Non-League Ante-Post 2019/20

[Darran]

It seems to come around quicker every year, but it is again that time where I try and predict the winners of 7 leagues from the National League at Step 1 to the 4 leagues now sponsored by BetVictor at Step 3. Last season was just under 20pts profit following on from the previous two seasons which were over 20pts. Only one season in the 11 seasons I have done online has seen me make a loss on the ante-post bets. I feel it right to put a disclaimer at the start. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will probably have seen it hasn't exactly been a great summer wise for me after complications with my new-born son and for obvious reasons I haven't felt quite on top of things as I would be in an ideal summer. Therefore I have to thank former member of this forum Shipsupstreets or Paul as he is also known for providing me with his intensive notes so I could get up to speed. I obviously did have some teams in mind, but certainly Step 3 was one I really needed more research on and he has saved me a lot of time. With that out of the way lets move on to the preview itself.

 

National League

Two things to note when it comes to the National League is that favourites have a pretty rotten record and that teams coming down from League 2 really struggle to go back up at the first time of asking. Cheltenham won the title and Bristol Rovers went up via the play-offs, but that is it. Notts County have to defy both those stats although I just don't understand why they are market leaders. They are a team who have had well documented off the field issues and are lucky to not have been wound up, but fortunately for fans new buyers have been found. The club have been unable to sign any players due to a transfer embargo although they have had players playing in friendlies in the hope of signing when things are sorted out. The problem is though how on earth can any wage budget been set so how does Neil Ardley know what he has got to play with so who knows how many he will be able to sign. On the pitch they have done pretty well in pre-season friendlies which did surprise me I must admit, but I stopped using them as a pointer to the season ahead long ago. They look really poor favourites for me and I just can't see them winning the title as I write this. After that it is hard to be confident about how they will go with so many unknowns, but it would be a hell of an achievement for them to win the title and they help make the market.

 

To be fair Notts County aren't favourites with every bookie (9/1 with Betway and BetVictor who have them as 3rd in the betting) with Chesterfield and AFC Fylde heading some bookies lists although both are also as big as 9/1. Starting with Chesterfield and I can certainly see them going much closer to getting back to the Football League than they did last season. You may remember they became the draw specialists under Marten Allen which became an easy way to make money for a good few weeks. They did improve under John Sheridan and they look to have a solid squad ahead of the season. What you have to ask yourself though is they are basically attempting to do what Leyton Orient did last season and are they actually as good as them? In my view they have a lesser manager and not as strong a squad and for that reason they look play-off hopefuls rather than possible title winners.

 

AFC Fylde were one of my bets for the title last season, but they were really frustrating. They hardly lost a game, but they continually drew games away from home that they needed to win if they were going to win the title. Dave Challinor needs to change that this season. What he also needs to change is the reliance on Danny Rowe. They have been very lucky that he hasn't had a mid-long term injury as without his goals they would struggle. They play-off final and FA Trophy Final highlighted that perfectly for me. To be fair to Challinor he has certainly tried to address that issue so it might not be as big an issue as it has been the last two seasons. The other big issue is how play-off final losers always seem to suffer from a hangover. I thought Tranmere would get away with it two seasons ago and it was their slow start which stopped them from winning the title as they were the best team in the league by a mile that season (something highlighted by the fact they went up again last season whereas Macclesfield were nearly relegated). The interesting thing with Fylde though is that winning the FA Trophy might just help them get over that hangover, because they ended the season winning a trophy rather than losing a play-off final. I will be kicking myself a bit if they did win the title, but in what is a wide open league this year I want to be backing teams at double figures and as much as I think they will be in the play-offs at least I think the juice has gone from the price.

 

Having said I want to be backing a team at a double figure price Wrexham just creep into being 10/1 and they are my idea of the champions this season. I don't need to be telling Wrexham fans that they have been in this division for way too long and they really have had a rollercoaster of emotions trying to get out of the league including bumping in Fleetwood when they probably had their best ever season at this level. What they have really lacked in the last two seasons is goals and to a lesser fact having a manager poached from them during the season. Hopefully this season they will score plenty of goals and Bryan Hughes won't be tempted away from the Racecourse Ground. The fact their leading scorer had six last season tells a story, but Hughes has gone all out to rectify that and I really think he has. What they have been very good at is keeping the goals out at the other end of pitch and their defence has basically stayed intact which is very good news. They clearly haven't been far away from title winners the last two seasons and they now look to have the potential to be champions with the squad they have and they are my main bet.

