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UK Championship

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By Fader
in Snooker Predictions

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Straight into the UK Championships the morning after the final of the Northern Ireland Open. I think the top half is quite open and the place to be. Selby looks to have a great chance but at 8/1 it's not for me. Instead it's the defending champion who looks the bet of the top half. Ding. Ding looked pretty good last week and lead Ronnie at one point. Problem is, Ding tends to have abit of a mental issue playing Ronnie in my opinion and lacks belief. He wouldn't play Ronnie until the final here and Ronnie would have Trump before that. I will give another chance to Yuelong too

In the bottom half, I would expect Trump to once again blast through everybody but when a player wins a tournament there is always a drop in the next. We saw that with Allen after his win. I think outsider bets on both Saengkham and Un-Nooh are worthy. Both looked decent this past week and if Trump and Ronnie do go early it could really open wide.

2pts E/W D.Junhui to win UK Championship 18/1 betway
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0.5pts E/W Yuelong to win UK Championship 150/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W T.Un-Nooh to win UK Championship 150/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W Saengkham to win UK Championship 200/1 bet365
 

 

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Nothing jumps out of the page tomorrow morning. Perhaps Grace to come through his match, high on confidence. I do like Jianbo's chances against Dott though. Dott has been struggling for a while now and Jianbo showed last week he is a top class player and can scrap when needed.

2pts Z.Jianbo to beat G.Dott 5/1 bet365

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Jianbo woeful at times. Should have had the first frame. Forth frame and sixth frame. Pretty poor.

One I like for tomorrow is Heathcote to beat Wakelin. Wakelin has only beaten Ferg O'Brien in the last couple months. He got thrashed 5-0 by Kyren Wilson and then has subsequently gone out in round 1 of the last three tournaments. He's only managed 2 frames in the last 2 matches and that was average opposition in Ken Doherty and Stuart Carrington. Heathcote is not flying by any means, but he is scoring decent. He's won 3 of his last 4 and he's pushed Trump to a deciding frame. 

I'll add an outsider treble also with Jiahui to beat Milkins and Oliver Lines to beat Gary Wilson. Both have outsider chances but not enough for me to be backing with a high degree of confidence

4pts L.Heathcote to beat C.Wakelin 11/8 betfair 
1pt accy - Heathcote, Oliver Lines & Jiahui to win 23/1 betfred

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indeed, Heathcote was utterly useless. He was first in multiple times and just broke down. Some strange performances so far in this event. Looking at tomorrows matches. Not a great deal gets me excited. I think Yuelong gets through with ease against Devlin. He beat Devlin 5-0 only a couple weeks ago. The other two i like are for there to be more than 9 frames in the Mark Davis Vs Robbie Williams and the James Cahill vs Higginson matches.

6pts Yuelong (-3.5 frames) to beat P.Devlin 5/6 paddypower
1pt accy - Over 9.5 frames M.Davis Vs R.Williams / Over 9.5 frames A.Higginson Vs J.Cahill / A.Carter -2.5 frames / Yuelong -3.5 frames 13/1 paddypower *money back if one loses*

UK Championship bets -7pts

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Yuelong wins and looked pretty good after losing the first frame. Ali Carter lets down the accy but it was money back on that thanks to the other 3 coming in. Just the one I like tomorrow and its Ken Doherty to beat Lu Ning. Doherty has played Ning three times and has 3 wins. Last two have been 4-0 and 4-1 but they were a good few years ago. Ning has been playing alright really. Patchy but he's scoring well enough. Doherty is also scoring well. He has actually only won 2 of his last 5 but the losses were to Kyren Wilson x2 and Wenbo. Doherty tends to beat who he should beat. 

2.5pts K.Doherty to beat Lu Ning 11/10 bet365

UK Championship bets -2pts

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Doherty, 4-2 up loses 4 in a row in Ken Doherty only fashion. We start the second round today at 1pm. The one I like is Milkins to beat Gilbert. I had Jiahui to beat Milkins and he certainly played well, hitting 2 centuries and a 50+ but Milkins was on fire with 2 centuries and 3 50+ in the 6 frames he won. I'll also go for a 4-fold accy again (money back as free bet if one fails)

4pts R.Milkins to beat D.Gilbert 2/1 bet365
1pt accy - Milkins / Yuelong -3.5 frames to beat J.White / O.lines / Xintong 14/1 paddypower
 

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Milkins wins. No joy on the accy. A few I like today. Jordan Brown is playing really well at the moment and I fancy him to beat Jamie Jones today. Akani has a chance over Williams too. Williams won without dropping a frame in his last match but I still think he is susceptible when a player comes back at him. These two look to have the best chances, for me. I also like a few like Lu Ning, Junxu but I think i'll add those to an accy. The 4-fold on Paddypower for Ronnie, Selby, Bingham and Walden at 8/5 finishes my selections 

4pts J.Brown to beat J.Jones evens paddypower
2.5pts S.Akani to beat M.Williams 12/5 bet365
2.5pts R.Sullivan / M.Selby / Bingham & Walden 8/5 paddypower
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1pt accy - J.Brown / L.Ning / PJunxu 11/1 bet365
0.5pts accy - J.Brown / Ning / P.Junxu / S.Akani 42/1 bet365

UK Championship bets +2.5pts
 

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Let down by Ronnie. I actually thought about Ursenbacher beating Ronnie but in a match that is a "first to 6" I didn't fancy Ronnie losing. Selby, Bingham and Walden all did the business  but Ronnie let us down for the 4-fold. Brown and Akani get underway at 7pm.

Ning thrashes Selt 6-0 to keep the accys alive.

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A frustrating evening. Jordan Brown screws up the 3-fold. Ronnie screws up the 4-fold. Ah well, another day tomorrow. What's more annoying is that Un-Nooh and Saengkham both went out. Yuelong is flying the flag for me on his own now.

UK Championship bets -5.5pts

* got money back with Paddypower for the 2.5pts 4-fold that Ronnie ruined*

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The main bet for me tonight is Bingham to beat Dott. Dott actually has a very good record against Bingham (won 3 of the last 4) but I'm not convinced that Dott is a form horse right now and I just think he has had a nice draw or players that haven't stepped it up when needed. I wouldn't say Bingham is on fire by any means but I think the price of 8/11 is nice enough for what I see as a 75/25 match.

5.5pts S.Bingham to beat G.Dott 8/11 betfred
1pt accy - J.Higgins (-2.5 frames) / Li Hang (+3.5 frames) / Bingham to beat D.Dott / A.McGill -2.5 frames 6/1 paddypower
0.5pts accy - Milkins / Bingham / Li Hang 22/1 paddypower

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Ugh Bingham you let me down so much. Should have went 4-3 up but bottled it and once it went 5-3 it was over. Utter dross from Bingham. ONLY highlight of the day was seeing Yuelong come back from 5-3 down to win 6-5 and take his place in the last 16. He wlll face John Higgins for a place in the Quarter finals.

UK Championship -12.5pts

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I'm going to take Xu Si against Lisowski.. I don't feel like I can ever trust Lisowski as a favourite and these two have played out a close game before with Lisowski winning the decider. It's hard to know Lisowskis true form as he has played Ajaib and an out of sorts Pengfei. It's probably worth taking him on at 7/2.

2pts Xu Si to beat J.Lisowski 7/2 bet365
1pt accy - J.Jones / Lu Ning / Xu Si  17/1 betfair/
0.5pts afternoon double -  Maflin & Xu Si  15/1 paddypower

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