Torque

OK but remember you asked.
The OddsPredictor System works by rating each player. Players were given a starting rating for January 2019 based upon 2018 world rankings. After each match the players have a rating gain or rating loss based upon a statistical table created from past seasons. The players' Ratings change after each Result and the Prediction of likely results can be obtained from the difference in rating between the players. For the OddsPredictor system to work a number of variables must be set in the spreadsheet. Defaults have been set but users can amend these variables and therefore affect the number of predictions and level of stakes. Here are a few of the variables that can be changed;
Stake is the maximum amount to risk per match. Typically recommended stakes will be 50% of this amount. This allows you to match OddsPredictor to suit your pocket. 
Rating Factor is the maximum rating change that can occur from one match to the next. So for example if the player's success is expected to be h% and the player wins then the team's rating will increase by (100-h)% of the R Factor.
Rating High above which the R Factor is halved
Rating Low below which the R Factor is doubled
Bonus is the amount added to the rating change for victories by 2 sets to nil.
Surface is the independence between different surface performances. 100% being fully independent
Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.
High maximum margin of risk for determining predictions. Useful for excluding matches with exceptional factors.
Start is the number of matches that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in players' strength from one season to the next.
Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for predictions.
Longshot is the lowest forecast likelihood before excluding a prediction as a longshot. Enter 0% to allow all predictions.
Wiggle Room is the capacity for the system to modify the longshot.
Difference in Rating beyond which no predictions are selected
Knowledge is the level of book knowledge to alter future players' ratings if proved correct.
The system attempts to predict the 'TRUE' odds of a match if such a thing actually exists.
No attempt is made to necessarily select the most likely winner only value is of importance.
Feel free to download my spreadsheets from the OddsPredictor.Org.UK website which is of course completely free.   Thank you for your question but I expect I have bored everyone to death.   PS of the three selections posted to this thread in error 2 won so overall a small profit which is precisely what I am looking for.   3 matches is obviously a tiny sample so means nothing in itself but this season so far I have achieved a return of 13% from 50 selections so personally happy.    As stated in the very first post this was posted here in error and obviously no one here is interested so I will depart.  

And this is a friendly thread in fairness - the vast majority of the time. Been on here a long time and whilst there's been a few trolls, on the whole people on here are genuine and share tips as well as info so it's a thread that has a good feel to it for me 

Well, I'm terribly sorry if you're insulted, we're all mostly friendly chaps in here, but we also like to have a chat about stuff, not only percentages, at least when we don't know where they are coming from. 

Hi @OddsPredictor! Some reasoning would be appreciated, if it's only some sort of a system, it'd be a better fit for Glory Hunters.

New Superleague season starts tonight which should give this thread a chance of emerging from hibernation! After all, I am the forum's undisputed King of Rugby League betting!* 
Wigan v Warrington: 20 points on French to score a try at 13/8 with Fred
 
*based on quantity  of posts rather than quality of selections!

No, that is just Pliskova. She never looks like running or happy or angry or anything basically
 

Just had a quick look at the outrights and this price on the exchanges looks worth taking...
Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Australian Open @ 11.00 Betfair Exchange
Most likely Djokovic wins this, but if he doesn't a Medvedev win wouldn't surprise me. After all, he can beat all those around or above him in the betting. He's beaten Djokovic more than once already and gave him his toughest test in this tournament last year, he very nearly got the better of Nadal in the US Open final and Federer is likely to struggle to win here now after being pushed all the way against Millman. On the basis of his strong end to last season it seems likely he'll win one of the Grand Slams sooner rather than later - I'll be hoping it's much sooner 

Again I agree with you @money44 Kerber's consistency should see her through. Pavlyuchenkova played about as well as she can play against Pliskova - the two points she won when facing set point in the second set were particularly good especially considering the situation - and even then as you said her win was about as narrow as you can get.

@money44 Completely agree about Pliskova. Served terribly and without her serve she's bang average and would be hovering around the top 50. Watching her last night all I could keep thinking was how on earth has she won as many titles as she has and how is she ranked 2 in the world, and of course the answer is her serve - when it's working.

