Mindfulness

I can see the logic since Palace haven't scored a goal this season and lost all our matches + Man Utd one of the strongest teams in the league but surely Man Utd to win to nil @ 7/10 is uninspiring price, to me it does not look big value even though it's a rational and logical play.
Can't really comment on Moscow game affecting win to nil outcome other than Man Utd seemed to comfortably win which is surely better for their condition than any other outcome from said game. Always have to look at injuries and absences before a new match anyway, I would say listen to manager's presser comments but you have to take Mourinho's words with a pinch of salt, look at banana gate in Europa League last year ffs.
Palace have no recognizable centre-forward for Man Utd game but I don't think I need to tell you folks about the old 'no centre-forward repel theory' a theory which is both profound and far-reaching, some say dangerous.

I can see the logic since Palace haven't scored a goal this season and lost all our matches + Man Utd one of the strongest teams in the league but surely Man Utd to win to nil @ 7/10 is uninspiring price, to me it does not look big value even though it's a rational and logical play.
Can't really comment on Moscow game affecting win to nil outcome other than Man Utd seemed to comfortably win which is surely better for their condition than any other outcome from said game. Always have to look at injuries and absences before a new match anyway, I would say listen to manager's presser comments but you have to take Mourinho's words with a pinch of salt, look at banana gate in Europa League last year ffs.
Palace have no recognizable centre-forward for Man Utd game but I don't think I need to tell you folks about the old 'no centre-forward repel theory' a theory which is both profound and far-reaching, some say dangerous.

Bologna's organisation and defensive work has looked ok in the past few games, they haven't been able to get results because of their appauling chance conversion. Inter are clearly ahead on ELO ratings which is important metric but Bologna would be a decent team if they improved their chance conversion.
Inter are obvious favourites but Bologna should make life difficult for them. Markets are saying 60% chance of Inter victory tonight and that looks about right so I will avoid this game due to lack of clear value.
GL with your bets.

@Kengur2017 to Punters Lounge.
I don't know if this will be useful to you or not but I have written down some things that are important to bear in mind if you want to take betting seriously:
 
Psychology
 
 
First of all, if you do not have the correct mentality then you will not be able to develop into a professional bettor.
‘Tilt’ or ‘Gambling rage’ is one of the first major obstacles that needs to be overcome if you are serious about betting. Tilt is a term usually associated with poker but it can apply to any form of betting:
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)
 
Tilt affects all people to some degree, some only suffer from it mildly and can completely eliminate it with a combination of changes to lifestyle and perspective. At the other end of the scale you have chronically impatient degenerates with no self discipline or perspective, the affects gambling has on these people can be highly destructive.   
 
Ask yourself: “Do I have self discipline? Can I take a loss or a string of losses and still retain my composure? Do I react to losses by making rash or impulsive bets?”.
 
Patience and self discipline are key factors if you wish to become a professional bettor. In my view any professional bettor does not see his or her line of work as a get rich quick scheme. Unless you luck out with some kind of crazy accumulator or long odds punt it will take time to build your bankroll.
 
Hurrying to reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow can be a toxic mentality. It’s great to visualise a better future for yourself and creating a plan to achieve that but wanting something and wanting it right now will not aid your quest.
 
Do you enjoy the process of becoming a professional bettor? If you really do not enjoy the process at all then why are you devoting your time and energy to it in the first place? Obviously the goal is to make money but you shouldn’t try to make money from something you really don’t like as it will inevitably compromise your ability to execute the process effectively.
 
You have to enjoy the process of getting there and you have to enjoy the process of learning. Never think you know it all, because believe me no-one does. The road to becoming a professional bettor is a constant process of learning and improving, the path is not smooth and chances are there will be setbacks.
 
If and when setbacks occur can you maintain your self discipline and motivation?
 
 
Bankroll Management
 
 
Obviously your betting bankroll needs to be completely segregated from all your other forms of expenditure. Your ability to pay the bills cannot be dependent on how well your betting career is doing – especially if you have a family.
 
