Xcout

3:0 FT 

Legia Warsaw vs Spartak Trnava
2018, July 24, 21:00 (CET Time)
Champions League Qualifying
Legia Warsaw arrives to this fixture after defeating Cork City by winning both games. They won the first leg by the minimum, which allowed them to face with a little ease the match at home for the second leg, where they won 3-0.
Legia wants to return to participate in the group stage of the Champions League, the last time they did was in 2016-2017 and shared a group with Real Madrid, Borussi Dortmund, and Sporting CP. His most outstanding result was a 3-3 draw at home against Real Madrid, as well as a 1-0 victory against Sporting CP. However, the defeats against Borussia were key to not advancing, but the were able to play Europa League, where Ajax eliminated him.
While the match does not come at the best time because they lost the Super Cup to Arka, and after the first league game defeat against Zaglebie, players will appreciate having a new opportunity. And seek to recover from these adverse results.
In European qualifiers they usually give good games at home, where they usually win, and sometimes for more than one goal difference,emphasizes that his rivals rarely score more than one goal.
The Trnava for its part eliminated the Bosnian Zrinjski, won the first leg at home for the minimum, and in the return took advantage of the lead, that although the game ended tied thanks to the first leg goal manage to advance to this fixture.
In 1996 was the last occasion that Trnava dispute stage of groups at European level, the time they got nearer was in 2014-2015 where they play the round of Playoff, but they lost against FC Zurich. It has been characterized in its eliminatory matches by being difficult at away, obtaining important ties or losing by a one goal. The last time they lost by more than one goal in a foreign playground was 0-2 against Lokomotiv Moscow in 2011-2012.
This will be the first match between them.
For the game considering the odds, I find that the best option is to take the home side with an Asian handicap of -1.25 with a medium stake. Since although the local can obtain the victory, I consider that the Trnava was will focus on defense in order to avoid a considerable defeat for the second leg. But the Legia will seek to get a good start on the eliminatory.
Legia Warsaw -1.25 AH with 5 units @ 1.98 at Dafabet

Crvena zvezda - Suduva

After knocking out Spartaks from Latvia in R1,Serbian champion Crvena zvezda (Red Star) will face Lithuanian team Suduva.
It`s not a opponent that we expected but Suduva made a suprise by knocking out APOEL from Nicosia.

Honestly i don`t know much about Suduva. They are probably team with better quality then our previous opponent but still they are coming from same region,same `football school` and because of that i expect a similar perfornance from them. Thet means a strong defensive performance and they`ll probably park the bus tonight on our biggest stadium - the famous Belgrade`s `Marakana`.

Crvena zvezda,former European Champion,is trying to revive some of glory days from the past. I hope and wish that last season was first step toward to that.
After successful Europa League campaign club is now aiming to reach Champions League group stage. It`s a difficult task,but not completely unrealistic. After all - our biggest club must have big ambitions.

One of biggest problems Crvena zvezda is facing is low budget (comparing to European competition) and because of that we`re forced to sell players very often. That`s exactly what happened from January transfer window to this one. Many players left the club but two of them were especially important - Gelor Kanga (midfielder,playing no.10 role) and Richmond Boakye (forward).
We have also sold Pesic who was Srbian`s league top-scorer.

Kanga`s replacement is Lorenzo Ebecillio,a Dutch player who came from APOEL. He`s not fully prepared and still didn`t fit with rest of the team and because of this his impact on the game is not yet so visible.
For Boakye we didn`t find replacement. Club menagement is still working on that.
In front of a goal we can expect very talented but inexperienced  youngster Joveljic (at age of 19 he`s compared with David Trezeguet) or Pavkov who is very limited player in term of quality.
So it`s obvious that our offensive still suffer a bit and not efficient enough.

On the other side - Zvezda`s backline suffered small change. Instead of Damian le Tallec we brought Milos Degenek,Aussie international who was with his national team recently in Russia.
Our defence didn`t concede a single goal in three official matches of the new season.
Expected line-up
Borjan
Stojkovic-Savic-Degenek-Rodic
Krsicic-Ebicillio-Jovicic
Ben-Pavkov(Joveljic)-Radonjic

Even with small problems considering building new team,Crvena zvezda is clear favorite not just in tonight`s match,but in this two leg tie.
Coach Milojevic will demand more cautious approach with an idea to win this match with clean sheet if possible.
And that`s exactly what i expect to happen.

