Weekend > Jan 14th & 15th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

@neilovan, @andrewcalo, and @discipline, we all fell foul of that Tottenham versus Chelsea result yesterday. However, @Pep004, you warned us that Spurs could do it and you were right. The big game this round is Manchester United versus Liverpool. Can we get this one right?

@Mindfulness, Palace desperately need something against West Ham. Can you give us some inside views? When is Zaha off to the African Nations Cup? You guys will miss him a lot surely? Or will his absence make you play more cohesively as a team?

@betcatalog, your tip of under 2.5 goals for the Tottenham game was spot on. What are you thinking this round?

@jamiedavies02, you must be tempted by the bookings market for the Manchester United versus Liverpool game!

Also keen to hear the thoughts of @Carovie, @Neubs, @Magic0024, @mrclubbie, @Simeon Borisof, @sajtion, @Bobby Vegas, @vasilli07, @immortal--, and @Kenton Schweppes.

 

[Pep004]

Poch did it with pretty similar tactics in offense as Guardiola wanted to. But his players didn't succeed in front of goal, even if they created much more and better chances than Spurs yesterday. Heatmap of one and others. And as I said yesterday.. in my opinion there is too much of empty space between Luiz and Azpilicueta, specially if Moses is too late with closing the gap at side transformation from 3-4-3 to 4-3-3 (5-4-1).

 

I will try to dig in Lpool - United game, as I feel really good yesterday, when I was correct about the vulnerable spot of Chelsea.  For now, all I can say is that Lpool is crazy with offensive pressing, but as Klopp said they were not able to do it against City, so they needed to adapt. United is playing better and better, I said after draw against Burnley, that if they will play like this, they can be serious contender for top spots in the league. In my opinion they're squad has lots of quality and it will be hard to beat them if they're in form. 

Edited January 5, 2017 by Pep004

[andrewcalo]

Your analysis is sound but like you said the other day it only takes one thing (like a shorter rest than the other team) to muck things up Pep.

That's what we are here for - to confer and such.

[Pep004]

Yes of course. It's football, and there is nothing totally predictable about football.  

[StevieDay1983]

On 05/01/2017, 11:11:41, Pep004 said:

Poch did it with pretty similar tactics in offense as Guardiola wanted to. But his players didn't succeed in front of goal, even if they created much more and better chances than Spurs yesterday. Heatmap of one and others. And as I said yesterday.. in my opinion there is too much of empty space between Luiz and Azpilicueta, specially if Moses is too late with closing the gap at side transformation from 3-4-3 to 4-3-3 (5-4-1).

 

I will try to dig in Lpool - United game, as I feel really good yesterday, when I was correct about the vulnerable spot of Chelsea.  For now, all I can say is that Lpool is crazy with offensive pressing, but as Klopp said they were not able to do it against City, so they needed to adapt. United is playing better and better, I said after draw against Burnley, that if they will play like this, they can be serious contender for top spots in the league. In my opinion they're squad has lots of quality and it will be hard to beat them if they're in form. 

Bloody hell, think this is the first time I've seen someone post a heat map as part of a betting discussion! Haha. This whole industry has evolved beyond all recognition!

[andrewcalo]

Look very closely at the second heat map though...

...the plot thickens...

 

[Pep004]

Yes, they were not able to be as high as City, they were also attacking over left flank much more then City, but pattern how to break Chelsea was not that different. Anyway, it looks that we'll see big fight in last rounds for top4 places as all 6 of contenders looks pretty solid.

[StevieDay1983]

The transfer activity of clubs over the next week or so is going to possibly impact on any betting decisions I make. I'm not sure too many sides will do much business until the latter stages of January when prices of player values drop slightly but we shall see. Something inside me does also think Aguero's suspension could have been the best thing to happen to him. He looks fresh and revived. I would back him to go on a run of scoring form over the next month or so.

[Mindfulness]

11 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Look very closely at the second heat map though...

...the plot thickens...

 

[Mindfulness]

Someone should do a heat map of the Palace training ground, high concentration of red in the fucking treatment room.

[Pep004]

@Mindfulness do you have possibility to watch trainings of CP?

Edited January 7, 2017 by Pep004

[andrewcalo]

Pep is Robert De Niro in Casino and I claim my prize!

[Pep004]

?

[WinningAdvice]

Tottenham received a great boost in their win against Chelsea that's why I'm confident that West Brom would be too easy for them.

I'm also making a punt on a Chelsea win and a draw on the Man United vs Liverpool match. That by the way would be really interesting.

[andrewcalo]

 Pep - 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-riX6Xbvb8w

[Pep004]

Haha I know the movie, but I hope that there is no bomb under my car.  

[StevieDay1983]

32 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

Haha I know the movie, but I hope that there is no bomb under my car.  

Depends how much you win on your next bet! Haha. It will be interesting to see if the shock defeats for Everton, Stoke, and Bournemouth will impact on them. As a Cardiff fan, I can only tell you that when we beat them in 2002 it was the start of their downfall. Could it be the same for other Premier League teams?