Set aside only what you can afford to loose as your initial betting bankroll, then understand and accept that it cannot be used for anything other than betting.
 
Even if you have only set aside a relatively small amount of money for your initial bankroll you must still treat that money with respect. If you want to take betting seriously then a bet must never seem frivolous.
 
One of the first objectives of any serious bettor is to never go broke (loose their entire betting bankroll). The partitioning of your bankroll into individual bets must be sustainable.
 
A sensible way to grow your bankroll over the long term is through compounding:
 
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/corporate-finance/3/discounted-cash-flow/compounding.aspx
 
Partition your results over quarterly or annual periods then incorporate the profits from the latest period into your staking structure.
 
For example:
 
You have an initial bankroll of $5000 which is divided into 40 individual fixed stake bets of $125 (2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 1 you make a profit of $1000 so total bankroll is now $6000.
 
Year 2 - Your fixed stake bet would be $150 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 2 you make a profit of $1200 – total bankroll now $7200.
 
Year 3 - Fixed stake would be $180 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)… and so on and so on.
 
By using compounding you can exponentially grow your bankroll in a safe and sustainable way. It will require patience and discipline, especially to begin with, but if you are consistently profitable then I would advocate it as a good way to grow your bankroll.
 
Sustainability
 
 
 
 
When it comes to sustainability as a career, one of the main questions is “Where can I get my bets on?”. Bookmakers are no fools, if you are a consistently profitable bettor then sooner or later you will get limited or banned – nothing you can do as it’s in the terms and conditions you agree to in order to bet with them.
 
One way to negate this problem is to have accounts with lots of different bookmakers and rotate your bets. It’s generally a good idea to have accounts with different bookmakers as you want to take advantage of different offers and prices etc. Despite this, rotating your bets with different vendors could still be problematic in the long term if you are consistently profitable.
 
 
Betting exchanges is the way to go if you don’t want to get banned or limited. On an exchange you’re betting against other bettors with the exchange operating as the middle man who matches up both sides of a bet. The exchange makes its money from charging commission for each bet made, usually between 2-5% (very reasonable in my opinion).
 
The main problems you will face with an exchange are:
 
Does it have the market you wish to bet on?
 
Does the market you wish to bet on have enough liquidity to get your bet matched?
 
Your access to betting exchanges will vary depending on what country you live in. Some of the main ones are:
 
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/
 
https://www.matchbook.com/
 
https://www.pinnacle.com/
 
https://www.sbobet.com/
 
https://smarkets.com/
 
If you’re not sure on who to bet with then ask around on this forum and check bookmaker review sites. Always do your research on the various operators and keep appraised of how they’re progressing. If you want betting to become your business then you have a responsibility to follow the industry at large and pay attention to new developments.
 
Never leave excess money in an online account for longer than you have to. Your bank should be the safest place to store the core of your funds – distribute them to the various exchanges and bookmakers only when necessary. This will help minimise your exposure if an operator goes bust or they inexplicably transfer your funds to bongo bongo land.
 
 
Methodology
 
 
 
From reading your post I suspect this is the area you wish to learn most about. Personally I have no special system to offer you, no low risk to high reward strategy, no promises of gold and jewels untold.
 
The phrase ‘There’s a million ways to make a million dollars’ also applies to betting. The various methods and strategies you could adopt to become consistently profitable from betting are too varied and too numerous to catalogue in a single post.  
 
Ultimately betting is about finding errors in the pricing of an event. If you believe a market has priced something incorrectly you can take advantage of it. Generally speaking, sports betting markets are not stupid. They evaluate outcomes with efficiency but this does not mean they never make mistakes. Your job is to capitalise on those mistakes at every opportunity. This requires diligence and dedication, you must always be on the lookout for opportunities in the market.
 
The more knowledge you have on a sport / subject, the more you can spot the opportunities in the market when they present themselves.
 
Specialising in a particular sport will help you, it should be a sport that you like watching and can watch regularly in order to gain qualitative information:
 
https://www.simplypsychology.org/qualitative-quantitative.html
 
Preferably it will be a sports market which is covered by the betting exchanges with enough liquidity to match your bets.
 
