Scottish Open

[Fader]

Starts in a matter of hours really if you think about it  

I'm thinking Trump and Robertson will both withdraw. I'm only guessing but even if they don't it's not going to be a priority event for them now.

alot of selections but 14pts staked and I think if my hunch does come true it will be worth having one of these big prices on board

2pts E/W K.Wilson to win Scottish Open 11/1 paddypower
1pt E/W J.Higgins to win Scottish Open 18/1 betvictor
1pt E/W G.Dott to win Scottish Open 50/1 betvictor
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0.5pts E/W Yuelong to win Scottish Open 70/1 paddypower
0.5pts E/W A.McGill to win Scottish Open 70/1 paddypower 
0.5pts E/W M.Gould to win Scottish Open 125/1 paddypower
0.5pts E/W L.Brecel to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W S.Donaldson to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W K.Maflin to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
 

[Fader]

4pts A.McManus to beat Guodong 6/4 bet365
4pts M.Stevens to beat D.Gilbert 5/4 paddypower 

[Foo_Fighter]

13 hours ago, Fader said:

4pts A.McManus to beat Guodong 6/4 bet365
4pts M.Stevens to beat D.Gilbert 5/4 paddypower 

Stevens to beat Gilbert? A bit odd maybe? I know Gilbert is out of form, but still.. He's much better than Stevens on every aspect of the game. Anyway, good luck of course ? ? McManus was a great pick. ? 

[Fader]

1 minute ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Stevens to beat Gilbert? A bit odd maybe? I know Gilbert is out of form, but still.. He's much better than Stevens on every aspect of the game. Anyway, good luck of course ? ? McManus was a great pick. ? 

Last couple of months Gilbert has lost to McLeod, Grace, Milkins and Sijun. He's lost his last two in a row, although Milkins has been in abit of form recently. He also lost to Stevens only 2 months ago at the Welsh Open. I rate it a 50/50. 

[Heisenberg68]

Perfect frame for Yuelong ? 

? 147 

[Heisenberg68]

13 hours ago, Fader said:

4pts A.McManus to beat Guodong 6/4 bet365
4pts M.Stevens to beat D.Gilbert 5/4 paddypower 

Good job McManus ?
he could have lost frame 5 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Heisenberg68

[Fader]

15 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

Good job McManus ?
he could have lost frame 5 

He was 2-0 up too. 

[Heisenberg68]

Yes , 2-0 to 2-0 to 4-2 ?

[Fader]

I don't know how much snooker is going to be played tonight. They're already quite far behind because they're waiting on test results for Covid, from all the players. I have no idea why they leave these things so late. All seems abit amateurish. I do know that Trump is now playing tomorrow against Ursenbacher and not tonight. Whilst that means Trump will be more fresh, he's probably worth taking on. Ursenbacher is plenty capable as we saw with him beating Ronnie.

One tonight that looks overpriced is Zifan to beat Mark King. Zifan made the last 32 of the UK Championships, but got beaten easily 6-1 by McGill. McGill is pretty underrated though. He led Robbo 4-2 in the last 16 and had a brilliant worlds. He then got beat easily by Murphy but when Murphy turns up that can happen to anybody. Prior to that though he beat Bingtao and hit hit a century and a couple of 50+ breaks. He also beat Sijun with 3 50+ breaks. He beat King in their only head-2-head a while back. It's not like Mark is playing out his skin. He beat Lilley on a decider and then went out to Dott at the UK. He went out tamely to Surety at the Northern Ireland Open and also went out early at the English Open and Euro Masters. He is a battler but if he comes up against a scorer, they beat him. Kings highest break this year has been 76!! That's in 11 matches. I can see it being a bitty, boring match but I think ZIfan can take it 4-2/4-3.

2pts C.Zifan to beat M.King 9/4 paddypower

[Shauno123]

Good shouts yesterday! As a banker I fancy Dale's chances against Igor. Outside bet for me is Michael White. Donaldson is always vulnerable to a bad day in the office. 

Still recovering from UK champs final- had a few quid on Robertson and thought it was all over when Judd had his chance to win it 10-8. Cashed out a little when it went ot a decider- but don't regret that decision at all haha!! 

Really impressed by Trump's attitude and think he is still the one to beat this tourney.

[Shauno123]

Thepchaiya in a bit of trouble against the unranked Collumb!! 

I agree with your preview of the Chen Zifan encounter- but always hesitant backing the Chinese players after the Yupeng/Delu scandal. Obv can't taint everyone with the same brush but have noticed that bet365 do not offer some markets when it comes to all Chinese clashes- which speaks volumes!

Edited December 8, 2020 by Shauno123

[Fader]

44 minutes ago, Shauno123 said:

Thepchaiya in a bit of trouble against the unranked Collumb!! 

I agree with your preview of the Chen Zifan encounter- but always hesitant backing the Chinese players after the Yupeng/Delu scandal. Obv can't taint everyone with the same brush but have noticed that bet365 do not offer some markets when it comes to all Chinese clashes- which speaks volumes!

