Midweek > Dec 13th & 14th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Getting these ones up now so we have actually have some time to discuss them before they are played.

@andrewcalo, is this the start of a Swansea turnaround? Do you fancy you lads to get something at the Hawthorns? @neilovan and @vasilli07, you two and I were way off! Haha.

@immortal--, you called that Leicester one early! Fair play. What do you think this round?

@Mindfulness, how are you feeling after that Palace game? Got to be gutted you couldn't take all three points but any point away in the Premier League is a bonus.

@Sir Puntalot, great shout on Watford. Was anyone brave enough to back the win? Everton not being as awesome as many thought they would be.

 

[WinningAdvice]

Arsenal to win against Everton. Chelsea may get the No.1 spot again but I'm betting my money on a crucial City win against Everton which can turn odds in their favour.

[vasilli07]

A question about the ELO ratings. The difference for Bournemouth-Leicester is 30.25. Since 20 points is 1 clear goal superior, wouldn't that make Bournemouth a good play considering their odds is 2.53. If we use the ELO ratings to calculate the odds, Bournemouth odds should just be 1.4 to 1.6.

[andrewcalo]

ELO are only a guide. Look at last week they were all over the shop compared to the results.

I think that what we are seeing with Leicester right now is a team determined to take themselves out of the relegation zone ASAP so it doesn't affect their Chmpions league plans.

I reckon they're a tidy shout on Tuesday as are Arsenal.

Also - Vardy any time scorer. 

[Pep004]

It was strange for me to see City adapting on Pep that fast. Bayern needed much more time, but now we can see that also City will need much much more time. And the difference between Bayern and this City is also in squad. City is too weak without Fernandinho who is the one who is fighting and winning 2nd balls. For me man of the match was Mahrez. His touch at first goal was amazing, for third goal was even more amazing. There is really a few players capable of that. At first goal Kolarov could be positioned better, but ok, lets say that through ball of Slimani and timing of Vardy was perfect, but then we comes to second goal - Kolarov did it again. He was together with Slimani at throw in, but then just let him 4-5 meters away from him, Slimani stoped the ball and pass it to King. 2-0 in 4 minutes. Is problem in tactic? I think that the biggest problem is also in individual abilities. Third goal.. City building up in attack, referee "pass" it to Leicester's defence, then long pass on Mahrez, then this absolutely amazing first touch/assist for Vardy and 3-0. If you're looking closely to this goal - ok, nothing might happened if referee wouldn't touched the ball, but again - Kolarov and Vardy were together in midfield circle while this long ball was in air and what happened? Vardy came to box 2 seconds faster then Kola, so he had time to pass Bravo and to score easily. At fourth goal individual mistake of Stones, who is obviously having problems with mentality. When they're playing good, he is great, but as there are problems, he is making mistakes like this was and for good of England, I hope that he will be able to step up, because it would be a shame loosing player like him. Again specially for England national team, I think that he is one of first "modern" defenders in UK.

As I said before, I think that City is just far from first favourites here. They're squad with only one striker, who looks bipolar this season, is really not something. I can remember that in start there was talk, that Guardiola wants both full backs and they didn't get not even one of them, so he stayed at Kolarov, Clichy, Sagna and Zabaleta. Now he is all the time saying that he is not someone who will complain about his players, and trying to take the blame for bad results all the time, which is correct, but anyway I have feeling, that he is doing this just because he wants to get as much as possible from this squad. It's obvious that those 4 full backs wouldn't be in first 11 in top 20 clubs in the world and City is trying to be in this top 20. They will need a lot of work to do something.

p.s. It's really funny to listen Robbie Savage laughing from Pep after this match and trying to be the smartest ass in studio but in my opinion Premier league needs changes, they needs to stop jerking off on 4-4-2 and scoring with long crosses, winning 2nd balls, etc. It's obvious that English football was somehow disaster in last few years. They didn't achieve nothing anywhere. Also Leicester winning PL says a lot, and now some people came to this league, and people like Savage are all trying to be the smartest asses explaining how they should play, what was wrong, how build up is totally mixed up, how every coach would be kicked in ass after performance like this, etc. Come on Robbie. Seriously? He looked like if he was putting money on Manchester City and being furious because he lost the bet.

