Mindfulness

Ok cool, the figure was somewhere in the region of 7,250 + some of the other mods were going to recommend me for the victoria cross...
 
 
Ok it was in the low 380's or 390's.

No it doesn't seem to have worked.
I'm calling the police.

A decent Saturday with 3 biggish priced winners although again I failed to get a winning Nap. Just the two leagues in action this mid week and all my four bets are in the National League.
Boreham Wood v Chesterfield
The home side have yet to lose at home this season and the away side have now lost 5 on the bounce, but I am backing Chesterfield to win this. Martin Allen has already said Chesterfield can't win the title and whilst I don't think they will either, it seems rather early to be throwing the towel in especially given the league is pretty tight still. Each game they have lost it has only been by 1 goal so they aren't miles away and they played well against Orient on Saturday. They will get back to winning ways sooner rather than later and it might well be here. Wood have won the same amount of games as their opponents and they have beaten Dagenham, Halifax and Maidstone so apart from Halifax they have beaten two sides in the bottom six at the moment. The look weaker than last season and drawing to a poor Braintree team on Saturday was hardly a great effort. Marathon are 129/50 about an away win and that looks huge to me as I would have it under 2/1 myself.
Dover v Ebbsfleet
A Kent derby here and I think Ebbsfleet can add to Dover's struggles. Dover have only won once all season (annoyingly it was the 4-3 win over Havant which stopped me from winning a rather nice amount of money!) and Chris Kinnear looks like he is going to have his work cut out to keep them in the division. They have only picked up one other point and they are really struggling at the moment. Ebbsfleet lost to Fylde on Saturday, but given they are looking genuine title contenders it was hardly a bad thing and Ebbsfleet looked good themselves anyway. Both of those sides were ante-post picks and I certainly wouldn't want to be ruling out Ebbsfleet just yet. They certainly look in much better shape than Dover at the moment and 6/4 (Skybet and Marathon) looks a fair price about an away win.
Hartlepool v Barrow
Hartlepool are beginning to click having won 4 on the bounce now after not picking up a victory in their first 3 games. Granted their fixture list has been fairly kind, but this game looks another good opportunity for 3 points. Barrow have surprised me by how well they have done, but most of their good performances have been at home and they have only picked up a point in 4 away games so far. That was a good performance against Leyton Orient, but it does stand out like a sore thumb when compared to their other efforts away from Cumbria. I think the home side should be odds on for this so 113/100 with Marathon looks a cracking price and hopefully they can be a winning Nap.
Maidstone v Sutton
I was surprised Maidstone sacked Jay Saunders and it made little sense to me. He had done so well for them and it is hard to see how anyone could do any better given the squad they have at the moment. They looked short of confidence on Saturday against Gateshead who were all over them for 90 minutes but could only score a late goal to win the game. Sutton played in a poor game at the weekend when they drew against Halifax. Paul Doswell suggested it was because of a heavy schedule so that is a concern if it was, but Sutton are better than Maidstone and even if they aren't at their best they should have enough to win this. Sutton haven't won in 4, but they have only lost once all season and this looks a good chance to get back to winning ways. 6/5 with Marathon is a fair price I think although if they go odds on I think the value will have gone.
Chesterfield 1pt @ 129/50 with Marathon
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet and Marathon
Hartlepool 2.5pts @ 113/100 with Marathon
Sutton 1pt @ 6/5 with Marathon

Sassuolo V Genoa
Genoa +0.50 AH @ 1.82 Bet365
I don't really understand the discrepancy in valuation between these two sides as I have this game being much closer than the odds suggest.
Sassuolo were fairly witless at home last season, they only won 4 games at the Mapei Stadium and had the 3rd worst home record in the division. Genoa actually collected more points on the road than Sassuolo did at home in 2017/2018.
What's changed over the summer? In my view not a lot. Sassuolo have bought in good players during the summer window but I still feel they lack someone who can score good numbers in the centre-forward position. Sassuolo are not really the team to back when the onus is on them to make the game and win the 3pts. They're more suited to countering and exploiting opponents who press onto them.
Genoa are a tough nut to crack under Davide Ballardini and this season they have fresh impetus upfront with the likes of Krzysztof Piatek and Christian Kouame. I feel Genoa can make things difficult for Sassuolo here and I'm suprised you can get the away side on the +0.50 line for this match.

Fiorentina V Udinese
Both teams to score: Yes @ 1.85 William Hill
Fiorentina are arguably stronger in attack this season but weaker defensively. Key defensive midfielder Milan Badelj was sold in the summer window along with Carlos Sanchez. Goalkeeper Marco Sportiello, who I rate, was loaned out to Frosinone and replaced with the promising yet inexperienced Alban Lafont. Fiorentina's midfield 3 looks too open for my liking while a propensity to play the offside trap may backfire against a team like Udinese.
Udinese are an interesting side under new coach Julio Velazquez, they're already strong at counters with players like Rodrigo de Paul and Kevin Lasagna but Velazquez has made their play more dynamic with unusual passing angles. I think Udinese have the necessary qualities to expolit Fiorentina's weaknesses so I think the away side have a decent chance of getting on the scoresheet here.
Fiorentina put 6 past Chievo in their last home game and their attack looks very strong indeed. It will be a task for Udinese not to conceed here. Both teams like to shoot and both get a good amount on target. 1.85 for BTTS looks generous here as I would make it more like 1.65.
 