 

Torquay are next in the betting and I just don't get it. I know Paul has them as possible play-off contenders and they might be capable of sneaking into 7th especially as they have a superb manager in Gary Johnson who got a Cheltenham team who weren't the best squad in the league to win the title 3 years ago. Maybe he is the reason why they are so short, but I would be amazed if they won the title. Given my own side have been in the National League South the last two seasons I have watched a lot of it and the standard has been shocking especially last season. Havant and Braintree went up two seasons ago and both came straight back down last season which tells you all you need to know. Now I certainly don't think Torquay will be going down and they were certainly the best team in the division over the last two years. For Johnson to take them from where they were when he took over to winning the league in a canter was impressive stuff, but the fact the league was so bad really helped with that. Johnson hasn't added too much to that squad, but for me they are top half/outside play-off hopefuls and no more than that.

 

Harrogate are next in and they had a surprisingly good first ever season at this level reaching the play-offs. They do actually look stronger than last time around and I do think they will be in and around the play-offs again, but they really faded in the 2nd half of the season and I have always had my doubts about Simon Weaver as a manager which for me will stop them from being possible title winners.

 

We then come to Barnet. I was confident of them having a good season last year with them getting 
John Still in as manager and him then building a really promising squad. Still left at Christmas as things hadn't quite gone to plan and Darren Currie took over. What was especially frustrating was their FA Cup run showed they had serious potential in that squad last season and they were superb against Brentford in one of the best games I have seen in a long time. They also went on a decent run towards the back end of the season again showing what might have been. If Currie can get them to be consistent then they could be in for a very good season and I am tempted to go in again, but ultimately I just wonder if they might need another season before being true title candidates so I am passing at this stage. 

 

Can Solihull go one better than last season? In a word no. Fair play to Tim Flowers as although I certainly thought they shouldn't have been relegations favourites, I didn't think they would be capable of finishing 2nd. When they signed Paul McCallum from Eastleigh I thought it was a real sign of intent, but then nothing else really happened as far as really strong signings went so to me they look weaker than last season. Possible play-off contenders again, but hard to see them making that step up to winning the title.

 

Peter Taylor's Dagenham & Redbridge are next in the betting and they certainly look a more promising prospect than at this stage last season when they had no money and looked real relegation candidates. A takeover meant money could be spent and they did enough to comfortably survive. I had them as a possible team to back at the end of last season given money was to be spent, but it then looks like they haven't actually got that much too spend as I am a bit underwhelmed by the signings. I am also doubtful about Peter Taylor being the right man for the job so I am happy to look elsewhere.

 

Stockport finally got themselves out of the National League last season after getting the better of Chorley in a case of the slow starters (they went out to at least 25/1 for the title having been favs) beating the fast starters. They still aren't fully full time and that is always going to be a hindrance in this league. Top half maybe but hard to see anymore than that. Yeovil are also back at this level for the first time in even longer although of course coming in the other direction. Like Notts County they weren't in great shape, but their takeover happened in mid-June which has helped them. I always like a manager to have non-league experience and Darren Sarll doesn't have that. They look solid enough but I think it will be a year of mid-table obscurity for them.

 

That's every team at 20/1 or shorter mentioned and I have two at bigger prices worth backing. First up is Hartlepool who look a massive price at 33/1. They have suffered badly with picking the wrong manager in their first two seasons at this level, but Craig Hignett looks the right man for the job and he certainly improved them when he took over last term. Based on that and the squad he has I think they should be around half that price and I expect them to have a much better season than their last two. I am also having a small investment in Bromley. One of the smaller teams in the league tend to be surprise promotion candidates and it could well be Bromley this year. They just missed out on the play-offs two years ago when a FA Trophy run got in the way a bit and then they went backwards last season finishing 14 points off the play-offs. I have however been really impressed with their signings over the summer and they look a club on the up having just opened up their brand new stand. They look to be building for life as a possible Football League club and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they were that in a years time. They certainly make more appeal at 25/1 than a few teams shorter than them in the betting.

 

Some people might fancy Dover, but I think Hessenthaler needs another season to completely change them around although they maybe sniffing around the play-offs. McCallum choosing Solihull over Eastleigh spoke volumes for me and I find it hard to see them reaching the play-offs again. Gary Hill did  a wonder job when he took over at Ebbsfleet last season given the off the pitch issues. They won't be getting promotion, but they should go better than their outsider tags. I can also see Boreham Wood having a better season. They really struggled last term after losing the play-off final to Tranmere last May and they look stronger this time around.

