Mindfulness

Christ, where do you get this stuff from @Mindfulness?  I think you lot are a lot  more obsessed with Brighton than they are of you
Obviously we don't need clackers now tha we have got Big Glenn up from banging the goals in ( There was such a backlash after the clackers were introduced, the club dare not do it again! They are the naffest  thing ever)
Magiko- sounds like the sort of foreign import Palace will blow £30 million on, in a vain attempt to stay up. 
Made me chuckle though,
I have moved to Devon now, and am going to watch Torquay V StAlbans on Tuesday, but I'll start the Magiko song off in the Popside & see what response it gets!  
In all seriousnes, I have been busy moving and selling my businesses. Consequently I have not been putting enough time or clear thinking into my decision making, and its cost me! So I have been off it for a few weeks, just having a break. 
I did back Torquay to win their league e/w at 34/1 just after GJ took over. They are 9/1 now! 
Illl stick a post up on this weeks Brighton game, 
Nice that your thinking of me anyway.
Mmmmm, Magiko, Magiko, we will follow you wherever you go, la la la de da, mmmmm, yes Its got a ring to it. 

Cardiff City V Brighton & Hove Albion
X @ 3.16 Marathonbet
As @StevieDay1983 has already mentioned, Cardiff lack a ruthless goalscorer. The spirit level is good with the Bluebirds at present and this is reflected in the ELO ratings. Despite this, I prefer to go with X here rather than home team DNB or AH 0 line. Brighton are notoriously poor on the road in the EPL but their defence is worthy of respect and I doubt the Seaweeds will be too phased when facing this Cardiff attack. Brighton are also in good spirits at present and the two sides may well cancel each other out here.
On a side note, completely agree with @StevieDay1983 regarding Neil Warnock. He is one of the best managers in English league football and fully deserves another shot at keeping an underdog team in the EPL. Cardiff's biggest asset is their manager.
 
Southampton V Watford
X @ 3.40 Unibet
ELO ratings are very close here, some folks will side with the away team on the +0.25 AH line and that's fair enough. I prefer X as I think this could be another game where neither team is strong enough to win it. Watford will miss Etienne Capoue for this match, his grit and industry is quite important for Javi Gracia's side, particularly within the current system they deploy. Nathaniel Chalobah is a quality replacement but he isn't quite as strong with the defensive side of the game. Watford have clearly outperformed Southampton so far this campaign but this is the type of match which could be a little awkward for Doucoure & co.
Low defensive blocks and plenty of shooting from downtown will probably be on the menu here, Southampton vice-chairman Les Reed has made a bee line for the exits, Mark Hughes will try and avoid getting stung by the hornets... If this game ends in stalemate we will be buzzing.
 
 

By the way, where is @Tiffy??? Have hardly seen him on the EPL threads this season. I hope Tony Bloom hasn't hired him to handcraft clackers and laminate song sheets for match days.

Before our defeat to Leicester we were outside the bottom three having already played Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Tottenham. If we win on Saturday we could be 16th. That's some bizarre criticism of Warnock right there. Especially considering he's doing it on a budget far lower than any other team in the Premier League.

Cardiff City V Brighton & Hove Albion
X @ 3.16 Marathonbet
As @StevieDay1983 has already mentioned, Cardiff lack a ruthless goalscorer. The spirit level is good with the Bluebirds at present and this is reflected in the ELO ratings. Despite this, I prefer to go with X here rather than home team DNB or AH 0 line. Brighton are notoriously poor on the road in the EPL but their defence is worthy of respect and I doubt the Seaweeds will be too phased when facing this Cardiff attack. Brighton are also in good spirits at present and the two sides may well cancel each other out here.
On a side note, completely agree with @StevieDay1983 regarding Neil Warnock. He is one of the best managers in English league football and fully deserves another shot at keeping an underdog team in the EPL. Cardiff's biggest asset is their manager.
 
Southampton V Watford
X @ 3.40 Unibet
ELO ratings are very close here, some folks will side with the away team on the +0.25 AH line and that's fair enough. I prefer X as I think this could be another game where neither team is strong enough to win it. Watford will miss Etienne Capoue for this match, his grit and industry is quite important for Javi Gracia's side, particularly within the current system they deploy. Nathaniel Chalobah is a quality replacement but he isn't quite as strong with the defensive side of the game. Watford have clearly outperformed Southampton so far this campaign but this is the type of match which could be a little awkward for Doucoure & co.
Low defensive blocks and plenty of shooting from downtown will probably be on the menu here, Southampton vice-chairman Les Reed has made a bee line for the exits, Mark Hughes will try and avoid getting stung by the hornets... If this game ends in stalemate we will be buzzing.
 
