harry_rag

that almost goes without saying, why bother for something expected, when it affects minimally your market? obviously, xg, rating systems etc have more to with goal and side markets

have no doubt at all that since data are available for cards, such a model will be (if there is none yet) created
expected data are not nonsense (this is not implying you will have to work less to stand a chance in the market)

Yeh @BillyHills!!! and when are you going to have that vaccine ready by??? We don't care how you get rid of the virus, just get rid of it! I can probably guess the reason you haven't done it by now is because you couldn't be bothered, hanging out at Chequers with @Sir Puntalot and @StevieDay1983 eating Hobnobs and making a killing off the Belarussian league while the rest of us starve!!! 
We've had enough of you guys, you better bring back the free money soon or we're off to run our own competitions. AND DON'T THINK WE WON'T!!! We've got Skype, we know how to play poo sticks, we know how to keep accounts and train pigeons to deliver coinage. 
They say history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme, and things are looking very mid-17th century for you guys, I know the people will back me on this one - SO BEWARE!!!
PS - I've gone too far this time, I was bored, I'm sorry.

Tranmere win the game 2-1 and also manage to draw the corner match-up 5-5 so a comfortable winner with the start.
14 winners and 2 pushes from 25 bets, 5.23 points up with an ROI of 23.26% to advised stakes, 6.86 points up with an ROI of 27.44% to level stakes.

Well back home after short hospital stay, although I think they're far from finished with me yet.
Poor return from the weekend picks, only 3 correct scores from the 45 attempts, £450.00 staked returned a paltry £255.00.
Is this the wake up call that begins the downfall of this project? A sign of things to come, or simply a hiccup?
All 269 bets so far leaves an accounting sheet showing £2,690 staked returning £3,015 in winnings a 12% ROI
Full results with correct score odds where appropriate were;
7.3.20 12:30   Liverpool   Bournemouth 2 1   3~1   7.3.20 15:00   Arsenal   West Ham 1 0   3~2   7.3.20 15:00   Crystal Palace   Watford 1 0   1~0 8.00 7.3.20 15:00   Sheffield United   Norwich 1 0   2~0   7.3.20 15:00   Southampton   Newcastle 0 1   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Wolverhampton Wanderers Brighton 0 0   2~1   7.3.20 17:30   Burnley   Tottenham 1 1   1~0   8.3.20 14:00   Chelsea   Everton 4 0   2~1   8.3.20 16:30   Manchester United   Manchester City 2 0   1~2   9.3.20 20:00   Leicester   Aston Villa 4 0   2~0                         6.3.20 19:45   Nottingham   Millwall 0 3   1~1   7.3.20 12:30   Bristol City   Fulham 1 1   1~1 6.5 7.3.20 15:00   Barnsley   Cardiff 0 2   2~2   7.3.20 15:00   Birmingham   Reading 1 3   2~1   7.3.20 15:00   Brentford   Sheffield Wednesday 5 0   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Charlton   Middlesbrough 0 1   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Leeds   Huddersfield 2 0   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Preston   Q.P.R. 1 3   2~1   7.3.20 15:00   Stoke   Hull 5 1   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Swansea   West Bromwich 0 0   0~1   7.3.20 15:00   Wigan   Luton 0 0   1~1   8.3.20 15:00   Derby   Blackburn 3 0   1~1                         7.3.20 15:00   Accrington Stanley   Tranmere 1 2   2~1   7.3.20 15:00   AFC Wimbledon   Bolton 0 0   1~0   7.3.20 15:00   Fleetwood Town   Blackpool 0 0   1~0   7.3.20 15:00   Ipswich   Coventry 0 1   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Lincoln   Burton 3 2   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Milton Keynes   Doncaster 0 1   1~0   7.3.20 15:00   Peterborough   Portsmouth 2 0   2~0 11.00 7.3.20 15:00   Rochdale   Rotherham 3 1   1~2   7.3.20 15:00   Shrewsbury   Oxford 2 3   0~2   7.3.20 15:00   Southend   Bristol Rovers 3 1   0~2   7.3.20 15:00   Sunderland   Gillingham 2 2   1~0                         7.3.20 13:00   Scnuthorpe   Grimsby 0 2   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Carlisle   Colchester 0 3   0~1   7.3.20 15:00   Cheltenham   Port Vale 0 0   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Crawley Town   Oldham 3 0   0~0   7.3.20 15:00   Crewe   Stevenage 3 1   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Leyton   Cambridge 2 1   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Newport   Morecambe 1 0   2~1   7.3.20 15:00   Northampton   Mansfield 1 2   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Plymouth   Macclesfield 3 0   2~0   7.3.20 15:00   Salford City   Bradford 2 0   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Swindon   Forest Green 0 2   3~0   7.3.20 15:00   Walsall   Exeter 3 1   0~2    
 