[andrewcalo]

Doubt it. They all fielded relatively mediocre teams, although I've no idea why in Stoke's case, or Bournemouth really, both sat mid-table as they are. I know the Bournemouth fans in particular were raging about it.

[Pep004]

Hm.. anyone knows what is happening with Max Gredel at Bournemouth?

[ripple]

Max has struggled to get on the match day squads.

He's now off to the African Cup for the next few weeks

[Spooner]

Haven't posted for a while but I'll return with this....

Burnley DNB v Southampton (13/8 Hills, 6/4 PP) represents excellent value to beat an out of sorts Southampton side. Southampton won the reverse fixture comfortably 3-1 & in truth it could of been more, however Southampton aren't playing like they were then & have suffered a dip in form, with Burnley's home form being solid for a promoted side things could be very different here. The saints have only won twice when playing away from St Mary's in 10 this season. They also have an important semi-final tomorrow against Liverpool which will be a tough game, whilst Burnley have had all week to prepare for this one. Burnley have seen better sides then Southampton off here already & they have to be the play with draw cover. 

[StevieDay1983]

On 10/01/2017, 19:27:19, Spooner said:

Haven't posted for a while but I'll return with this....

Burnley DNB v Southampton (13/8 Hills, 6/4 PP) represents excellent value to beat an out of sorts Southampton side. Southampton won the reverse fixture comfortably 3-1 & in truth it could of been more, however Southampton aren't playing like they were then & have suffered a dip in form, with Burnley's home form being solid for a promoted side things could be very different here. The saints have only won twice when playing away from St Mary's in 10 this season. They also have an important semi-final tomorrow against Liverpool which will be a tough game, whilst Burnley have had all week to prepare for this one. Burnley have seen better sides then Southampton off here already & they have to be the play with draw cover. 

Loving the depth of explanation behind this tip, @Spooner. Hope you stick around and post more.

[Pep004]

I think that Citizens will win against Everton, but for now odds are just too short. I believe that some tipsters can see value on Everton odds, so I will wait, maybe situation with odds will be little bit different on Sunday. City trashed them on first match, missed two penalties and draw was really far from reality. 

[KikoCy]

Hi all, long time lurker here.

Took a break and I am back to my betting ways.

I agree with @Spooner

Lots of value on Burnley 1X (double chance) and DNB.

I will probably go on the U2.5 market and my reasoning is as follows.

Soton are currently in disarray.  I quote from Reddit, with regards to Jose Fonte's transfer request. 

Quote

The can take or leave what you're about to read as bull or not I'm just simply passing on what I've been told. I have no contacts at Saints, none, they all retired long ago, but I do have friends that work at PL clubs in the Midlands and NW, in non playing/coaching roles but involved with players to a lesser or greater extent. It's from them this comes. Their record is good as they told me, and I posted on here, weeks in advance, of the Shaw amd Morgan deals.

I'm guessing gossip travels quickly around clubs as players tend to mix in tight circles.

There was, apparently, a huge bust up after the WBA game, in which senior pros let rip at both Puel and Black, accusing them of being clueless and not up to the job. It almost came to punches being thrown. Some senior pros have told the club, either sort it out, which I assume means get rid of Puel, or the players will leave and some have already instructed agents to see what's available elsewhere. This is perhaps where the Long to WBA or Long to WHU stuff has come from that's been in the press, but I'm just guessing at that. As a result the Chairman had to speak to the players en-mass before the Everton game (I don't know if this means on the day of the game or before they travelled). During and after the Everton game players ignored the manager and Black was told, in no uncertain terms, where to get off by 2 internationals in the changing room. All this in the presence of the chairman. Now I cannot say for certain this is what has happened only that it's the gossip doing the rounds up here. I'm not one for changing managers mid-season but if even some of what has been said is true then Puel is in trouble. As I've said, take it or leave it, call it bull, but it's what I've been told today.

 

This sound a bit similar to Payet's WH transfer request but I have more faith in Bilic being respected in the locker room than Puel.

It could also explain how they closed down Liverpool and played reasonably better than expected, granted Mane was out for LIV; obviously fired up to prove a point.

edit: I thought about this and the return of Shane Long is actually quite important so keep this in mind when betting against Soton. Their ability to get a result will depend on whether he turns up. If I remember correctly, he links up well with Tadic.

Given this, it would be difficult to see if they play for the manager or against the manager. They got smashed at Everton yet bounced back to make the FA cup final.

I am considering for this one:

U2.5 @ 1.60 - Dyche has set up a formidable defensive unit, especially at home. Burnley this season are tripping up team where they are the underdogs, similar to WH last year. Not the same playing style though.

1X (double chance) @ 1.66 is a great price too. All things considered, you seldom get such 1X prices for home teams outside of the big 5.

1 @ 3.60 (Burnley win) is a good price and those feeling risky and backing Burnley can get 1 & U2.5 @ 6.00 which is worth a small stake in my opinion.

 

Other bets I am considering:

Watford - Middlesbrough:

U2.5 @ 1.50. This price is a bit too low for my liking, expected 1.61 - 1.66 but it's worth a shout for any accas I reckon.

