amity
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Posts posted by amity
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Re: Australian Open 2015 Personally, I'm taking Makarova to beat Vinci (1/3 with Paddy Power). Makarova was dominant in her first round match and has a proven record at the slams in recent years while Vinci's best days as a singles player seem increasingly to be behind her as she focusses more on the doubles these days with Errani.
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Re: Australian Open 2015
Karlovic should have too much for Kyrgios, also the Aussie was treated for his back during that match. Goffin often lets a set (or even two) slip against inferior opponents, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cypriot taking a set, but Goffin should take care of this in 4 sets. I agree that Fed to win 3-0 is not banker material, Bollelli has been playing very solidly of late, he could well take Fed to a tiebreak in one of the sets, still though it should be 3-0 so long as Rog stays focussed throughout.After a nice Evens fivefold yesterday, I'm going for an Evens fourfold today. Berdych (v Melzer) Anderson (v Berankis) Dimitrov (v Lacko) Federer 3-0 (v Bolelli) I'm always nervous of set betting, so I might swap Fed for something else if I can find a safe looking 1/3 shot or better. Goffin to beat Baghy maybe ? I'll also have a single bet on Karlovic to beat Kyrgios at 4/6. Ivo is playing well and he seems to enjoy playing other big servers. -
Re: Australian Open 2015 So, gents, thoughts on the main draw? A tough starter for Federer, if Lu is up for it, he could cause the Swiss some problems. Home hope Kyrgios is chronically short of match practice, so I can't see him going far. Murray has Dmitrov waiting for him down the line, and then Fed, Nadal/Berdych and Novak/Stan/Kei, so I think we can rule him out. Is Nadal gonna be ready for this? I'm not convinced. The one light on the horizon was his performance in the Doubles recently where him and Monaco won recently. Stan and Kei should both make their projected quarter final, could be looking at another five setter there. Djoker has all the weapons to win back his title, as we all know, and it will take a monumental performance from any of the other contenders to topple him. Roll on Sunday night/Monday morning!
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Re: Australian Open 2015 It's been a long season for Wawrinka, he's only just finished up after a sterling performance in London and helping Switzerland to the Davis cup, so even with the couple of months break they get, he might not be firing on all cylinders straight away. But that said, the man is playing supremely well. If he can keep that form going into the start of '15, he has a really solid chance. The thing with Stan though, is he sometimes presses the self destruct button. He really should have beaten Nishikiori in New York, he wouldn't have feared Djokovic and even an inspired Cilic(who Simon should have beaten long before the final). A small speculative e/w on Stan might be worth a shout, but I'd hold off on anything bigger til we get into January or until we get to see the draw.
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Re: October 27 - November 2
I can't see Robredo winning this one, unless Kei has lost some fitness from not playing, but I doubt it. Robredo ground his way through his last match with Pospisil, despite having several breaks to get treated on his back and being a break down in the third set, but he hung in there and Pospisil's self doubts crept in and Tommy snook it in the end. But like you said, he has to be very tired by now, I just can't see him beating a superfit guy like Nishikori who can play all day and who returns everything.I cann't bet on match with Tommy. As for me it's unpredictable now. Tommy played so much tennis last time. He must be exhausted even with his his excellent physical condition. On the other hand Nishi played nothing last weeks :))) -
Re: US Open 2014 Anyone see Fed's match last night? I saw some of it and I was struck by how he is playing with abandon, quite brilliant at times, but he is also guaranteed to throw in one or perhaps two very sloppy service games per set. Fortunately he is returning so well that he's getting away with it. It's great to watch though, it's rare to see a top player so totally playing with his instincts rather than slowing things down so as to think through what he should do next. Against Bautista-Agut, he didn't have to hit top gear, I feel he has another level he can hit, which he will need in his upcoming match(es).