And the National League that we ignore (just as well another losing Saturday!)
7.3.20 15:00   Aldershot   Dagenham & Redbridge 0 1   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Barrow   Notts County 0 2   2~0   7.3.20 15:00   Chorley   Chesterfield 1 2   1~0   7.3.20 15:00   Dover Athletic   Yeovil 0 1   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Fylde   Solihull 0 0   1~2   7.3.20 15:00   Halifax   Woking 0 2   1~1   7.3.20 15:00   Hartlepool   Ebbsfleet United 0 1   2~1   7.3.20 15:00   Maidenhead United   Boreham Wood 0 1   1~2   7.3.20 15:00   Stockport   Barnet 1 1   1~1 6.5 7.3.20 15:00   Sutton UTD   Torquay 2 0   1~2   7.3.20 15:00   Wrexham   Eastleigh 0 0   1~0   7.3.20 17:20   Harrogate Town   Bromley 1 1   2~0   The National League account now stands at £520 staked, £260 returned. A regime that loses £5 for every £10 staked.
 

This week we have:
Tranmere +3 corners v Accrington, 1pt at 10-11 with Sky Bet.

Total wipe out from yesterday's games leaves our accounts standing at:  total invested £2,240, total returns of £2,760. A ROI of 23.2%
This weekend's games up a little earlier this week due to me being under the knife and general anesthetic in hospital tomorrow, I'll be back whenever ...
The £520.00 profit in hand means even a total blank on this lot will still keep our heads above water;
7.3.20 12:30   Liverpool   Bournemouth       3~1 7.3.20 15:00   Arsenal   West Ham       3~2 7.3.20 15:00   Crystal Palace   Watford       1~0 7.3.20 15:00   Sheffield United   Norwich       2~0 7.3.20 15:00   Southampton   Newcastle       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Wolverhampton Wanderers Brighton       2~1 7.3.20 17:30   Burnley   Tottenham       1~0 8.3.20 14:00   Chelsea   Everton       2~1 8.3.20 16:30   Manchester United   Manchester City       1~2 9.3.20 20:00   Leicester   Aston Villa       2~0                     6.3.20 19:45   Nottingham   Millwall       1~1 7.3.20 12:30   Bristol City   Fulham       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Barnsley   Cardiff       2~2 7.3.20 15:00   Birmingham   Reading       2~1 7.3.20 15:00   Brentford   Sheffield Wednesday       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Charlton   Middlesbrough       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Leeds   Huddersfield       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Preston   Q.P.R.       2~1 7.3.20 15:00   Stoke   Hull       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Swansea   West Bromwich       0~1 7.3.20 15:00   Wigan   Luton       1~1 8.3.20 15:00   Derby   Blackburn       1~1                     7.3.20 15:00   Accrington Stanley   Tranmere       2~1 7.3.20 15:00   AFC Wimbledon   Bolton       1~0 7.3.20 15:00   Fleetwood Town   Blackpool       1~0 7.3.20 15:00   Ipswich   Coventry       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Lincoln   Burton       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Milton Keynes   Doncaster       1~0 7.3.20 15:00   Peterborough   Portsmouth       2~0 7.3.20 15:00   Rochdale   Rotherham       1~2 7.3.20 15:00   Shrewsbury   Oxford       0~2 7.3.20 15:00   Southend   Bristol Rovers       0~2 7.3.20 15:00   Sunderland   Gillingham       1~0                     7.3.20 13:00   Scnuthorpe   Grimsby       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Carlisle   Colchester       0~1 7.3.20 15:00   Cheltenham   Port Vale       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Crawley Town   Oldham       0~0 7.3.20 15:00   Crewe   Stevenage       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Leyton   Cambridge       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Newport   Morecambe       2~1 7.3.20 15:00   Northampton   Mansfield       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Plymouth   Macclesfield       2~0 7.3.20 15:00   Salford City   Bradford       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Swindon   Forest Green       3~0 7.3.20 15:00   Walsall   Exeter       0~2  
 