 

Bet365 have a handicap market and I think Hartlepool getting 18 points and Bromley getting 15 points are worth a small bet e/w at 18/1.

 

I love getting involved with the relegation market and there looks come cracking value again this year. Aldershot are odds on after being reprieved thanks to Gateshead and they will more than likely be in for another season of struggle, but make no appeal at the price. Alan Devonshire continues to defy the odds at Maidenhead and I wouldn't want to back against him doing the same again this season. I mention above that Boreham Wood should improve and I'm surprised to see Dover so short as well. Chorley could struggle, but I think they are capable of getting the right side of the line. We have the bizarre scenario of Notts County not being listed with Paddy's and Betfair and only 5/2 with BetVictor. In my view they will either go bust or be capable of surviving so I certainly wont be backing them. Another team with issues Ebbsfleet are the same price, but like Maidenhead the manager is more than capable of keeping them up.

 

The two teams I like are Woking and Halifax. As I mention above the National League South was very low on quality last season and the bet on Braintree to come straight back down always looked like being a winner last term. Woking could well do exactly the same as them having been relegated and then winning the play-offs at the first time of asking. Granted they finished 2nd to Braintree's 7th, but I don't think there was a great deal of difference between the teams in the play-offs last season. They didn't really push Torquay close as they were only as close for so long because of Torquay's poor start before Johnson came in as manager. They don't look to have a strong side and I will be shocked if they don't struggle. They should be much shorter than 5/2 to go down. The other team I am backing is Halifax at 2/1. Jamie Fullarton resigned as manager a couple of weeks ago in very mysterious circumstances. That suggests something might not be right at the club and it is hardly ideal for your manager to leave so close to the season starting. With August being such a busy month the new manager Pete Wild who is not only going to have missed out on a pre-season, but is going to have little time in between matches to work on things and get new players in. Granted that will still give them plenty of times to sort things around, but they have a weak squad and things might not be right at the club. Also Pete Wild's knowledge of Non-League football is unlikely to be strong and he is very inexperienced. This is going to be a very tough first full time managerial job

 

Finally I usually leave the top goalscorer market alone as it is always tricky and has seen some surprise winners, but if Danny Rowe stays fit it is almost impossible to not see him in the top 4 at the end of the season. If he was ever going to leave Fylde it would have been over the summer and given he hasn't (they don't exactly need the money) he will be there until April. Fylde will be up there and he will be scoring 20+ goals if he stays fit. Not only are BetVictor top price at 6/1, but they are also going 4 places which looks an e/w steal to me. Bet365's 11/2 first 3 is also more than acceptable.

 

NB Notts County take over confirmed on Friday 26th July.

 

National League South

I am writing this on Thursday evening and it is probably a good thing I am as otherwise I would have had to rewrite the preview as big news came out which has changed my view point on the league a bit. I have been very keen on Havant & Waterlooville all summer. Paul Doswell was a good appointment as manager back in May and it is clear from the signings he has made that the club want to be back in the National League at the first time of asking. Given Torquay and Woking managed that last season it is very easy to see them following suit as their squad looks a cut above all bar one team in the division. Doswell has taking some Sutton players with him and I would say they look a stronger side than they did last season. I still think there is some juice in the price at 9/2.

 

They were going to be one of my biggest ante-post bets and Billericay were just going to be savers, but all that changed when Matt Rhead was announced on Thursday evening. That is a huge signing at this level and although he isn't a prolific scorer, they have Jake Robinson for that, he will help create plenty of goals and he will be able to boss so many defences in this league. He isn't the only good signing either with the likes of Ronnie Henry also joining. Now I obviously have to mention the owner and as he calls himself joint-manager Glenn Tamplin. I really wish he wasn't anywhere near the dugout as I think he is a hindrance there having witnessed it for myself last season. That was in October before the bizarre actions off the pitch. The Non-League Paper ran a story saying they money had run out and they were up for sale and Jake Robinson left amongst others. I never really believed the story though as they still had a good squad although in the end they couldn't recover from a bad spell and even getting Robinson back wasn't enough to see them in the play-offs. I put them up as my strongest bet last season as I couldn't see them out of the 3 and obviously there is a concern that Tamplin could mess things up again, but they have the best squad in the division in what is still a weak league, Havant aside and I honestly can't see anyone else other than the above two teams winning it so I am having the same amount on both teams.

