She ended 2020 with a negative record (9-12). She has never achieved good results in Australia. In 2020, she was destroyed by Ferro (2-6, 1-6) in the AO, in the 1st round. She never has won a match in the AO or even a set (7 consecutive defeats by 2-0) and she has some big loses as a double 6-0 (vs Azarenka). As I said, looks like she never liked Australia conditions... I think this is one of those matches where the spaniard destroys her opponent, letting her with only 1-5 games won.

Matches galore tomorrow. I think Michael White did enough for me to back him to beat Ferg O'Brien. We've not seen Ferg for a while and despite White breaking down alot in his breaks at the WST event, he did look free-flowing and I think he should win that meeting. In the evening matches, I can't ignore how awful Dott was at The WST event. I've never seen him that bad. That could be because he just wanted to get it out the way and get into a more serious event, such as this one. However, if hat's the case, you would atleast expect him to score decently now and then. His highest break in 7 matches, was 52 and he lost all 7. It's just weird. I have to lay him.
5.5pts M.White to beat F.O'Brien 8/11 bet365
3pts J.Brown to beat G.Dott 2/1 bet365

Higgins wins Masters @2,05 (Unibet)
I don't think I have to add much. If he plays like he did against Ronnie, I don't think any player left will stop him.

Valeria Savinykh (+5.5 Games) to beat Ysaline Bonaventure at 1.91 with William Hill
The only match from the qualies that I have watched is the Bonaventure-Lottner match. I think I have never watched Savinykh (and if I did, i don't remember) but I'm impressed with her numbers here. She has won against Vikhlyantseva (6-2, 6-4) at 5.5 and Gatto-Monticone (6-4, 7-6) at 3.0. Taking a look at her record career it's clear that she's a hard court player (179-117). Obviously, most of these matches have been against low ranked players but when she has played against top 100 players, she has done well. Bonaventure has won against Kostic (6-3, 6-3) and Lottner (6-1, 6-3). As I said, I have watched that match and Lottner has played with back problems (she was unable to run). 
I think the odds are wrong and I think she even can win the whole match. The single victory is paid at 5.00 in some bookies but I will go with the Games handicap.

De Minaur @1,66 (betfirst)
I really like the odds here. Goffin, after a disastrous 2020, won 3 matches here, but his opponents weren't as good as De Minaur is. De Minaur really had a good end of the season and is doing well here. I think this odd is quite generous, given the form De Minaur is in. Even against an in form Goffin, I like the chances of De Minaur.

De Minaur @1,66 (betfirst)
I really like the odds here. Goffin, after a disastrous 2020, won 3 matches here, but his opponents weren't as good as De Minaur is. De Minaur really had a good end of the season and is doing well here. I think this odd is quite generous, given the form De Minaur is in. Even against an in form Goffin, I like the chances of De Minaur.

De Minaur @1,66 (betfirst)
I really like the odds here. Goffin, after a disastrous 2020, won 3 matches here, but his opponents weren't as good as De Minaur is. De Minaur really had a good end of the season and is doing well here. I think this odd is quite generous, given the form De Minaur is in. Even against an in form Goffin, I like the chances of De Minaur.

I'd like to wish all tennis fans Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Celebrate well, guys, and thanks for participating in the forums this year!

Yes he'll probably struggle with the match table(Vafaei), life must be tough in Iran - can't believe he's only 26 and Vahedi is 31, they both look like they're in their 40's?

Another full day of Darts today. Here is the afternoon session.
M. Razma Vs T. Suzuki
M. De Decker Vs E. Foulkes
R. Murray Vs L. Ilagan
D. Gurney Vs W. O'Connor
I'm taking just the one for the afternoon matches and a four-fold once again. The single bet I like is Ryan Murray to beat Ilagan. We've seen Ilagan many times at the Worlds and he's always had an impact with the crowds, who seem to love him here. With no crowds though and the lack of practise, with Covid, I can see Murray taking this one. Murray is a good up and coming player and aslong as his doubling stands up then his scoring should do him well here.
5pts R. Murray to beat L. Ilagan 4/5 betfair
------------------------------------------------------------
2pts 4-fold - Razma / De Decker / Murray / Gurney 5/1 paddypower
1pt double - Razma & De Decker to both win 3-0 7/1 paddypower
1pt double - De Decker & Murray to both win / most 180s / highest checkout 12/1 paddypower

