immortal--

Romagnoli and Locatelli are suspended. De Sciglio is still injured. So big problems for Milan defense, maybe if Antonelli is fit to play on the left flank will be better. Good news are Ghoulam and Koulibaly from Napoli will miss the game too due to ACO. So a lot of missing in defense, maybe over will be good.

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Serie A games:
85% of Milan's home victories have been by 1 goal.
You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-12/

Diego Costa rulled out of Chelsea squad against Leicester after argue with Conte.
Good question is if everything about this fight is true or not, and it's just a normal injury.
 
Otherwise I really like Tottenham 1st H bet (odds around 1,83) and Burnley dnb as well.

Something a little different this week to the usual debate questions. Just keen to hear what football club you all support. Some of you such as @Kenton Schweppes, @skyblues88, @andrewcalo, and @allyhibs have already made it know who they support so maybe you lads can tell us how you came to support your respective teams?
The rest of you, keen to hear from the likes of @Neubs, @tilly, @gogetta, @clubgowi and many others about who you all support.

I hope 2017 to start in a way 2016 ended for my favorite club AC Milan. Its almost a decade since Milan doesnt play any serious role in European neither in Italian football. 2016 ended much better then expected under Montella having in mind what team he have.
In 2017 I expect to finally see the Chinese money  They are also aware that Milan has very good chance to get in top three this season, and should make use of it. I hope they develop the club in a way that its self-sustainable through increase of profit coming from the Asian markets, not just having an owner which splash the cash when needed.

 
Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:
There have been over 2 goals in 89% of Manchester City's away matches.
 
Hull have conceded at least 2 goals in 71% of their last 7 matches at home.
 
100% of the last 7 meetings between Swansea and Bournemouth had at least 3 goals scored.
 

Hahaha. Yeah, I think it's a rivalry that means different things to different people. For me, I see Swansea as a bit of fun in the league. Someone that adds a bit of spice. If you beat us or are doing better than us then meh. Fair play. However, a few teams I've had bad experiences with. The worst was probably Chelsea in the FA Cup when their fans cornered our family buses and threw flares at a crowd that included my mum and young siblings of friends. Teams like Bristol City and Leeds we also have fierce rivalries with.
However, that said, I know some Swansea fans who would rather die than see Cardiff do well. The same for Cardiff fans. It's a bit narrow-minded. I mean, we were all singing the same songs in France last summer. I can't relate to that sudden shift to a negative stance. As you say, Wales first. Clubs second.
Interesting stats though, Andrew. I think the increase in draws shows how the league is getting tighter and more competitive. Harder to call for the punters but also more difficult for the bookies. Double edged sword.
Onto the matches, Liverpool showed their clinical side again last night. It didn't do much to change my opinion that a score draw against Man City is the most likely outcome. That said, I thought Man City were very average despite their win against Hull. 

Ok, so it's time for a little update for this challenge. I'm posting from a PC now so can also break down the bets so it's clearer...
I watched the Crystal Palace meltdown against Swansea on Soccer Saturday. Superb!
Results for QPR have been good and bad. Still early days.
November Part 1
Preston Top 6 finish @ 11.0 -> 15.0 Scunthorpe L1 winners @ 4.0 -> 3.0 Napoli Top 3 finish @ 1.66 -> 1.73 Part 2
QPR relegation @ 10.0 -> 7.0 Scunthorpe L1 winners @ 4.0 -> 3.0 Napoli Top 3 finish @ 1.66 -> 1.73 Part 3
Pardew next sacked @ 9.0 -> 1.8 Scunthorpe L1 winners @ 4.0 -> 3.0 Napoli Top 3 finish @ 1.66 -> 1.73 Totals:
Part 1: 73.0 -> 77.9 (€4k) Part 2: 66.4 -> 36.3 (€4k) Part 3: 59.8 -> 9.3 (€2k)

Hello all!
I am back again with my challenge to win big from season long accumulators. I have gone close a good few times down through the years with a target of €25k but I've lowered that to €10k with the hope of getting over the line. I identify season long value priced bets, put them into (usually) a treble and stick €150 on it with the hope of winning about €10,000.
With the November deposit of €150 I had to go with Betfair Sportsbook as that's where I found some value.
It seems they have low maximums or my account is limited and I had to split my bet into three. So here are the selections:
Nov Treble
1. Preston Top 6 finish (4K) / QPR Relegation (4K) / Pardew next sacked (2K)
2. Scunthorpe L1 winners
3. Napoli Top 3 Finish
Posting from my phone now so I will add the odds when I next post an update.

West Ham +1 Asian handicap cards, 0.5pt at 1.9 with 365.