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Re: US Open 2014
Hewitt was indeed awful against Benneteau recently, he just didn't seem interested. But the week before that, he was brilliant, beating several high ranked players, serving superbly and pushed Raonic very close, and could easily have taken a set off him. It depends which Hewitt turns up, hopefully it being a major, the motivated Hewitt will play rather than the can't be arsed version. As for Chardy, yes he was awful against Falla, but aside from the first set, he turned it up when it mattered most. If he stays focussed, he could beat Kavcic with a bit to spare. Speaking of Falla, what a frustrating player he is, he had so many chances, had the upper hand so many times against Chardy, but let him back in every time.Hewitt +5.5 (2.07) to beat Tomas Berdych From what I saw not long ago, Hewitt is plain awful. So, the bet is not completely based on him but mostly on Berdych's even worse form of late.Quite simply, Berdych's in his worst form of the year, with no confidence at all and I just can't see how he could possibly raise his game all of sudden. Under the current circumstances this match is very likely to be more tighter than the odds suggest. Hewitt still has what it takes to seriously trouble the favs every now and then, so at worst I believe the Aussie will be able to cover this handicap. Blaz Kavcic +4.5 (1.87) to beat Jeremy Chardy Chardy was piss poor against Falla in R1, so at the moment I believe Kavcic stands a very strong chance to win this match, though I'm gonna stick to safer option. The Frenchman's form sucks since Wimbledon, and he's never been a player capable of turning things around so easily. He's up against a big hard-worker - Kavcic - who never gives up and certanly never gives his opponents any easy points. Kavcic will be fired up for this one and will surely put in a big fight, so I fancy his chances against Chardy. At least he should be able to cover the handicap. -
Re: US Open 2014
Groth has drifted from 4/7 to 4/5, no clues on his twitter feed. Anyone know whay this might be?Samuel Groth to beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas (4/7 with Paddy Power) I've seen a bit of Sam Groth in recent months and have been pretty impressed. He had a great run in Newport(grass) last month where he beat Young, Jaziri and Mahut before going out to Karlovic in the semis. Admittedly, his results on HC have not been that noteworthy of late, although he did push Gasquet to two tiebreaks last month. In terms of ranking, there's not much between the two, both of them just inside the top 100, and overall you would have to say Ramos has the better overall game and has some decent results on clay this year, however, his last game on HC was in the Australian Open back in January, where he was beaten in straight sets by Andujar. Meanwhile Groth has been playing on hardcourt all year, albeit with mixed results, but he's clearly more at home on the surface than Ramos. Added to that, Groth has a monster of a serve, indeed he holds the record for fastest serve ever. Ramos might make it to a tiebreak or two, and might snatch a set 7-6 but overall, I think Groth's huge serve and greater experience on HC will win out. -
Re: US Open 2014
Will be fascinating to see how this quarter pans out. Rosol beat big server Janowicz in the final in Winston-Salem so he's not without hope against Raonic presuming he comes through his first round match, and after that the draw opens up nicely for him. Another dangerous floater is Robredo, he beat Djokovic in Cincinatti only a few weeks ago and it took the eventual runner-up Ferrer to beat him in three close sets. With doubts over Nishikori's fitness and Wawrinka inconsistent, he could be worth a shout, so long as he handles Posposil in the second round (he's also playing well of late, reaching the final in Washington a month ago).Back Lukas Rosol to win the 2nd quarter for a 1/10 stake at 101.00 with Pinnacle Back Jack Sock to win the 2nd quarter for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Pinnacle Back Jeremy Chardy to win the 2nd quarter for a 1/10 stake at 81.00 with Pinnacle Both Raonic and Wawrinka look vulnerable to me, so I am going to try my luck with three outlandish picks in the second quarter. All three guys have enough firepower and could upset the big guys with a little bit of luck, however, so I do believe that there's some value in backing them at odds this high. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/us-open-2014-betting-the-second-quarter-might-see-a-surprising-number-of-upsets -
Re: US Open 2014 Samuel Groth to beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas (4/7 with Paddy Power) I've seen a bit of Sam Groth in recent months and have been pretty impressed. He had a great run in Newport(grass) last month where he beat Young, Jaziri and Mahut before going out to Karlovic in the semis. Admittedly, his results on HC have not been that noteworthy of late, although he did push Gasquet to two tiebreaks last month. In terms of ranking, there's not much between the two, both of them just inside the top 100, and overall you would have to say Ramos has the better overall game and has some decent results on clay this year, however, his last game on HC was in the Australian Open back in January, where he was beaten in straight sets by Andujar. Meanwhile Groth has been playing on hardcourt all year, albeit with mixed results, but he's clearly more at home on the surface than Ramos. Added to that, Groth has a monster of a serve, indeed he holds the record for fastest serve ever. Ramos might make it to a tiebreak or two, and might snatch a set 7-6 but overall, I think Groth's huge serve and greater experience on HC will win out.