I think I make the majority of my winners with Chinese players but thinking back now, I've not backed many against fellow Chinese players. Over the years Lu Ning, Yuelong, Li Hang, Guodong, Yuelong have always been the underdog in matches and always been value. They always tend to try hard too. Unlike the likes of some of the players we've seen in this event so far. cough maguire cough

anybody see his frame 4 break? haha

[Fader]

One final bit of potential value tonight is David Grace to beat Shaun Murphy. Murphy went out tamely of the UK Championship to Elliot Slessor, who then went out very tamely to Lu Ning (6-1) I know Slessor had some tip issues but we couldn't say he was in fantastic form with that easy win over Murphy. Grace is always hard to beat and after a long break from the tour you get the feeling that every tournament means alot. I think if the UK doesn't mean a great deal for Murphy, then a home nations tournament probably won't. Murphy has a very good h2h record with Grace and ofcourse he is likely to win here but if he isn't up to it then Grace is certainly value

2pt bet if Zifan doesn't win. 4pt bet if he does.

D.Grace to beat S.Murphy 9/4 paddypower

[Fader]

23 hours ago, Fader said:

I don't know how much snooker is going to be played tonight. They're already quite far behind because they're waiting on test results for Covid, from all the players. I have no idea why they leave these things so late. All seems abit amateurish. I do know that Trump is now playing tomorrow against Ursenbacher and not tonight. Whilst that means Trump will be more fresh, he's probably worth taking on. Ursenbacher is plenty capable as we saw with him beating Ronnie.

One tonight that looks overpriced is Zifan to beat Mark King. Zifan made the last 32 of the UK Championships, but got beaten easily 6-1 by McGill. McGill is pretty underrated though. He led Robbo 4-2 in the last 16 and had a brilliant worlds. He then got beat easily by Murphy but when Murphy turns up that can happen to anybody. Prior to that though he beat Bingtao and hit hit a century and a couple of 50+ breaks. He also beat Sijun with 3 50+ breaks. He beat King in their only head-2-head a while back. It's not like Mark is playing out his skin. He beat Lilley on a decider and then went out to Dott at the UK. He went out tamely to Surety at the Northern Ireland Open and also went out early at the English Open and Euro Masters. He is a battler but if he comes up against a scorer, they beat him. Kings highest break this year has been 76!! That's in 11 matches. I can see it being a bitty, boring match but I think ZIfan can take it 4-2/4-3.

2pts C.Zifan to beat M.King 9/4 paddypower

Absolutely pathetic. I’m pretty sure he hasn’t potted a ball. Never seen that before 

[Shauno123]

2 hours ago, Fader said:

I think I make the majority of my winners with Chinese players but thinking back now, I've not backed many against fellow Chinese players. Over the years Lu Ning, Yuelong, Li Hang, Guodong, Yuelong have always been the underdog in matches and always been value. They always tend to try hard too. Unlike the likes of some of the players we've seen in this event so far. cough maguire cough

anybody see his frame 4 break? haha

Absolutely agree! Maguire has always been on my blacklist! Loses the plot way too often

Talking about blacklists- is there any other players you just wouldn't back?- even if they seemed like good value

[Fader]

16 hours ago, Shauno123 said:

Absolutely agree! Maguire has always been on my blacklist! Loses the plot way too often

Talking about blacklists- is there any other players you just wouldn't back?- even if they seemed like good value

Not so much blacklists. Sometimes, pairings I don't like touching like for example Bingham against Higgins. You get alot of pairings where somebody never beats the other no matter what. Players drive you mad one week but can win for you another so I tend to forget once I calm down. I must admit that I've never had a player i've back not pot one ball though so that's a new  

[Fader]

Just the one I like for the afternoon matches and I'm taking on the player I backed in the previous round, Matthew Stevens. He is up against Jamie Jones, who is in abit of form right now having reached the Last 16 of the UK Championships last week. He had a favourable draw to be fair but he is scoring well enough having hit a century in his last round and a couple of 50+ breaks. He beat Stevens the last time they met in 2015.

Stevens safety play is actually good and it's what won him the game against Gilbert. Gilbert made alot of mistakes though. Jones should make less.

2.5pts J.Jones to beat M.Stevens 11/10 bet365

[Fader]

Couple more for the later matches

Walden looks in good nick at the moment. Playing well and has just beat Junxu 4-0 in his previous match. Reached the latter stages of his last tournament and beat Williams. Speaking of Williams, I think his form has picked up abit recently and he isn't so easy to lay. I'm only taking Dale due to the price. Pengfei looked excellent against Gould. Gould didn't play well atall but Pengfei took advantage of every chance and made him pay. I can see him beating Wakelin today of whom I still think is bang out of form.

Lu Ning is the final bet and it's asmuch as seeing Un-Nooh out of form as it is seeing Ning IN form. Ning is looking like the old Lu Ning who I used to back all the time and that's good for the bank balance.