 

Cardiff City V Brighton & Hove Albion
X @ 3.16 Marathonbet
As @StevieDay1983 has already mentioned, Cardiff lack a ruthless goalscorer. The spirit level is good with the Bluebirds at present and this is reflected in the ELO ratings. Despite this, I prefer to go with X here rather than home team DNB or AH 0 line. Brighton are notoriously poor on the road in the EPL but their defence is worthy of respect and I doubt the Seaweeds will be too phased when facing this Cardiff attack. Brighton are also in good spirits at present and the two sides may well cancel each other out here.
On a side note, completely agree with @StevieDay1983 regarding Neil Warnock. He is one of the best managers in English league football and fully deserves another shot at keeping an underdog team in the EPL. Cardiff's biggest asset is their manager.
 
Southampton V Watford
X @ 3.40 Unibet
ELO ratings are very close here, some folks will side with the away team on the +0.25 AH line and that's fair enough. I prefer X as I think this could be another game where neither team is strong enough to win it. Watford will miss Etienne Capoue for this match, his grit and industry is quite important for Javi Gracia's side, particularly within the current system they deploy. Nathaniel Chalobah is a quality replacement but he isn't quite as strong with the defensive side of the game. Watford have clearly outperformed Southampton so far this campaign but this is the type of match which could be a little awkward for Doucoure & co.
Low defensive blocks and plenty of shooting from downtown will probably be on the menu here, Southampton vice-chairman Les Reed has made a bee line for the exits, Mark Hughes will try and avoid getting stung by the hornets... If this game ends in stalemate we will be buzzing.
 
 

Nah, not a chance. Warnock has the entire backing of the fan base. The problem is player quality and depth. Our supporters are happy to accept that for the time being we are dealing with a tightly run ship after decades of diabolical financial management. Vincent Tan took some hard, and deserved, criticism during his early years with the re-brand etc. However, since the switch back to blue he's really got the club in order.
The general feeling is that this season is a freebie. We got promoted 2-3 seasons earlier than expected so we're here to enjoy the ride. If we stay up then great but if we go back down then, in Warnock, we have a manager that can get us back up and then he's openly admitted he'll hand over to another manager.
Simply switching managers doesn't always help. We are still actually performing better in games than our results suggest. We are a clinical striker away from being a mid-table team. The likes of Sean Dyche and Rafa Benitez have already said they don't think we'll go down because the manager clearly has the support of the dressing room.
We know people will continue to write us off and we're happy with that. This group of players thrive when written off. We've got nothing to lose. We'd rather give it a proper crack with Warnock than sack him off in favour of gambling on another manager for the sake of it.

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur -0 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor
The Tottenham price has drifted to the point where it's getting a little silly now. Pochettino's side are clearly a level above Wolves but the markets are pricing the away side as if they're a fading force in English football?!?!
As @thfc has mentioned; Spurs see the return of Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen and this will add another dimension to their attacking play. Alli in particular looked very dangerous when he came on against Man City and will look to exploit any spaces in Wolves backline, a backline I am still unconvinced by.
We must give credit to Wolves as they are well drilled, cohesive and play as a team. They are a midtable EPL side and will probably avoid the relegation dog fight this season. Despite this, they have a poor chance conversion rate and lack ruthless forwards for EPL level. Key attacking metrics rate Spurs over half a goal better than Wolves here. ELO ratings have the away team at just over a quarter of a goal ahead but we must bear in mind the recent absence of Alli and Eriksen, Tottenham's attacking performance is surely better when those two play.
Spurs with full draw cover @ 1.7 and above is worth backing in my view.

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur -0 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor
The Tottenham price has drifted to the point where it's getting a little silly now. Pochettino's side are clearly a level above Wolves but the markets are pricing the away side as if they're a fading force in English football?!?!
As @thfc has mentioned; Spurs see the return of Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen and this will add another dimension to their attacking play. Alli in particular looked very dangerous when he came on against Man City and will look to exploit any spaces in Wolves backline, a backline I am still unconvinced by.
We must give credit to Wolves as they are well drilled, cohesive and play as a team. They are a midtable EPL side and will probably avoid the relegation dog fight this season. Despite this, they have a poor chance conversion rate and lack ruthless forwards for EPL level. Key attacking metrics rate Spurs over half a goal better than Wolves here. ELO ratings have the away team at just over a quarter of a goal ahead but we must bear in mind the recent absence of Alli and Eriksen, Tottenham's attacking performance is surely better when those two play.
Spurs with full draw cover @ 1.7 and above is worth backing in my view.

