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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Sep 30th & Oct 1st

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This next round of Premier League fixtures marks the entry into October which is the point we see results start to settle. I've noticed a fair few of you starting to earn some profit now as we get a better idea of what each team is like. This weekend we see the epic encounter of Chelsea versus Manchester City. A few other tight fixtures. Not the easiest week to bet on so let's work together and try to bash those bookies!

be an exciting one too.

@sajtion, @discipline, @Pipoca, @the bastardian, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @omch@, @the real slim shady, @Arkadi Manucharov, @Snoopdog, @allthethings, @JKos, @Pep004, @Torque, @AK1979, @Charon84, @dylanphan, @Kenton Schweppes, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @KingSoccertips, @seifer365, and @WinningAdvice, what are your tips for this round of matches?

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Two or three times a season the bookies jack up the odds because what's the point of betting if you don't win sweet fa when you do win?

So they'll make it tasty to keep us keen. They want us to think we have a decent chance every so often. This happened last week with the likes of Spurs Man U Celtic and Chelsea all at 1.7 or so.

This week it's back to normal. Don't be fooled by the odds on Liverpool or Everton. Newcastle have a good record against Liverpool and they have a tough match tomorrow night Champions League.

Everton same - Burnley have a week between games. Everton don't.

Burnley are workhorses. 

Edited by andrewcalo

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Submitted 4 out of 5 system plays

West Ham -0,5 AH

Manchester City  SU 2

Burnley X2

Stoke-Southampton DRAW

 

The one play I did not submit yet is the Newcastle-Liverpool ( Newcastle straight up or +0,75 AH for conservative) matchup.

I will see how they play during midweek and see if they can beat Spartak Moscow.I will note down if I play this on Thursday

Best of luck to all.

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As the real slim shady correctly has pointed out mid week games will cause fatigue to most of these usual favorites.

Chelsea also has a dog fight against Atletico on Wednesday night while Manchester City plays tommorow and will have an extra day of rest

Edited by JKos

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3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Anyone else getting on the Manchester United to win to nil bandwagon? Or will the midweek trip to Moscow sap their energy?

I can see the logic since Palace haven't scored a goal this season and lost all our matches + Man Utd one of the strongest teams in the league but surely Man Utd to win to nil @ 7/10 is uninspiring price, to me it does not look big value even though it's a rational and logical play.

Can't really comment on Moscow game affecting win to nil outcome other than Man Utd seemed to comfortably win which is surely better for their condition than any other outcome from said game. Always have to look at injuries and absences before a new match anyway, I would say listen to manager's presser comments but you have to take Mourinho's words with a pinch of salt, look at banana gate in Europa League last year ffs.

Palace have no recognizable centre-forward for Man Utd game but I don't think I need to tell you folks about the old 'no centre-forward repel theory' a theory which is both profound and far-reaching, some say dangerous.

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15 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Anyone else getting on the Manchester United to win to nil bandwagon? Or will the midweek trip to Moscow sap their energy?

Crystal Palace haven't score it what seems in ages.Will they get the monkey off their back this week?Personally I am staying away from this game though the -2 AH for Manchester United  is a system play of mine.

 

Win to nil is probably one of the most reasonable plays in this matchup

 

Edited by JKos

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Stoke City V Southampton

X @ 3.4 Bet365

A bit of a stick or twist game for these two teams. I feel neither will want to loose their last game before the international break - especially to a direct league competitor.

I don't see much daylight between these two in general and both parties may find it difficult to claim all 3pts from this contest.

Both sides have not been so ruthless and slightly toothless in recent games so I will go for X here.

 

West Bromwich Albion V Watford

X @ 3.25 Bet365

The ELO ratings are giving Watford nearly a full goal advantage but West Brom may prove too gritty and organised for Marco Silva's exuberant countering style to prove effective here.

In my view we have another fixture involving direct league competitors and I think it will be more difficult for Watford than metrics suggest.

West Brom have the tools and knowhow to disrupt but recent form has been shoddy so X seems to be the logical compromise in this situation.