 

Maidstone are next in the betting, but they don't excite me and I am not sure John Still is the right man for the job. No doubt Chelmsford will be up there again as they nearly always are. One year they will gain promotion, but they are going to have to attempt it via the play-offs for me. Sammy Moore left Concord in mysterious circumstances, but ended up at Hemel and has taken Concords best players with him. Concord finished 7th last season and Hemel should be play-off contenders. Bath look solid enough again and should be in and around the play-offs. Welling lost out in the play-off final, but Steve King has left and the budget cut so I can't see them finishing anywhere near the 3rd place King got them to last season. Braintree have got no chance and quotes of 12-14/1 is ludicrous. They have slashed the wage budget and signed a load of young players from leagues below. They will be nearer the relegation zone than the play-offs. Dartford blew a play-off place with a woeful end to the season, but they will be going for one again this term. I can see Eastbourne going better than their big odds suggest as they seem to be giving new manager Lee Bradbury money to invest.

 

I am going to throw in a 3rd small e/w bet to the Havant and Billericay bets and that is my local team Dulwich Hamlet. I actually think Dulwich would have pipped Billericay to the Ryman Premier title two seasons ago had Dulwich not had to move grounds during the season. They were allowed back home half way through the season and were regularly getting crowds in the high 2000's on their return. I went to one game in January and didn't get into the ground until 30 minutes in because of the queues to get in. I am fully expecting them to be the best supported team in the division and with the off the field issues looking better they clearly have money to spend based on the players they have been signing. Gavin Rose is a superb manager and he got his eye in last season and has said he is wanting a play-off place this time around. He has signed well and although on paper they aren't as strong as Havant or Billericay I think they will be capable of pushing them close and at 20/1 they offer each/way value. 

 

National League North

I have made a right mess of this division the last couple of seasons. Choosing York over Salford two years ago and then getting nowhere near with my 3 picks last season. Hopefully I can do better this time around and having initially thought York were poor favourites I am now tipping them to win the title at 5/1. Steve Watson came in during last season and steadied the ship, but he has made some impressive signings and Steve McNulty is a huge one in defence. I don't think the league looks quite as strong as it has in the last couple of seasons and they look more than capable of making that step-up from their first two disappointing seasons at this level.

 

The main dangers for me are Spennymoor and they look a very fair price at 10/1 to go along side York in the portfolio. They would have been in the play-offs two seasons ago, but for having to play a huge number of games in the last couple of months. Then last season they lost in the play-off final to Chorley in a penalty shoot-out. The squad looks strong again and they really ought to be challenging for the title.

 

Chester are 2nd in the betting, but I am just not sure about them this season. Johnson and Morley had an OK first season in charge, but they seem to be talking down their chances a bit and I'm not sure the squad is strong enough to be going for the title. It could be that the managers need another season to get things right.

 

Altrincham look pretty solid again and they should be in the play-off mix. Brackley might drop back a bit as they look weaker than their last couple of seasons. Hereford have strengthened well and Marc Richards will be hoping they will be in the play-off hunt otherwise he will be out a job. Kidderminster had a poor season last time around and I don't really see it getting much better for them this time either.

 

I backed both Boston and Southport last season and I was tempted by both again as Boston look to be better and Southport showed glimpses of how good they could be last season. They are still full time and I think with another summer behind him Liam Watson has strengthened again. I think at 20/1 they are worth a small e/w bet. Darlington also were half tempting as Alun Armstrong did a superb job at Blyth and I think he will get Darlington in the play-off hunt this time around.

 

BetVictor Northern Premier League

The only step 3 league I didn't get the winner off last season as South Shields' dreadful early away form stopped them from beating Farsley for the title and then they failed in the play-offs. They are the team to beat for sure and the signing of Jason Gilchrest was very eye-catching. The problem is with BetVictor being first up and also heavily promoting (understandably) their prices it has meant some of their big prices have long gone and it has meant that the other two bookies, Hills and 365, who have priced up the Step 3 leagues have had their card marked. South Shields are priced up at 7/4 and as much as I think they will win it I can't put them up as a single bet at that price. I do suggest sticking them in any multiple bets you do which is what I will be doing. 

 

Instead I will be putting up 3 e/w against them looking to get at least some e/w money back. Warrington have been strong the last 2 seasons in this division making the play-offs both times and Paul Carden again looks like he has built a squad that look set to challenge for the top spot. 12/1 is a big price about them.  Ashton look like they have an increased budget this season and have attracted some good players from the league above and at 12/1 they look worth backing as well. The final team is Gainsborough. I thought they disappointed a bit last season, but they look to have built a decent squad and at 16/1 they look overpriced.