October had gone so well until the final two sets of fixtures which were shocking. I tipped one draw up on Tuesday and it was a shame I didn't tip 6 more given all 7 games ended with the teams sharing a point. Pretty certain that hasn't happened to me before and it just shows that sometimes this game is all about small margins. Hopefully November can start well and I have 5 bets.
Harrogate v Chesterfield (National League)
On paper this is a harder game for Chesterfield than the Sutton game on Tuesday, but I still have a feeling that Harrogate are over achieving and although they won on Tuesday night beating Barrow 4-2, that did come on the back of only getting a point against Dover and then losing to Dagenham. What I said about Chesterfield on Tuesday night still stands here and whilst they keep drawing I think it is worth keeping backing the draw in their games. Whatever happens we are in profit from backing it now. Harrogate had also drawn their previous two home games prior to beating Barrow. The draw is 131/50 with Marathon.
Chelmsford v Eastbourne (National League South)
Chelmsford's home form has not been great so far this season having picked up just 6 points and only Truro and Weston have picked up fewer points at home. Their away form had been much better although they suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at Concord on Tuesday night. The league table tells you there isn't a great deal between quite a few teams in the division and having seen 7 of the teams in the league live I would have to agree. I saw Eastbourne get a draw at Gloucester a game which they should have won given Gloucester had gone down to ten men and they conceded with the last kick of the game. That match was part of a spell where getting a man sent off against Eastbourne was a benefit as they seemed to struggle once a team had a man sent off against them. I backed them in two of those games where they blew a lead against Dartford and then lost 4-2 to Slough. Strangely enough in the league their last away game was the Gloucester one at the end of September, but they are unbeaten in 6 away games although they have drawn 4 of them. Some people might want the draw on side, but for me the value is with an away win as I just can't see how Eastbourne can be as big as 100/30 (Bet365) to beat their hosts.
Barwell v Bedworth (Southern League Premier Central)
Unusually for me I have just the two bets in the 3 National Leagues and so the remaining 3 bets all come from Step 3 starting with this one. Bedworth look out of their depth in this league having failed to win so far and they have picked up just the 3 points. Only 1 of those points has come away from home and that 1-1 draw at Biggleswade was the only time they have conceded less than 2 goals on their travels. Barwell have only won once at home which was their last home league game against Banbury. However it is worth pointing out that they have had to play Stourbridge, Kettering, Royston who are the current top 3 and Alvechurch who are in 6th. In addition they only lost 3 of those games by one goal and they drew with Stourbridge. This is obviously by far their easiest home game of the season and overall they have only lost one of their last 6 games. They should be odds on for this so Marathon's 28/25 makes a fair bit of appeal.
Marine v Hyde (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Hyde struggled a bit to begin with back at this level, but they have really found their stride having lost just once in their last 7 league games. Darren Kelly seems to have got his team playing well and a 4-1 victory over South Shields recently was a particularly impressive result. Marine have only won 2 at home in the league this season and have only 2 wins in their last 9 league games. Hyde should be favourites to win this so the 7/4 with BetVictor appeals. 
Grantham v Warrington (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Grantham started the season really well, but things have taken a nosedive and even a change of manager doesn't seem to have changed things. Grantham have lost 6 league games on the bounce and lost 7-0 to Matlock in their last league game. Warrington have only lost three league games all season although 2 of those have come in their last 2 games including on Tuesday night when they lost 2-1 to Nantwich, but Nantwich are flying themselves at the moment. This is a much easier game and Warrington should get back to winning ways.
Harrogate v Chesterfield 1pt draw @ 131/50 with Marathon
Eastbourne 1pt @100/30 with Bet365
Barwell 3pts @ 28/25 with Marathon
Hyde 1pt @ 7/4 with BetVictor
Warrington 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor

It was from 2 days ago on sportingbet, the line dropped to 1.66 last I checked. Sorry about that.
Will probably end up at 1.55 on game day.

Middlesbrough V Crystal Palace
Jordan Hugill anytime goalscorer @ 3.8 Betway
I feel there is some added value in backing Hugill to score tonight. With the exception of Wan-Bissaka, Palace are fielding a second-string backline. Jairo Riedewald may well play at centre-back and he is notoriously bad in the air.
Hugill is decent with his ariel duels and is an indirect set-piece threat. If Boro can provide him with some good deliveries in the box then he can trouble Palace tonight.
Worth a punt, small stake.

