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Posts posted by amity

  1. 1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

    @adastra Fritz has been really classy recently, much improved in every respect, but this certainly won't be an easy match for him.

    I'm backing Fognini to beat Ofner at 1.73 with William Hill, he seems to be the best he's been for quite a while, and this might very well be some sort of a swan song tournament for him as well. 

    On the WTA side of things, I like Avanesyan to beat Tauson at 2.89 with Pinnacle. It's such a huge price, and I've heard nothing but praise for Avanesyan for her two wins in the early rounds. She isn't the favourite, of course, but Tauson tends to have off-days as well, and seems a bit overrated in this particular spot.

    Fritz could face a hostile reception in his next match, despite not playing against a French opponent. The crowd won't forget his shushing of them last time out! 😆

  2. Well that last frame was a real eye opener, with Selby snatching a frame (to make it 6-4) that realistically Allen should have put to bed on a few occasions. Frame started off though again with Selby tentative and unconfident, Allen taking his chances, as has been the case til now, to the point where I was so disillusioned by Selby's play that I began hedging on Allen. But something happened in this frame which might just decide the match. Allen didn't close it off when he had the chance and Selby smelling blood, began a series of exceptional safety shots, some of the best I've seen all tournament. Allen became rattled for the first time all match, and he really should have sunk the yellow to kill the frame. Instead he missed it and a few more superb safety shots from Selby and he was in and expertly seized his opportunity with some brilliant positional play to sink the remaining colours. It remains to be seen if this was just a brief flash of brilliance from the Jester or if he can now press on from here, having shown what he's capable of.

  3. Selby starts off strong yesterday with that big break then proceeds to play very nervously for the rest of the session. Meanwhile Allen is playing like the man who won a couple of titles earlier this season, a totally different animal to his stuttering inconsistent efforts in the last round. Let's hope Selby gets it together today, time to show your mettle Matthew. 

  4. 5 minutes ago, charliepie said:

    Well, that was tense! Looking forward to the Si/Luca match as that should be attacking and open. Whoever's sitting on Si at 1000 outright would be advised to lay some of it off as I expect he won't have much left to give after all the frames he's played or maybe he's still young enough for that not to matter. All of China will be rooting for him which brings a lot of pressure too.

    I have him on 125/1 I think it was , but only with small change unfortunately! Still might be worth to hedge a bit on him, we'll see. 

  5. McGill just too inconsistent, the occasional excellent big break interspersed with several very poor frames where he just couldn't get it together. 

    In the semis, am surprised to see Selby at 4/7 or so with most bookies, I think he beats Allen convincingly. The Northern Irish man has been well below his best so far, playing like a rank amateur at times, and yet somehow he's made it to the semis, hard to believe. Selby, if he turns up at all, should win this with a few frames to spare. 

  6. Genuinely, I have never seen a professional snooker match, particularly in the latter stages of such a huge tournament, with such a shockingly poor standard from both players. I don't know if nerves can explain it. Jones particularly made some absolutely inexplicable mistakes, in almost every frame. Allen only got through as his level of play was not quite as appalling as Jones. Selby/Higgins will go to town on him in the semis, if this match is anything to go by.

  7. 1 hour ago, Fader said:

    McGill has started like utter crap again today. His level in this match has been amateur at best

    Not so fast there, both Jones and Allen are challenging hard as well for the title of "most inept performance in a world snooker championship quarter final in history" 😆🤦‍♂️

  8. Incidentally am watching Jones Allen now and the standard is not great. A lot of missed pots from both. Scrappy frames and very few big breaks aside from Jones with 94 early doors, My centuries bet not looking too likely unless both get their fingers out sharpish. Ye gods, another missed sitter from Jones 😦 this is really brutal standard at the moment, neither of them deserve to go any further on this showing. 

  9. Was reading Neal Foulds over on sporting life and he said the table being used for the lower half of the draw has very big pockets, making big breaks more likely. 

    With this in mind, William Hills boosted 4/1 on both players to make at least one century in Jones/Higgins match has to be worth a look. 

    Edit - Sorry it seems it's both players to score more than one century, still not a bad bet but not a certainty, knew it was too good to be true! 😆

  10. I couldn't believe Murphy's play to get out of the snooker in the final frame. How could he miss it three times in a row?! 

    His final attempt was particularly amateurish whereby he just belted it and hoped for the best. 🤦‍♂️ Possibly the pressure got to him, can't think of any other explanation. Both players made uncharacteristic mistakes in that final frame but Murphy must be kicking himself, Juahui gave him several chances to win after all, but he couldn't seize the day. 


  11. Saw a bit of Ronnie's match, he's not playing well enough to win the title, if this match is anything to go by.

    Watching Carter and Jones now. Standard has been pretty poor from both. Jones has been shocking at times yet somehow is leading 5-3. Carter must be wondering how on earth he lost that eighth frame, having been in total control and with a free ball and needing just one more pot to leave Jones needing snooker. Twas a comedy of errors though from both players although tbf Jones redeemed himself with a quality clearance to steal the frame. 