I watched the entire Pavlychenkova match.. She played unbelievable as sometimes she tends to do. Having said all of that.. Karolina Pliskova turned out to be a great matchup for her.. Firstly Pliskova was serving borderline terrible.. She had 6 aces and 4 double faults for the match, but only 62% first serves in which I find hard to believe.. As I watched the match it was just an onslaught of missed serves from Pliskova.. Her baseline game wasn't great either. So I believe that she made Pavlychenkova look alot better, and was the perfect opponent for Anastasia to really look spectacular, and indeed she did. 
If Pliskova is the ace queen on the wta tour.. most of her game does rely on having this enormous weapon. It's true she's got good groundstrokes, and can rival the top competitors, but not yesterday she didn't.. Pavly's ground game was better, and this allowed for complete control of the match.. Look at the scoreline.. She still barely won the match 7-6, 7-6 and she played as well as she possibly could.  She also double faulted 11 times with 5 aces.. I think it's very farfetched to bet on her in the next round vs Kerber, because Angelique is going to return many more balls than Pliskova, and eventually will force the errors.. The slice backhand of Kerber is not a shot that Pav's can just easily direct down the line for a winner like she was doing against Karolina's flat balls.. h2h in this matchup is 7-7- also surprisingly with Pav winning the last match, and Kerber the two prior to that. I do like Pavlychenkova as a person, and a player.. She's really nice woman etc... but you won't find me looking to bet on her next match, and this means something because I did bet on her to beat Pliskova in the last round.  But, I am entertaining a bet for Kerber right now as we speak. 
Gl gents.. Great picks from what I saw @Robinnho, and to Darko and CZech that liked the Rublev pick above.. Well maybe you didn't catch the Zverev match.. He was murdering the ball "up the line" at will and is in pristine form.. My only question marks on his game right now are the fitness levels which I think is normal for him, and I don't see him limping with a knee situation or things like this, and his serve was not as potent as it usually is.. Now I believe the match vs Verdasco was more of a casual affair walking through the park.. He's very comfortable securing that victory, but I have pretty big feeling there is alot more service prowess held in his backpack for a big match vs Rublev who he has never lost to. Zverev looks very confident in his post match interviews to me, and just really enjoying life and his tennis right now. 

Exactly my sentiments, but maybe like me you enjoy the chase even more than the kill, find investigating & number crunching extremely therapeutic.
All too easy in this challenge to have the solutions throwing up a disproportionate number of 1-1 draws, being the most frequent of scores as you've pointed out. Also predicting too few games where one or both team fails to score, where as your stats indicate the home team fails to score in over 20% of games, which increases to over 30% when looking at away team scores. I'm trying to address this by minimizing the error of goals scored by each team rather than aiming for 12X accuracy.
I've used the same technique now with Championship and L1 & L2 games since Jan 1st, and overall the method just about breaks even which is very encouraging in such a high overround environment. L1 & L2 both show profits, it's the Championship which has spoiled the party where returns have been abysmal!

Certainly was on - nearly 60 unforced errors which is embarrassing. Without all those errors there was no way CSN was winning.

It's probably the perception that he's a clay-courter - which he is - but he's had some good results on hard. I think there's some value in those odds.

@Valentine It's general consensus, the bigger the tournament, more money is in the market and more info available, which means more accurate odds, so it's harder to find any kind of edge. It's much easier to find your edge in the smaller tournaments.

Also, if you want to predict results, buy a crystal bowl ? ? You should be focusing on finding value (odds where you think the bookie/market do not have it right) instead of predicting results. Sounds similar, but it's completely different.  

There's a reason I tend to avoid set and game lines - if I back games it loses and sets comes in, if I back sets it loses and games comes in . Anyway, good to see someone won opposing Keys. Like you said @darko08, she was priced far too low which gave the chance to take advantage and back Rus on the handicap.

Hi Data
Not a lover of correct score prediction mainly due to the abysmal overound placed on them, but I do like a bit of stats analysis .
I know you are only doing the prem atm but I like to look at the overall picture.
These Stats are from 137000+ games
Table 1

As you can see 71.9% of CS fall within the green zone with 1-1 being the optimum score @ 12.54 % and 1-0 the NB @ 10.92 , when joined with the yellow zone the sr %age goes to 89.63% with the other scores making up the 10.37% remaining outliers.So I personally would focus on the SR that my model throws up @ 1-0 & 1-1
I dont know how your adjustable variable is incorporated into Solver but a simple setup using solver to reduce SSE by changing the ratings,calculating the mean and constraining H & A average rating to =1 rather than 0 (you cant have negative goals) seems to do the job easy enough.
Ran the solver from Jan onwards same as you, which produced
Table 2