 

BetVictor Southern Premier League Central

BetVictor made a massive rick when putting Tamworth in at 16/1 and no I wasn't in a position to take advantage at the time. Still I think they are just about value at 4/1 with Hills and Bet365. They did pretty well in the 2nd half of last season and they have made some really impressive signings over the summer and look to have the best squad in the division. With Kettering and Kings Lynn gone this league looks weak and Tamworth look by far the most likely winners.

 

Nuneaton nearly went bust last season, but have had investment and have signed well. They should be play-off contenders, but last season was so bad I just wonder if winning the title is beyond them and they look a bit short in the betting. Stourbridge have a new manager this season in the first time in a long time. They tried to keep with Kettering last year, but were always going to come up short. They should go well again though. Royston and Peterborough Sports warrant mentions as being possible play-off clubs as well.

 

I am going to back a couple of others though. Now this is one bet that really has been led by Paul as I wouldn't be putting them up without him, but he fancies Bromsgrove Sporting and he has sold me on them as well. They were promoted last season and look capable of going up again this term. 16/1 is on the big side. The other team is Rushall Olympic. I put them up last year and they were a bit disappointing, but were much improved in the 2nd half of the season. I like Liam McDonald as a manger and they have a 3G pitch this term and Liam has built his side around that fact. They could pick up plenty of points at home and at 20/1 they are worth a small bet e/w.

 

BetVictor Southern Premier League South

I think this could be the most competitive section with some strong looking teams going for the title. The main bet for me are Weston-Super-Mare who are looking to bounce straight back up. They were woeful last season and deserved to go down, but they have got Scott Bartlett in as manager which I think is a good move and he has signed really impressively. I actually think they have a stronger squad than last year and would be capable of doing OK in the National League South. 10/1 looks a big price to me.

 

Taunton nearly pipped Weymouth to the title and it is no surprise they are in single figures. They should be a play-off team again, but they don't really look like they have progressed as a squad and they might pay for that. Gosport were woeful last year, but suddenly some money seems to have been found as they have signed pretty well. They look rather short to me in the betting though. Hayes & Yeading walked to the title last season and although they have lost some players, they still look strong and should go well as should Poole.

 

I haven't mentioned the favourites Salisbury yet and they are the 2nd team I am going to back at 5/1. They had a good first season back at this level and they look capable of progressing past Taunton who have finished above them the last two seasons. The other bet has been that Paul has pointed me in the direction off and that is Chesham. Had a season very much of two halves last time around, but the 2nd half was good. I know I say I don't pay too much attention to pre-season friendlies, but something about one of their games caught my eye. They thrashed Hampton & Richmond a couple of weeks ago and the Hampton Twitter feed mentioned Chesham were playing the game at the sort of intensity you would expect from a league game. That bodes well for the season ahead and at BetVictor's 16/1 they are worth a small e/w bet.

 

BetVictor Isthmian Premier Division

The scene of the biggest ante-post winner I have ever had as Dorking won in a canter at 33/1. I also put up Margate, Kingstonian and Enfield and they are the same 3 teams I am going to put up again this year.

 

Margate were very average until Jay Saunders came in as manager and they improved massively. They went straight to the top of my teams to back for the following season until he then left. A few weeks later however he was back and that is huge. He has already won this league and really should still be Maidstone manager and don't forget last summer Macclesfield tried to get him. He has signed well and I would have them as favourites so 10/1 is a big price.

 

Kingstonian had a bizarre season last time around. They were terrible, then really good climbing to 2nd and then only got 4 points in 2019 just missing out on being relegated. They have got Merstham manager Hayden Bird in and after he got them to a play-off place last season he has taking 10 of the team with him. That should be to their advantage and they look to have a squad capable of pushing for the title.

 

Enfield also threatened to play a part in the play-offs at least, but disappointed in the end to finish mid-table. Andy Leese has kept the best of the squad though and looks to have added well to it. They really ought to be capable of being in the play-offs at the very least.

 

Hornchurch (they have dropped the AFC now) have been backed into market leaders. They were favourites going into last season as well and looked poor ones at that. It proved to be the case as they were miles off the pace from the start. Mark Stimson came in and improved things a bit to be fair. They seem to have a bit of cash and made some decent signings, but quite why they are as short as 7/2 baffles me as I would have them in double figures myself. Outside of that Bognor, Folkestone, Carshalton and Lewes should be capable of being in the play-off hunt.