  12. 1 minute ago, money44 said:

    what are you even talking about bro .. I am crushing my bets.. You don't know what I'm risking.. I have the most money I've had in 10 years right now. You are telling me I"m betting too many underdogs, and yet I"m cashing 11/1 outright winners you don't even know about.. 

    Give me some tennis analysis and not random robot talk please. If you do disagree with my bets thats fine, but tell me why.. I'm not looking to compete with you amigo.. I'm here to cooperate without ego's, and tear the bookies apart.  @four-leaf Yes I'm sure btw that the value is on Kuzmanov.. The match is a clear 50/50 chance in my opinion. 

    ok my dude, if it's working out for you then great, keep crushing it 😎

  13. 9 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

    @money44 are you sure you've thought enough about this? You're taking a pretty big risk.

    I agree. Without wishing to sound preachy, if you're treating the betting as anything other than a fun hobby, then that's not a good sign. Sure, you can make a little bit of money on the side if you play your cards right, but you can also lose big if you get too eager. Don't force it. Otherwise you'll start to take on unwise bets and before you know you'll be down quite a bit of money. My policy is I take a look at what people are saying on here, contribute my own thoughts here and there, and then put on a tennis bet or two every second or third day, and that does me, Overall I'm probably more or less breaking even this last while, but I enjoy the process. That approach works for me. Not saying you should do the same, but there's a lot to be said sometimes for stepping back and taking a breather. 🙂

  14. 2 hours ago, Fader said:

    Straight into the big one then. The World Championships. Quallies start today. Players I like at decent prices to qualify

    2pts Xu Si to qualify from Section 2 6/1 bet365
    2pts O.Lines
    to qualify from Section 3 9/2 paddypower
    1pt Lerclerq
    to qualify from Section 3 14/1 skybet
    1pt Cahill
    to qualify from Section 4 14/1 paddypower
    0.5pts G.Yang
    to qualify from Section 5 40/1 paddypower
    1pt D.Wells
    to qualify from Section 9 12/1 paddypower
    1pt J.White
    to qualify from Section 10 33/1 paddypower (go on Jimmy)
    0.5pts H.Pinhey
    to qualify from Section 11 40/1 paddypower
    0.5pts D.Emery
    to qualify from Section 12 28/1 paddypower
    0.5pts M.Judge
    to qualify from Section 13 175/1 paddypower
    0.5pts A.Hill
    to qualify from Section 14 25/1 skybet
    0.5pts A.Burden
    to qualify from Section 15 33/1 skybet
    0.5pts D.Lilley
    to qualify from Section 16 22/1 bet365


    Out of interest, as am following the games live, but Paddy Power doesn't appear to be updating their outright prices in play, despite some rank outsiders looking like they might win their opening matches. Check Stan Moody for instance, still out at 175 to 1, despite being 4-1 up. Same with 'O Neill, Pinhey and one or two others, Maybe worth a small punt on some of the long odds outsiders, especially the ones who are close to winning their first qualifying matches.

  15. 4 hours ago, amity said:

    I'm going to go with Yibing Wu to beat Diego Schwartmann at 4/11 typically with most bookmakers.

    Short enough odds true but Diego has been a shadow of himself in 2023. Wu meanwhile has had some decent results of late, and made the semis in Dallas recently, before losing 6-4 in the final set to Fritz. 


    Wu playing like a complete novice against a rejuvenated Diego ?‍♂️

    Hope none of you followed me. ?

  16. 25 minutes ago, Fader said:

    Van Veen one match from a 20/1 win and making SFs
    Pietreczko though makes SF for a guarenteed 50/1 winner.

    nice work, shame I didn't see your follow up post in time so I only had your initial selections, but yeh Van Veen went close.

    Also earlie ron Veenstra was in control vs Chisnall before getting beaten by a short head.

    Shame de Decker played Van Veen the round before the quarters, little bit unlucky there, but anyway well done on Pietreczko anyway!

  17. 2 minutes ago, Fader said:

    How many times have we picked Ross Smith. Ugh

    Yup, and again he benefited from an opponent bottling it. From 6-5 up, Anderson really should have gone on to win after breaking Smith's throw. Instead he hands it right back to Smith next leg and pretty much threw in the towel after that. 

  18. 5 minutes ago, Fader said:

    6-5 up. 2 match darts for D8 and he hits 11! 

    ugh, soon as it went deciding leg, you knew. No bottle at all from Schindler.

    Shocking indeed, three match darts, Smith didn't even play well but Schindler who was the better player overall I thought, manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory ?‍♂️

  19. Saw Burnett beating Price, aside from his finishing, which is very good, Burnett is not all that great, Wright as usual these days was brilliant at times and shocking at other times, so inconsistent. Can't see Burnett going any further unless VdB doesn't show up.

  20. 10 minutes ago, 888888 said:

    I am thinking Murphy wins it , -1,5 frame odds are a bit too low but -2,5 is a bit risky so I am hesitating which to take

    With the extra pressure on Rob, I'd say Murphy has to be the bet here imo.

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