The 1-1 draw seems to be just higher than ave with table 1 (small sample though) 6 drawing 1-1 from 40 games = 15% , when expected 1-1 draws from sample size should be around 5. Although 10 draws were predicted.
We both agree on two 1-1 scorelines tonight so you never know
Best of luck ,hope it works out for you
 
 

Rus on a set plus looks good to me. She played well against Linette - high first serve percentage, low unforced errors - and she's not far off Keys in the power department either. She prefers clay of course, but that means she's used to long rallies and that could definitely frustrate Keys into making errors. Keys is also a rhythm player and she'll likely have to contend with the occasional moonball which will knock her off her stride. Also in favour of Rus is that she's looking really fit - as though she could play hours and hours of high-percentage tennis, keeping the ball in-play and that isn't something Keys will enjoy. I'm less enthused by the game plus here, as Rus could definitely lose a set heavily like she did against Linette in the last round, but a bet on her to take a set looks like a value play to me.

My guess for the drift would be that Kukushkin is so inconsistent in his results. You could make a case that the opening line was based on the ability of both players, and then slowly as the market started to factor in Kukushkin's inconsistency the price on him rose. All hypothetical of course, but plausible I'd say.

I just cannot help it, but I need to react.
Being a pro-tipster does not mean you need to be able to predict how will the tournament finish. Being a pro tipster, you should know, (as you said you are) means to have a long-term ability to find a “good” price, a value price, a price, where you think the chance of X happening is bigger than the odds on offer and market got it wrong. Calling Halep possible loss a big upset seems to me a bit over the top, when market thinks there is roughly 33% chance of it. I call a big upset Shapovalov’s loss 3:1, mainly a big upset for you assuming you back your tips.
 

They were clearly a good selection to win NLN at 5/1, just ashame they've imploded mid-season. We can't always be landing these mid/long odd selections and sooner or later there was going to be a harsh run in the ante-post and it looks like it maybe this season, but like you said we're still only in January and there's a lot of points left to play for.
Even if this campaign ends up being a drought season, we know the selections are sound and we will run better in future.

Ok thanks mate. I guess we gotta stick with those value selections till the bitter end, otherwise we might damage our ROI over the long term by bottling it when the going gets rough.

Hi! I have been out for a long time but this is a Grand Slam so here I am again. 
Corentin Moutet to beat Marin Cilic at 2.62 with bet365
Cilic’s bad form still goes on. 0 finals played in 2019 and now out of the Top 30. He also left bad feelings in the ATP Cup so I can see an early bye from him here. The young talented Frenchman comes here with confidence. He did Final in his previous tournament (Doha) beating there Andrej Martin, Popyrin, Sandgren, Raonic, Verdasco and Wawrinka. He lost the Final against the very in-form Rublev.
Giles Simon to beat (-1,5 Sets) Pablo Cuevas at 1.85 with 888
Cuevas is another player in a very bad form. His performance in the ATP Cup was pathetic. He lost against Nishioka (6-0, 6-1), Nadal (6-2, 6-1) and Basilashvili in 3 sets. He was destroyed in his last match by Tommy Paul (6-1, 6-2) after beating Opelka (5-7, 7-6, 7-6). Im not worried for that win considering that was against Opelka. Simon is not in his best moment but his game and results in the last months are clearly better so I expect Simon to win this with the handicap.
Yoshihito Nishioka to beat (-1,5 Sets) Laslo Djere at 1.76 with 888
Nishioka played very well in the ATP Cup beating Cuevas and Basilashvili in straight sets and putting Nadal in some troubles despite losing the match. Djere has a bad record on hard courts so I expect Nishioka who is clearly the better hard court player here to take this 3-0 or 3-1.
Reilly Opelka vs Fabio Fognini Over 3.5 Sets at 1.51 with Marathonbet
Nothing much to say here. I can’t imagine this match being won in straight sets. These players faced each other in the US Open (Opelka won 3-1). 
I have to take a hard look to the women draw and let see what can I take from there.
 