After Ranieri s post match comment he (Savage) finished with: "and the play was easy, simple, the players know exactly what are they doing, compare that to the City defenders." And then: "ten players, those players know what they're doing. Back 4, midfield 4, Slimani will drop in, Vardy is the isolated guy,... every player that comes into that team knows exactly what they're doing. The same can't be said for Man City." 

That match finished perfectly for them. Exactly perfectly. City was missing every possible chances, while they scored 3 goals with 3-4 touches, and 4th goal because of individual error. I would be proud of great vision of Mahrez and great finishing by Vardy and overall fighting of the time, but all in all, having 22% of possession, with just 58% pass. succ. letting opponent to be on your half all the time,... They had one more chance after solo of Mahrez, but that was all. It's easy to say now that Leicester smashed one "big" team, but talking about great tactics of that? That's just funny and pretty retarded. It's time to move on England. It's time!

p.s. I didn't watch enough matches of Leicester this season, but I need to say that with football like this, Bournemouth has good chances. But obviously, bookmakers are the same opinion.

Edited December 12, 2016 by Pep004

[StevieDay1983]

3 hours ago, vasilli07 said:

A question about the ELO ratings. The difference for Bournemouth-Leicester is 30.25. Since 20 points is 1 clear goal superior, wouldn't that make Bournemouth a good play considering their odds is 2.53. If we use the ELO ratings to calculate the odds, Bournemouth odds should just be 1.4 to 1.6.

@Sir Puntalot is the man for these sort of questions!

[andrewcalo]

My old man would love you Pep lol. He has hated Leicester City ever since they served him a balti pie instead of a meat pie outside one of their home games

[Pep004]

Haha I don't hate them, it was just disaster to listen those stupid comments of Robbie. 

[betcatalog]

The two groups are not secure the grades and degrees needed, we will give everything to win, defense both teams have several problems, for this reason make big score very often, now I expect an open match with many goals

AFC BOURNEMOUTH vs LEICESTER CITY @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.88

Good luck to all

[malabgd]

Bournemouth v Leicester City

Bournemouth: Andrew Surman (9/0 m), Lewis Cook (1/0 m), Junior Stanislas (9/3 m)

Leicester City: Kasper Schmeichel (8/0 first goalkeeper, doubtful), Danny Simpson (14/0 d, suspended)

 

Everton FC v Arsenal

Everton FC: Matthew Pennington (0/0 d, probably out), Yannick Bolasie (13/1 m), Arouna Kone (3/0 f), Muhamed Bešić (0/0 d)

Arsenal: Shkodran Mustafi (12/0 d), Aaron Ramsey (6/0 m), Mathieu Debuchy (1/0 d), Santi Cazorla (8/2 m), Chuba Akpom (0/0 f), Danny Welbeck (0/0 f), Per Mertesacker (0/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[andrewcalo]

Three weeks without a nil nil is extremely rare in the Premiership.

So there's bound to be one this week.

Where do you think?

I reckon Bournemouth v Leicester has the potential to be a bore fest. 

Also I think West Ham v Burnley, and West Brom v Swansea.

[johnabpd]

Bournemouth vs Leicester

Leicester go into tonight’s match on the south coast buoyed by their stunning 4-2 victory against Man City on Saturday night. That match was the first Premier League game the Foxes were able to play without the distraction of the Champions League hanging over them, with their next European outing not until February.

Indeed, the duel demands of competing at home and abroad has taken its toll on Leicester’s domestic season and they must look to improve their league form over the next 3 months. They made a positive start to that endeavour with their excellent win on Saturday – Jamie Vardy’s pace and marksmanship making a mockery of the Man City defence.

Read more here.

[mrclubbie]

Middlesbrough vs Liverpool

Stats:

Middlesbrough lost by more than 1 goal just once in their last 15 PL matches

Middlesbrough have not lost by more than 1 goal in their last 7 home PL matches

Liverpool only won by more than 1 goal just once in their last 8 away PL matches

[Pep004]

Hey Savage. Where is this great positioning of Leicester? You remember? 4 back there, 4 in the midfield, 1+1, everyone know where to stand on the pitch?

Anyone knows what are the chances for MHrez leaving in winter?

[andrewcalo]

He signed a new contract didn't he?

The way he's been playing lately don't think anyone would want him anyway.

Maybe after they win Champions League.

