Non-League Predictions > October 27th

[Darran]

Last Saturday it was good to get 3 upsets (I am counting Dover as an upset as they were the outsiders) in the FA Cup and that is why I love punting on that competition. The 4th Qualifying Round and the 1st Round are the two favourite weekends for me as I love the chance to land a few big prices and I look forward to seeing what the 1st Round brings in a couple of weeks. Tuesday night saw a profit on the 3 bets as well so it continues to be a profitable month. Saturday sees the Step 3 clubs in FA Trophy action and as only BetVictor have priced them up I am not getting involved so it is 3 bets and a double for me across the 3 National Leagues.

Gateshead v Aldershot

I think the away side are a huge price to win this. Gateshead's home form has been a bit shaky of late. They lost 3 on the bounce to Harrogate, Braintree and Eastleigh before beating Dagenham 2-0 in their last home league match. That form doesn't add up to an awful lot and I think they are flattered a bit by their current position in the play-off positions. Both these sides are in the FA Cup 1st Round although it is fair to say Aldershot certainly had the tougher afternoon seeing off a good Kettering side. As much as Aldershot have improved of late I wasn't surprised by the fact that Kettering gave them a good game because they are looking really good in the league this season and as they proved have it in them to create a National League side problems. Aldershot had enough class in the end though to see them off and it continued their big improvement in form which I wrote about a couple of weeks ago when putting them up to beat Eastleigh. These two sides are much closer together than a price of 14/5 (BetVictor) suggests and to be honest I think Aldershot will turn out to be the better side come April.

Halifax v Eastleigh

I think there is just enough in the Halifax price to get involved here. I have opposed Eastleigh in both games so far since Hessenthaler left and it has proven very profitable with them losing to Aldershot and then when they got knocked out of the FA Cup by Hampton & Richmond last weekend. I suspected they wouldn't be able to sustain the progress they had made under him and it has been correct so far. As I pointed out when I put up Halifax a couple of weeks ago they love to draw at the moment although I thought they did well to beat Warrington in the FA Cup replay on Tuesday night after Warrington had outplayed them in the first game. I think its a good time to be playing Eastleigh at the moment and Halifax could finally get that league victory. At 161/100 with Marathon I think there is enough in the price to take it especially as they are drifting at the time of writing.

Billericay v Dulwich

I still believe Billericay will win the league, but having seen them for myself a couple of weeks ago I think they are worth opposing here. Gloucester deserved at least a point and Billericay backed off Gloucester in the 2nd half allowing them plenty of possession and thus allowing them to create chances. They then had two games against Taunton and they were a bit fortunate to get a replay as Taunton missed a penalty in the first game and then they only won 1-0 on Wednesday night. They obviously have plenty of attacking talent, but Jake Robinson broke a toe in the first Taunton game and any side will miss his goals. These two sides have history given they were going for the title last season and Dulwich won this fixture last season. The Dulwich players and fans will be in a positive frame of mind after it was announced earlier in the week that they can return to Champion Hill although to be honest I don't think the players would need any incentive to beat Billericay anyway. They have had a couple of weeks off which should help and I was surprised to see footage of the Billericay players celebrating the win over Taunton as heavily as they were given in less than 72 hours they had a big league game. Dulwich are in a false position in the table and on their day I think they are capable of beating anyone in the division and at 7/2 (BetVictor) they are the value play in this.

Leyton Orient v Havant & Waterlooville/Stockport v Nuneaton

The home double here pays 37/25 with Marthon and makes plenty of appeal. Orient were surprisingly knocked out of the FA Cup by Maidstone last week, but at least they weren't knocked out by a team two leagues below like Havant who lost to the Met Police. Orient should win this as Havant continue to struggle to get a victory. In the National League North Stockport should be beating a Nuneaton team who might not be around this time next week. They are in a sorry state off the pitch and although they have been battling well on it they then went and lost 6-0 to Bradford Park Avenue last Saturday. I think the players might now be thinking they are fighting a lost cause and I'm not sure going to a big ground like Stockport is ideal in the situation they are in.

Aldershot 2pts @14/5 with BetVictor

Halifax 1pt @ 161/100 with Marathon

Dulwich 1pt @ 7/2 with BetVictor

Leyton Orient/Stockport 2pts double @ 37/25 with Marathon

[mijOsim]

What about Salford to win? They werent good against Braintree. Dont know much about Ebbsfleet. They dont have good results recently.

[Darran]

Salford weren’t great against Marine either. I was expecting players to leave Ebbsfleet this week but it hasnt happened yet. Their away form has been much better than their home form as well and all in all it’s enough to put me off.

[mijOsim]

2 hours ago, Darran said:

Salford weren’t great against Marine either. I was expecting players to leave Ebbsfleet this week but it hasnt happened yet. Their away form has been much better than their home form as well and all in all it’s enough to put me off.

Do you think Salford can score 2+ here? I dont have luck with them. Still, ebbsfleet dont have some great defense.

[Marek76]

Odds on Dulwich have drifted up at my local bookie's. You still favour the guests @Darran?

[yossa6133]

I listened to salford vs Marine and they had plenty of chances.

[Darran]

8 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

I listened to salford vs Marine and they had plenty of chances.

As you would expect but Marine gave them a scare for sure and they were below par against Braintree. If you asked me who I think will win it would be Salford but I wouldn’t want to be backing them.

[Darran]

3 hours ago, Marek76 said:

Odds on Dulwich have drifted up at my local bookie's. You still favour the guests @Darran?

Yep. I’ve long learnt not to pay attention to odds. Very often it’s linked to Asian money who base their bets purely on stats based models. Obviously Billericay are the right favs but I think, like the Woking game I took them on in, that Dulwich are value to beat them and they have it in them to do so.