 

 

Wrexham 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

Hartlepool 0.75pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365

Bromley 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Marathon and Betway

Hartlepool 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1with Bet365

Bromley 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1 with Bet365

Woking to go down 2pts @ 5/2 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Betfair

Halifax to go down 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor

Danny Rowe 1.5pts e/w to be top goalscorer @ 6/1 with BetVictor (4 places)

 

Havant & Waterlooville 2.5pts @ 9/2 with Bet365

Billericay 2.5pts @ 5/1 with Bet365

Dulwich Hamlet 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365

 

York 2pts @ 5/1 with Bet365

Spennymoor 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

Southport 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet 365

 

Warrington 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365

Ashton 0.75pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

Gainsborough 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

 

Tamworth 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

Bromsgrove 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor

Rushall Olympic 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor

 

Weston-Super-Mare 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

Salisbury 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365

Chesham 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor

 

Margate 1pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

Kingstonian 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with BetVictor

Enfield 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365

 

Total points - 41

 

NB price on Rowe now gone with BetVictor but still 11/2 with Bet365

[sammydubs]

You tease! 

[blueboy199]

Cheers mate. Great effort. 365 wouldn't let me put a bean on below the National League (but let me put £3 each way on Wrexham, surprisingly). I managed to get about 17 points on in various places, at pretty much at advised prices, so probably better than I expected! I'll revisit for a proper read and to see if any books have opened markets in a bit. Good luck, mate

[Tiffy]

@Darran

Nice write up mate,

I have to agree with your summary on Torquay. I have a ST there for the coming season, so will keep a close eye on them and report back. Most supporteres are hoping for a top 6 or 7 finish, but Johnson wants to take them back up. They have looked very fit pre season, and have played some god football too. I know that you can't read to much into this, but 2 of those matches were local derbies, so there was more of an edge to those games.

I think we need to see how Jamie Reid copes this season. I think National South may be his  level. Manny Duku looks a decent addition, as does the new goalie & the lad from Woking. GJ is hopeful of bringing in 2 or 3 more, and if they are of the level that he wants, and he can then get an extra 10-15% out of the squad, then Torquay could do alright you know.

Your man in the SW

In addition to that... ST sales have gone crazy, and there was a crowd of nearly 3400 for the home friendly V Plymouth. Torquay weren't even getting close to that before GJ turned up.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Tiffy

[Darran]

Just shows you that all most fans want is a successful side as like you say they all came back when the title was on the cards last season and that has obviously carried onto this season. Maybe they were a quality side in a weak league and Johnson is a superb manager as he has proven, but I just can't see them getting anywhere near to winning the league and thus at 12/1 they are awful value.

[yossa6133]

If you had to pick one bet, which would it be? Billericay?

[Darran]

12 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

If you had to pick one bet, which would it be? Billericay?

Well I’m fairly confident Billericay or Havant will win the league but as the staking suggests it’s tough to call which one out of the two will do so. 

[gruja]

Great to hear from you Darran, hopefully everything will be good with your son, just stay strong!

[washy1987]

Great write up as per!

As a Billericay fan, it’s quite a fascinating / worrying position to be in! Glenn’s obviously got his mind back (but for how long..?) and feeling refreshed.. but a couple of dodgy results here and there after splashing big money and we could face the same situation as last seasons debacle....

Anyway, some of the signings like Nunn and Gunning are massive improvements on what we had and there’s no doubt we should literally be fighting for the title. My only concern is trying to get them all to gel as a team. Suppose we will see today, but it’s going to take a little bit of time to make it work. Either way, it’s going to be a funny season ?

 

[Darran]

Should have known better than to think things had changed at Billericay. Wouldn’t be the first time he’s changed his mind but players already leaving and they won’t be winning the league. I would advise anyone who did back them to cash out and take a part loss rather than a whole one

[Mindfulness]

Cheers for the headsup @Darran

I've abandoned the Tamplin Titanic as advised, it was a ship of great potential and even greater ambition but I get the feeling those icy undercurrents were just the tip of the ice berg.

[Darran]

1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

Cheers for the headsup @Darran

I've abandoned the Tamplin Titanic as advised, it was a ship of great potential and even greater ambition but I get the feeling those icy undercurrents were just the tip of the ice berg.

The thing is with the squad they had it was hard not to back them, but then I am not surprised it has turned out the way it has. Granted at the time I had no idea he was going to force his son to be picked and as much as he says that has nothing to do with it I don't believe him at all. O Hara has said he is staying as manager but then he can afford to do it for nothing. There will be some hefty wages and someone will have to pick up the cheque otherwise they will be going out of business quickly. What's surprising is that a lot of people were thanking him and saying well done to him on Twitter today both Billericay fans and non Billericay fans. Will be interesting to see if those people say that if the worst happens. The whole time he has been at Billericay there has been all sorts of rumours about him and the club that it is hard to know what was and wasn't true. I still get the feeling we haven't heard the last of Glenn Tamplin though. 