Monday wasn't great with just a couple of winners of the 6. It is pretty rare for a Nap to be so well beaten and it is surprising South Shields lost so heavily. Hopefully for ante-post reasons it can be a kick up the arse for them and they can improve. Anyway onto this week and I have 5 bets for Saturday.
Chesterfield v Leyton Orient (National League)
Chesterfield got off to a flying start and even went into favourites for the title after winning their first 3 games. Things have not gone well since though and they have lost their other 4 games so far this season. That has meant they are now a double figure price for the title. Their visitors on Saturday are now shorter for the title as they remain one of the 3 unbeaten sides in the division. I would certainly rather back Orient for the title from what I have seen so far and the 23/10 with Sportingbet to win this match looks too big to me. 
Dagenham & Redbridge v Salford (National League)
How on earth are Salford available at odds against to beat a poor Dagenham side is beyond me. Dagenham might be about to be taken over which is great news for the club and I imagine their will be investment made if it goes through, but that is clearly not going to help them for this game against the favourites for the title. After a shaky start they have now won 3 of their last 4 and they drew the other. As I mentioned last week they have plenty of goals in them and Dagenham have conceded 2 goals in their last 6 games. What is also strange is that the 5 games they have lost in that spell have all been 2-1 defeats.So with Salford also yet to keep a clean sheet I couldn't put anyone off backing Salford to win and BTTS as clearly the stats point to that. Salford look like they will only carry on improving and they should be about 4/6 to win this match for me and it should really be their first away win of the season.
Chippenham v Concord (National League South)
Might seem odd putting up a team who lost 5-0 last time as a bet, but based on what Concord had done previously this season that has to go down as a bit of a freak result. Both Concord and Welling were teams I put up for the title so at least they were beaten by a decent side and one I think is better than their early results suggests. Concord had only conceded twice prior to that game so they should be more than capable of bouncing back here and they look a big price at 11/4 to do so at Chippenham. Chippenham are lacking a bit of consistency although they did beat Billericay which forced Tamplin to sack the manager a week ago. Chippenham have strengthened this season so on their day they will be capable of results like that, but overall Concord are the better team and they should be under 2/1 to win this.
Woking v Billericay (National League South)
Speaking of Billericay they travel to Woking for a massive game at the top of the table. Billericay are still to confirm that Tamplin sacked the manager last week and it didn't seem to go down well with most of their fans. My feeling is it was part of his plan as he is desperate to get a big name in and so he sacked him at the first chance. To be fair to Billericay they did come from 2 down to beat St Albans on Monday even if they were helped by St Albans going down to 10 men. I still think Billericay are the best team in the league and I am not sure Woking are as good as their results suggest, but I am backing Woking here. Alan Dowson is a shrewd manager and he could well out think the current Billericay management team in the tactics department which might turn out to be enough. Woking are drifting and 9/4 (Marathon) about a team at home who are 2nd favourites for the title is just silly really especially as it could be the right time to be playing Billericay.
Darlington v Alfreton (National League North)
Alfreton are showing they could be a title contender this season and have won 4 on the bounce now. They beat another one of my ante-post tips Southport on Monday and really impressive in doing so. Darlington on the other-hand have only won once all season and look like they could pull up a bit short again this season. I think Alfreton should be heading the market for this so Marathon's 193/100 is well worth taking.
Leyton Orient 1pt @ 23/10 with Sportingbet
Salford 3pts @ 28/25 with Marathon
Concord 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet 365
Woking 1pt @ 9/4 with Marathon
Alfreton 1pt @ 193/100 with Marathon

She'll come crawling back once she sees how many reputation points I've gained, they always do.

Victoria Cross? Maybe that was an ex girlfriend.

Count adjusted.  

Ok cool, the figure was somewhere in the region of 7,250 + some of the other mods were going to recommend me for the victoria cross...
 
 
Ok it was in the low 380's or 390's.

What's happened is the original transfer to Invision Power Board (current forum software) will have somehow imported the old VBulletin "thanks" as reputation points too, so I can't get those back.
Happy to manually adjust anyone's counts if they put what they were here.  

No it doesn't seem to have worked.
I'm calling the police.

Hey guys,
For some reason I've lost roughly 150 rep points overnight, I think other members have been affected aswell such as ralphie7.
Guess it's somekind of technical issue but I thought I better let you know.
Cheers.
 

Not me, it was a bit of a crazy one mate. I managed to watch most of it, learnt a few things about both sides and hopefully we can capitalise on that in the comming rounds.

@StevieDay1983
Don't really know what to make of Roma V Atalanta, it's an interesting one. Gasperini says Atalanta won't get distracted by the Europa League 2nd leg game but let's see what his starting eleven for Roma will be. Atalanta won this fixture last season, some maybe tempted to take away side on +1 AH line but I will avoid due to murk factor.
I'm just trying to watch a few games at the moment and see what I can learn. GL with your selections for this round, you had a nice odds against winner with Napoli last week.
 
 

A profitable day again on Saturday which was good and hopefully we can continue the good run on Monday. Sorry for this being briefer than usual and mentioning no prices but I am a bit short of time.
Aldershot v Sutton (National League)
I fear for Aldershot. They have looked miles away so far this season and Gary Waddock's mention after Saturday's game that there are things going on that the general public don't know about is really concerning. Only a guess, but I wonder if there are money issues there again. Whatever it is though it is clearly having an effect on the pitch. Sutton have looked decent so far and looked like they will be in the play-off hunt again. The price looks too high to me and Sutton should be favs.
Eastleigh v Ebbsfleet (National League)
Eastleigh's manager was getting in the excuses on Saturday for this game as he mentioned after Saturday's match that the league were crazy to fit so many games into such a short space of time, although if we see a repeat of last seasons weather he will be glad they have! Ebbsfleet are looking pretty strong and it was another good performance on Saturday. Again they probably should be favourites for this.
Oxford City v Wealdstone (National League South)
Another away side who are too big a price and should be favs. I had City on my shortlist for Saturday, but they were forced to have the sub keeper play up front in the win over St Albans and that put me off and I am glad it did as they had to rely on a late goal to get a point against Weston. Wealdstone look good and the draw against Concord was another example of how well they look likely to go this season. They should be able to get 3 points here.
Slough v Dulwich (National League South)
I am chancing Dulwich at a big price after seeing them on Saturday. They lost 1-0 to Gloucester although it was through poor keeping at a corner more than anything. To be fair Gloucester defended well and the keeper for me was man of the match, but I thought Dulwich deserved at least a point from the game. They are still getting used to the league, but they are creating chances and look threatening. They will click at some stage and I think they are more then capable of a top half finish. Slough have been a bit inconsistent so far and losing to East Thurrock on Saturday was a poor result.
Wingate & Finchley v Enfield (Bostik Premier)
Enfield look a big price here to carry on their strong start to the season. They were one of my ante-post picks so it is pleasing to see them start so well and they put 6 past Burgess Hill on Saturday. This game will be tougher, but if they are in the same form they have been so far then they can pick up another 3 points.
North Ferriby v South Shields (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
I am amazed South Sheilds are odds against for this. North Ferriby look like they could do a Hyde and drop right down to Step 4 having been at Step 1. They have not looked good so far and obviously South Shields are strong favourites to win the title. They bounced back from the Farsely defeat where they had 9 men for over an hour to have a comfortable win on Saturday. It will be disappointing if they can't win this.
Sutton 2pts
Ebbsfleet 1pt
Wealdstone 2pts
Dulwich 1pt
Enfield 1pt
South Shields 3pts