Watford clean sheet @ 2.50 - Middlesbrough look generally toothless and incapable of making clear cut chances. Watford's defence not the best but I like 2.50 CS for WAT. My bookie is giving this as MID U0.5 goals at FT.

 

Swansea - Arsenal:

Neil Taylor is out from what I know. 

@andrewcalo you can probably fill us in on the team news but I see Arsenal smashing Swansea.

2 @ 1.53 is alright & -1 EH @ 2.30 also a decent price. Might think about this a bit more tonight before hedging any bets.

 

Spurs - WBA:

Spurs to win to nil @ 1.909 

I only see Matt Philips being a threat in and around the box. 

WBA's main strength is their set pieces with Phillips and more importantly, Brunt being able to deliver good balls to McAuley and Rondon.

Nonetheless, I can't look past Spur's defensive cohesiveness in this one, especially at home. I am sure Poch will prepare for this.

 

Also considering -

Hammers - Palace

 X @ 3.30

A must win for both teams, Allardyce will be prepared but I am sure WH has a point to prove at home, also with the Payet drama going on. Expect Lanzini and Antonio to step up.

Antonio subject to late fitness test, illness. Ayew off to AFCON. 

Payet apparently agreed personal terms with Marseille 30 minutes ago. I quote from yesterday:

Jan 12: "Until he changes his attitude, he is out of the team and he's not going to train with us."

Zaha off to AFCON, Benteke and McArthur subject to a late fitness test.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them cancel each other out.

Perhaps U2.5? 

 

Everton - Manchester City

BTTS @ 1.66

Toffees missing Gueye who I rate highly. Schneiderlin back but lacking match fitness and I can see them frail at the back.

City has been very unconvincing at the back between Otamendi, Stones and Zabaleta. There seems to be communication issues with Bravo and I can't see them keeping a clean sheet at Goodison Park.

Perhaps a Lukaku anytime goalscorer?

 

As a United fan, I am staying away from United - Liverpool. I don't see us losing and Mourinho might park the bus to counter. U2.5 is likely. Biggest game of the season and it will be a reserved encounter I reckon.

None of the other games are much of interest.

Open to any other ideas and feedback.

Good luck.

Edited January 13, 2017 by KikoCy
extra info

[StevieDay1983]

@KikoCy, glad you decided to stop lurking! Haha.

Interesting Southampton rumour, especially after their result in midweek. I actually heard Puel had a very decent rep in the football world. It seems a bit odd that such a bust-up would occur but when players such as Van Dijk and Tadic are wanted by other clubs it would not be entirely surprising.

[KikoCy]

6 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

@KikoCy, glad you decided to stop lurking! Haha.

Interesting Southampton rumour, especially after their result in midweek. I actually heard Puel had a very decent rep in the football world. It seems a bit odd that such a bust-up would occur but when players such as Van Dijk and Tadic are wanted by other clubs it would not be entirely surprising.

 

Indeed, I was also quite surprised about Puel.

I should have mentioned the bust up occured before the FA cup final, around 8-10 days ago. Just before the Everton game.

Just to add, Burnley 4th in the home form table, all the stats also pointing towards Soton dropping points!

[StevieDay1983]

2 minutes ago, KikoCy said:

 

Indeed, I was also quite surprised about Puel.

I should have mentioned the bust up occured before the FA cup final, around 8-10 days ago. Just before the Everton game.

Just to add, Burnley 4th in the home form table, all the stats also pointing towards Soton dropping points!

A little factor to consider is that Sean Dyche was devastated by the death of Graham Taylor. He's certainly going to be emotionally affected this weekend so could see him bring more passion and determination out of his side. I would not be surprised to see Burnley get the win.

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:

Middlesbrough have won 9% of their away matches this season, including 0% of their last 10.
Crystal Palace have lost 60% of their Premier League matches this season, including 71% of their last 14 in all competitions.
West Bromwich Albion F.C. have lost 0% of their away matches by 2 or more goals.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-10/

 

[andrewcalo]

Swansea - Arsenal:

Neil Taylor is out from what I know. 

@andrewcalo you can probably fill us in on the team news but I see Arsenal smashing Swansea.

2 @ 1.53 is alright & -1 EH @ 2.30 also a decent price. Might think about this a bit more tonight before hedging any bets.

 

This is quite an easy call. We have performed well in the past against them and given as good as we got, I think it's five wins apiece and draws.

But we have serious issues at the moment defensively.

I expect Clement to charge the team with sitting deep and parking the buses. Hitting on the counter.

Win for Arsenal.

 

The other game I am having second thoughts on in is Palace West Ham. With all the strife in the dressing rooms, where once I was minded to back the Hammers, now it's anyones game. Depends if Palace go for it or not. They are quite a solid outfit on the front foot if they hit it 100% so it all depends if they can maintain that for 90 and not give WH the chance to get a decent attacking spell in. 

In any case, I'll probably avoid this game.

 

I'm really going for Burnley this round.