[Darran]

So with Christmas approaching I thought I would look back at the ante-post bets and try and predict who might win the titles from here.

National League

Wrexham 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

Hartlepool 0.75pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365

Bromley 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Marathon and Betway

Hartlepool 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1with Bet365

Bromley 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1 with Bet365

Woking to go down 2pts @ 5/2 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Betfair

Halifax to go down 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor

Danny Rowe 1.5pts e/w to be top goalscorer @ 6/1 with BetVictor (4 places)

This is looking a bit of a disaster to be honest although if Bromley can win the title then at least we will end up with a profit. Wrexham have been a disgrace and fair to say I got them badly wrong. They should be doing so much better than they are and they do seem to be finally improving, but clearly they aren't going to be winning the title. Whilst we are on getting predictions wrong Woking and Halifax have been nowhere near the bottom of the table. I usually manage to nail one of the relegated teams, but that won't be happening this season as Woking and Halifax have done much better than predicted. With Fylde not doing so well Danny Rowe hasn't been scoring many goals either and whilst you couldn't completely rule out him going on a scoring spree it is looking like that won't be a winning bet either. So can Bromley win it? I wouldn't rule it out and it has been a very odd season, but I just get the feeling they are drawing too many games to actually win the title and I wouldn't be backing them at the moment. Barrow are on an amazing run given they didn't look anything special in the early weeks of the season. That run is surely going to end at some point and as well as they are playing I just wonder if they have the depth in their squad to see it out. As they showed in the FA Trophy against Atherton the fringe players don't seem good enough to back up the 1st team and that concerns me as the games will start to pile up. At this stage I think Solihull are the most likely winners. I think the way they lost to Rotherham in the FA Cup affected them mentally against Wrexham and I wouldn't be using that result as a guide they are about to go on a bad run of form. 7/2 is probably a little on the big side in my opinion given it looks to me a 4 horse race. The other team to consider is Yeovil and it could be argued they are a bit big each-way as well. They have been in good form and I'm a bit surprised by how well they have done. They have made themselves hard to beat and I do like their front line which looks strong.

Winners - Solihull with Yeovil looking e/w value

National League South

Havant & Waterlooville 2.5pts @ 9/2 with Bet365

Billericay 2.5pts @ 5/1 with Bet365

Dulwich Hamlet 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365

I advised to cash out on Billericay bets once Tamplin left so at least that limited the damage there. I think Havant will still win the league and they will continue to improve as the season goes on. They have had some injury issues and will only get stronger as they come back to full fitness. I think they can catch and pass Wealdstone who had a very impressive start to the season, but there have been signs that they aren't as good as Havant and I'm not sure they will hold on to their current advantage. I can't see past one of those two winning it.

Winners - Havant & Waterlooville

National League North

York 2pts @ 5/1 with Bet365

Spennymoor 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

Southport 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet 365

This looks a two horse race between York and Kings Lynn. I am not surprised Kings Lynn are doing as well as they are as I was very impressed with them when I went to watch Gloucester play them earlier in the season. They haven't been beaten at home for a very long time now and that is crucial for them. My concern is they seem to be struggling a little with injuries and I don't think they have much depth in the squad. York don't have those issues and I would be surprised if they don't prove too strong for them come April. Spennymoor suffered a play-off hangover, but they have got themselves back into the play-off picture and along with Southport they both have a chance of landing the e/w money. If Spennymoor had made a better start they would be title contenders. 

Winners - York

BetVictor Northern Premier

Warrington 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365

Ashton 0.75pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

Gainsborough 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

Ashton have been shocking and Gainsborough haven't been much better so those will be losers. I'd be disappointed if Warrington didn't finish in the top 3 though and they could push South Shields close. Ultimately though my thinking that South Shields would win the title before the season started is still what I think now.

Winners - South Shields

BetVictor Southern Premier Central

Tamworth 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

Bromsgrove 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor

Rushall Olympic 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor

It's dangerous to think a team have already won the league before Christmas, but I find it hard to see Tamworth not winning the title from here to be honest so hopefully that is one winner. Bromsgrove are one of the main challengers as well so that is handy. Rushall aren't too far away, but I would be a little surprised if they were able to end up in the top 3 from here.