Another good day last Saturday with 4 of the 7 winning although there were a couple of very close misses with Slough and Welling. On the other side of the coin though Hartley Witney scored a very late winner. I have 6 bets for Saturday.
Maidenhead v Maidstone (National League)
A bit of a strange choice for a live game by BT Sport this, but I think the away team offer value. I don't think either team are that good and can see both being involved in a relegation scrap, but I do think that Maidstone have shown more than their hosts so far this season. Maidenhead have only got 1 point so far and that was in a draw against Dagenham who also have only picked up a point. That sums both teams up for me and Maidenhead were again comfortably beaten by Hartlepool on Saturday 2-1. I took on Maidstone last week, but they did well to see off an in form Barrow 1-0 and they managed to beat Dagenham earlier in the season as well as picking up a point against Hartlepool. For me Maidstone have the edge here and I am surprised they are as big as 57/25 for this. It probably wont be a classic, but hopefully we can come away with a profit.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Hartlepool (National League)
Ironically given these two teams feature heavily in the above preview they also play each other this weekend and again I fancy the away team. It isn't a great surprise to see Dagenham struggling given they have no money and I have my doubts about manager Peter Taylor. They will do well to stay up this season whereas Hartlepool should really be looking at trying to get into the play-offs. They have had a frustrating start, but they have only lost one of their first five games (to Ebbsfleet) so it hasn't been a total disaster. They also hadn't won until that win over Maidenhead last weekend though which will disappoint the fans. They do however look a better side than their hosts and I would make them favourites for this so the 191/100 with Marathon makes plenty of appeal.
Ebbsfleet v Aldershot (National League)
Aldershot look a long way from the teams who reached the play-offs in the last couple of seasons. They have only scored twice this term and both of those came in their only victory against Dagenham. I am sure Gary Waddock will turn it around, but it may take a bit longer yet and I think Ebbsfleet can beat them on Saturday. I put Ebbsfleet up last week and they beat Barnet 3-0 and Barnet have been every bit as disappointing as Aldershot. Ebbsfleet have lost their two home games so far, but they came against Chesterfield and Sutton and they probably deserved something from both matches. This match should be easier and on current form you would make them odds on to win this so the 11/10 with Betfred is fair enough.
Havant & Waterlooville v Salford (National League)
Regular readers will know it is fairly rare to look outside of the win/draw/win market and I don't often tip up at odds on either. I am however doing both with this game. I did have Havant down on my shortlist to back as they can score goals and Salford still look ropey at the back. However I thought Salford would be around 11/10 and they aren't so it makes it a no bet for me on that side of things. What does appeal though is over 2.5 goals at 5/6 with Marathon. Both teams have scored in all of Salford's games so far and they look rather suspect in defence at the moment. 3 of their games have finished 2-1 and they were the right side of a 5 goal thriller against Chesterfield last week. Havant on the other hand have been involved in two 4-3 games the last twice as well as a 3-0 defeat on the opening day of the season. Both sides have goals in them and both sides concede for fun thus I think the over 2.5 goals price should be shorter (cue a goalless draw!).
Blyth Spartans v Chorley (National League North)
Chorley are now favourites for the title and I am not surprised.They have been really impressive so far winning 5/5 and they are yet to concede a goal. Apart from beating Chester 8-1 Blyth have really struggled this season and have only picked up a point from their other 4 games. They lost 3-1 at Alfreton last week and they have a bit of an injury crisis in defence at the moment. Given Chorley's defence you would think 1 would be enough and Blyth have already conceded 10 goals this season. 133/100 with Marathon looks a very attractive bet.
Wealdstone v Concord (National League South)
Probably the game of the day in the division and although the Concord price has come in I still think the current price is attractive enough. Sportingbet are 31/10 and then Bet365 are 14/5. Obviously we are talking about two really good sides and the home side did us a big favour last week when beating Dartford 3-0. Concord though have won 4 and drawn 1 of their five games and that draw came against Billericay. It obviously is no gimmie, but Concord should be more like 15/8 so in a game they are more than capable of winning I have to back them.
Maidstone 1pt @ 57/25 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1.5pts @ 191/100 with Marathon
Ebbsfleet 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfred
Havant v Salford over 2.5 goals 2.5pts @ 5/6 with Marathon
Chorely 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Concord 1pt @ 31/10 with Sportingbet

Manchester City V Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town +3.0 AH @ 1.724 Matchbook
I don't think Huddersfield's overall performance was that bad in the 0-3 home loss to Chelsea at the weekend. It was more a case of it being the opening game and one or two individuals weren't quite sharp enough. Chelsea pretty much capitalised on all the Huddersfield errors and so the scoreline was somewhat skewed in my view.
The Terriers will have to cut out the mistakes quickly because it's City at the Etihad next, a fixture that would have most teams quaking in their boots but perhaps not David Wagner's side. Let's not forget that The Terriers came away with a fine 0-0 from this fixture only three months ago. So what's changed so radically over the summer to hand Huddersfield such a big line here? In my view not a lot. Mahrez aside, City have not improved significantly. Huddersfield are pretty much the same with a couple of additions to strengthen the squad and increase competition. Perhaps the fact that City dispatched Arsenal with such ease in the opening round puts down a marker but the dynamics of that game will be different to this one.
Much to the relief of Sam Allardyce, Huddersfield won't try to play out from the back here. It'll probably be 5-3-2 with a low block and some direct countering. If Huddersfield stay focused for the entirety of the match then they can limit City and prevent a cricket score.
Key midfielder Kevin De Bruyne is unavailable for City through injury while cohort David Silva is lacking match fitness after the World Cup. For me this seems like a good opportunity to take on City via a no-nonsense team on a massive AH line.
 

Manchester City V Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town +3.0 AH @ 1.724 Matchbook
I don't think Huddersfield's overall performance was that bad in the 0-3 home loss to Chelsea at the weekend. It was more a case of it being the opening game and one or two individuals weren't quite sharp enough. Chelsea pretty much capitalised on all the Huddersfield errors and so the scoreline was somewhat skewed in my view.
The Terriers will have to cut out the mistakes quickly because it's City at the Etihad next, a fixture that would have most teams quaking in their boots but perhaps not David Wagner's side. Let's not forget that The Terriers came away with a fine 0-0 from this fixture only three months ago. So what's changed so radically over the summer to hand Huddersfield such a big line here? In my view not a lot. Mahrez aside, City have not improved significantly. Huddersfield are pretty much the same with a couple of additions to strengthen the squad and increase competition. Perhaps the fact that City dispatched Arsenal with such ease in the opening round puts down a marker but the dynamics of that game will be different to this one.
Much to the relief of Sam Allardyce, Huddersfield won't try to play out from the back here. It'll probably be 5-3-2 with a low block and some direct countering. If Huddersfield stay focused for the entirety of the match then they can limit City and prevent a cricket score.
Key midfielder Kevin De Bruyne is unavailable for City through injury while cohort David Silva is lacking match fitness after the World Cup. For me this seems like a good opportunity to take on City via a no-nonsense team on a massive AH line.
 

Just a general update for anyone considering AFC Fylde or Solihull Moors this weekend. I watched them play each other in midweek. Was very impressed with Fylde's ability to change the play when necessary. A very versatile unit and having kept Danny Rowe must be a very good shout for at least a play off spot. Solihull are a big, direct and efficient side. That's it. They are good at what they do but will more often than not be beaten by the Division's better sides.
Not seen the odds but would strongly favour Fylde over Dover tomorrow. Intriguing game at Solihull where I would take Sutton on a plus.
In Vanarama South I think stuttering St. Albans will have enough over Oxford City.
I'm off to Bath City v Dulwich Hamlet where I expect the Romans to sneak a win.

