German Masters (plus quallies)

[Fader]

This started with the Qualifiers this morning but nothing took my eye in the morning matches. I may have a few for the 2.30pm matches and most likely I'll have 1 or 2 for the 7pm matches.

[Fader]

The only bet I like the look of this afternoon is Donaldson to beat Honghao with a -1.5 handicap. First to 4, you'd expect Donaldson to take control of that match. He is playing some nice stuff recently and is the only person to have pushed Mark Allen as he went on to beat Ronnie, Trump & Robertson. Donaldson should have beaten Allen 4-2 in his previous match and so you'd have to favour him for this.

In the later matches, i'll take a couple of outsiders. Vafaei has been playing some nice stuff again and I never feel comfortable betting on Barry Hawkins. Ian Burns has looked pretty poor to me as of late and I'll take Lilley to cause an upset there.

2.30pm:
5pts S.Donaldson (-1.5 frames) to beat L.Honghao 4/5 paddypower

7pm :
4pts H.Vafaei to beat B.Hawkins 7/4 bet365
4pts D.Lilley to beat I.Burns 6/4 bet365

[Heisenberg68]

thank you for sharing your analyzes. It Helps me for choose my bets 

[Fader]

Welcome to the forum, Heisenberg68. I'm sorry you happen to join the day I pick three shockers. It can only get better from here. Just the one match interests me today/tonight and that's Ken Doherty against Wenbo. Wenbo has won the last two between these two but both have gone to a deciding frame. The main reason for the bet though is Ken Doherty's recent form. He looked really good at the Championship League finals and really should have made the final. He beat Higgins 3-0 and then kinda bottled it against Perry after going 2-0 up. With no pressure here, I expect him to get close to Wenbo and have every chance of winning.

5.5pts K.Doherty (+2.5 frames) to beat L.Wenbo 8/11 willhill
2pts K.Doherty to beat L.Wenbo 5/2 betfred

German Masters bets -13pts
Snooker 2020 bets +215pts

[Fader]

I must admit that I'm pretty shocked how bad Doherty was. Perhaps it's bad luck me betting on these clowns. I'll keep on going. The winners will come back soon. This event feels abit "meh!" and the quality so far, when you compare it to last week, is night and day. 

The main bit of value I can see tomorrow is Oliver Lines to beat Saengkham. Oliver Lines was a player I wanted to follow in his last event but he was kicked out because his dad had caught Covid. He has beaten Saengkham in the last two head-2-heads and infact the last win was just a month ago. Infact, I think I tipped it up. 

I'll take a couple of accys too. Small outlay for potentially decent results to get some of these points back

4pts O.Lines to beat N.Saengkham 7/4 paddypower
1pt accy - N.Bond(+2.5 frames) / Yuelong(-2.5 frames) / D.Grace(-1.5 frames) / O.Lines(+1.5 frames) 12/1 paddypower (*money back if one leg loses)
0.5pt accy - Junxu / O.Lines / Bond 28/1 paddypower

German Masters bets -20.50pts
Snooker 2020 bets +207.5pts

[Heisenberg68]

@Fader, can you help me for understand something. 
a lot of people on this forum talk with Pts . 
Pts is a unit to bet ? 
For exemple , 1 pt can be worth 1$ , 1€ , 1£ , 10£ ... 

its correct ? 
thanks 

 

[Fader]

41 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

@Fader, can you help me for understand something. 
a lot of people on this forum talk with Pts . 
Pts is a unit to bet ? 
For exemple , 1 pt can be worth 1$ , 1€ , 1£ , 10£ ... 

its correct ? 
thanks 

 

correct, lots of variants in peoples stakes so 1pt would be relevant to your 1pt out of 10 valuation.

also helps with confidence of pick. I'd never bet 10pts  for example. Normally i'll be betting upto around 6pts

Fader

[Heisenberg68]

Maybe the results are bad because it’s only the tournament qualifiers. Players are less known and may be less motivated , But you are very efficient on the snooker, the winning bets will arrive.