Crvena zvezda to win to nil @1.80 (local)






 

Dinamo Zagreb will have 9 new players in first 11, and they didnt play official game this season.
Thatswhy odds on home win are so high.
Dinamo certainly have quality to pass Hapoel, but also this is not game for higher stake. 

Sturm Graz +1.25AH @2.16 (and still rising) is good value bet in my opinion. I don't see why Ajax is seen as a big/huge favorite here. The friendlies, even with strong(est) line-ups, didn't show anything promising. Lack of creativity. First 'real' match of the season and Ajax is simply not ready.
Sturm Graz on the other hand had a decent prep-campaign (not real tough opponents) and will try to get a result here. Draw is enough. I expect them to park the bus and I don't see Ajax getting trough with more than +1 goal (if they get trough at all).

I posted the above back at the end of May and it’s worth flagging up again. Jeonbuk are still available at 6/1 to win the ACL outright and since the resumption of the K-League they have gone 4-1-0 including a 3-0 victory away at QF opponents Suwon

The 6/1 available about Jeonbuk Motors to win the ACL Outright represents excellent vlaue. So-called Chinese powerhouses Guangzhou Evergrande and Shanghai SIPG have already crashed out of this seasons competition pathing the way for Jeonbuk, a side who topmy Korean ratings, from a nation that have won 4 of the last 9 renewals within a region that has won 8 of the last 9 finals. They play fellow Koreans Suwon Bluewings in the Quarter Finals, if their league match prices are anyting to go by they'll be favs for this, they'll meet Tianjin or Kashima in the semis, they were favs both home and away to Tianjin in the group stages whilst Kashima and Suwon shared favouritsim when they met in the group stages suggesting Jeonbuk will be favourites should they meet the Japanese side. As already stated the Eastern region has won 8 of the last 9 finals so you have got to have the Eastern side favs going into that.
In the other half of the draw the top 2 sides in Iran meet the top 2 sides in Qatar  - for me the slight edge goes to the Qatari sides who since 2013/14 lead the head to head over Iranian sides 12-11-8, over this samer period Qatari sides have an overall win rate of 0.560 comapred to 0.510 of Iran.

Trying to have a look at MLS after a month of World Cup action.
Toronto FC is in a bad shape but I noticed the odds for them to win at Chicago Fire dropped in the last couple of hours. The most probable reason - key players returning from long-term injuries: Mavinga, Van der Wiel and Altidore are all in the starting lineup today. They are probably not 100% fit yet, but it's a major boost for the team. TFC played in Ottawa in mid-week and won 1:0 but they most used their B team (Osorio did play and scored the goal). Former Toronto player Edwards just joined Chicago Fire from Montreal Impact, we'll see if he can score against his "home town" team. I put a small bet on TFC to win but will definitely keep an eye on them to improve a lot in the coming weeks!
Also placed a bet on New England Revolution to score at New York RB - they seem to create a lot of of chances and NY RB are reportedly trying to switch their system of play and are leaving more counter-attack options for their opponents. NE Revolution are tired from the mid-week trip to Minnesota but three key players were suspended for that game, so they are well rested.

15:45 Haydock, Jabbarockie @ 6 at BetVictor

15:45 Haydock, Jabbarockie @ 6 at BetVictor

Result:
Rosenborg 3 - 1 Valur
0 points
Valur focused on defending and until minute '54 the score was 0-0, from then goals start falling, first for Rosernborg via penalty, and then in minute '71 took the two goals lead that would see them proceed to next stage. But Valur was not done and start pushing, getting important scoring chances, and was ablet so score the needed away goal via penalty, goal that put the team on the next stage as being an away goal.  Rosenborg went pushing and when the match was in their finals minutes a hand in the area of Valur, granted Rosenborg with a penalty that see them avoid elimination and proceed to next stage as Nicklas Bendtner scored.