5pts R.Walden to beat T.Ford 23/20 betfair
4pts T.Pengfei to beat C.Wakelin 3/4 betfair
2.5pts Lu Ning to beat T.Un-Nooh 13/10 betfair
2.5pts D.Dale to beat M.Williams 23/10 willhill

1pt accy - Jamie Jones, Walden, Pengfei & Ning 16/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)
0.5pt outsider accy - Dale, O'Neill, Saengkham 32/1 bet365

[chris666]

5 hours ago, Fader said:

Just the one I like for the afternoon matches and I'm taking on the player I backed in the previous round, Matthew Stevens. He is up against Jamie Jones, who is in abit of form right now having reached the Last 16 of the UK Championships last week. He had a favourable draw to be fair but he is scoring well enough having hit a century in his last round and a couple of 50+ breaks. He beat Stevens the last time they met in 2015.

Stevens safety play is actually good and it's what won him the game against Gilbert. Gilbert made alot of mistakes though. Jones should make less.

2.5pts J.Jones to beat M.Stevens 11/10 bet365

Great shout Fader, thank you

I fancied Jones myself to win this, but sometimes i need back up before ploughing in!

Keep up the good work guys, love the forum

 

 

[Fader]

15 minutes ago, chris666 said:

Great shout Fader, thank you

I fancied Jones myself to win this, but sometimes i need back up before ploughing in!

Keep up the good work guys, love the forum

 

 

I thought when he managed to lose the 6th frame that he'd thrown it away, but good to see him see it through. Cheers chris. Good to see new people around the forum.

[Shauno123]

Good shout on Jones- decided not to go for in the end but should have gone with the form player.  I think the odds on Martin O Donnell tonight against White are pretty generous. Both White and Donaldson were poor last night- and O' Donnell is a much better match player- don't think he will offer up as many opportunities as Donaldson did to Michael White last night. 

 

 

 

 

[Fader]

ugh, How the hell did Walden lose that 5th frame. So frustrating!

62-0 up with 67 on the table. Put a Colour safe you absolute imbecile

2-0 up and the clown is going to lose 4-2. That's why you never win anything mate  

annnnd, he wins 4-3. Never in doubt  

[vikki37]

1 hour ago, Fader said:

ugh, How the hell did Walden lose that 5th frame. So frustrating!

62-0 up with 67 on the table. Put a Colour safe you absolute imbecile

2-0 up and the clown is going to lose 4-2. That's why you never win anything mate  

annnnd, he wins 4-3. Never in doubt  

surprised us in the end! Pengfei doing well too!?

[Fader]

yeah, I was frustrated with Walden because I knew the accy was there to win. The only loser looks to be Williams and I assumed Williams would win to be honest. He looks a different player at the moment. Could go quite deep here. Saengkham could easily trouble Higgins. That's just kicked off.

16/1 accy comes in 

Scottish Open bets +34.75pts
Snooker 2020 +249.25pts

[charliepie]

Well done, good days work there! Got a few lucky breaks but we've been robbed in the past?

[Fader]

I'm going to go with the following for today. May come back bit later too as we'll have a ton of matches on. Milkins is on fire at the moment. Makes sense to back him. He beat Bingham only a few weeks back and I don't think Bingham is on fire by his standards. Got blasted away by Dott, who just got blasted away by Milkins. 

3pts R.Milkins to beat S.Bingham 2/1 bet365
0.75pt outsider accy - Milkins, O'Neill & Saengkham 30/1 bet365
0.5pts outsider accy - Craigie, Haotian, Jianbo, Saengkham, Ning 20/1 bet365

 

[Fader]

Afternoon mega accy 0.5pts - Ning, O'Neill, Saengkham, Pengfei 118/1 betfair 

[Fader]

Milkins had a mass of chances. 3-2 up and only need 2 balls to win 4-2 but nil bottle. Bingham was all over the place in the final frame. 

[mcsilks]

39 minutes ago, Fader said:

Milkins had a mass of chances. 3-2 up and only need 2 balls to win 4-2 but nil bottle. Bingham was all over the place in the final frame. 

There are certain players I avoid betting on, as they play an 'unreliable' brand of snooker. Milkins falls into that bracket.

I am making some big money so far this tournament, as the top players are on their games. The quality at this Scottish Open is incredible. 60 centuries so far, and 11 130+ breaks. Staggering for a best of 7 game tournament.

 

[Fader]

1 hour ago, mcsilks said:

There are certain players I avoid betting on, as they play an 'unreliable' brand of snooker. Milkins falls into that bracket.

I am making some big money so far this tournament, as the top players are on their games. The quality at this Scottish Open is incredible. 60 centuries so far, and 11 130+ breaks. Staggering for a best of 7 game tournament.

 

Has been in good form recently, Milkins. Beat Williams only last week. You get some good prices on these kinda players that's the thing. I'm not keen on backing favourites alot of the time. Yesterday was a great day, I can't complain. I think Murphy and Ronnie could have games on their hands coming up. Overall, I'm hoping on Kyren now.