I’m going to open a thread soon, and I’m going to follow you regularly because your analysis is very good

Edited November 12, 2020 by Heisenberg68

[Fader]

Thank you, Hsisenberg68. Good to have you around.

[Heisenberg68]

18 hours ago, Fader said:

I must admit that I'm pretty shocked how bad Doherty was. Perhaps it's bad luck me betting on these clowns. I'll keep on going. The winners will come back soon. This event feels abit "meh!" and the quality so far, when you compare it to last week, is night and day. 

The main bit of value I can see tomorrow is Oliver Lines to beat Saengkham. Oliver Lines was a player I wanted to follow in his last event but he was kicked out because his dad had caught Covid. He has beaten Saengkham in the last two head-2-heads and infact the last win was just a month ago. Infact, I think I tipped it up. 

I'll take a couple of accys too. Small outlay for potentially decent results to get some of these points back

4pts O.Lines to beat N.Saengkham 7/4 paddypower
1pt accy - N.Bond(+2.5 frames) / Yuelong(-2.5 frames) / D.Grace(-1.5 frames) / O.Lines(+1.5 frames) 12/1 paddypower (*money back if one leg loses)
0.5pt accy - Junxu / O.Lines / Bond 28/1 paddypower

German Masters bets -20.50pts
Snooker 2020 bets +207.5pts

Let’s go Lines for Accy @28/1 ??

 

question : Accy = accumulator ? 

[Fader]

12 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

Let’s go Lines for Accy @28/1 ??

 

question : Accy = accumulator ? 

Correct. Come on Lines! 

[Fader]

Looks like another choker to ruin an accy ?

[charliepie]

Had a bit of an unlucky run but that's snooker for you! Some outsiders with chances tomorrow...Dale, Filipiak, O'Neill, Hallworth, Brown, Hill and Michael White.

[avongirl]

charliepie

[Fader]

Welcome Charliepie, 

yeah, bigger picture things are going well. I'm not sure on Dale today as Jak Jones is hitting abit of form so I'm going to leave that one alone. Filipiak has been pretty awful recently so I also think he will struggle. I think McManus is overpriced at 2/1. McManus not only has a good record against Maguire (won the last 4 in a row) but he also has the luxury of already having played a match (Maguire's opponent withdrew) 

The other I like is Peifan to beat Duane Jones. Jones only managed one 50+ break in his win over Taylor whilst Peifan caught the eye beating Gary Wilson. He scored 2 centuries and 3 50+ breaks and was on fire in that match

4pts P.Lei to beat D.Jones 5/4 paddypower
2.5pts A.McManus to beat S.Maguire 2/1 bet365
1pt accy - Lei / McManus / oer 7.5 frames Guodong Vs M.Davis - 11/1 bet365

[Fader]

1.5pts accy - Jamie Jones (-1.5 frames) to beat D.Dale / Over 8.5 frames (Guodong Vs Davis) / M.White - 8/1 bet365

[Fader]

Few more let downs yesterday. McManus 3-1 up and loses on a decider but on the bigger picture it's early days in this event and plenty of time to chalk it back. Just the one bet today and it comes in the later match. I was very tempted to back Pang Junxu on the handicap against Mark Allen. It's hard to know how Allen is feeling right now but he could well be taking this as a knockaround after his win last week. Junxu looks a hot prospect. 

The one I do like is Ben Woollaston to beat Saengkham. Olly Lines was terrible against Saengkham. He was in on multiple occasions and just let Saengkham back in. Woollaston is on a winning bit of form right now and it baffles me that he is the underdog

5pts B.Woollaston to beat N.Saengkham evens bet365
2pts B.Woollaston -1.5 frames to beat N.Saengkham 7/4 bet365

[charliepie]

Higginson, O'Donnell and Vahedi were my possibles - matches in progress as I type.

[Fader]

good calls yesterday, Charlie.