So the mid-week action was superb with 5 out of 6 winners. Obviously it was frustrating to be so close to all 6 winning given Havant were 3-1 up at one stage, but at the end of the day singles are were the day to day money is to be made and anything else is just a very nice bonus. Hopefully the good start to the season can be continued on Saturday and I have 7 bets across 3 of the 7 leagues.
Barnet v Ebbsfleet (National League)
Two teams I put up ante-post and I have been really disappointed with how Barnet have performed so far. They should be doing better than they are and as much as I think John Still will turn it around at some stage, I don't see how they can be odds on to win this game. Ebbslfeet have had a solid start to the season and have been playing better than their results suggest. They have only won one of their first 4 games, but they have been a bit unfortunate not to add to their points tally and they look in better shape than their hosts on Saturday. Marathon have an away win at 147/50 and that looks value to me.
Maidstone v Barrow (National League)
Barrow have had a superb start to the season especially given they were one of the market leaders to go down this season. To beat Chesterfield 3-2 on Tuesday night was a superb result even allowing for the fact Chesterfield went down to 10 men when they were 2-1 up. Their other 3 games have seen them beat Havant 3-0, get a fully deserved 2-2 draw at Leyton Orient and the one blip so far was a defeat at Halifax. Given that form I am not surprised to see they have been backed already for this, but at 13/5 (Marathon) I still think there is plenty of value to be had. I opposed Maidstone on Tuesday night with Orient and although they got 1 back late on to make it nervy, Orient were very comfortable for most of the evening. Barrow have certainly been the better of the two sides so far this season and they should be at least 74-15/8 for this in my view.
Dartford v Wealdstone (National League South)
Wealdstone may have needed a late penalty to see off Woking on Monday night, but they were good value for the victory and I am going to continue backing them at the weekend because they look a big price at Dartford. It will be a tough game, but for me there is noway they should be as big as 14/5 with Marathon as the teams are much closer together than the prices suggest. Dartford have had a tough start to the season fixture list wise and have done well enough to come away with 2 wins, a draw and a defeat. That defeat came on Tuesday night against Concord who have started the season in really good shape, but it showed that Dartford might not be quite up to the heights they achieved last season and with Wealdstone looking stronger I think they are more than up to picking up another 3 points here.
Truro v Welling (National League South)
To be fair to Truro they haven't done quite as badly as I thought they would after their management team left just before they played their 2nd game. They suffered their 2nd defeat of the season on Tuesday against Chippenham and they are yet to win this season, but picking up a couple of points is a fair achievement given all the off the field issues. Welling are favourites for this, but they should be. They did loose 3-0 against Billericay on Tuesday night, but they played better than the result suggests and they were playing the best team in the division. Truro are going to be in a relegation scrap this season and Welling should be looking at the play-offs and they should be up to winning this. Marathon go 131/100 about an away win.
Slough v Torquay (National League South)
Torquay were unbeaten in their first 3 games, but then lost on Tuesday night when losing to Oxford City 1-0. That is not a good result and as I wrote on here last weekend, they had been lucky to beat Bath in their 2nd game of the season. Beating East Thurrock in between those two games doesn't say a great deal given they have lost 4/4 and I think Slough can beat them. Slough made slightly harder work of it than I was hoping for when beating Weston on Tuesday, but crucially once they got 1 they added the 2nd pretty quickly to turn things around. This game will be tougher, but I think Slough have enough to see off a Torquay side who I think might be looking at mid-table obscurity this season.
Hartley Wintney v Frome Town (Southern League South)
The home side have got off to a cracking start in their first ever season at this level and it seems for now they are continuing on their form from last season when winning promotion. They have already beaten Poole and Gosport and this would look an easier game on paper. Frome drew with Hendon on the opening day and then lost to Tiverton on Tuesday. They were in all sorts of issues at the back end of last season and although they aren't as bad as that I certainly don't expect them to be in the top half of the table. The home side might drop away as the season progresses, but at the moment they are looking strong and Marathon's 27/20 is well worth taking.
Kings Langley v Taunton (Southern League South)
Taunton were only beaten late on by Weymouth on Tuesday night and that is a good effort against the favourites for promotion. As I wrote in my ante-post preview Taunton were really impressive when winning the league last season and they should be up there this time around as well. Kings Langley struggled badly last season and I fully expect them to be near the relegation zone this time around. Taunton at 11/8 with Marathon looks worth taking.
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 147/50 with Marathon
Barrow 1pt @ 13/5 with Marathon
Wealdstone 1pt @14/5 with Marathon
Welling 2pts @ 131/100 with Marathon
Slough 1pt @ 29/20 with Marathon
Hartley Wintney 1pt @27/20 with Marathon
Taunton 1pt @ 11/8 with Marathon

A good day on Saturday although Dorking and AFC Telford both failing to hold onto their 1 goal leads stopped it from being an excellent afternoon. Like last mid-week I have 6 bets with 1 on Monday night and the other 5 all on Tuesday.
Dover v Havant & Waterlooville
Havant were surprisingly well beaten by Barrow on the opening day of the season, but they have improved massively on that in their following two games. A goalless draw against Boreham Wood was followed up with a 1-1 draw against Fylde on Saturday where they outplayed their opponents and should have won. They have clearly got over the shock of their first game at this level and I think they have a great chance to get their first win of the season on the board on Tuesday night. Dover have only picked up a point so far in a 2-2 draw against Bromley last Tuesday and they weren't great when losing to Gateshead on Saturday. They only managed a couple of shots on Saturday and it seems like the new team might need a bit of time to get going. I think the away side are over priced at 113/50 with Marathon.
Maidenhead v Wrexham
I am a big fan of Alan Devonshire as a manager, but it looks like he could have his work cut out keeping Maidenhead in the league this season. They were bad against Gateshead and then lost to Solihull. They drew with Dagenham on Saturday and although they ended up with only 9 men on the pitch I don't think the form is anything to write home about as Dagenham have struggled themselves early doors. Thanks to leaving my iPod on the train on Saturday afternoon I didn't end up watching the Wrexham game on BT Sport as I had hoped, but they ran out 3-0 winners over Boreham Wood. Now the report suggests it was a little against the run of play, but crucially they were able to put the ball in the back of the net and I suspect that was a game that would have ended 0-0 last season. They haven't conceded a goal in their first 3 games and I can't believe they aren't shorter than they are. Marathon's 93/50 makes plenty of appeal.
Maidstone v Leyton Orient
Orient have started the season with 3 draws against Salford, Ebbsfleet and Barrow, but this looks a good chance to get that first win on the board. They didn't sound like they were at their best on Saturday when drawing 2-2 with Barrow, but they more than have the class to see off a Maidstone side who were very poor at the weekend. They do have a win on the board after beating Dagenham last week, but as mentioned above I am not sure that says a lot and losing 3-0 to Halifax on Saturday was not a great result. I would make Orient favourites for this so the 193/100 with Marathon looks big.
AFC Telford v Brackley
Into the National League North now. Telford were unfortunate not to win for us at the weekend with the late Guieseley equaliser a deflected effort. It continues their unbeaten start to the season though and I was amazed to see them as big as 15/8 (Marathon) to overcome a Brackley side who have had an indifferent start. A win against Alfreton last Tuesday was a good effort, but either side of that they have lost to Bradford Park Avenue and then on Saturday 4-2 to Darlington. Given they are at home I was surprised not to see Telford as the favourites for this and they have to be a bet at the prices.
Wealdstone v Woking
Two bets in the National League South starting with this game on Monday night. Woking are 3/3, but I am not sure that tells the full story. A dubious penalty in injury time got them a win at East Thurrock and then sending offs for their opponents have played a big part in them winning their other two matches. East Thurrock and Oxford City (who they beat on Saturday) are games against teams likely to be battling against relegation and they shouldn't really have to be relying on men getting sent off. Wealdstone have had a solid start to the season and they pushed Billericay hard on Saturday despite losing 1-0. If they can back that performance up here I think they have a great chance of adding to their opening day win against Weston. Marathon are 17/10 and I think that is on the right side of value.
Slough v Weston-Super-Mare
Speaking of Weston I am more than happy to oppose them again on Tuesday night. They were 2 up against St Albans and then ended up losing 3-2 and that makes it 8 goals conceded in just 3 games. Slough got their first win of the season on Saturday and as much as Gloucester were really bad, Slough should have won more easily than the 2-1 scoreline suggests. They should get plenty of chances in front of goal again on Tuesday night given Weston's shaky defence and I think they can follow up Saturday's win. Marathon's 34/25 looks a cracking price.
Havant 1pt @ 113/50 with Marathon
Wrexham 1pt @ 93/50 with Marathon
Leyton Orient 1pt @ 193/100 with Marthon
AFC Telford 1pt @ 15/8 with Marthon
Wealdstone 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon
Slough 2pts @ 34/25 with Marathon