Tottenham vs Manchester City
Well, it's a hell of a game to finish off the weekend's action with Tottenham hosting Manchester City at Wembley for this 8pm kick-off tonight. Liverpool and Chelsea both cranked up the pressure before this game by winning their respective matches so a loss for either team could be an early blow to their title hopes.
Tottenham have been navigating a difficult period recently. Below par performances both in the league and in Europe have left them scraping results and facing the prospect of premature elimination in the Champions League. Still, it's four wins on the trot for Mauricio Pochettino's men in the league and it's often said the best teams still get the wins when they're not at their best.
Manchester City appear to remain the force they were last season. The Citizens remain unbeaten this season and a win would see them move back to the top of the Premier League table. Pep Guardiola's men romped home as comfortable 3-1 winners last season in this fixture. Can they do the same again?
A few factors are to be considered here. Firstly, this game is being played just 24 hours after the NFL clash between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles. Will the worn pitch work against City's style of play? It's not like Tottenham are a hoof ball team though! Secondly, Tottenham have lost 10 of the last 15 meetings between these two sides. Thirdly, this fixture has seen an average of 4.2 goals scored per game since 2011/12.
However, despite this fixture boasting goals in the past it's worth noting that both teams have been excellent in the defensive department this season. Spurs have not conceded in over 270 minutes of league football. City possess the best defensive record in the league having conceded just 3 goals in their opening 9 matches and haven't conceded in more than 510 minutes of league action.
I think even though this is Tottenham's best ever start to a Premier League season they have benefited from a favourable fixture list having only played Liverpool and Manchester United out of the teams considered to be potential challengers to the top four. They lost one of those games and also lost to early in-form side Watford. I think this will be a tighter game than the previous meetings given the defensive solidarity of both sides but City should have enough to prevail.
Manchester City to Win @ 1.75 with Betstars
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.40 with Betfair

Saturday was a blank day. Aldershot and Halifax were poor, Dulwich could have won and somehow Stockport failed to beat a 10 man Nuneaton. It is a full fixture list in the 3 National League's on Tuesday and as much Tuesday's can be a nightmare I fancy 7 bets on the night.
Eastleigh v Leyton Orient
Eastleigh won their first game under their caretaker manager on Saturday when beating Halifax, but as mentioned above Halifax were poor and I don't think Eastleigh had to do much to beat them. This game is very different and Orient were superb in taking apart Havant on Saturday. The Havant manager said afterwards they were easily the best side they have played so far this season and with Salford having a mini wobble that 4-0 win took them back to the top of the table. I am amazed that Orient are drifting as I think they should be odds on to take this and Marathon's 127/100 makes plenty of appeal.
Ebbsfleet v Maidstone
I admit I am taking a bit of a chance here as Maidstone have lost their last 3 league games, but it is worth considering 3 things in this game. First of all Maidstone did manage to beat Leyton Orient in the FA Cup so that was a decent effort. Secondly Maidstone's away form has improved a little of late as they managed to beat Braintree and Aldershot before losing to AFC Fylde in their last 3 away matches. The 3rd point is Ebbsfleet's home form which is shocking as I have pointed out quite a few times on here of late. Now it was a great result to get a point at Salford on Saturday and the expected departures hasn't happened as of yet, but I can't overlook their dreadful away efforts. Maybe this being a derby might perk them up a bit, but I think that could be a factor for Maidstone as well and they are capable of pulling off a victory here. I am certainly happy to take a chance on an away win at 26/5 with Marathon.
Sutton v Chesterfield
Chesterfield are the draw specialists having now drawn their last 4 league games and 6 of their last 8 have been draws. The two defeats in that spell were when they couldn't defend against Gateshead and Maidenhead and conceded 3 goals in each game, but since those two they have defended much better and yet again have made themselves hard to beat. They did manage to beat AFC Fylde in the FA Cup, but as we know in the league they can't buy a win. They tried hard against Wrexham on Saturday, but they just couldn't find a winning goal however hard they tried. Sutton have drawn 3 of their last 5 home matches with the other two games being the two freak results of losing 4-0 to Boreham Wood and then beating Wrexham 3-0. I know there are 14 points between the two sides, but I suspect in reality there probably isn't that much between the two teams. I rarely put up a draw, but I do think it looks the value play in this game and at 13/5 with Bet365 it is worth a bet.
AFC Telford v Hereford
Neither of these sides have been winning much in recent weeks as after a cracking start to the season Telford had a bit of a blip by not winning in 5 (although they did draw with leaders Chorley), but they were back to winning ways when coming from a goal down against in form York to win 2-1 on Saturday thanks to a late winner. They still sit in the play-off places whereas Hereford sit one place outside the relegation zone having only picked up two points in their last 9 games. New manager Marc Richard's hasn't really seen an improvement from his side so far and Boston put 3 past them on Saturday. To be fair Hereford were the better side in the first half, but they couldn't make it count and were very much 2nd best in the 2nd. The goal on Saturday was only their 3 on the road so far this season and I am surprised that Telford are as big as 7/5 (Bet365) as I would have them as stronger favourites.
FCUM v Alfreton
Going to take a chance on FUCM here as they have shown improvement in their last couple of games. The new manager only started on Saturday and he oversaw a 1-1 draw with Brackley which was a good effort, but last week they caused a huge upset when winning at 2nd place Kidderminster. They haven't won at home yet, but I wouldn't read too much into that given how poor they have been for most of the season. Alfreton have now lost 5 on the bounce in the league and although it was a late winner from Chester to beat them 3-2 on Saturday that will have been a painful defeat to take on the back of the other loses in the league. At 13/5 with Bet365 I think the home side are a sporting bet.
Southport v Curzon Ashton
Quite why the bookies continue to price up Southport so short I am not sure given they are bottom of the table. They are by far my worst ante-post tip of the season given they were my main selection for the title and I can't believe how badly they have done. Their only league win was a 4-1 victory over Nuneaton which sums up their season really. Curzon have only lost to Boston in their last 6 games and they sit in 2nd place in the away table in the league and are only behind Chorley on goal difference. Also Chorley are the only side they have lost to on their travels. For them to be over 3/1 to beat the bottom side seems bonkers to me.
Weston-Super-Mare v Torquay
One of the strangest results of the season so far was Weston beating Bath in the FA Cup last week because Bath should have been way too strong for them. Weston only have 2 points in the league and were bad yet again on Saturday. I wasn't sure Gary Johnson was the right fit for Torquay, but he has really transformed them so far and got them scoring goals which was something they weren't doing before. Impressive again at the weekend and I just don't see how they don't pick up another 3 points here. Both sides are in the FA Cup 1st Round, but that is going to be the highlight of Weston's season so no surprise if the players have one eye on that.
Leyton Orient 2.5pts @ 127/100 with Marathon
Maidstone 1pt @ 26/5 with Marathon
Sutton v Chestefield 1pt draw @ 13/5 with Bet365
AFC Telford 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
FCUM 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
Torquay 4pts @ 47/50 with Marathon