Here's a bit of speculative fun, with looking at making a profit from one of the most difficult of football markets.
Using Excel's "Solver" I processed the Premier league results to date grid by allocating an adjustable variable for each team's home/away attack/defence ratings to drill down to the best fit of correct scores to the games played to date. Once the best fit is arrived at then simply applying the finished formula to the next set of games.
I figured (rightly or wrongly) that the strategy would need at least half of the season completed in order to have a healthy sample size to be anywhere near "reliable", for this reason I'm only concerned with games from January 1st onwards. The two game days so far this season have given 3 correct from the 20 games played, bet365 odds for these were 8.00 (twice) and 9.00 from indicating two 1~1 results and a 2~1.
Thus far then 25pts return from 20pts staked. Here's this weekend's Excel predictions, can it keep up the profitable momentum?
Watford Tottenham 2~2 Arsenal Sheff United 0~1 Brighton Aston Villa 2~2 Man City Crystal Palace 1~1 Norwich Bournemouth 2~1 Southampt Wolves 1~2 West Ham Everton 2~1 Newcastle Chelsea 1~2 Burnley Leicester 0~2 Liverpool Man United 2~0

This is probably the trickiest Grand Slam we've had to deal with so far in terms of conditions, because this is very different from having some rainy weeks. It's also hard to know how good the air quality is going to be in advance, because there are a lot of factors affecting that. I've also read that the umpires will be able to stop play pretty much indefinitely once the air quality becomes unbearable, although how exactly that is going to work is anyone's guess, because I'm sure that they are going to be pushed to the limit in that regard so as not to delay the tournament unnecessarily (well, unnecessarily for the organizers, that is). The world's elite and a few other lucky players are very likely to be shielded from most of the burden thanks to the three roofs the Australian Open comes with and I'm actually not all that surprised that Federer isn't against playing anymore, since he was likely notified that he's going to get all the right scheduling again, as is very likely to happen with Nadal, Djokovic, Barty, etc. as well.
So what are we to make out of all this? Well, I've ran through the quarters a couple of times and, right now, pretty much the only bet that I'm considering is Barty to win her quarter, because she's been seriously impressive this week and as I'm sure that the organizers are going to do everything in order to increase her chances. So yeah, let's actually stick that out there - Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365 - the other strong players in her quarter are Kvitova (who might have serious physical issues) and Keys, while the rest shouldn't be too difficult honestly.
As for the matches, I think that one has to be somewhat cautious and I honestly reckon that the best strategy to make a profit is to stay up all night, watch as many matches and possible, see how the players are coping with the conditions and bet accordingly. I stand by the Pegula bet that I've posted above, as she really is better than Townsend and as, let's face it, Townsend is the likelier of the two to seriously struggle if heat or bad air shows up. In general, you also have to be very wary of players that haven't played in any events so far or that haven't really performed in them, which is why I also very much like Cori Gauff (-2.5) to beat Venus Williams at 1.93 with Pinnacle. If I remember correctly, Venus withdrew from one of the early events due to some health issues and she has some chronic problems as well, so, unless nerves get to her, Gauff should prevail. I also like Shuai Zhang (-2.5) to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.88 with Pinnacle, because the two are going in different directions at the moment and because Sloane just isn't worth backing unless she's focused and on some sort of a run. She has the right skills for beating everyone, but she's just terrible when off and Zhang has the weapons to put her off and a 5-2 season record to boot. I really am focused too much on women and favorites and this might cost me, but what can I do when I don't see anything else? I'll also be backing three straight set victories on that front, Tamara Zidansek (-1.5 sets) to beat Han Na-Lae at 2.02 with Pinnacle, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Nina Stojanovic 2-0 at 1.80 with Bet365 and Magda Linette (-1.5 sets) to beat Arantxa Rus at 1.85 with Pinnacle. Those are some serious mismatches at the moment as far I see things, especially Zidansek and Pavs. Finally, in terms of qualifiers, I can't ignore Lauren Davis (-3.5) to beat Annie Leylah Fernandez at 1.71 with local and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.62 with local.
That's what I have so far and I'm looking forward to everyone else's suggestions!

Must admit I'm also wary of what the tournament will bring. The conditions are usually difficult enough due to heat and humidity but whilst you can get an idea of which players struggle and thrive in conditions like that due to previous performances, who knows how different players will react to poor air quality. Logic says that they'll all struggle, but if some struggle less than others that could definitely lead to some strange results. Anyway, it's going ahead so let's see what happens but personally I'll be treading very carefully during the first few days and probably during the tournament in general.