Tuesday was disappointing and I think we were a little unlucky not to pick up another couple of winners with the performances some of the picks put in. I am avoiding the National League this weekend. Nothing really stands out and there have been some strange results over the first couple of weekend's. Salford have not started well and are back out to 7/2 and can be backed at over 2/1 to beat Sutton tomorrow which was I price you wouldn't have predicted a week ago. I have 5 bets though and 3 of the 4 Step 3 leagues get underway on Saturday.
Guiseley v AFC Telford
The away side have started the season very strongly beating Southport 1-0 on the opening day and then getting a 0-0 draw at Kidderminster on Tuesday. They look set for a better season than last time around and I think they look a big price at 5/2 (188bet) to win this. The home side have lost both their opening two games and I think Marcus Bignot has got a very tough task to turn the relegated side around. If Telford can continue their good form from their first two games they have a decent chance of winning this.
Nuneaton v Chorley
I am going to oppose Nuneaton again on Saturday. It didn't quite pay off on Tuesday night as they held Hereford to a 0-0 draw, but Chorley have started the season in really strong fashion. An opening day victory over York was backed up when the beat Guiseley on Tuesday. They weren't far away from being one of my picks to win the league so I am not surprised they have got off to a flying start and I would make them favourites to win this. The 2/1 with Marathon on an away win makes plenty of appeal.
Hampton & Richmond v Bath City
I have been in Devon for a few days and have picked up the local paper so have been reading a fair bit about Torquay and all the goings on at Truro. Bath may have lost to Torquay 1-0 on Tuesday night, but even the Torquay manager and one of the players suggested they had been fortuante to pick up the 3 points as Bath had played really well. They will surely get their first win of the season on the board sooner rather than later and this game could well be it. Hampton pushed Hemel closer than I thought they would on Tuesday, but thankfully for us Hemel picked up the three points. I certainly think Bath have the stronger squad and they look over priced at 11/5 with Bet365.
Weston-Super-Mare v St Albans
The home side have started the season poorly. A 4-1 defeat to Wealdstone was followed up by a 1-1 against Truro on Tuesday night. Before Tuesday's game Truro's management team told the players they were quitting and although the players might have wanted to put in a performance for them the fact Weston couldn't take full advatange says a lot to me. They don't look in great defensive shape at all based on their first two games and St Albans should be able to punish them. A 3-2 win on the opening day to Hungerford was a fair effort and then they had a man sent off when a goal up at Woking on Tuesday and ended up losing 2-1. This game could well be easier than either of them so I will be backing them at 163/100 with Marathon.
Bishops Stortford v Dorking
Oddschecker is a mess as regards for Step 3 prices at the moment so I have only looked at Marathon's prices as chances are they will be biggest anyway. Dorking have been a big market mover in the title market which I think is more than down to the fact I have put them up and I think the vibes are really strong around the club this season that they can go very close. Now they do have a few injuries going into this game, but I think they have some strength in depth and they should still have too much for the home side. As you know I don't pay too much attention to friendly results but the home side lost all 7 of theirs and only scored twice. I am happy to take the 61/50 about the away side getting off to a strong start.
AFC Telford 1pt @ 5/2 with 188bet
Chorley 1pt @ 2/1 with Marathon
Bath 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365
St Albans 1pt @ 163/100 with Marathon
Dorking 2pts @ 61/50 with Marathon
 

Southampton V Burnley
Burnley +0.75 AH @ 1.85 Betvictor
I agree with the above posts regarding this game. The markets are loving Southampton in the build-up to the new season and I can't understand why. Pre-season has been less than impressive for them both in the transfer window and performances in friendlies. It may take a while for Mark Hughes to get the conditioning and balance of the team up to scratch.
Burnley are already a complete team under Sean Dyche. They certainly improved their away record last season, 6th strongest in the division. Compare that to Southampton's home record; 2nd worst in the division. Obviously the dynamics may change this season as Burnley have Europa League football to contend with, at least in the short term. Some maybe concerned by the fact that Burnley have to play in Turkey on Thursday, three days before the match at Southampton. It does make things slightly awkward in terms of preparation but it also means Burnley have been playing competitive football in the weeks building-up to Sunday's game whereas Southampton haven't.
I have decided to take this one early as I can see that a few punters are beginning to question Burnley's long odds and maybe they will noticeably shorten before Sunday. The caveat to all this is that Burnley currently have a few injury doubts to important players like Defour, Brady and Wood + both first choice keepers are crocked which is why Joe Hart has been bought in. We also don't know how many will emerge unscathed from the midweek game in Turkey.
Southampton will look to capitalise on Burnley's quick turnover of matches by playing a possession game, wearing the away side down and then nicking a goal somehow. Despite this, I believe the home side's odds of 1.83 are too short and this opens the door for a speculative value play on the away side.
Burnley are at a more advanced stage in their team development and cohesion, maybe they can capitalize on this and blag a draw on Sunday. Southampton still look tepid upfront, so even if they do win it's hard to envisage them winning by more than a goal. Odds are skewed enough to get Burnley on the +0.75 line which gives us that extra cover.