As much as I thought Solihull weren't the relegation candidates the bookies had them down as being I am just not sure they will stay in the play-offs especially as they don't have a lot of depth. I got Gateshead wrong yesterday, but again I think they will find it tough to stay in the play-offs. Harrogate are interesting as they have over achieved for sure so far and that's two poor results now in the league.I backed Barnet pre-season and I still think they can be up there although the title is probably beyond them, but they have had a lot of injuries. Could be worth keeping an eye on Dagenham as they clearly have a lot of money to spend based on last week and I suspect their will be more players to come. 

I'm with you on this one, 100%, your insight of the lower English divisions is second to none. I'm keen on following your picks myself, as I also did yesterday.
I wouldn't go as far as to say that Asian sindicates wager only on stats based models. They often work with scouts' networks on the ground. My points is that there are so many variables in modern game which one needs to take into consideration that can easily affect the prices. And having inside info on the day the game is being played can shift the odds by a large margin.
 
 

I have often had people tell me about a team I’ve backed who have drifted and still won. I’d much rather back teams based on my own eyes rather than stats which I think are very suspect for non-league especially the lower down you go. I’m pretty certain I know more about non-league football than people in Asia.

Last Saturday it was good to get 3 upsets (I am counting Dover as an upset as they were the outsiders) in the FA Cup and that is why I love punting on that competition. The 4th Qualifying Round and the 1st Round are the two favourite weekends for me as I love the chance to land a few big prices and I look forward to seeing what the 1st Round brings in a couple of weeks. Tuesday night saw a profit on the 3 bets as well so it continues to be a profitable month. Saturday sees the Step 3 clubs in FA Trophy action and as only BetVictor have priced them up I am not getting involved so it is 3 bets and a double for me across the 3 National Leagues.
Gateshead v Aldershot
I think the away side are a huge price to win this. Gateshead's home form has been a bit shaky of late. They lost 3 on the bounce to Harrogate, Braintree and Eastleigh before beating Dagenham 2-0 in their last home league match. That form doesn't add up to an awful lot and I think they are flattered a bit by their current position in the play-off positions. Both these sides are in the FA Cup 1st Round although it is fair to say Aldershot certainly had the tougher afternoon seeing off a good Kettering side. As much as Aldershot have improved of late I wasn't surprised by the fact that Kettering gave them a good game because they are looking really good in the league this season and as they proved have it in them to create a National League side problems. Aldershot had enough class in the end though to see them off and it continued their big improvement in form which I wrote about a couple of weeks ago when putting them up to beat Eastleigh. These two sides are much closer together than a price of 14/5 (BetVictor) suggests and to be honest I think Aldershot will turn out to be the better side come April.
Halifax v Eastleigh
I think there is just enough in the Halifax price to get involved here. I have opposed Eastleigh in both games so far since Hessenthaler left and it has proven very profitable with them losing to Aldershot and then when they got knocked out of the FA Cup by Hampton & Richmond last weekend. I suspected they wouldn't be able to sustain the progress they had made under him and it has been correct so far. As I pointed out when I put up Halifax a couple of weeks ago they love to draw at the moment although I thought they did well to beat Warrington in the FA Cup replay on Tuesday night after Warrington had outplayed them in the first game. I think its a good time to be playing Eastleigh at the moment and Halifax could finally get that league victory. At 161/100 with Marathon I think there is enough in the price to take it especially as they are drifting at the time of writing.
Billericay v Dulwich