Winners - Tamworth

BetVictor Southern Premier South 

Weston-Super-Mare 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

Salisbury 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365

Chesham 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor

Weston have been very frustrating. They really should be higher up the table than they are, but they have lost silly points and that has cost them. Salisbury have drawn too many games and they look too far behind as well. The winners should come from Truro, Tiverton, Chesham, Taunton and Swindon Supermarine although Poole do have a lot of games in hand. It would be great if Chesham could win it, but for me I think Truro are the most likely to stay there as they have been so consistent during the season. Taunton have recovered well after some poor results in August and they could well turn out to be the biggest dangers.

Winners - Truro

BetVictor Isthmian Premier

Margate 1pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

Kingstonian 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with BetVictor

Enfield 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365

Until recently I though Enfield were looking likely winners, but they have suddenly forgotten how to defend and they can't stop conceding goals. They still aren't out of it, but they need to turn things around fast. I think this is the trickiest league to call as quite a few teams look in contention, but I like the look of Bognor who are 20/1 with Bet365. They had a horrid start to the season, but they have won 7 of their last 9 games and lost just one of them. They had that very impressive 7-2 over Cray last time out and that proved they are capable of closing that gap. Worthing and Folkestone could be the biggest dangers, but e/w at 20s looks too big a price to me.

Winners - Bognor

[Mindfulness]

Thanks for the update @Darran

Have added Bognor Regis Town EW (3 places) @ 21.00 Bet365 to my ante-post portfolio as a value bet.

[Ratty]

Darran, I recall that you added a recommendation on Barnet several months ago after they signed a striker. I see no mention of this in the latest update.

[Darran]

4 hours ago, Ratty said:

Darran, I recall that you added a recommendation on Barnet several months ago after they signed a striker. I see no mention of this in the latest update.

Correct and they duly went on a poor run of form after putting them up. Chances are it will be a loser although the Racing Post did tip them up at a massive price for promotion today.

[Mindfulness]

@Darran, after yesterday's results, what are your thoughts on cashing out York and/or Havant selections with very slight loss or stake returned?

[Darran]

3 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

@Darran, after yesterday's results, what are your thoughts on cashing out York and/or Havant selections with very slight loss or stake returned?

Havant still have a good chance as they have games in hand but York have played 2 more games than kings Lynn so I would be surprised if they caught them now. I’m going to remain the optimist myself though 

[Mindfulness]

Ok thanks mate. I guess we gotta stick with those value selections till the bitter end, otherwise we might damage our ROI over the long term by bottling it when the going gets rough.

[Darran]

Worth remembering York were at least as short as 1/2 at one point. I do fear though that it is going to be a rare season that I don't make a profit on the ante-post stuff and it could be a hefty loss as well. You are always learning when it comes to betting and I think my staking was all out this year. It should never have been as high as 41 points and it should have been lower. Still we are only in January so hopefully we can get as close to 41 points as possible.

[Mindfulness]

11 hours ago, Darran said:

Worth remembering York were at least as short as 1/2 at one point

They were clearly a good selection to win NLN at 5/1, just ashame they've imploded mid-season. We can't always be landing these mid/long odd selections and sooner or later there was going to be a harsh run in the ante-post and it looks like it maybe this season, but like you said we're still only in January and there's a lot of points left to play for.

Even if this campaign ends up being a drought season, we know the selections are sound and we will run better in future.

[Johnmccain]

Football league steps 3 and 4 to terminate the season it's looking like (the league's below National League North & South).

All ante-post bets would have to be refunded then by my reckoning?

[Darran]

On 3/26/2020 at 7:50 AM, Johnmccain said:

Football league steps 3 and 4 to terminate the season it's looking like (the league's below National League North & South).

All ante-post bets would have to be refunded then by my reckoning?

Sorry only just seen this as not been in this part of the site for a while. Bet365 are yet to refund, but William Hill and BetVictor have.

[Johnmccain]

Got tired of waiting for Bet365 to refund the steps 3 & 4 ante-posts. Very unprofessional of them. If you request your money back from them in live chat or by email they will refund immediately.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Johnmccain

[Darran]

1 hour ago, Johnmccain said:

Got tired of waiting for Bet365 to refund the steps 3 & 4 ante-posts. Very unprofessional of them. If you request your money back from them in live chat or by email they will refund immediately.

My guess is they were waiting for it to be confirmed officially which it wasn’t until Thursday afternoon. All bets were voided yesterday afternoon