It was strange for me to see City adapting on Pep that fast. Bayern needed much more time, but now we can see that also City will need much much more time. And the difference between Bayern and this City is also in squad. City is too weak without Fernandinho who is the one who is fighting and winning 2nd balls. For me man of the match was Mahrez. His touch at first goal was amazing, for third goal was even more amazing. There is really a few players capable of that. At first goal Kolarov could be positioned better, but ok, lets say that through ball of Slimani and timing of Vardy was perfect, but then we comes to second goal - Kolarov did it again. He was together with Slimani at throw in, but then just let him 4-5 meters away from him, Slimani stoped the ball and pass it to King. 2-0 in 4 minutes. Is problem in tactic? I think that the biggest problem is also in individual abilities. Third goal.. City building up in attack, referee "pass" it to Leicester's defence, then long pass on Mahrez, then this absolutely amazing first touch/assist for Vardy and 3-0. If you're looking closely to this goal - ok, nothing might happened if referee wouldn't touched the ball, but again - Kolarov and Vardy were together in midfield circle while this long ball was in air and what happened? Vardy came to box 2 seconds faster then Kola, so he had time to pass Bravo and to score easily. At fourth goal individual mistake of Stones, who is obviously having problems with mentality. When they're playing good, he is great, but as there are problems, he is making mistakes like this was and for good of England, I hope that he will be able to step up, because it would be a shame loosing player like him. Again specially for England national team, I think that he is one of first "modern" defenders in UK.
As I said before, I think that City is just far from first favourites here. They're squad with only one striker, who looks bipolar this season, is really not something. I can remember that in start there was talk, that Guardiola wants both full backs and they didn't get not even one of them, so he stayed at Kolarov, Clichy, Sagna and Zabaleta. Now he is all the time saying that he is not someone who will complain about his players, and trying to take the blame for bad results all the time, which is correct, but anyway I have feeling, that he is doing this just because he wants to get as much as possible from this squad. It's obvious that those 4 full backs wouldn't be in first 11 in top 20 clubs in the world and City is trying to be in this top 20. They will need a lot of work to do something.
p.s. It's really funny to listen Robbie Savage laughing from Pep after this match and trying to be the smartest ass in studio but in my opinion Premier league needs changes, they needs to stop jerking off on 4-4-2 and scoring with long crosses, winning 2nd balls, etc. It's obvious that English football was somehow disaster in last few years. They didn't achieve nothing anywhere. Also Leicester winning PL says a lot, and now some people came to this league, and people like Savage are all trying to be the smartest asses explaining how they should play, what was wrong, how build up is totally mixed up, how every coach would be kicked in ass after performance like this, etc. Come on Robbie. Seriously? He looked like if he was putting money on Manchester City and being furious because he lost the bet.
After Ranieri s post match comment he (Savage) finished with: "and the play was easy, simple, the players know exactly what are they doing, compare that to the City defenders." And then: "ten players, those players know what they're doing. Back 4, midfield 4, Slimani will drop in, Vardy is the isolated guy,... every player that comes into that team knows exactly what they're doing. The same can't be said for Man City." 
That match finished perfectly for them. Exactly perfectly. City was missing every possible chances, while they scored 3 goals with 3-4 touches, and 4th goal because of individual error. I would be proud of great vision of Mahrez and great finishing by Vardy and overall fighting of the time, but all in all, having 22% of possession, with just 58% pass. succ. letting opponent to be on your half all the time,... They had one more chance after solo of Mahrez, but that was all. It's easy to say now that Leicester smashed one "big" team, but talking about great tactics of that? That's just funny and pretty retarded. It's time to move on England. It's time!
p.s. I didn't watch enough matches of Leicester this season, but I need to say that with football like this, Bournemouth has good chances. But obviously, bookmakers are the same opinion.

A win or a 0-0 draw will put Southampton through. I will go SOUTHAMPTON (4/9 various) to beat Hapoel Beer Sheva at home to ensure qualification.
VILLARAEL (1/3 - W.Hill) to beat Steau Bucharest at home to qualify.
PAOK (2/5 - various) to beat Liberec at home to qualify (as long as Fiorentina win or draw). If Fiorentina lose it will be a 3 way tie and god knows what happens there!! 

I agree somehow. Monaco is crazily good this season, I really like them. Not just the way how they play, but also the coach. BUT.. there is one thing about them, which is bothering me. I am focusing on possession, created chances, the ways where they could go throw defense of opponent, if they will be in advantage anywhere on the pitch, but thing is.. that thing which impress me the most is conversion rate.
vs Bastia, 12 shots - 5 goals on last match (41%); vs Dijon 9 shots, 1 goal (11%), vs OM 16 shots, 4 goals (25%), vsTottenham 16 shots, 2 goals (11%), vs Lorient 11 shots, 3 goals (27%), vs Nancy 16 shots, 6 goals (37%). And % are on shots, not shots on target! In average this season, they have 12,5 shots on goal and scoring 2,9 goals per match! Is that normal? I think that it's not.
Except low % against Dijon, where they were somehow in bad shape, they're conversion rate is crazy and impressive! They're scoring also from free kicks like nothing. For example against Lorient - Lemar and Boschilla. God knows what would happen in this match, if they wouldn't score (specially Lemar for 0:2). But things are just going in the way as they want. I am not saying, that they will stop, but just trying to say, that they are abnormal!  
I am keep saying that low odds on Monaco doesn't interests me, but for now they're showing that I'm wrong. My last bet on them was 4 rounds ago when I grabbed @1,99 on them against Lorient (http://pep004-football-analysis.blogspot.fr/2016/11/lorient-monaco.html). Heavy rain, heavy conditions, heavy match. Nothing spectacular in first half, but then in second half Falcao scored in 63th minute, and Lemar "killed" Lorient with fabolous free kick and after that everything was as I analysed, but as I said before.. who knows what would happen if Lemar wouldn't score.. Btw link to see the goal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk2qP5BLV18 