Edited by Mindfulness

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Manchester United v Crystal Palace

Manchester United: Marouane Fellaini (5/1 m), Phil Jones (6/0 d), Anthony Martial (5/3 f, 2nd top scorer)(all doubtful), Michael Carrick (0/0 m), Paul Pogba (4/2 m), Zlatan Ibrahimovic (0/0 f), Marcos Rojo (0/0 d)

Crystal Palace: Timothy Fosu-Mensah (6/0 d, on loan from Manchester United), Christian Benteke (6/0 f), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (4/0 m), James Tomkins (3/0 d), Wilfried Zaha (1/0 m), Connor Wickham (0/0 f)

 

Stoke City v Southampton

Stoke City: Kevin Wimmer (2/0 d), Geoff Cameron (4/0 d)(both doubtful), Bruno Martins Indi (5/0 d), Ryan Shawcross (3/0 d, captain), Jakob Haugaard (0/0 g), Julien Ngoy (0/0 f), Stephen Ireland (0/0 m)

Southampton: Matt Targett (0/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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This is one of those game weeks - can you feel it? one of those weeks when reason and logic will get you nowhere.

Hence big upsets and big effort by sides who should have been performing better all season and choose to shine late before the international break.

I.E. Leicester, West Ham, Southampton, West Brom.

Edited by andrewcalo

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Man City are undefeated in their last 14 games in Premier League.

Man Utd have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 home games against Crystal Palace in all competitions.

You can find interesting 16 Football Betting Streaks for 30.09.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-30-09-2017

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EVerton under Koeman are just a joke. These are good players, playing badly, and it is down to the manager.

Koeman, de Boer, van Gaal all poor managers (with incredible agents). Playing this negative Dutch, sideways, backwards, sterile possession that does not work any more. The Netherlands have been left behind (I am Dutch), and they look useless. United under van Gaal were borderline unwatchable. Palace under de Boer, pathetic !

Fine, Koeman says it is unrealistic for EVerton to challenge for top 4 or 5. No problem, I fully agree. But, and it's a BIG BUT, they should be beating the lesser teams in the league, and the lesser teams in the Europa league.

I have watched them 4 times (all TV) this season. Against Man CIty they were useless. They held out for a draw, but 10 man City were unlucky, and ran them around. Against Atalanta in the Europa league they were demolished. Could have been 5-0 at half time. That 1st half performance was one of the worst I have seen from any team this year.  At Chelsea they were soundly beaten in every department. OK fair enough. IMO CHelsea are a top team. Last Thurs in Europa (at odds of 3 to 10 ffs), they can't beat the Cypriot GIANTS. Concede a ridic 88th minute goal (against 10 men), and then miss a tee'd up chance from 6 foot (free header) in injury time.

Now Everton are 7 to 10 to beat Burnley !. Seriously !!!  Burnley who are undefeated away against Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.  And now Everton are expected to win ? Insane !

 

Burnley are 2.25 DOUBLE CHANCE (away win or Draw)

Burnley to win is 6 (bet365)  

 

 

 

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Everton V Burnley

Burnley +1 AH @ 1.714 Matchbook

Fading Everton in this match seems to be public bet of the week and that always makes me feel uneasy but the metrics really do favour Burnley here.

Everton are in poor form right now, they lack a playmaker who can make the game from midfield and drive the team forward. Gueye, Schneiderlin and Davies all have tremendous energy and industry but it's hard to call any of them a playmaker. Upfront they lack a ruthless goalscorer and have to rely on inconsistent match winners such as Rooney and Sigurdsson.

Not only did Everton play on Thursday in Europa League, which is usually a drain, but they contrived to draw a game they should have won and now the Goodison faithful are starting to get lary. This does not bode well for the spirit level in home matches.

As for Burnley, I've been impressed with them away from home this season, they're strong defensively and make quick transitions to hit the opposition on the counter. The ELO ratings also favour Burnley in this fixture with a half goal advantage and Sean Dyche's team is either ahead or level on a lot of other important metrics.

To me it seems Burnley are just the kind of dogged and difficult opposition that Everton would rather not face at this momment in time. Everton have clear quality advantage in terms of personnel and their match winners can kill you from out of nowhere but I think Burnley on the +1 line offers a decent safety net given the circumstances which surround this match.

Ultimately it's a difficult game to call, Everton have a clear quality advantage but it's hard to ignore Burnley on such a big line in these circumstances. Will be interested to see how this one plays out.

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12 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Everton V Burnley

Burnley +1 AH @ 1.714 Matchbook

Fading Everton in this match seems to be public bet of the week and that always makes me feel uneasy but the metrics really do favour Burnley here.