Personally I believe it’s important to develop your own betting strategies rather than follow or rely on other peoples. What if you are following someone else’s betting strategy but you do not really understand it and that person then disappears? You probably wouldn’t have learnt much and would be back at square one. Someone may very well come along on this thread and say “Hey Kengur, I have a great betting system that you might want to follow” and it might indeed be a good system but if you can’t fathom what’s behind it then you’re not really going to advance as a bettor. If you want to be ‘professional’ at something you have to be independent and generate your own ideas. Never rely on others to spoon feed you as it’s not sustainable over the long term.
 
Punters Lounge is a great site in my opinion – use it. I have learnt a lot from seeing how other people do things over the years on here, there’s lots of useful information on these boards. Just don’t expect anyone to wave a magic wand and make you rich overnight – the world seldom works like that.

Bologna's organisation and defensive work has looked ok in the past few games, they haven't been able to get results because of their appauling chance conversion. Inter are clearly ahead on ELO ratings which is important metric but Bologna would be a decent team if they improved their chance conversion.
Inter are obvious favourites but Bologna should make life difficult for them. Markets are saying 60% chance of Inter victory tonight and that looks about right so I will avoid this game due to lack of clear value.
GL with your bets.

No doubt the Brighton folk will approve as he's always got something stuffed up his arsse.

Good work mate.
Chievo V Atalanta comes in to make it a profitable round.
Be interesting to see if we can find anything from the tricky midweek round.

From the makers of 'Much ado about Pulis' and 'How To Loose A Manager In 10 Days' comes the movie event of the decade next 12-36 hours.
"You'd be bat shit crazy to get involved" - Mark Kermode
"It'll have you crying into your clackers" - LGBT & Hove Albion Weekly
"Fucking Fantastic" - Harry Redknapp
 

AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 YEARS
Directed by Steve Parish
Characters maybe subject to change, all players purchased before transfer deadline day will be deemed surplus to requirements,  5 year plans need not apply.

From the makers of 'Much ado about Pulis' and 'How To Loose A Manager In 10 Days' comes the movie event of the decade next 12-36 hours.
"You'd be bat shit crazy to get involved" - Mark Kermode
"It'll have you crying into your clackers" - LGBT & Hove Albion Weekly
"Fucking Fantastic" - Harry Redknapp
 

AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 YEARS
Directed by Steve Parish
Characters maybe subject to change, all players purchased before transfer deadline day will be deemed surplus to requirements,  5 year plans need not apply.

Ok mate but you can be sure peeps will end up posting bets from the current round in next rounds thread. I've seen it happen before man AND YOU WEREN'T THERE MAN, YOU WEREN'T THERE!!!

ELO ratings will only be affected if teams play two or more games home or away in a row. @Sir Puntalot, the big chief, is keen for us to have the topics up quicker so we can get stuck straight into the action when the previous round finishes.

Newcastle Utd V Stoke City



X @ 3.3 Betfair (Exchange)


There’s not much between these teams generally speaking and I feel a lot of Newcastle games will be decided by fine margins this season. Benitez can obtain surprise results in certain matches but do Newcastle have enough firepower to overcome middle or low ranking opposition in home games?


Stoke have some quality and a few match winners but they’re not the most pragmatic of sides and you’d feel their game management will be put to the test here.


A difficult match to call and the two teams may just cancel each other out. Asian lines look like they’re in the right ball park so I will go for X.

 
West Bromwich Albion V West Ham Utd



X @ 3.3 Betfair (Exchange)
Another two sides where there is little daylight at present; ELO difference for last 2 average is just 2.50.



Hard to call a winner from these two teams and West Ham are yet to draw in the league this season so it’s X for me.

To be honest mate I have no idea, just have to wait to see what develops.
I'm just chilling till the storm blows over

@Sir Puntalot
Yeh that makes sense as there isn't a big disparity between the two teams quality wise.
I've read some reports and it sounds like Milan need to work on their game management. Lazio obviously playing together as a unit for much longer. Teething problems for Milan me thinks, will be interesting to see how they respond in Europa League this week.
 

