3rd Place Play-Off Predictions > Jul 14th

[StevieDay1983]

The 3rd Place Play-Off has been decided and it will be Belgium versus England in a 3pm BST kick-off from the Krestovsky Stadium in St Petersburg. Their group stage meeting was a match between the two sets of fringe players. Hopefully, we see both teams play their full strength sides and go for it. Let us know your predictions for this final game at this competition for both of these nations.

[chris50]

belgium wins, their course was more impressive than the English. Technically they are superior and their workforce is more complete. they will also be less tired.

Sorry for my bad english, I am French and I am not very good at English.

[harry_rag]

Obviously an odd match and one that neither team particularly wants to play. I've just had a look back over the last 10 World Cup 3rd place play off games.

All 10 saw >2.5 goals, 6 went >3.5 and 3 went >4.5 (all 3 finishing with a 3-2 scoreline). Average total goals were 3.9 and the average goal rush make up on the spreads was 49.2.

Only one game was drawn, France beating Belgium 4-2 after extra time in 1986 after a 2-2 scoreline in 90 minutes.

BTTS landed in 8 of the 10 games, the exceptions being Holland beating a dispirited Brazil 3-0 in 2014 and Sweden beating Bulgaria 4-0 in 1994.

Of the 7 teams who had an extra day's rest following their semi final defeat, 3 won and 4 lost. Of the 3 that won, 2 also had the advantage of being hosts (Germany 2006 and Italy 1990). 2 hosts also lost with the benefit of an extra day's rest (Brazil 2014 and South Korea 2002). Obviously home advantage is irrelevant this year but, all in all, there's certainly no suggestion of an extra day's rest being of much benefit.

There were 4 games where just one of the teams had gone to extra time/penalties in their semi final with 2 losing and (the most recent) 2 winning.

Cards wise, the average bookings make up for the last 10 games was 32, rising to 46 for the last 5. Most recent first, the bookings totals have been 50, 40, 50, 30, 60, 20, 0, 10, 30 and 30.

Make of that what you will, I haven't looked at the available prices yet.

[StevieDay1983]

17 hours ago, chris50 said:

belgium wins, their course was more impressive than the English. Technically they are superior and their workforce is more complete. they will also be less tired.

Sorry for my bad english, I am French and I am not very good at English.

Welcome to Punters Lounge, Chris! Interesting thoughts on tiredness. Didn't impact on Croatia in their game with England but does that say more about England's lack of fitness?

[harry_rag]

And a bit of half time/full time related analysis:

22 goals were scored in the first half (56.41%) and 17 in the 2nd (43.59%) which is more or less the opposite of the usual averages. (Obviously skewed by Sweden scoring all 4 goals in the first half v Bulgaria in 94. Croatia beating Holland 2-1 in 98 was the only other game where all the goals came in the first half.)

The 1st half has been the highest scoring on 6 occasions, the 2nd half on the other 4 (no ties).

6 games saw a goal (or more) in both halves, there were 2 half time 0-0s and the 2 games mentioned above where all the goals came before the break.

First half goal totals have been 0 x 2, 1 x 1, 2 x 2, 3 x 3 and 4 x 2.

The halftime/full time results (from the perspective of the winning team) have been as follows:

Win/Win x 5
Draw/Win x 3
Lose/Win x 1
Lose/Draw x 1

Including France after extra time, 4 teams have won having gone behind but only Germany in 2010 have done so in the last 7 3rd place games.

My main conclusion from that is that it may be worth looking at first half goal lines.

[harry_rag]

4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Of the 7 teams who had an extra day's rest following their semi final defeat, 3 won and 4 lost. Of the 3 that won, 2 also had the advantage of being hosts (Germany 2006 and Italy 1990).

I believe I made an error in respect of the 1994 game, Sweden winning when Bulgaria had the "benefit" of the extra day's rest, so it should actually be 2 won and 5 lost, the 2 that won both being hosts. Combine that with a 2-5 deficit in the World Cup as well and it begins to look like the extra day's rest is a disadvantage if anything!

[StevieDay1983]

Belgium vs England

Oh my God, hold the excitement levels! It's only the bloody 3rd place play-off game between Belgium and England this Saturday afternoon in a 3pm kick-off at the Krestovsky Stadium in St Petersburg. OK, so this might not be the most appealing game ever but it's another game we can bet on!

These two sides have already met in this competition in the group phase and that match ended in a narrow 1-0 win for Roberto Martinez's side. Both nations fielded their back-up sides and it could be a case of that again. Southgate has already admitted he'll give fringe players a chance to impress again with one eye already on the Nations League and Euro 2020 Qualifiers.

Belgium were looking like potential world beaters after beating Brazil in the Quarter-Final but fell short against France. No doubt Martinez will have Europe's top clubs demanding that their star players are rested for this game but coming home from the World Cup with a bronze medal instead of nothing has got to be a priority.

England perhaps have more reason to change things up. Their performance against Croatia was flat and it was clear that a few of their younger players had become jaded after a long season and tournament. Once again, club teams will certainly be asking Southgate to rest the big names and with Harry Kane almost certain to win the Golden Boot it's unlikely he'll kick up a fuss about being rested.

I'm expecting a free-flowing game. The previous encounter was flat because neither side wanted to take risks and, if we're being cynical, neither side really wanted to win due to the way the knockout round unravelled. I imagine both teams will go for it with fringe players keen to impress.

Previous 3rd place play-offs have been high-scoring affairs. Every 3rd place play-off since 1974 has had over 2.5 goals scored. In those past 10 games there have been six occasions where there have been over 3.5 goals scored. So there is a high chance we could be in for a thrilling game. I still think Belgium have a better back-up side so think they'll win it. If I had to pick a correct score I'd lump for 2-1 to Belgium.

Belgium to win @ 2.20 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.65 with MarathonBet

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

England are undefeated in 94% of their last 17 matches in FIFA World Cup.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in England's last 4 games in FIFA World Cup.
Belgium have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches against England in all competitions.

You can find interesting 75 Football Betting Streaks for 14.07.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-14-07-2018-10441

[betcatalog]

It is difficult for the two teams to have a strong motivation today, I will give Belgian a lead in the third place that has shown more stability, I expect to be an open goal match on both sides
BELGIUM vs ENGLAND @@ Both team to score, odds 1.47