EPL 2018/2019 – The Mindfulness Preview





Manchester City


Prediction: 1st


Synopsis:


No team has successfully defended the EPL title since Manchester Utd back in 2008, so needless to say it’s a big ask. Despite this I feel City are well positioned to win consecutive league titles as their team is just so strong. Everyone talks about the amount of goals they score but lets not forget they also had the strongest defence in the division last season, they’re a complete unit on and off the ball.


The biggest concern for City will be the potential for Fernandinho to run out of gas. The Brazilian defensive midfielder is 33 now and the world cup did him no favours in terms of getting a nice summers rest. Guardiola missed out on the signing of Jorginho during the summer transfer window, the Catalan coach will hope it doesn’t come back to haunt him.


In terms of ante-post betting, I backed City to win the title @ 1.80 a couple of weeks ago. There’s no significant juice in the price as their actual valuation should be 1.67 – 1.54 in my view. However I have hedged the selection with a smaller bet on Liverpool @ 5.4, I find it hard to believe that there will be a team that finishes above both City and Liverpool this season.    
 



Liverpool


Prediction: 2nd


Synopsis:


Liverpool are like a fine dish that Jurgen Klopp has been preparing for years, a delicious dish, full of flavour, with the caveat that everyone chokes at the end. The question is can they finally turn that quality into trophies this season? The summer transfer window has been a good one with the arrival of GK Alisson and CM Keita in particular. Fabinho replaces Can in the DM/utility role while Shaqiri can emulate Coutinho’s ability to score out of nowhere but that is perhaps where the comparison should end.


Essentially Liverpool have all the ingredients to win the EPL but I am always slightly concerned about Klopp’s propensity for style over substance. You don’t play heavy metal on full-blast for every given occasion, sometimes you’ll get a headache, or even worse, concussion. Backing them for the EPL title @ 5.0 isn’t the worst bet you could make but you are quite exposed if you don’t have City on side in some form.

 


Manchester Utd


Prediction: 3rd


Synopsis:


Mourinho’s ability to out-fox opposition managers in individual games is offset by the clubs faltering acquisitions in the transfer market. Brexit has recently been described by Danny Dyer as a ‘mad riddle’ but Mourinho could be forgiven for thinking the same of his disjointed Man Utd side. 


The signing of defensive midfielder Fred from Shakhtar Donetsk should prove helpful with his bravery and vision while in possession. The hallmark of previously successful Utd teams was to play the ball forward incisively while under pressure and Fred typifies this. But the team needs more as Utd are still lacking in the full-back positions, while the balance in the wide forward positions is still a concern. Their attempts to sign a centre-back during the window are well documented but the fact that this failed to materialise is all a bit Keystone Cops. Pre-season has been poor from Utd with Mournho’s whining perhaps at an all time high in an attempt to lower expectations and manage psychology.


Despite this you can never completely discount the Portuguese tactician, they did finish 2nd last season, albeit 19 pts behind City. The concern is that rivals Liverpool have made advances in the summer window while Utd have floundered. The Red Devils are more like Frankenstein’s monster at present, the fans will be hoping this season doesn’t turn into a complete horror show. I think Utd and Liverpool can both run closer to City this season but it will still be difficult for them.

 


Chelsea    


Prediction: 4th


Synopsis:


Maurizio Sarri replaces Antonio Conte at the helm and it will be interesting to see how the change in manager works out for the team. As abrasive as Conte was, there is no doubting that he is a winner. The same cannot yet be said of Sarri who despite his best efforts, could not break the stranglehold of Juventus in Serie A.


Sarri has always been a coach I’ve admired but to come to England and win the title in his first season will be a big ask. Yes, other managers have done it, but Sarri will prioritise implementing his preferred playing style above other concerns. Expect to see a 4-3-3 module with high octane players such as Kante and Kovacic either side of Jorginho in the midfield 3.


Chelsea’s weakness is in the centre-forward position. I like Alvaro Morata, but at 25 years of age he still lacks the qualities of a complete centre-forward. I don’t think his journeyman career has helped in that regard. I’m sure he will improve with age as most classic centre-forwards usually produce their best work in their early thirties. Ultimately Chelsea have been unable to find an immediate replacement for Diego Costa and it’s a problem for them, they were the lowest scorers in the top 6 last season.

 





Tottenham Hotspur


Prediction: 5th


Synopsis:


No such issues for Tottenham as Harry Kane is one of the best centre-forwards in world football today. Tottenham’s first eleven is very strong and a match for any team in the division but they lack squad depth compared to their EPL rivals. While the imminent move to New White Hart Lane is unlikely to drastically affect the team on the pitch, it may hinder their progress off it in the short term. The summer window has been devoid of reinforcements and frankly Tottenham could become exposed if they sustain injuries to key players.


Mauricio Pochettino is one of the best coaches in the world for developing young players and managing a side with limited resources. The problem for him is that the odds are against Tottenham going the extra hurdle and actually winning silverware as the club is pretty much operating at it’s peak relative to it’s current resources. Perhaps this will change in the mid to long term when New White Hart Lane starts to pay dividends. Until then expect Pochettino to compete strongly but ultimately fall short at the business end of the campaign when that relentless schedule starts to bite.

 


Arsenal 


Prediction: 6th


Synopsis:


A change in tack for Arsenal under new coach Unai Emery maybe welcomed by many Arsenal fans but I do not see a radical shift towards being title contenders as things stand. The team will be grittier and meaner on the pitch with the signings of Lichtsteiner, Sokratis and impressive defensive midfielder Lucas Torreira. Aubameyang is an excellent centre-forward and should continue to shine in the EPL.


The main concern for Arsenal will be a lack of creativity from midfield. Wilshere and Cazorla have not been replaced as Torreira doesn’t construct play in the same way. I think we will see an Arsenal side that is hard to break down, hard to beat and very dangerous on the counter-attack but they will not make the game as they did during the Wenger era.


So a new coach and a new era for Arsenal but they remain an incomplete team with one key weakness simply being exchanged for another. I do expect them to make a better fist of challenging for the top 4 this season and I also think they are better value than Chelsea to win the Europa League as Emery is a proven winner in that competition.

 


Everton


Prediction: 7th


Synopsis:


Sam Allardyce did a pretty good with an unbalanced and disjointed Everton squad last season. The club finished 8th and had the 7th best home record in the division. This was not enough for the Goodison unfaithful however and now it is the turn of the enigmatic Marco Silva to carry the weight of the clubs lofty ambitions. In my view Silva is a coach with potential but nothing beyond that as he simply hasn’t stayed at an EPL club long enough for his class to be proven.


The club itself has been fairly busy in the summer transfer window with a slew of redundant no. 10’s being sold off and a slew of left-wing forwards being bought in. Some decent players have been acquired to address the problem areas although Everton still look light in those central midfield positions. Morgan Schneiderlin’s performances in particular have dipped in recent seasons so Idrissa Gueye is left to carry the team on too many occasions. I like the energy of Tom Davies but he is still only 20 and needs to be given time to hone his craft. Maybe Besic or new signing Andre Gomes will step up to the plate, time will tell.