[Nobby's Nuts]

Subject to the usual caveat as to what teams will be turned out, the following attracted my attention in the FAT (all I think with BVictor) given my regular NPL and SLC watching/punting.

Hednesford 5-4 at AFC Mansfield. One step above and Hednesford are a solid team, very hard to break down.

Barwell 2-1 home v Coalville (who are on a bad run)

Halesowen 11-4 at Grantham (who lost their last game under new manager 7-0 and in a mini-crisis). Both play at Step 3. Major rick.

Redditch 11-4 at Mickleover (who are also struggling- no goals for 3 games- essentially relegation material in NPL v relegation material in SLC, so the value is Redditch.

Matlock at St Neots at 3-1 (NAP). Matlock are flying since Dave Frecklington (ex Gainsboro) took over and administered the said 7-0 thumping to Grantham. The FAT always means a lot to Matlock due to being ex-winners.

Rushall 3-1 at Stafford (really seems that the layers don't rate SLC). Stafford are no great shakes at the moment.

Whitby evens home to Witton. Whitby in a great vein of form.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2018 by Nobby's Nuts
Typo

[cc135]

Barrow vs Barnet (2) DNB 1.89 1u

Barnet played a good game last game, winning Solihull Moors by two goals in a deserved win. Tomorrow they face Barrow, who lost vs Bromley and did not create much in that game. Barnet have lost three games so far and let in 7 goals in all their away games. However, those 3 losses came against Wrexham, Leyton Orient and Harrogate 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the league and 6 of the 7 goals conceded were against them. Barnet have already played Bromley, Barrow's opponent last week,  and in that game, were deserved victors.

[Marek76]

16 hours ago, Darran said:

Yep. I’ve long learnt not to pay attention to odds. Very often it’s linked to Asian money who base their bets purely on stats based models. Obviously Billericay are the right favs but I think, like the Woking game I took them on in, that Dulwich are value to beat them and they have it in them to do so.

 

I get your point but while working in the industry I've learnt that in many cases (lower leagues) it's profitable to follow the money

Right now I can see odds dropping (30-20%) on the following: 

Truro City (2.98) - Dartford (Conf North) 

Eastbourne Borough (2.06) - Hemel (Conf South)

Chester - Afreton Town (3.17) (Conf North) 

Let's see how these 3 pan out. 

 

Edited October 27, 2018 by Marek76
odds added

[Darran]

22 minutes ago, Marek76 said:

 

I get your point but while working in the industry I've learnt that in many cases (lower leagues) it's profitable to follow the money

Right now I can see odds dropping (30-20%) on the following: 

Truro City (2.98) - Dartford (Conf North) 

Eastbourne Borough (2.06) - Hemel (Conf South)

Chester - Afreton Town (3.17) (Conf North) 

Let's see how these 3 pan out. 

 

I have often had people tell me about a team I’ve backed who have drifted and still won. I’d much rather back teams based on my own eyes rather than stats which I think are very suspect for non-league especially the lower down you go. I’m pretty certain I know more about non-league football than people in Asia.

[cc135]

Maidenhead United vs AFC Fylde (2) -0.25 1.88 1u

Maidenhead missing Kelly, Clifton and Upward, all are key players, Kelly and Clifton topscorers. Fylde with a good lineup, sould win this eventually.

[yossa6133]

Just need a Salford goal for a decent acca as it stands.

[yossa6133]

Stockport conceding against 10 men hurt. Apparently Salford played ok but didn't create a huge amount.

[buga00]

Salford is losing initial booster of season

 

[Marek76]

9 hours ago, Darran said:

I have often had people tell me about a team I’ve backed who have drifted and still won. I’d much rather back teams based on my own eyes rather than stats which I think are very suspect for non-league especially the lower down you go. I’m pretty certain I know more about non-league football than people in Asia.

I'm with you on this one, 100%, your insight of the lower English divisions is second to none. I'm keen on following your picks myself, as I also did yesterday.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that Asian sindicates wager only on stats based models. They often work with scouts' networks on the ground. My points is that there are so many variables in modern game which one needs to take into consideration that can easily affect the prices. And having inside info on the day the game is being played can shift the odds by a large margin.

 

 

[Mindfulness]

9 hours ago, Marek76 said:

My points is that there are so many variables in modern game which one needs to take into consideration that can easily affect the prices. And having inside info on the day the game is being played can shift the odds by a large margin.

 

 

It doesn't really matter though as most bettors don't know which way the big asian syndicates are gonna move. Also, your methodology would be compromised as soon as you were no longer privy to said information.

If you want to be an independent and successful gambler in the long run then it's better to be able to find and assess valuation errors yourself. If you're able to do that consistently and effectively then what other people do in the market is irrelevant.

[Mindfulness]

@Darran

Just in terms of the national league; are there any teams you think are punching above their weight at present and will fade as the season progresses? Similarly, any teams which are underperforming at present and should climb the table as the season progresses?

[Darran]

7 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

@Darran

Just in terms of the national league; are there any teams you think are punching above their weight at present and will fade as the season progresses? Similarly, any teams which are underperforming at present and should climb the table as the season progresses?

As much as I thought Solihull weren't the relegation candidates the bookies had them down as being I am just not sure they will stay in the play-offs especially as they don't have a lot of depth. I got Gateshead wrong yesterday, but again I think they will find it tough to stay in the play-offs. Harrogate are interesting as they have over achieved for sure so far and that's two poor results now in the league.I backed Barnet pre-season and I still think they can be up there although the title is probably beyond them, but they have had a lot of injuries. Could be worth keeping an eye on Dagenham as they clearly have a lot of money to spend based on last week and I suspect their will be more players to come.