World Grand Prix

[Fader]

Once again, the day after the end of one tournament, we start another. The World Grand Prix starts tonight with four matches playing 7/8pm.

Outright picks first though. Yuelong is the only person I like from the bottom half really. Selby is obviously a big favourite to go through to the final but after winning an event only last night and with this being very short format, I'm overlooking the favourites.

Top half is much more interesting. I fancy Holt getting a result against Trump. I'm going with 4 on the top half. I thought about Bingham, as he is in a nice part of the draw but he drives me mad recently so he is an easy fade.

1pt E/W Z.Yuelong to win Grand Prix 50/1 bet365
0.75pts E/W R.Walden to win Grand Prix 125/1 bet365
0.5pts E/W K.Maflin to win Grand Prix 125/1 bet365
0.5pts E/W Lu Ning to win Grand Prix 175/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W M.Holt to win Grand Prix 275/1 betfair

 

[Fader]

Tonight's fixtures :

B.Hawkins Vs R.Walden
N.Robertson Vs R.Milkins
J.Perry Vs A.McGill
J.Higgins Vs X.Guodong

Hawkins against Walden is a real 50/50 for me. Walden is playing so well right now (hence the outright pick) but Hawkins tends to play really well until the business end of a tournament. The winner could go deep. I like the overs on the frames but I want to see how both perform. I think Milkins could keep it close against Robbo. I fancy McGill to beat Perry and Higgins should see off Guodong really. I'll take PPs boosted 4 fold as I like everybody to win barring the 50/50 with Hawkins and Walden 

5.5pts A.McGill to beat J.Perry 10/11 paddypower
2pts Hawkins, Robertson, McGill & Higgins 11/2 paddypower
1pt - Milkins, Walden and Higgins 14/1 paddypower

[charliepie]

Lots of big breaks and McGill wins comfortably! Milkins played really well too.

[Fader]

indeed, it could have been much sweeter if Walden turned up or even if Robbo beat Milkins for the 4-fold but main bet won. 

I'm sure some players are thinking of getting to their families for Christmas and perhaps their minds are not fully on Snooker when they've played so much recently. Players who don't need the ranking points so much, upon going out of this event can go and rest until Jan 10th for The Masters. Hence, for me, it's worth taking the outsiders in this short format. Also got to take into mind that these players have Covid tests before every event and so anybody can be pulled from the tournament.

Today's matches :

1pm
J. Trump Vs M. Holt
L. Hang Vs S. Bingham

2pm
D. Junhui Vs Jak Jones
L. Ning Vs R. Williams

7pm
D. Grace Vs Y. Bingtao
R. O'Sullivan Vs A. Carter

8pm
K. Wilson Vs K. Maflin
M. Gould Vs M. Allen

A good handful of matches today. Starting with the lunchtime meeting between Trump and Holt. Trump has a good head-to-head record against Holt but I think Holt has a good chance today. They've played eachother 3 times already this year. Judd won them all but Holt was 2-0 in the last match and lost to a decider. I'll put Holt in an accy. In the 2pm matches though, I like Lu Ning to beat Robbie Williams. They played in the Scottish Open only a week back and despite Ning leading 3-2, Williams came back to win 4-3. I think Ning wins this one. 

In the evening matches, I can see Grace getting the better of Bingtao again. Bingtao is on a poor run of form right now. He's lost his last 3 in a row and 4 out of the last 5. One of those matches was Grace beating him 5-2. I also like the look of Maflin against Wilson. Anybody backing Kyren Wilson last week will feel as annoyed as I was with that performance against Jamie Jones but apparently Wilson had a pretty bad car crash before that match and he is still hurting from it. It explains the performance and if there is any whiplash there, and knowing after this event he has a long break, I think Maflin could take his chance.

Carter has every chance against Ronnie if Ronnie comes and smashes the balls around.

4pts D. Grace to beat Y. Bingtao 9/4 paddypower
5pts Lu Ning to beat R. Williams 4/5 bet365
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1pt Li Hang, Grace & Ning 14/1 bet365
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0.5pts outsiders accy - Hang, Grace & Carter 33/1 bet365
0.5pts outsiders accy - Holt, Carter & Maflin 70/1 bet365
 

Grand Prix +2pts

[Fader]

small loss today. Bit of a joke day. Holt 3-2 up and 29-0 up on the table and loses his bottle. Li Hang 2-0 up, loses 4-2. Ning tried his best to throw away another 2-0 lead and Grace got to 3-3 and just turned to jelly against a bloody awful Bingtao. -2pts. Back to level for the tournament. I'm tempted to go with Maflin in the final match of the night for reasons explained above.