Rosenborg vs Valur
2018, July, 19:45 hrs (CET Time)
Europa League Qualifying
The powerhouse of Norway at scene. After an hiatus of four years, the club returned to dispute Champions League qualifying rounds in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018, but they did not reached group stage, both times losing in the third Qualifying Round. Of the four matches played at home in those Qualifying rounds, the team was able to win three times, 3-1 to Norrköping, 2-1 to APOEL and 2-1 to Dundalk, and lost 0-1 to Celtic. Despite the defeat against Celtic a favorable results at home.
Valur arrives to this match with everything to win, the team was able to achieve their an unexpected home victory in Champions League qualifying when the first match was ending, and I expected them to relay on counterattacks and solid defending if they want to reach the next stage, it will not be an easy thing to do as Rosenborg will look to take advantage of being at home.
Both teams did not play any match since the first leg match, and all their energies are focused on this encounter. The most probable things is for Rosenborg to win at home, still the odd is to low. Rosenborg needs a goal to tie the scoreline and two goals to proceed to next stage, that is only if they do not allow a singe goal from Valur.
Therefore, after the good result of Valur at home, the asian handicap of +2 goals for them looks very promising, will take it with a lower stake. I sense Valur will be focused on defense and they could achieve the surprise that way, or if they lost 2-0, at least the bet will be void.
Valur + 2 AH with 3 units @ 1.72 at 1xBet

Belgium vs England
Oh my God, hold the excitement levels! It's only the bloody 3rd place play-off game between Belgium and England this Saturday afternoon in a 3pm kick-off at the Krestovsky Stadium in St Petersburg. OK, so this might not be the most appealing game ever but it's another game we can bet on!
These two sides have already met in this competition in the group phase and that match ended in a narrow 1-0 win for Roberto Martinez's side. Both nations fielded their back-up sides and it could be a case of that again. Southgate has already admitted he'll give fringe players a chance to impress again with one eye already on the Nations League and Euro 2020 Qualifiers.
Belgium were looking like potential world beaters after beating Brazil in the Quarter-Final but fell short against France. No doubt Martinez will have Europe's top clubs demanding that their star players are rested for this game but coming home from the World Cup with a bronze medal instead of nothing has got to be a priority.
England perhaps have more reason to change things up. Their performance against Croatia was flat and it was clear that a few of their younger players had become jaded after a long season and tournament. Once again, club teams will certainly be asking Southgate to rest the big names and with Harry Kane almost certain to win the Golden Boot it's unlikely he'll kick up a fuss about being rested.
I'm expecting a free-flowing game. The previous encounter was flat because neither side wanted to take risks and, if we're being cynical, neither side really wanted to win due to the way the knockout round unravelled. I imagine both teams will go for it with fringe players keen to impress.
Previous 3rd place play-offs have been high-scoring affairs. Every 3rd place play-off since 1974 has had over 2.5 goals scored. In those past 10 games there have been six occasions where there have been over 3.5 goals scored. So there is a high chance we could be in for a thrilling game. I still think Belgium have a better back-up side so think they'll win it. If I had to pick a correct score I'd lump for 2-1 to Belgium.
Belgium to win @ 2.20 with Bet365
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.65 with MarathonBet

belgium wins, their course was more impressive than the English. Technically they are superior and their workforce is more complete. they will also be less tired.
Sorry for my bad english, I am French and I am not very good at English.

I thought England already won it. 
Chortle.

Well done to Vangovin on lifting the PL World Cup
He won on countback due to his correct score predictions from Mr Toffee.
Bluemal and Piekny filled the places.
Can the winners contact [email protected] 
sending their PayPal address, PL name and what prize you are claiming.
The top 3 also receive a Punters Lounge Mug & Pen set so will need to send their home address if wishing to claim those.
Please allow 14 days for the money to be sent to PayPal.
Prizes:
£80: Vangovin
£60: Mr Toffee
£40: Bluemal
£20: Piekny
Many thanks for supporting the competition
 

I think Rangers are far too short tonight against Macedonians Shkupi. A bit of perspective on the match, if I apply my pythagorean ratings to Shkupi and fellow Macedonian side Vardar based on last seasons league table there isn't too much between the two sides with Vardar rated 0.576 and Skupi 0.531. In last seasons Europa League (inc qualifying) Vardar played 6 away matches, their starting price from those matches are below. You could argue that every side they faced would be favoured  should they play Rangers, and given my opinion that whilst Vardar are better than Skupi, there isn't a great deal in it - should Rangers really be a shorter price than any of the below 6 teams? I don't think so.

Bet
1pt - Shkupi +3.00 AHC @ 1.95

The new Tipsters Challenge season begins on the weekend of August 10th
As usual we will have four mini-seasons, details to follow.
 
For the meantime this thread is open to any player NOT currently involved in the TC
 
New Divisions here; If your on this post you do not need to register.
 
 
Have a look at the rules before committing yourself to the competition
 
 

Astana - Sutjeska

Astana,the reigning champion of Kazakhstan is facing Sutjeska from Montenegro.
I see Astana as huge and clear favorite here.