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Re: August 4 - August 10 I had a look at the odds on Paddy Power, surprised to see Hewitt out at 300-1, when he's been playing well lately, and was only beaten in two tiebreaks by eventual winner Raonic last week. Unfortunately he's in the same quarter as Raonic but on a slightly slower court, he might have a shot. Of course he's not getting any younger, and on any given day, he can throw in a shocker, but at those odds, he might be worth a punt at very small stakes. Tsonga is at 66 to 1 with PP, considering he's capable of troubling all the top players, that's also pretty generous odds.
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Re: July 21 - July 27 Hi Czech, I should have come into this thread a lot earlier but got caught up with work stuff yesterday. I was following Sela Vs Karlovic recently and was really impressed with the Israeli. He definitely should have taken the first set tiebreak when leading 4-0 and in the second set tiebreak, he only lost by the odd point, so he was in good shape coming into this. So I was tempted by the juicy odds on Sela to beat Querrey yesterday as Querrey has no real Plan B when his serve isn't firing, Sela has a better all round game in my opinion. Sadly I wasn't brave enough to take the plunge on Sela having been stung by some other recent bets. As for Istomin Lacko, yes it was a surprsing loss considering how well Istomin has been performing of late. I was following this one as well, and won a few quid on Lacko in running, once I could see how poorly Istomin was performing. It's hard to say if this will be a turning point in Lacko's season or if Istomin just had an off day. Either way, the Slovakian did well to mosrly dominate the match from early in the second set onwards, despite almost throwing it away with some nervy serving when approaching the finish line.
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Re: March 17 - March 23 Anyone see Batista-Agut's game yesterday against Steve Johnson? He started slowly, and threw in a poor service game early doors, but thereafter he had breakpoints on almost every one of Johnson's service games, and he steamrolled through almost every one of his own service games. Have to say I was impressed. I thought he might be fatigued after going deep in recent tournaments but no, he looked fresh, and he'll be a threat to anyone, even the big guns, if he keeps this standard up.
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Re: March 17 - March 23 @Torque Agree with you certainly on Thiem, I was very impressed with him against Rosol, who played reasonably well, but threw in one or two sloppy service games and that was all the young Austrian needed. He also more than matched Rosol in the longer rallies too, which I wasn't expecting. I think Thiem could well take this, unless Robredo brings his best game.
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Re: March 10 - March 16
I watched almost the entire match and won some cash in running, before losing it all and more when Monfils inexplicably threw away the game when serving for the match What a pair of clowns They're both capable of terrific tennis but neither is capable of maintaining focus beyond a few games at a time, and this is why neither will make (or at least stay for any length of time) the top ten The amount of chances both players fluffed was staggering Fognini is a grade one buffoon, talent to burn but he can't be arsed to stay focussed, Monfils is not much better, but at least his inconsistency can partly be explained by little niggles he picks up (as he did during this match) Monfils' collapse when serving for the match was outrageous And I thought the women were flakey! f&ck me, these two take the biscuit I will think very carefully before throwing money on either of these two gimps againGael Monfils (-1.5 Sets) vs Fabio Fognini 2.10 Paddy Power I think this is where Fognini checks out. Monfils have proven to be very motivated coming in to this tournament. Fognini will never be a class hardcourt player like Monfils. -
Re: Australian Open 2014