Overall Everton have plenty of quality but the squad is still slightly unbalanced in my view. Richarlison, Bernard and Lookman all play in the same position which may create tensions in the dressing room. Perhaps more strikingly, they still lack a classic no.9 who can hold the ball up and bully defenders. They certainly have players who can come off the bench and exploit tired opponents at the tail end of games. Unfortunately no target man may mean plan b proves elusive when plan a fails.


The good news for Everton is that the signings they’ve made should help improve their away form, they only won 3 away from home last season. Better results on the road will help them to pressurise Arsenal for that last European place.


Big things are expected by the fans and board alike, Silva must deliver.

 


Leicester City


Prediction: 8th


Synopsis:


Leicester will have to carry on without star man Riyad Mahrez after his transfer to ManCity. The good news for Leicester fans is that they made a swift replacement in the form of James Maddison. The midfield prodigy signs from Norwich and it will be interesting to see how his career progresses in the EPL. Rachid Ghezzal also signs from Monaco to help cover the departure of Mahrez. Jonny Evans is a solid acquisition at centre-back and should speed along the quiet and dignified retirement of Wes Morgan. The signing of right-back Ricardo Pereira from Porto is somewhat of a coup and should be an excellent addition to the team in my view.


Generally speaking I don’t see much difference in Leicester this season, Maddison may not be equal to Mahrez in the short term but Claude Puel’s side are capable of another top half finish. I do not agree with the view that they are a team in decline, their squad is strong and still contains winners.

 


Crystal Palace


Prediction: 9th


Synopsis:


We backed Palace top half finish at a massive 7.0 last season but the selection was scuppered on the last day with Newcastle beating Chelsea by a 3 goal margin. Palace have arguably underperformed in recent seasons given the size of their wage bill but at least the team is looking strong under Hodgson.


The biggest concern for Palace will be the absence of Ruben Loftus-Cheek who returns to Chelsea. The England international was adept at linking play for Palace’s attacking combinations last season. Perhaps German prodigy Max Meyer can step up to the plate, his vision, technique and agility will add quality to the Palace midfield. AM/FW Jordan Ayew joins on-loan from Swansea and his attributes will also prove useful in covering the departure of RLC.


After a few seasons assembling a squad of decent players, Palace can now be viewed as a complete team. Defensively strong with the centre-back partnership of Tomkins & Sakho, but also dangerous going forward under the coaching of Hodgson and Lewington. I don’t envisage any problems for the red & blue army this year. I have them finishing above West Ham due to greater team integration while also facing less pressure from fans. That being said; Everton, Leicester, Palace and West Ham are in a kind of mini-league and I don’t see much between them.


Palace’s top half finish odds of 3.25 are not worth taking in my view due to fierce competition. However, if Palace have a slow start and we get a drift to 5.0 or longer in said market then it’s worth a punt. Palace are the value play in w/o big 6 market @ 15.0 (Betvictor).

 


West Ham Utd


Prediction: 10th


Synopsis:


Manuel Pellegrini replaces David Moyes at the helm of West Ham in a move which suits their ‘glamorous’ ambitions. The signing of Felipe Anderson is an interesting one, he was wanted by all of the big European clubs a few years ago but his career has gone off the boil since then. There’s no doubting his ability, if he performs to his potential he will be a great signing for the Hammers, if not, another dim memory in the dustbin of history. Yarmolenko also has quality and perhaps will prove more reliable in the wing-forward positions. Jack Wilshere will look to resurrect his career at his boyhood club, the complete midfielder is now only excellent on the ball, poor without it.


Expect West Ham to score a lot of goals but also expect them to concede a lot. Manuel Lanzini is out of action for the foreseeable future and the remaining attack minded players make little in the way of defensive contribution. Their games will probably see-saw wildly and should provide great entertainment. The fans and owners will be expecting a top-half finish, maybe even pressuring Arsenal.


Like Marco Silva, Pellegrini must deliver.

 
Wolves



Prediction: 11th


Synopsis:


Nuno Espirito Santo crushed the English Championship like a grape last season, no mean feat. The team boasts Portuguese internationals such as GK Rui Patricio, DM Joao Moutinho and CM Ruben Neves. Going forward, Diogo Jota and Adama Traore are burgeoning talents and can be a menace at EPL level.


Expect Wolves to be well-drilled and hard to beat this season, they are capable of taking points off the big boys and should have no trouble consolidating in the prem. The only potential vulnerability that I can see is in the centre-forward position. Mexico international Raul Jimenez will probably be the man on point, he has good quality and ability but will need to settle into the league quickly otherwise Wolves may find scoring goals a bit more tricky at this level. Goal tallies from their crucial wing forwards are also likely to drop in the EPL.


The markets seem to have them priced correctly with a bottom half finish slightly odds on. Some might be tempted to get involved with their juicy relegation odds at 9.0 but not me as I believe there are worse teams in this division at a similar price. Wolves should cruise to a lower mid-table finish this season.

 


Fulham


Prediction: 12th


Synopsis:


Slavisa Jokanovic finally gets his chance in the EPL and his Fulham side were certainly impressive at the business end of last season. The core of Fulham’s team is pretty decent and shouldn’t have too much trouble retaining their EPL status this year.


Fulham have more quality in the final 3rd than a lot of their supposed relegation rivals. Sessegnon and Schurrle in particular should be a menace at this level. The jury is still out on CF Mitrovic mind, he really needs to step up to the plate if Fulham want to avoid a dogfight. I feel there is some momentum at the club right now so a lower mid-table finish is possible for them. Relegation odds of around 3.0 seem to be in the right ball park, anything longer than that starts to become slightly generous imo.  
 
Brighton & Hove Albion



Prediction: 13th


Synopsis: It was a textbook season for Brighton in 2017/2018. Chris Hughton made some shrewd acquisitions, The Amex was made a fortress and Glenn Murray made double figures… I am of course talking about the amount of goals he scored.



The key question is; will it be second season syndrome for the seaweeds? In my view probably not. Hughton continues to make decent additions under the radar, Yves Bissouma beefs up the midfield, Leon Balogun provides good backup for the Dunk / Duffy partnership while Alireza Jahanbakhsh looks to have some great attributes in the wing forward positions. The signing of Martin Montoya at right-back is also impressive.


Brighton should be a tough team to face once again with the Amex being a difficult place to visit. Back in the day they used to shit in the away dressing rooms, now they actually pickup points at home, now that’s what I call progress!!!


The only caveat for Hughton is that his team were rock bottom of the EPL away table in 2017/2018, Brighton may want to address that to avoid putting all their eggs in the Amex basket.