2pts K.Maflin to beat K.Wilson 2/1 bet365

[charliepie]

I've had plenty of these "nearly" days - makes you sick but hopefully will bounce back soon!

[Robaldo]

It was indeed a terrible day for punters... I still don't get how Grace missed position on the last brown ball... I nearly had to vomit...

Any bets for today? I liked Yuelong last tournament but the odds aren't that high on him...

The same goes for Wilson since I wanted to back whoever was going to play against Bingtao. odd is 1.54 at my bookie for Wilson.

Trump should trash Bingham imo. -1.5 frames is around 1.57.

Any chance for Jamie Jones you feel? Odds seem relatively high on him.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Robaldo

[Fader]

Grace absolutely bottled it. Bingtao gave him so many chances. Had such an easy finish and still messed it up.

Today's matches :

M.Selby Vs L.Wenbo
Z.Yuelong Vs H.Vafaei
J.Jones Vs Z.Xintong
S.Murphy Vs J.Lisowski
-------------------------------------
J.Trump Vs S.Bingham
M.Gould Vs L.Ning
R.O'Sullivan Vs B.Hawkins
Y.Bingtao Vs K.Wilson

I think it's worth taking Wenbo against Selby. Even if it's on the handicap. Selby has just won a good tournament and goes straight back into it. They've played twice in 2020 and it's a win a piece but Selbys win was on a decider. Wenbo is playing pretty well. led Trump 2-1 before losing 4-2. Beat Brecel with ease. In a "first to 4" I can see a close match there. Yuelong has a tricky match against Vafaei. I think he wins but he tends to lose the first frame alot and in a "First to 4" that's dangerous.

Jamie Jones is my first real pick. I do think that Jones's form is alittle bit masked. I'm not convinced he is playing as well as it looks on the form (example, Kyren Wilson had car crash before their match) but I think he is playing well enough to trouble Xintong. Xintong is so up and down with his form. 

Indeed, Trump and Wilson are probably good choices on the handicap and I also like the looks of Hawkins to beat Ronnie. 

5pts J.Jones to beat Z.Xintong 23/20 betfair
5pts K.Wilson (-1.5 frames) to beat Y.Bingtao 11/10 paddypower
2.5pts B.Hawkins to beat R.O'Sullivan 23/10 willhill
1pt accy - Trump -1.5 / K.Wilson -1.5 / S.Murphy / J.Jones 12/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)
0.5pt outsiders accy - Wenbo +1.5 / Murphy / Trump -1.5 / Hawkins +1.5 / K.Wilson -1.5 26/1 paddypower
 

[Fader]

Had a nagging feeling that Jones was abit of a trappy bet. Wilson atleast did the business to limit the loss to -3.5pts.

Not the most exciting tournament at the moment but we have plenty more matches today :

D. Junhui Vs H. Vafaei
M. Selby Vs A. McGill
J. Lisowski Vs R. Milkins
J. Higgins Vs Z. Xintong
J. Trump Vs M. Gould
R. O'Sullivan Vs K. Wilson

2pts E/W D. Junhui to win Grand Prix 10/1 bet365
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1.5pts Ding / Selby / Milkins / Higgins / Trump 7/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)

 

Grand Prix bets -5.5pts

 

[four-leaf]

With Ronnies records I gotta agree that Ronnie has to be the GOAT in snooker. He might even win 7 at the Crucible to be equal with Hendry before he puts away the cue for good.

https://wst.tv/ronnie-osullivans-records/?fbclid=IwAR3QPwcNgEIpHWShqJaoG5cp9zgFKplRwqQrUfVBpIuAIY8wZU0I-7Vy05E

[Torque]

Not for me. Most naturally talented - certainly. But the GOAT argument is more nuanced than that. For me, maximising your talent is part of the GOAT equation and he most definitely has not.

[charliepie]

Great link to Ronnie's stats, if you read through that and still don't think he's the GOAT then you're pretty hard to please! If he hadn't been plagued with mental health issues for most of his career can you imagine how that stats page would read? I don't really follow the maximising your talent argument I'm afraid, who would qualify under that definition do you think? Davis and Hendry were miserable(albeit successful) robots at their prime.