Astana is a regular participant in the group stage of the Champions League or Europa League in recent years.
Last season they were eliminated by Sporting Lisbon in the first round of the knockout phase of Europa League.
Now they want to qualify for the Champions League.

Sutjeska is a small club from Montenegro. As you know, Serbia and Montenegro were one country until 2006 and we had a joint football league.
In that league Sutjeska was never a club with good results because it did not have the required quality.
Even the fact that they are champions of the Montenegrian league do not change anything because the Montenegrian league is very weak,even weaker than Serbian. I think that in Serbian league Sutjeska would probably be somewhere in the middle of the table,nothing better than that.

Astana would be a difficult task for the best Serbian clubs Crvena Zvezda and Partizan, let alone the modest Sutjeska team without a great international experience.

Astana -1 @1.65 (local) high stake

 

France vs Belgium
The first of the 2018 World Cup Semi-Finals is being played today in a 7pm BST kick-off between European neighbours France and Belgium at the Krestovsky Stadium in St Petersburg. It's hard to remember a game at a World Cup tournament where the two Semi-Finalists were so evenly matched across the pitch.
France are now the firm favourites left in this tournament. They have always been regarded as one of the front runners along with Brazil, Spain, and Germany but as their rivals have fallen they have stayed in the tournament. Their 2-0 win over Uruguay in the Quarter-Final was played in third gear with the odd push into fourth. However, it might have been a different story if Oscar Tabarez had Edinson Cavani at his disposal and not sidelined with injury.
Belgium came alive in their last 8 match with Brazil. The 2-1 win was one of the better games of the tournament but showed the full potential of Roberto Martinez's side as he unleashed the front trio of Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard, and Kevin De Bruyne upon the Brazilian defence to devastating effect. How it's taken Martinez this long to free the shackles on De Bruyne is anyone's guess. Will he do it again here? It could be the difference between victory and defeat.
I've spoken to a lot of people about this game. Everyone has their own take on the stats, performances, and omens. Every view is different. Interestingly, Olivier Giroud still hasn't got a shot on target in this tournament. It can be argued he's been left to do the dirty hold up play work so the likes of Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappe can do the clinical finishing stuff.
One key factor for Belgium here is the absence of Thomas Meunier. The right wing back has added a degree of balance to the Belgian side and it will be interesting to see how Martinez re-shuffles his defence. The Spaniard is not exactly renowned for his ability to manage a tight back-line.
I'm switching my mind every other minute over what I think the outcome here will be. I had hoped this would be the Final but, alas, Belgium had to go and top their group to ruin my prediction! I still think the winner of this game will go on to win the tournament (sorry, England fans!). My gut reaction is to back a draw with the game going to extra-time or pens but I think France could sneak it. I get the feeling the Brazil game was Belgium's big performance and they won't repeat that performance here. We're still yet to see the absolute best from this French side but I think we could here. I'm very excited to see how this game pans out.
France to Qualify @ 1.83 with BetStars
BTTS @ 1.80 with Betfair

Results:
Philadelphia Union 0 - 2 Atlanta United
+ 8.19 units
Montreal Impact 2 - 1 Colorado Rapids
+ 2.72 units
  Montreal Impact 2 - 1 Colorado Rapids = 3 Goals
0 units
Piatti Anytime Goal Scorer = NO
- 1 units
Still he provided and assits.
New England Revolution 0 - 0 Seattle Sounders
- 4 units
New England Revolution 0 - 0 Seattle Sounders = 0 goals
 - 5 units
Los Angeles Galaxy 4-1 Colombus Crew
+ 7.84 units
Day Result: + 8.75 units

Updated projections...