Everton are in poor form right now, they lack a playmaker who can make the game from midfield and drive the team forward. Gueye, Schneiderlin and Davies all have tremendous energy and industry but it's hard to call any of them a playmaker. Upfront they lack a ruthless goalscorer and have to rely on inconsistent match winners such as Rooney and Sigurdsson.

Not only did Everton play on Thursday in Europa League, which is usually a drain, but they contrived to draw a game they should have won and now the Goodison faithful are starting to get lary. This does not bode well for the spirit level in home matches.

As for Burnley, I've been impressed with them away from home this season, they're strong defensively and make quick transitions to hit the opposition on the counter. The ELO ratings also favour Burnley in this fixture with a half goal advantage and Sean Dyche's team is either ahead or level on a lot of other important metrics.

To me it seems Burnley are just the kind of dogged and difficult opposition that Everton would rather not face at this momment in time. Everton have clear quality advantage in terms of personnel and their match winners can kill you from out of nowhere but I think Burnley on the +1 line offers a decent safety net given the circumstances which surround this match.

Ultimately it's a difficult game to call, Everton have a clear quality advantage but it's hard to ignore Burnley on such a big line in these circumstances. Will be interested to see how this one plays out.

Everton have a muppet for a manager, and that negates any quality advantage in players

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Grise lightning 1.50 Hamilton 11/2 Ladbroke 
    • Spanish star . 1.40 brighton thanking you
    • Lightning Attack   1:20    Hamilton Park    7/1 @ Bet365 
    • Regarding Red Star game....huge miss is that we are playing without fans.They are our 12 player and they always make great atmosphere. Their will be one major change in line up...new player Jonathan Cafu (Ludogorets,Bordeux) will start.Last season he hardly play for Bordeux but I do remember this guy who destroy us in CL Qualification 2016. He is very fast and powerfull but I dont know what to expect since he hardly play last year. Salzburg never play in CL and I think that main sponsor Red Bull is now concentrate on RB Leipzig,so best players from Salzburg goes to play in bundes league.  RS: Borjan-Rodin,Degenek,Stojkovic,Savic-Jovicic,Krsticic-Radonjic,Ben,Cafu-Stojiljkovic Tough game to predict so I will probably skip this one. GL
    • 20 minutes driving to Madrid. A quarter of La Liga teams  
    • You are welcome!  And my question was more directed toward the short preview for the tips, which you clarify! nice! Hope you live near a city with a La Liga team, you might be able to go to a match. Almost two years ago I went to Butarque (Quite small stadium, but the environment was quite peculiar).  
    • I think PSV holds value, they started winning their local league and mostly the team have a lot of young and eager players, the thing is that the draw would not be seeing as such a bad results with the second leg at home. Yet I feel they have an edge, also on form Hirving Lozano has started with two goals, one in each match, and for sure will look to continue showing his quality, in this that will be his debut in Champions League and made up for an regular World Cup. I agree with @StevieDay1983 with regards that Benfica will get the win, but the odd is very low for the home win, and meanwhile is true that PAOK has deserved to get to this stage, it is up to see how he will handle the multiples options in front that Benfica can throw at them. Fortunately for PAOK, Benfica reinforcement Nicolas Castillo is out, but still Benfica has plenty of scoring options. I prefer just to watch the match.
    • Thank you, @four-leaf & @Xcout for your warm welcome! Yes, all my picks are well analysed, I don't bet random picks.  I have been betting for more than 10 years and in the last 4 I have been following only La Liga. Moreover, I live in Spain and this can be sometimes a big plus for inside news. If I have enough time, I will also post a short preview of each tip posted. 
    • I am fancying Ipswich Town with asian handicap, As @StevieDay1983 have stated Frank Lampard does not seem fit for the job at Derby. And besides the away win at the opener, in the next two matches has been able to at least draw, despite scoring in all of them. The win in EFL Cup smooth things, but the double header against Hull City (EFL CUP and Championship) might proved to much, and more because Hull City are winless to his moment. The ELO Ratings back the away win also, so that might be something. I agree with @Stevecw that Rotherdam is looking good, and there also I would take the asian handicap, because meanwhile Hull City have not won ,they have gotten two away draws and remains unbeaten at away. Together with the ELO Rating is with Hull City, so for me the asian handicap covers in this case. Leeds start has been superb with four wins, three in Championship and one in EFL Cup, yet Swansea at home might break that positive streak, might it win the match, that is something else.  There was a post somewhere about the performance of the relegated in the championship, therefore I would prefer to avoid this match.
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