 


Newcastle Utd


Prediction: 14th


Synopsis:


Ah Newcastle Utd, vomiting in a fireplace never felt so profitable. Perennial skinflint Mike Ashley knows how to rake in the quids and so Newcastle fans should not be surprised that the summer window has been quiet for them. Ashley has one job at Newcastle, gauging how far he can squeeze the personnel budget without Benitez leaving. 


I never felt Newcastle were in danger of going down last season with Benitez in charge, even with a shoestring budget and underwhelming squad. The fact he got them a 10th place finish was a job very well done.


If Rafa stays, we can expect a lower mid-table finish for the magpies. If at any point in the near future he leaves then Newcastle’s relegation odds of 6.0 must be backed without hesitation.

 


Burnley


Prediction: 15th


Synopsis:


Burnley have Europa League football to contend with this season largely due to the success of their innovative Pope Funnel tactics. Manager Sean Dyche must again receive credit but I don’t think he has been all that pleased with the clubs transfer activity this summer.


Their defence is extremely robust which makes relegation unlikely, particularly with Dyche at the helm. However, underinvestment in the playing squad and European football means they are unlikely to replicate a top half finish this time around.


Burnley nicked a lot of 1-0’s last season, being on the right side of fine margins in 2018/2019 will be more difficult for them in my view. Will they be looking over their shoulders this time around? Dyche will surely prioritise the league if the schedule starts to bite.

 


Southampton


Prediction: 16th


Synopsis: For me this is the most glaringly obvious pricing error for EPL ante-post this season. We’re getting 8.0 for a Southampton relegation this year, markets are telling us there is just an 12.5% chance of them going down. What’s more, their top half finish odds are shorter than Palace’s and this is simply laughable.



Southampton have been shedding quality players for a while now and it’s starting to hurt them. Attacking midfielder Dusan Tadic has left in the summer window and frankly the club has done very little to address the ongoing issues it has in the centre-forward position. Gabbiadini will never be a prolific goal scorer at this level and Charlie Austin is injury prone. Yes Vestergaard is an important signing at centre-back and Elyounoussi may be a decent replacement for Tadic but generally the squad is treading water.


Accurate relegation odds for Southampton would be more like 4.0. I’m happy to back them to go down at 8.0 and then hedge it with Southampton to survive if at any stage they start to flirt with the dogfight. The loan signing of Danny Ings could prove crucial while Mark Hughes is a good manager at this level and ultimately I expect them to survive. 

 


AFC Bournemouth


Prediction: 17th


Synopsis: There is no I in team and no club represents this better in the EPL than Bournemouth. Eddie Howe’s side are not overly reliant on one individual and that is perhaps why they maintain durability at this level. Goals and assists come from all areas of the pitch and the team always seems tenacious enough to get a goal when required.



Despite this, I do think their relegation odds are slightly generous @ 6.0, competition to avoid the drop will be fierce again this year. I think odds of around 4.0 would be more accurate for Bournemouth here.

 


Watford


Prediction: 18th


Synopsis: Despite the departure of Richarlison, Watford still have enough quality to survive at this level in my view. They are aided by decent home support at Vicarage Road but I think their EPL status will be put to the test this season.



The obvious concern is manager Javi Gracia, it’s not that I think he’s a poor coach, he’s simply an unknown quantity. He never stays at a club long enough to accurately assess his abilities, we are somewhat in the dark as to whether or not he will get the most out of his squad.


The Watford relegation odds have shortened too much for me to get involved. They were 4.0 a few weeks back but dropping to 3.0 leaves me disinterested quite frankly.

 


Huddersfield Town


Prediction: 19th


Synopsis: The daggers are certainly out for Huddersfield this season. Many believe they do not have the quality to survive at this level but having a good coach, hungry players and defending from the front can count for a lot, even in the EPL. Incoming transfers may not be big names but they’re always in line with how the team plays, no square pegs in round holes here. 



A repeat of 28 goals scored and 37 pts accrued may kill them off this time round but don’t be too surprised if they manage to survive somehow. Huddersfield’s cohesion, motivation and determination will last for 38 games, the same cannot be said of every team in the EPL. Relegation odds for David Wagner’s side look to be in the right ball park so not bet here.

 


Cardiff City


Prediction: 20th


Synopsis: First off I agree with Stevie Day that Neil Warnock is an underrated manager, I’m glad to see him back in the EPL but this season will be a massive challenge for him. The team is how you would expect it to be: low on possession, physical, aggressive, long balls, crosses in the box, strong attacking / defending set-pieces, direct counters.



Will it be enough to survive at this level? I’m not sure, their defence will be very vulnerable against the division’s top teams and I am less confident they can take points off the big boys compared to their relegation rivals. Let’s not forget that Warnock took an average looking championship side to a 2nd placed finish, they performed to the very limits of their potential. Summer reinforcements have not looked like they will take the team to the next level. I fear for them despite Warnock’s abilities as a manager.


The ray of light for Cardiff is the example set by teams like Burnley. Sean Dyche has demonstrated you can take an under resourced championship team and establish them in the premier league but it’s a big ask.


Cardiff’s relegation odds of 1.7 are not worth taking in my view. I suggest looking at their odds after the first 3 league games (Bournemouth, Newcastle, Huddersfield). A good start for the bluebirds may then present an opportunity in the relegation market.

Southampton V Burnley
Burnley +0.75 AH @ 1.85 Betvictor
I agree with the above posts regarding this game. The markets are loving Southampton in the build-up to the new season and I can't understand why. Pre-season has been less than impressive for them both in the transfer window and performances in friendlies. It may take a while for Mark Hughes to get the conditioning and balance of the team up to scratch.
Burnley are already a complete team under Sean Dyche. They certainly improved their away record last season, 6th strongest in the division. Compare that to Southampton's home record; 2nd worst in the division. Obviously the dynamics may change this season as Burnley have Europa League football to contend with, at least in the short term. Some maybe concerned by the fact that Burnley have to play in Turkey on Thursday, three days before the match at Southampton. It does make things slightly awkward in terms of preparation but it also means Burnley have been playing competitive football in the weeks building-up to Sunday's game whereas Southampton haven't.
I have decided to take this one early as I can see that a few punters are beginning to question Burnley's long odds and maybe they will noticeably shorten before Sunday. The caveat to all this is that Burnley currently have a few injury doubts to important players like Defour, Brady and Wood + both first choice keepers are crocked which is why Joe Hart has been bought in. We also don't know how many will emerge unscathed from the midweek game in Turkey.
Southampton will look to capitalise on Burnley's quick turnover of matches by playing a possession game, wearing the away side down and then nicking a goal somehow. Despite this, I believe the home side's odds of 1.83 are too short and this opens the door for a speculative value play on the away side.
Burnley are at a more advanced stage in their team development and cohesion, maybe they can capitalize on this and blag a draw on Sunday. Southampton still look tepid upfront, so even if they do win it's hard to envisage them winning by more than a goal. Odds are skewed enough to get Burnley on the +0.75 line which gives us that extra cover.