I still believe Billericay will win the league, but having seen them for myself a couple of weeks ago I think they are worth opposing here. Gloucester deserved at least a point and Billericay backed off Gloucester in the 2nd half allowing them plenty of possession and thus allowing them to create chances. They then had two games against Taunton and they were a bit fortunate to get a replay as Taunton missed a penalty in the first game and then they only won 1-0 on Wednesday night. They obviously have plenty of attacking talent, but Jake Robinson broke a toe in the first Taunton game and any side will miss his goals. These two sides have history given they were going for the title last season and Dulwich won this fixture last season. The Dulwich players and fans will be in a positive frame of mind after it was announced earlier in the week that they can return to Champion Hill although to be honest I don't think the players would need any incentive to beat Billericay anyway. They have had a couple of weeks off which should help and I was surprised to see footage of the Billericay players celebrating the win over Taunton as heavily as they were given in less than 72 hours they had a big league game. Dulwich are in a false position in the table and on their day I think they are capable of beating anyone in the division and at 7/2 (BetVictor) they are the value play in this.
Leyton Orient v Havant & Waterlooville/Stockport v Nuneaton
The home double here pays 37/25 with Marthon and makes plenty of appeal. Orient were surprisingly knocked out of the FA Cup by Maidstone last week, but at least they weren't knocked out by a team two leagues below like Havant who lost to the Met Police. Orient should win this as Havant continue to struggle to get a victory. In the National League North Stockport should be beating a Nuneaton team who might not be around this time next week. They are in a sorry state off the pitch and although they have been battling well on it they then went and lost 6-0 to Bradford Park Avenue last Saturday. I think the players might now be thinking they are fighting a lost cause and I'm not sure going to a big ground like Stockport is ideal in the situation they are in.
Aldershot 2pts @14/5 with BetVictor
Halifax 1pt @ 161/100 with Marathon
Dulwich 1pt @ 7/2 with BetVictor
Leyton Orient/Stockport 2pts double @ 37/25 with Marathon

Burnley V Chelsea
Burnley +1.5 AH @ 1.84 Betvictor
I feel Burnley have the attributes to make this game difficult for Chelsea. Sean Dyche's side have had a tricky start to their EPL campaign; injuries to key players and a disruptive Europa League schedule have not helped. Performances have improved in recent games with key players returning from injury and I expect Burnley to once again be a tough opponent at Turf Moor, even against the EPL's big guns.
Chelsea have had a very good start to their EPL campaign under Maurizio Sarri. Their short passing style has been both entertaining and effective. The problem for them here is that they face a team who can disrupt their rhythm with a long passing game, aiming to win second balls with superior ariel strength. Of course we should expect Chelsea to have the lion share of possession and create the lion share of chances but the markets have the away team very short here in my view.
Let's not forget that Chelsea have a Europa League game on Thursday evening and although it shouldn't be too much of an issue with the depth of squad they have, it will shorten the preparation time they have for a potentially awkward EPL away trip.
To summarise, the 5-0 drubbing at City last week may have skewed the Burnley price somewhat here. Chelsea are indeed a good team and rightly favourites but to have them shorter than 1.4 at Turf Moor comming off the back of a Europa League game seems a bit overzealous to me. This particular away trip is a potential banana skin for Chelsea in my view. ELO ratings are in line with current market valuations but other key goal metrics do not favour Chelsea to the same degree.
Burnley +1.5 AH @ 1.7 or above is worth backing in my view.

Club Brugge V AS Monaco
AS Monaco +0.50 AH @ 1.775 Betvictor
I don't really rate Club Brugge but the markets have made them significant favourites here against a struggling Monaco side. Monaco have a clear quality advantage in my view and sooner or later their results should revert to the mean. The sacking of Leonardo Jardim was a little harsh in some peoples view and Thierry Henry is unproven as a manager. Despite this, Henry has already looked to inject fresh impetus into the teams style of play and this may well contribute to improving Monaco's form.
I have taken the away team on the +0.50 line as CF Radamel Falcao is an injury doubt for this game. If he manages to make the team then Monaco +0.25 can be taken into consideration. As it is I will back Monaco not to loose here.
This match can be a platform for Monaco to improve their confidence and form. They should view it as an opportunity to pick up somekind of positive result against an inferior opponent.