[charliepie]

Thanks, got lucky as it's not often you'll hit 5/7 @ odds against! Woollaston has every chance if he plays as well as yesterday.

[four-leaf]

On 11/13/2020 at 2:09 AM, charliepie said:

Had a bit of an unlucky run but that's snooker for you! Some outsiders with chances tomorrow...Dale, Filipiak, O'Neill, Hallworth, Brown, Hill and Michael White.

I like Michael White especially because he is always a player with chance of having some higher capacity then what the bookies rate him as when they set their odds. I saw Whites odds yesterday and read here and then decided to have a bet on the guy from Wales. And he didn't screw it up, which can be the case with him but that's also one of the reasons for the odds they set on him most of the times.

[charliepie]

Pang didn't need the handicap, ran out 5-2 easy winner @ 5/1!

[Fader]

33 minutes ago, charliepie said:

Pang didn't need the handicap, ran out 5-2 easy winner @ 5/1!

Yep. Top player but I think it’s also a mix with Allen not needing it. Typical really that I didn’t back it  having a mare 

[charliepie]

Makes you want to cry sometimes doesn't it! Plenty of matches tomorrow in the NI open

[Fader]

1 hour ago, charliepie said:

Makes you want to cry sometimes doesn't it! Plenty of matches tomorrow in the NI open

Yeah and I'm pretty stubborn so I'll try my best to get these points back by end of event ? 

[Fader]

German Masters continues tomorrow. It's quite an open event with only really Judd Trump in the tournament from the world top 5. He sits in the top half along with Ding and Shaun Murphy. It looks to me like a Trump/Murphy semi-final but Barry Hawkins and Ding would certainly have something to say about that. I'll give a chance to Hawkins, whom has the biggest odds of the handful that look likely to make the last 4.

In the bottom half it's much more open. Higgins is the highest ranked down there but after watching him absolutely bottle it at times in the final of the Masters, I can't be having him again. I'll take Yuelong in the bottom half. He seems to be getting closer and closer and this is a brilliant chance for somebody "unknown" to win. I'll also take a couple of outsider punts on Brecel and Saengkham..

1.5pts E/W Z.Yuelong to win German Masters 16/1 bet365
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1pt E/W B.Hawkins to win German Masters 25/1 betfred
1pt E/W L.Brecel to win German Masters 40/1 betfred
--------------------------------------------------------------------
0.5pts E/W N.Saengkham to win German Masters 66/1 betfred

[Fader]

Higgins has also withdrawn because of a positive covid test and so it gives me reason to have a couple small bets on Joe O'Connor and Sijun of whom both I think has genuine chances of winning tomorrow (today) and could be huge each-way claims. Obviously it means the winner of Bingham/Yuelong should really be making the final but with small format matches you just never know.

0.25pts E/W J.O'Connor to win German Masters 150/1 skybet 
0.25pts E/W Y.Sijun to win German Masters 100/1 betfred

[Fader]

Matches galore tomorrow. I think Michael White did enough for me to back him to beat Ferg O'Brien. We've not seen Ferg for a while and despite White breaking down alot in his breaks at the WST event, he did look free-flowing and I think he should win that meeting. In the evening matches, I can't ignore how awful Dott was at The WST event. I've never seen him that bad. That could be because he just wanted to get it out the way and get into a more serious event, such as this one. However, if hat's the case, you would atleast expect him to score decently now and then. His highest break in 7 matches, was 52 and he lost all 7. It's just weird. I have to lay him.

5.5pts M.White to beat F.O'Brien 8/11 bet365
3pts J.Brown to beat G.Dott 2/1 bet365

[Fader]

Finally, a winner. Jordan Brown beats Dott but White was awful. Was also good to see Hawkins come back from 4-0 down to win 5 in a row and get through. Hawkins should be making the semi-finals here as a minimum. +0.5pts for the day.