What will shock you even more is the "performance ratings" on the Lazio v Milan match. Once they update, you'll see Lazio were flattered bigtime by the scoreline, which is why I created the ratings to spot things like that.

Yeh I don't think Napoli @ 1.36 offered any meaningful value tonight so if you swerved it was the right thing to do. Bologna shut them down for the majority of the game but perhaps the home side became exhausted from Napoli's 'mental overloads' and somehow the away side ended up winning 0-3 with some late goals. Napoli were impressive tonight in the sense that they retained their composure in a tough game, their preparation, know-how and mentality is very strong.
ELO ratings looking accurate even at this early stage which is impressive. Only real shock was Lazio V Milan, that was a crazy scoreline, need to investigate further.
 

The biggest worry for City is their keeper, neither Ederson nor Bravo inspires confidence. If you wanna win the Premier League you have to have a strong keeper!!!
Maybe one of these two will improve, maybe they will sign someone else but at the momment it's a serious problem.

Southampton V West Ham Utd
West Ham Utd +1.0 AH @ 1.72 Betvictor
West Ham may have got a clanking against a very good Man U side last week but I do not see why the Hammers are priced so big in this instance.
Southampton were poor at home last season - 17th in the EPL home league with only 17 goals scored from 19 games played. Overall they are a good side and should finish in the top half this season but I do not really see how they've addressed their lack of goals in the summer window. Mauricio Pellegrino's side may have dominated the game last week V Swansea but they still seemed to lack that killer edge infront of goal.
For me West Ham have made some good signings in the summer window and you would feel it's only a matter of time before the teams fortunes start to improve. The game at Old Trafford was not so good but they came up against one of the best sides in the league which was firing on all cylinders. I do not expect to see such a disparity between Southampton and West Ham, infact they are two teams on a very similar level imo and I do not see much daylight between them.
West Ham seem to be a team that's capable of getting results on the road with the players they have, they won this fixture 1-3 back in February so hopefully that will stand them in good stead for Saturdays game. Kouyate and Lanzini are still out for the Hammers but I still don't think their absence justifies such a big asian line for the away side here. They still have a lot of players that can hurt Southampton and Michail Antonio returning will give them a further boost.
Manager Slaven Bilic says his team has trained well this week, let's see if this will translate into a positive result for the Hammers here.
 

Regarding the UK ELO Prediction Ratings in particular, it's 1 week short of where I get involved, which means they are slightly unbalanced at this point. Some teams will have played 2 home or 2 away matches and their opposition only 1 match, so their average rating will be slightly off until this weekend is complete. So just be careful and check the performance ratings to see the state of play until this weekend is complete. Once we have 2 weeks of home and away matches, we're off and running!  

Zaha is injured and wont play.

Opening round and need to watch as many games as possible.
I would advise folks not to get heavily involved with 1X2 or AH betting in gameweek 1.
Will try and post again later in the week as lots can happen in the transfer window between now and Saturday + injury news etc.

I'd be careful with labelling a whole division with the same tag, in fact I point blank would never do that.  
What I see is this:

Barnsley were vastly superior to Ipswich yet managed to lose the match, never mind win it!

Leeds were a goal superior to Preston, who were very average, yet didn't get the win.

Millwall and Reading should definitely have won their matches, but only managed to draw. 

All these teams, especially Barnsley, Millwall and Reading were worthy winners and should be noted.  

I think it's fair to say that Southampton are a bit short @ 1.7, no value at all from my perspective.
On the other hand, saying that Swansea should be valued @ 1.54 for this game, I mean, seriously?

I've edited the original post to now include the odds of National League North and National League South due to them becoming available. Will look to add the next tier down when they are displayed.

http://www.football-italia.net/106241/breaking-cassano-retires-again
http://www.football-italia.net/106242/setti-‘astonished-cassano’