First of all I agree with @sajtion that this is a really poor card for betting. First week back from international breaks can be tough but I would say this is the worst EPL card I have seen so far this season.
With regards to the early game, Chelsea are not a whole goal better than Man U in terms of attacking metrics. If you look at the ELO ratings you can see even less disparity. The big problem is Utd's defence which has been shoddy all season, board should have backed Mourinho in the summer with defensive aquisitions. There are also fitness doubts over some important defensive players for Utd this weekend.
Despite this, I do think Utd on +1 AH line is worth a small punt @ 1.7 or above. It's a highly speculative play given the circumstances but to get them with a whole goal advantage does give us a nice buffer in my view. Not quite a shot to nothing as Utd are always capable of imploding in the current climate but as others have said they are also capable of exposing Chelsea's vulnerabilities here.
Manchester Utd +1.0 AH @ 1.72 Betvictor > LOW STAKE!!!

Hopefully I can continue the good form so far this month on Tuesday night and I have 3 bets in the Bostik Premier.
Folkestone v Carshalton
The home side had a superb season last time around and were in the title race until late on. I did think it might be a one off and although they started fairly well they have not been in great form in recent weeks. They have only won once in their last 7 games, in fairness that was a good win over 4th place Bognor, and have lost 5 of them including on Saturday when they lost 2-0 to Lewes. Carshalton have won back to back games and they have a fair chance of being able to make it 3 I think. In my view there isn't a great deal between these two sides and Marathon go a shade over 2/1 on an away win and that is just big enough for me to play.
Potters Bar Town v Bishops Stortford
The away side are turning into a bit of a surprise package and having started poorly they are in a rich vein of form at the moment. They are unbeaten in 6 and that includes a win at the league leaders Tonbridge and they were impressive in beating Corinthian-Casuals 3-0 on Saturday. Potters Bar aren't doing too badly after gaining promotion last season, but they won their first two games and have only managed to win 2 of their following 10. It is hard to see how the away team have been priced up at 2/1 for this as the Essex side have plenty of confidence at the moment and they look a fair bet here.
Whitehawk v Lewes
The home side were one of the ante-post favs for this league, but I believed that with Steve King leaving they would have no chance and that is exactly how it has turned out. They have only won twice all season and are just two points away from the relegation zone. It is also worth highlighting that their two wins this season have been against the bottom two sides in the division Harlow and Burgess Hill. They lost 6-0 on Saturday at Enfield. Lewes on the other-hand are having a good season and will fancy themselves to be in the play-off hunt. They have only conceded 3 times on the road this season and their only two defeats after their opening day loss have been by 1 goal, which included a 7 goal thriller against a good side in Worthing. As mentioned above they had another good win at the weekend over Folkestone and they will fancy themselves to win this. Marathon go 59/50 about an away win.
Carshalton 1pt @101/50 with Marathon
Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 2/1 with Marathon
Lewes 1pt @ 59/50 with Marathon

Wilf is a bit isolated at the moment, him and Townsend are having to put in mega shifts without much support. If Connor Wickham stays fit it will be like having a new player, but it's a big if.

First of all I agree with @sajtion that this is a really poor card for betting. First week back from international breaks can be tough but I would say this is the worst EPL card I have seen so far this season.
With regards to the early game, Chelsea are not a whole goal better than Man U in terms of attacking metrics. If you look at the ELO ratings you can see even less disparity. The big problem is Utd's defence which has been shoddy all season, board should have backed Mourinho in the summer with defensive aquisitions. There are also fitness doubts over some important defensive players for Utd this weekend.
Despite this, I do think Utd on +1 AH line is worth a small punt @ 1.7 or above. It's a highly speculative play given the circumstances but to get them with a whole goal advantage does give us a nice buffer in my view. Not quite a shot to nothing as Utd are always capable of imploding in the current climate but as others have said they are also capable of exposing Chelsea's vulnerabilities here.
Manchester Utd +1.0 AH @ 1.72 Betvictor > LOW STAKE!!!