[Fader]

Just the one bet for me today and it's Lisowski to beat Xintong. Has had some good form now for a while and whilst I can't see him winning the event, I think he can get through this match. Xintong was excellent in his last match but he is far too inconsistent.

5pts J.Lisowski to beat Z.Xintong 17/20 betfair
2pst accy - Lisowski -1.5 frames / J.Trump -1.5 frames / Selby highest break in match 5/1 paddypower
 

[charliepie]

Yes he'll probably struggle with the match table(Vafaei), life must be tough in Iran - can't believe he's only 26 and Vahedi is 31, they both look like they're in their 40's?

[charliepie]

Some good points there inavac and I would tend to agree with your thoughts, Ronnie may never win another ranking title again as he does seem to be in decline since he hit 45 years old! His performances this season have been very erratic and if he continues with his no practise preparations he's probably doomed. It was amazing that he did win his 6th Worlds in August though. He has looked up for it tonight so far but just missing that extra degree needed to beat an in-form Trump. Score is 3-0 and 52-0 as I type so 4-0 on the cards at the mid-sesh...

*edit* Trump misses an easy red on 65 and R steps in with a 71 clearance so 3-1. Still Trump's match though and I'm on the -1.5 handicap so hope he wins 6-4!

Edited December 18, 2020 by charliepie
update score

[Fader]

That 5/1 winner and Lisowski winning puts me back into profit for a tournament I’m finding quite hard to get excited about.. perhaps it’s because the Darts are on. 

[Fader]

The second Semi-final gets underway at 7pm and we've got Jack Lisowski against Mark Selby for the right to play Judd Trump in the final. I actually thought that Selby should have won by more against Vafaei. He has got to be feeling jaded recently, with so much Snooker being played. Much will depend on whether this is a free scoring match or if it's a batters match and it's all about safety play. It's a "first to 6" match and that's a decent amount of frames to rule out too much luck.

Selby tends to always allow players in and sometimes he is reactionary as opposed to a Judd Trump who will just go all out to beating a player 6-0. I think Lisowski can atleast get 4 frames tonight.

5pts J.Lisowski (+2.5 frames) to beat M.Selby 4/5 paddypower
0.75pts M.Selby to beat J.Lisowski 6-5 13/2 paddypower

Grand Prix bets -3.25pts

[charliepie]

Agree that Jack has a chance tonight and may even win if things go his way and Selby is a little off like in his last match...

[charliepie]

Phew, that was a struggle! You probably should have won both your bets tonight. At 5-1 I was deciding what to type here about tomorrows match already. Best friends meeting in the final, Jack never having won a ranking event. I'm sure Judd would be delighted if his best friend won tomorrow so may not be putting 100% effort in if you get my drift...expect that Judd will be big fav tomorrow so might be worth a tickle on Jack. He might be nervous as it's the final but playing his practise partner should relax him and level the field a bit. Head-to-head is 7-7 so he shouldn't fear Trump.

[Fader]

I’ve not had a bet on the final. I may do on the second session. Only bet I would have probably taken is the century bet as should be free scoring 

[charliepie]

Wise man, Jack's goose is cooked and only one winner as Trump leads 5-1 already. Thought he might have let his pal win but no sign of that yet! At this rate Jack's never going to win a title in his career.

[Fader]

2 hours ago, charliepie said:

Wise man, Jack's goose is cooked and only one winner as Trump leads 5-1 already. Thought he might have let his pal win but no sign of that yet! At this rate Jack's never going to win a title in his career.

One thing you can always guarantee with Jack is he will bottle it. 

[Fader]

Had a small dabble on Trump winning 10-9 in typical Lisowski fashion of losing in the final frame. 7/1

[charliepie]

Fair play to Jack, he stepped it up a bit tonight and made it a close 10-7 though it could have been 6-6 at the interval...shame it didn't go to the 10-9 finish!

[Fader]

Yep, no Snooker now until Jan 10th, when we have The Masters at Ally Pally.

level in this tournament for me. +228.50pts for 2020 Snooker 

I'd take half of that profit next year.

[charliepie]

Great numbers there! Here's to more of the same in 2021:-)

[Fader]

3 minutes ago, charliepie said:

Great numbers there! Here's to more of the same in 2021:-)

Hope so, mate. Stick around for 2021  

[owenclass]

Good tournament