Tonight's fixtures :
B.Hawkins Vs R.Walden
N.Robertson Vs R.Milkins
J.Perry Vs A.McGill
J.Higgins Vs X.Guodong
Hawkins against Walden is a real 50/50 for me. Walden is playing so well right now (hence the outright pick) but Hawkins tends to play really well until the business end of a tournament. The winner could go deep. I like the overs on the frames but I want to see how both perform. I think Milkins could keep it close against Robbo. I fancy McGill to beat Perry and Higgins should see off Guodong really. I'll take PPs boosted 4 fold as I like everybody to win barring the 50/50 with Hawkins and Walden 
5.5pts A.McGill to beat J.Perry 10/11 paddypower
2pts Hawkins, Robertson, McGill & Higgins 11/2 paddypower
1pt - Milkins, Walden and Higgins 14/1 paddypower

Starts in a matter of hours really if you think about it  
I'm thinking Trump and Robertson will both withdraw. I'm only guessing but even if they don't it's not going to be a priority event for them now.
alot of selections but 14pts staked and I think if my hunch does come true it will be worth having one of these big prices on board
2pts E/W K.Wilson to win Scottish Open 11/1 paddypower
1pt E/W J.Higgins to win Scottish Open 18/1 betvictor
1pt E/W G.Dott to win Scottish Open 50/1 betvictor
-------------------------------------------------------------------
0.5pts E/W Yuelong to win Scottish Open 70/1 paddypower
0.5pts E/W A.McGill to win Scottish Open 70/1 paddypower 
0.5pts E/W M.Gould to win Scottish Open 125/1 paddypower
0.5pts E/W L.Brecel to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W S.Donaldson to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W K.Maflin to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
 

The main bet for me tonight is Bingham to beat Dott. Dott actually has a very good record against Bingham (won 3 of the last 4) but I'm not convinced that Dott is a form horse right now and I just think he has had a nice draw or players that haven't stepped it up when needed. I wouldn't say Bingham is on fire by any means but I think the price of 8/11 is nice enough for what I see as a 75/25 match.
5.5pts S.Bingham to beat G.Dott 8/11 betfred
1pt accy - J.Higgins (-2.5 frames) / Li Hang (+3.5 frames) / Bingham to beat D.Dott / A.McGill -2.5 frames 6/1 paddypower
0.5pts accy - Milkins / Bingham / Li Hang 22/1 paddypower

Wattimena wins but let down by Pipe and Heta. Wade was pretty impressive to be fair to Heta. I'm going with the better game up on stage today mixed with the better form. I think Chisnall should see off Cross. Cross actually played better than i expected against Pipe but I think the lack of scoring from Pipe made him more comfortable. Chisnalls scoring should put that pressure on. Chisnall also has an awesome record against Cross.
Van Den Bergh had the performance of the round yesterday and hit the record for highest average in this event. Part of that is why I'm going for Aspinall here. You rarely see somebody do that twice. Now it's in his head. Finally, despite having De Sousa on the outright pick, I think Smith beats him today. Smith will be playing without any pressure really after an easy win already. De Sousa also won ofcourse and if De Sousa lost then I wouldn't be betting this. Smith has already beaten De Sousa much to my angst whenI was on De Sousa at the Winter Series. De Sousa knows if he loses here then all he needs to likely do is beat Ashton and 2 wins from 3 probably sees you through in a group.
There's a few trappy looking matches today and a few outsiders now that have been priced up purely based on form and I think it's worth a point on these 3 in my outsider accy.