A couple of players will be playing twice tomorrow. We will have the completion of the 1st round in the morning. The start of the Last 16 in the afternoon and then in the evening the completion of the Las 16, We'll know the remaining 8 quarter-finalists already by end of play, tomorrow.

9am matches (completion round 1)
Junxu Vs R. Williams
Bingham Vs Yuelong
Heathcote Vs Lisowski
Brecel Vs Saengkham

2pm (start of last 16)
Trump Vs Perry
Ding Vs Dale
Hawkins Vs Jak Jones
O'Brien Vs O'Connor

7pm (completion Last 16)
O'Neill Vs J. Brown
Ford Vs Carrington
-----------------------------------------
Junxu/Williams Vs Bingham/Yuelong
Heathcote/Lisowski Vs Brecel/Saengkham

There are some crackers in the morning, tomorrow. Bingham Vs Yuelong is the pick of those matches and I'll be hoping that Yuelong can turn up for this. He looked decent enough recently, at the WST Pro Series. Bingham though, managed to win 7 from 7 at the pro series and didn't lose one frame (7 x 2-0 wins) that's one impressive session. Combined they hit 5 centuries between them. The first bet I do like though is Pang Junxu to beat Robbie Williams. These two met 4 months ago at the European Masters and Junxu won 5-1. He's also already beaten Ursenbacher and Mark Allen in this event whilst Williams has won deciding legs against Nuble and O'Donnell. 

2.5pts P Junxu to beat R. Williams 6/5 paddypower
-----------------------------------------------
1pt P. Junxu and Z. Yuelong both to win 5/1 paddypower
1pt J O'Neill, Dale & Brecel all to win 13/1 paddypower
0.5pt accy - Junxu, O'Neill, Ford, Dale 25/1 paddypower
 

 

[Robaldo]

7 hours ago, Fader said:

Finally, a winner. Jordan Brown beats Dott but White was awful. Was also good to see Hawkins come back from 4-0 down to win 5 in a row and get through. Hawkins should be making the semi-finals here as a minimum. +0.5pts for the day.

A couple of players will be playing twice tomorrow. We will have the completion of the 1st round in the morning. The start of the Last 16 in the afternoon and then in the evening the completion of the Las 16, We'll know the remaining 8 quarter-finalists already by end of play, tomorrow.

9am matches (completion round 1)
Junxu Vs R. Williams
Bingham Vs Yuelong
Heathcote Vs Lisowski
Brecel Vs Saengkham

2pm (start of last 16)
Trump Vs Perry
Ding Vs Dale
Hawkins Vs Jak Jones
O'Brien Vs O'Connor

7pm (completion Last 16)
O'Neill Vs J. Brown
Ford Vs Carrington
-----------------------------------------
Junxu/Williams Vs Bingham/Yuelong
Heathcote/Lisowski Vs Brecel/Saengkham

There are some crackers in the morning, tomorrow. Bingham Vs Yuelong is the pick of those matches and I'll be hoping that Yuelong can turn up for this. He looked decent enough recently, at the WST Pro Series. Bingham though, managed to win 7 from 7 at the pro series and didn't lose one frame (7 x 2-0 wins) that's one impressive session. Combined they hit 5 centuries between them. The first bet I do like though is Pang Junxu to beat Robbie Williams. These two met 4 months ago at the European Masters and Junxu won 5-1. He's also already beaten Ursenbacher and Mark Allen in this event whilst Williams has won deciding legs against Nuble and O'Donnell. 

2.5pts P Junxu to beat R. Williams 6/5 paddypower
-----------------------------------------------
1pt P. Junxu and Z. Yuelong both to win 5/1 paddypower
1pt J O'Neill, Dale & Brecel all to win 13/1 paddypower
0.5pt accy - Junxu, O'Neill, Ford, Dale 25/1 paddypower
 

 

I am in with Junxu. I will also play Ford to hit a century at 1.83 (betFIRST). He is in good shape and hit 2 centuries last match. Also in the short format games before, he regularly hit one. It's worth a try I guess..