Last weekend was really good and the double on Tuesday night kept things ticking over nicely. 64 teams on Saturday will be hoping they are in the hat for Monday nights FA Cup 1st Round draw and finally the bookies have woken up to offering odds on the competition. I have 5 bets in the FA Cup and also one bet in the National League South.
Concord Rangers v Dover
If this game had taken place a couple of weeks ago I would have backed the home side, however Andy Hessenthaler had an instant impact on Dover last weekend. They should have beaten Harrogate last Saturday having been the better side for most of the game especially in the 2nd half. It was only a 95th minute equaliser which lead to them only getting a point. This was a huge improvement on the performances Dover have been putting in this season if they can repeat that then I think they can get into the 1st Round. Concord got off to a really good start in National League South, but their form of late has not been great and they have only managed to beat Truro in their last 7 league games. They do have a good squad so at their best they can make things tricky for Dover, but like I say if Dover can get anywhere near the level they did in Hessenthaler's first game in charge then I can't see anything but a Dover win. Bet365 are best price on a Dover win at 15/8.
Eastleigh v Hampton & Richmond
I took Hessenthaler's former club on last week and it proved a profitable decision and I am going to take them on again here. Granted they were facing an improving Aldershot side, but I do get the feeling that Hessenthaler leaving has had an effect on the team and it has put a stop to the improvement they were making. I think that could leave them vulnerable to a Cup upset especially to a side like Hampton. They had won 5 games on the bounce in the league, but have lost their last two. The first was against league leaders Billericay though who were superb against them and then they lost to Wealdstone last Saturday which was their first away defeat of the season although it wasn't helped by a red card in the 2nd half. They have the capability to cause Eastleigh problems and it might just be the right time to be playing them. Marathon are 13/4 about an away win.
Ebbsfleet v Worthing
To be fair to Ebbsfleet it sounds like they were a little unlucky to lose to Solihull although regular readers will know they have been much better on their travels than they have been at home and I am sure they are far from looking forward to this match which looks a potential Cup upset. Worthing maybe two levels below their hosts on Saturday, but they are having a superb season so far. They have only lost once in the league and are just one point behind the leaders in 2nd place. Worthing should be looking forward to this as I would love to be playing Ebbsfleet at home at the moment given how lacklustre they are on their own pitch at the moment. They will obviously be high on confidence as well and there is a huge amount of pressure on Ebbsfleet to avoid defeat and manager Daryl McMahon could be out of a job if they lose this. The 7/1 with BetVictor about an away win makes plenty appeal.
Met Police v Havant & Waterlooville
I think the home side could cause an upset against a Havant side who are struggling for wins. Obviously this is an easier match than they are used to playing in the league, but travelling to a side who are making themselves hard to beat. They have only lost two games in the league so far this season and although they have drawn more than they have won, they had a great 4-1 win over Taunton 3 weeks ago and last weekend they were involved in a 4-4 thriller with Basingstoke. I love taking on teams who have a lot of pressure on because they are struggling in their league especially when they are playing away at teams who are capable on their day of causing on upset and this game fits the bill. If you can get a bet on with Boylesports then they are 15/4 otherwise it is 7/2 with BetVictor and Betway.
Warrington v Halifax
Warrington had won 7 league games on the bounce prior to just their 2nd defeat of the season last weekend against Matlock. They didn't play well and maybe they had their minds on this game because they have a real chance of causing an upset and getting through to the 1st Round. I didn't think there was a great deal of quality on show in the Halifax v Chesterfield game on the TV last weekend and as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago Halifax's away form is poor with just one win so far this season. Warrington made the play-offs last season and they are now favourites for the title this time around after their superb start to the season. I wouldn't want to go too much lower, but I think there is value in BetVictor's and Betway's 2/1 on a home win.
FA Cup Acca
I like 4 odds on shots to win on Saturday. It is hard to see Salford or Torquay failing to beat Marine or Winchester respectively and they both look bankers. Boreham Wood host Dagenham & Redbridge and given how off the pace Dagenham look at the moment it really should be a home win especially given how strong Boreham Wood are at home. The final tie also features two sides from the same division as Weston-Super-Mare host Bath. Weston are still yet to win in the league and they have had a very easy passage to this stage of the competition. It looks a great chance for Bath, who have won 7 out of their last 10 league games, to reach the 1st Round. The acca pays around 4.7/1 with Marathon.
Dartford v Dulwich
I think Dulwich are a big price at 13/5 for this as I think Dulwich are the better side. Now Dartford have only lost one game in their last 6, but they have beaten East Turrock and Weston who are both in the relegation zone and have only 8 points between them so far this season. They were fortunate to get points against Eastbourne and Billericay and they beat Chippenham last week, but the winner came from their keeper whose kick was helped by the strong wind. Dulwich have really hit their stride now they have got used to the league and have only lost once in their last 6 games, winning their last 3. One of those victories was a win at Woking so going to another of the league's bigger teams won't bother them at all. I think they have a much better chance than their odds of 13/5 with Bet365 suggest.
Dover 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365
Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 13/4 with Marathon
Worthing 1pt @ 7/1 with BetVictor
Met Police 1pt @ 15/4 with Boylesports
Warrington 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor and Betway
Salford/Torquay/Boreham Wood/Bath 1pt acca @ 4/7/1 with Marathon
Dulwich 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365