Proud of my 3/3 French weekend, and happy that finally someone trashed Bastia. As I said, they were poor on all those matches (Lyon, Nice), but they were lucky as .. 
For now, my eyes are on Dijon-Marseille, Nantes-Caen and Toulouse-Lorient. 

@StevieDay1983 don't know if it's smart that I am making a storms in this part of forum. Looks that my posts are too provocative sometimes, even if I don't want that and I'm just expressing my opinion.  
I think that odds on Leicester +0,5 are to high, because City is without player who could substitute Aguero Fernandinho. Chelsea's odds are getting ridiculous as on Atletico this week for example. United will have big problems with high pressure of Tottenham (but don't know how it is with injuries and suspensions there). It will be interesting to see response of Liverpool after collapse in last minutes today. 

Barcelona is in big troubles. It's true that Ini and Umtiti could be back (Ini for sure), and I am just afraid that they will win and all the problems will be just postponed. Fact is that club leaders are doing things wrongly. Barcelona was used to work on own players but they right now they are becoming more and more similar to Real Madrid - just buying players... When I see Asensio, Vazquez and Nacho in first eleven of Real, I feel bad (I am Barca fan). There were times, when we had all the team from La Masia, but now.. Pique, Messi, Busi and that's it. Enrique is tactically maybe the worst coach in last 15 years and that, what is he doing right now is absolutely crazy. Back 4 + Busquets are playing so called possession game, when all the other part of the pitch just waits for a ball higher on the pitch. In that way every single team, yes also Sociedad can make pressure on us and cause problems. It was pure luck to win first match against City. Result was crazy high, but it could ended totally different if City would get penalty at the end of first half. On second match Barca played good, bud just for 39 minutes. Otherwise.. all they do now is ball on Messi, who is playing diagonall through ball on Neymar on the left flank, and then Luis and Leo are coming into the box, Ney is passing (mostly) to the Messi, who is scoring and that's. 
If anyone read my analysis on Sociedad-Barcelona, I said "They (Sociedad) are trying a lot over left flank, where left full back Yuri and left winger Oyarzabal are really doing well and they created many goals this season (Oyarzabal has 4 assists). And because they are used to play offensively there, I see problems for them, because this is side of Lionel Messi. I predict that Enrique will try to "penetrate" over this flank, because there will be lots of space, also from counter-attacks." And what happened? In average, that's positions of players one and another team:

Rakitić is shown there mostly because he was there in offensive roles, but in defence Sergi Roberto was almost alone on whole right side and looks that analyse of Sociedad from Barca's side was really really awful. Ex coach of Barca B (Eusebio) totally outplayed Enrique! As long as Messi is here, everything will be somehow fine, but after that.. I am just really really concerned what will happen... 
But on the other hand, Real Madrid is also far from decent form. They are winning, but also against Gijon they were just lucky. Čop missed penalty in 80th minutes, and everything could be different but anyway it looks that Zidane has his word against Perez, and they are somehow coming in solid shape. They have many players injured, but they are winning. Vazquez is proving that he is great player, same goes for Nacho and Asensio. Zizou knows how valuable are home players - his era had some of them and he is trying to put them together.

We saved a seat for you too.  

Monaco 6-0 FT - All aboard the Monaco money train!  

Some good matches, but i'm out of money for betting

Hahaha. Didn't realise your run had been that bad lately?! If you had the money, who would be taking your fancy?

Tough week of fixtures here for the betting. Got a few of you regular posters getting involved lately. @FCNA, @WinningAdvice, @vasilli07, @immortal--, @sajtion, and @saimon76, what do you guys think?

Balotelli is doing something great in Nice. Looks like PSG are having some competition.

For brave punter my prediction for match Juventus - Caglari is:
Caglari have a better record at Juventus than a lot of other teams in Serie A, having claimed three 1-1 draws in their last five visits to Turin. While it is a very bold move to oppose Juventus. At massive odds, Cagliari Double Chance at is certainly a risky selection but it is my pick for this game. 

Not so bad... (Erding missed a penalty )
Quote for next run on tuesday :
A large succes for PSG
A surprise with TFC travelling to Lille
Metz make a result at home against Bordeaux (red card for Nolan(Fw), Sertic(Df) injured during the training just before the match, Menez replaced earlier in the match, Toulalan injured)