Los Angeles Galaxy vs Columbus Crew
2018, July 08, 04:30 hrs (CET Time)
MLS
Los Angeles Galaxy
Zlatan Ibrahimovic did not take long to open the score for the Los Angeles Galaxy, netting a great center.  Chris Pontis was able to increase the lead before the '25 minute of the match.  It did not take long for DC United to show his offensive skills as just a minute after they shorten the distance, Los Angeles Galaxy was unable to score again and their defense was not match for a Mattocks great individual play that end up being a goal, and Los Angeles Galaxy was only able to draw againt DC United.
The team receives and offensive improvement for this match as Dos Santos brothers are back with the team after they took part on Russia World Cup 2018 with Mexico National Team, their present solidify the mid field, and the offensive aspect is consider, they also help on the defensive and that will help avoid the problems present against DC United or San Jose Earthquakes, that both came from two goals behind to claim draws.
FW Ola Kamara played for the Crew last season, and his inside knowledge will only work in his favor for this encounter, and he might find the way to score and increase his league tally.
Columbus Crew
With an streak two matches winning, the team has turn around, after six matches without victory, taking four draws in that span. Previous two defeats where 0-2 to Atlanta United, and 2-0 against Los Angeles FC. In this new visit to Los Angeles, the team expect a different outcome, but the previous matches here does not provide good sensations for that.
Gyasi Zardes has been key for the team 4th position on the Eastern Conference, and together with Federico Higuain are the key offensive weapons of the team.
Despite not playing last weekend, the team played a friendly against Deportivo Saprissa, a two 30-minutes halves. Columbus Crew won that match 2-0, mantaining playing form.
The most remarkable thing for the team, is their defensive work at away, where they have only allow 4 goals in 8 matches, just losing three times, drawin three, and being able to win two times, once by a lone goal, and against Toronto 0-2. Therefore the team is keen on defending.
Prediction
Last four matches between them  at Stubhub Center, all have been victories for LA Galaxy, which is positive for the home side. A difficult and disputed match head, Columbus Crew will be keen on counterattacking, and that had help them this season, but against strong offensive teams like Los Angeles FC showed, they just allow goals. This will be the third away match where they encounter powerful offensives, against Sporting Kansas City  got an scoreless draw, and lose with Los Angeles FC. For this match I see the offensive lead by Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be very powerful and the defense should have learn from both previous encounters and should mantain focus the whole match.
Los Angeles Galaxy  -0. 25 AH with 8 units @ 1.98 at Asianodds

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United
2018, July 8, 01:00 hrs (CET Time)
MLS
Philadelphia Union
The team has improved at home, but last match the team was unable to reflect that at away and remains with a lone victory in eight away matches. Last match the team was just able to shorten distance before the half time, but on the second half the team give up two more goals to Los Angeles FC and lose the match by a 4-1.
Now the team returns home, where in the last four matches, shown some improvement, winning three of those, one in MLS against Vancouver Whitecaps by 4-0, and both their encounters in Open Cup, against non-MLS side Richmond Kickers and 2-1 to New York Red Bulls. The negative, was the defeat against Toronto FC, which is in a low moment.
Considering only MLS matches, Philadelphia has four victories in the last five matches at home, in three of those the team was able to score at least 3 goals, holding the opposition to at the most two goals.
The team recovers Medunjanin for this match, after serving his three matches ban, following an incident in their previous match against Atlanta United. Match where also Bedoya was expelled, and the two penalty quicks for Atlanta United was the key reason for the 3-0 scoreline against.
Atlanta United
Atlanta was behind at the '20 minute, when a free kick of FC Dallas, was excellent deliver by Retro Ziegler to put Atlanta United behind on the score. But Josef Martinez individual skills are a great tool that generates scoring chances, from him came the first Atlanta United goal. And his combination with Almiron are key for the team, and how the second goal for the team in this match. Their defense needs to keep the concentration in the finals minutes of the team, as they allowed two goals in the final 5 minutes of the match, which translates into a defeat.
The offensive punch of the team is guaranteed, but the back line needs to improve or the big things, as the title will be very hard to reach.
The team was very close to deliver the first defeat home to FC Dallas but lost in a hard-felt defeat that will be a call of attention for the defense to improve as the offensive has return from a two matches slump and has scored in last two at least 2 goals. I expect the defense to improve, Coach Tata Martino knows an undeserved victory can hurt the team and he will work in that physiological aspect.
Prediction
This will be the 3rd match of this encounter, with only once being played at Talen Energy Stadium in Pennsylvania, with a high scoring draw 2-2. In all their matches there has been at least three goals, with Atlanta United winning the other two at home. For this match Atlanta United will look to dominate the actions, as they normally do.
Atlanta United should dictate the playing, with the likes of Almiron and Josef Martinez being key on this. It all will be up to Atlanta United defense, if they can hold a Philadelphia Union that has improved at home, and that has recently performed well there. It might not be an easy match for Atlanta and they should remain focused during the whole match if they are to get anything. I sense the value resided on the away team with a level handicap.
Atlanta United 0 Asian Handicap with 7 units @ 2.17 at Dafabet