Edited December 13, 2016 by andrewcalo

[betcatalog]

My today tips for Premier League is

It is problematic in the rear Londoners if Mourinho's team is serious will pass from the "Selcharst Park"

CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER UNITED @@ MANCHESTER UNITED, odds 1.80

The team is doing extremely Poketino the "White Hart Lane" (5-2-0) and we think that will make the task of facing the worst defense of the Premier League
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR vs HULL CITY @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.57 

Good luck to all

[johnabpd]

Stoke City vs Southampton

Taking the last 8 games into account, Stoke City sit 2nd in the Premier League form table, with only league leaders Chelsea bettering them. Indeed, since a disappointing opening period when they lost 4 matches on the bounce, Stoke have enjoyed an excellent run; they have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 in their last 10 matches.

Stoke manager Mark Hughes has built his side in to a very solid Premier League outfit over the last 2 and a half seasons. After 9th place finishes in the last 2 campaigns, the next stated aim for Hughes is to qualify for Europe. To achieve that objective, they must claim 3 points at home against teams like Southampton, who will rival them for the European places. 

Read more here.

[andrewcalo]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2016/dec/14/pep-guardiola-ronald-koeman-manchester-city-everton-full-english

Good article here.

Pep004 ! 

[Pep004]

Thanks for that. I understand this totally. I never watched that many matches in PL like this season, because I was wondering if those new coaches will bring something to this league, and they did. Not just Guardiola and Koeman, but also Pochettino. It's first time that Guardiola is in this "mess" of football, but I think that he will find solution. He was like that as a player, always looking for solution, and he will do it in this situation too. 

Anyway.. I agree with article. I know that games are more unpredicted and that it's harder to analyse something here, and that's the reason why I'm trying to keep fingers out of this league. City will need different profile of defenders. For example Varane, with his pace would be great. It's fine to have one player like Stones, to build up, but having 5 or 6 relatively slow defenders? It can not work. We saw that in Leicester's case. You're trying to have team together, with small difference between attack line and defensive line, but if you are trying with high pressure, then your defensive line is on the opponent side, with goalkeeper on 35m.

And one conclusion is also that this kind of football didn't bring any of success to English clubs, not even national team. And in my opinion, they should try to change something. For example Stoke at home is well known as tough club. My friends, English football supporters are saying.. Barca would have big problems in Stoke, they are not like Betis, where you can win with 3 goals difference like nothing. City played there on 20th of August, and they won 1-4 with 58% of possession, which means that they adapted a little bit. It's not all the time the same. People who are saying, that Guardiola is not adapting are wrong. He is one of sick guys in football, analysing opponents till last mili millimetre. But well.. let's give him and all other managers some more time. We'll see where will English football go in future. 

I have feeling that Italians are somehow ideal coaches in this "winning 2nd ball" way of football, because they are adapting to it and adding they're quick transitions, transormations and Italian defensive style.

[andrewcalo]

Yes to all the above. But remember - Italy did not beat Germany this year at the Euros. For all that defending and control it did not amount too much against ze Germans.

Pep at Man City has the right attitude and a genuine humility and desire to learn and also you get the impression he likes a challenge. The unpredictability of the league makes it exciting -and also very lucrative for us punters because the bookies aren't in control anywhere near as much as they would like to be.

Finally, I have to disagree about your views of the English style/national team. There's no cohesion amongst a set of otherwise world class players - because of the money in the game and the influx of foreign talent in England's top league. Compare this to a team like Italy where it's all players who stayed in the beautiful country, you can see why the team doesn't realise it's potential.

and you can then see why a team like Iceland or Wales does

 

[andrewcalo]

Showing off lol...

 

[Pep004]

Congrats on ticket.  

Otherwise I see what you are trying to say, and I agree with that. On my recent passed coaching license our professor was all the time talking about this influx of foreign talents, but anyway I think that they should do it better anyway. And about Germany.. they're connected team. Really connected. Even if some key players are from BVB, mainly they were from Bayern and with good "friends" on the pitch is everything easier. Just take a look of Spain 2008, 2010, 2012. It was actually whole Barcelona with few players from other clubs and everything worked perfectly fine (7 or 8 players in 1st lineup + 1 coming up from the bench). After 2012, Barcelona started changing (we were used to see 7-8 home-grown players in first eleven, now sometimes happens that there are just 2 or 3 of them. There is much less home-grown players than it was before, there is more and more foreign players (similar like Real Madrid), which means that national team is mixed as well.

Anyway favourites did they're job in this round, but Manchester City as if they don't have enough problems.. lost another key player - Gundogan.

[bet man]

good site btw)