5pts D.Chisnall to beat R.Cross 4/5 betfair 
5pts N.Aspinall to beat Van Den Bergh 4/5 paddypower
5pts M.Smith to beat J.De Sousa 4/5 bet365
---------------------------------------------
1pt outsider accy - Wattimena  / Van Duijvenbode & Durrant 15.5/1 bet365 

The accy let down by Joe O'Connor (3-0 up, loses 4-3. Standard!) small profit on the day.
There wasn't much I liked this morning other than perhaps Jiahui to beat Xintong. Ofcourse that's going to win now i've left it alone. Looking at the other matches Hallworth looks good outsider value against Wenbo but Wenbos form is actually pretty good and that puts me off. I like Mark Joyce to beat Dale. Dale is actually playing alright to be fair but it's hard to know how good that form is when Jones was so utterly terrible. Jones didn't manage one break over 50. Joyce comes into this with better form than that having beaten Vahedi with a century and three 50+ breaks and Un-Nooh at the German Masters.
5.5pts M.Joyce to beat D.Dale 10/11 betvictor 
5.5pts Sijun to beat Honghao 8/11 willhill
3pts J.Brown to beat S.Akani evens bet365
2pts B.Hancorn to beat A.Carter 4/1 paddypower
-------------------------------------------------------------
1pt accy - Jianbo / Vafaei / J.Brown / Ajaib / Sijun 14/1 bet365
 

2.5pts J O'Connor to beat M.Selt 11/10 bet365
2.5pts K.Doherty to beat C.Wakelin 6/5 bet365
2.5pts C.Yang to beat M.Mann evens bet365
1pt J.O'Neill to beat R.O'Sullivan 14/1 betfair
-----------------------------------------
1pt accy - Yang, O'Connor / M.Davis / Hicks 11/1 betfair
0.5pts accy - O'Neil / Doherty 21/1 betfair

This gets underway tomorrow. I've not looked too much at the matches yet but in the outright market i'll take a few. Main two bets will be Kyren Wilson and Murphy. Both in separate halfs. Allen would be a choice here but with his recent win I'm happy to leave him out. Wilson has been in fine form recently Murphy is in the bottom half which barring O'Sullivan looks a weaker group. In general though I'll take some huge prices on offer for this event. 10 1/2 pts staked.
2pts E/W K.Wilson to win Northern Ireland Open 12/1 willhill
1.5pts E/W S.Murphy to win Northern Ireland Open 22/1 betfred
--------------------------------------------
0.5pts E/W M.Gould to win Northern Ireland Open 80/1 willhill
0.75pts E/W Yuelong to win Northern Ireland Open 125/1 bet365
---------------------------------------------
0.25pts E/W J.O'Connor to win Northern Ireland Open 500/1 bet365
0.25pts E/W M.Davis to win Northern Ireland Open 500/1 boylesports
0.25pts E/W P.Junxu to win Northern Ireland Open 1000/1 boylesports

Few more let downs yesterday. McManus 3-1 up and loses on a decider but on the bigger picture it's early days in this event and plenty of time to chalk it back. Just the one bet today and it comes in the later match. I was very tempted to back Pang Junxu on the handicap against Mark Allen. It's hard to know how Allen is feeling right now but he could well be taking this as a knockaround after his win last week. Junxu looks a hot prospect. 
The one I do like is Ben Woollaston to beat Saengkham. Olly Lines was terrible against Saengkham. He was in on multiple occasions and just let Saengkham back in. Woollaston is on a winning bit of form right now and it baffles me that he is the underdog
5pts B.Woollaston to beat N.Saengkham evens bet365
2pts B.Woollaston -1.5 frames to beat N.Saengkham 7/4 bet365

Yeah, Gasquet should get the win there, this is a decent-looking event for him, has a real shot and there aren't many of those left for him in his career.

Welcome to the forum, Heisenberg68. I'm sorry you happen to join the day I pick three shockers. It can only get better from here. Just the one match interests me today/tonight and that's Ken Doherty against Wenbo. Wenbo has won the last two between these two but both have gone to a deciding frame. The main reason for the bet though is Ken Doherty's recent form. He looked really good at the Championship League finals and really should have made the final. He beat Higgins 3-0 and then kinda bottled it against Perry after going 2-0 up. With no pressure here, I expect him to get close to Wenbo and have every chance of winning.
5.5pts K.Doherty (+2.5 frames) to beat L.Wenbo 8/11 willhill
2pts K.Doherty to beat L.Wenbo 5/2 betfred
German Masters bets -13pts
Snooker 2020 bets +215pts

WOW!!