That's a fair comment, and on first glance, 2.15 on Murray to beat Federer is crazy odds and should be snapped up before the bookies realise their mistake. However, all that said, two points should be kept in mind: 1) Murray has very little game time since his back surgery and although he's performed pretty well since arriving in Melbourne, he still showed some signs of flakiness, like fluffing three matchpoints in the third set against Robert, also the way he capitulated to Mayer a few weeks ago was pretty shocking, assume it was injury related though. My point anyway is that in the longer matches, Murray is gonna show some signs of weakness. However, If he can wrap this up in three sets, then that won't be an issue. 2) Which brings me to my next point, Federer was impressive against Tsonga, admittedly Tsonga was pretty poor, but Fed was the dominant player through most of the match, even when his first serve wasn't firing, his second serve and netplay was still giving Tsonga plenty of problems, and so I don't see Murray wrapping this up in three sets, which means Murray is gonna experience some problems, whether it's enough to prevent him winning the match in four, or perhaps five sets, I can't say. Heart says Federer, but Head says Murray, 3 sets to 1, so yes, definitely worth taking those 2.15 odds if they're still to be had.1 pick for the Australian Open: MURRAY TO DEFEAT FEDERER @ 2.15 on pinnaclesports Murray is a better player than Federer currently and has been for the last 2 years. The Head2Head is 11-9 to Murray all-time. Federer lost to Hewitt (who plays similar to Murray) in Brisbane two weeks ago. At least a 50/50 match for me with odds of 2.15. -
Re: Australian Open 2014
Niculescu hung in there against Lisicki and allowed the German to self destruct, as she often does She(Lisicki) made a f&ckload of unforced errors, and Niculescu had only 8 winners, would you believe! The Romanian's big strength is her unusual playing style which can throw off opponents and her ability to scamper after and return all but the most well placed of shots But if her opponent doesn't make many errors, she can come unstuck I just have a feeling that Makarova, who has a much better temperment than Lisicki, will have too many weapons for NiculescuEketerina Makarova vs Monica Niculescu over 20.5 games 8/11 skybet makarova to win 2-1 3/1 skybet well this will be interseting as it the improved player against the one that beat lisiki in the last round so expct a close match -
Re: Australian Open 2014
I'd agree with this one Wang had some difficulties beating Irish no. 1 James McGee in the first qualifying round, he won that 7-6 7-5, but McGee (who is well down the rankings) broke him a couple of times in the second set, which is not a good sign I think Lu should win this in straight sets and should be capable of covering the handicap, 6-4 6-3, 7-5 or equivalent, would be surprised to see Wang taking a set, if he does it'll be in a tiebreak, but even then I'd rate Lu as a good shot to cover the handicap3pts Hsun-Lu [-5.5 games] to beat J.Wang 1.66 Bet365 Every time they have played on the outdoor hard Lu has won in straight sets. Id imagine this to be 3-0 / 3-1. The handicap should be covered with one big set score. Lu done very well in Auckland getting to the final and pushing Isner 7-6 7-6. He also beat Ferrer in the semi-finals. Wang has had some good results on the hard but I don't see him matching Lu here. -
Re: Australian Open 2014 Draws have been made: http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/index.html
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Re: October 21 - October 27 Yep Anderson is a frustrating player, I've never seen a guy pass up so many break opportunities as him!
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Re: US Open 2013
very unlucky mate Youzhny almost took the game at the end of first set which would have made it 5-5 and Novak stepped up another level in that last set, he would probably have bageled everyone bar Murry and NadalBitter loss. Did not see Youzhnyi to let himself bagelise after he has won the third set :-( -
Re: US Open 2013 those are crazy odds on Robson I can see her taking a set at least, and could well win it Li is no world beater
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Re: US Open 2013 @Alfie White no worries mate, was very close anyway, you're right to take a chance on situations like this where the odds are slightly more than they should be, i'd say quite a few people threw a saver bet on Zemjla's overs anyway, as he played very well in that third set
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Re: US Open 2013 @Alfie White interesting, I had no idea Zemlja was so poor on hardcourts, until I saw your stats as he was very impressive at Wimbledon, beating Dmitrov and pushing Del Potro hard for two sets It's hard to say how Fed will fare, he played very well in Cincy, but very poor before that, let's hope the right Rog turns up this week and at least makes it to the QFs
Australian Open 2015
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
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Re: Australian Open 2015
Thanks for the suggestions guys. Baghdatis also benefits from the Greek Australians in the crowd, of which there are many. This is probably worth a few games to him. If Marcos can harness that, he should take at least one set, perhaps more.