. . . and the ones to ignore, but published anyhow are . . .
7.3.20 15:00   Aldershot   Dagenham & Redbridge       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Barrow   Notts County       2~0 7.3.20 15:00   Chorley   Chesterfield       1~0 7.3.20 15:00   Dover Athletic   Yeovil       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Fylde   Solihull       1~2 7.3.20 15:00   Halifax   Woking       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Hartlepool   Ebbsfleet United       2~1 7.3.20 15:00   Maidenhead United   Boreham Wood       1~2 7.3.20 15:00   Stockport   Barnet       1~1 7.3.20 15:00   Sutton UTD   Torquay       1~2 7.3.20 15:00   Wrexham   Eastleigh       1~0 7.3.20 17:20   Harrogate Town   Bromley       2~0

take care. hope all goes smoothly and speedy recovery. 

Another postponed game so no update required this week.

With hindsight I'd have preferred another postponement! Never surprising to see your team out cornered when they've won the match. 1-0 to Oxford but 3-7 on corners. That's a 3rd consecutive losing bet after a run of 6 straight winners. Normal service resumed next week hopefully!
13 winners and 2 pushes from 24 bets, 4.325 points up with an ROI of 20.121% to advised stakes, 5.95 points up with an ROI of 24.79% to level stakes.

2 out of 2 yesterday though both left it late. 31 points returns 100.4 for a 69.4 point profit.
17 winners from 44 bets (38.64%). 746 points returns 899.13 for a profit of 153.13 points with an ROI of 20.53%.

19.2.20 19:30   Manchester City   West Ham 2 0   3~1                         18.2.20 19:45   Southend   Gillingham 0 1   0~3   18.2.20 19:45   Oxford   AFC Wimbledon 5 0   2~0                         18.2.20 19:45   Macclesfield   Plymouth 1 1   1~1 6.5 One correct from the midweek four at 6.5
Ongoing account now showing stakes £1,160 returning £1,425 for an ROI of 22.84%
Onwards & upwars eh?
 
National League, both games incorrect, now £120 staked, £65 returns. Best left alone!
 
 

Nope, seems clear enough to me and doesn't impact me, mainly because I don't have an account with them! 
They reckon that 99.8% of their customers will be on the standard commission rate of 2% of net profit in each market so totally unaffected by this. The remaining 0.2% will be mainly high volume traders. Anyone looking to trade in that style will just have to factor that commission basis into their calculations before deciding whether a given trade is worth it or not.

Well, the less sports, markets and bookies involved then the less benefit you're going to get I suppose. If you're backing, laying, buying and selling across lot's of sports and firms then it's miles better to have it all in a spreadsheet. Even with one firm, how much detail can you take in at a glance and how far back can you view? (Usually at least 6 months and up to 12 generally I'd say.)
You could always import or copy and paste your bet history into a spreadsheet for a bit of periodic scrutiny, whether monthly, quarterly or yearly. Might be interesting to see whether certain leagues are more profitable than others or whether unders are better than overs etc. The brain tends to play tricks on us, if we have a good spell on a certain market we tend to think we do well at it but looking at the wider picture can tell a different story.
It depends on your time and inclination but I'm well into the habit now and definitely find it worthwhile.
Perhaps the more pertinent question would be why would anyone only bet on one sport and with one bookie! 
I'm playing devil's advocate to an extent with that comment. There's certainly a rationale for specialising to some extent thought I'd say that if the one sport is football then it's the hardest one to gain an edge in because there's so much data available to everyone, especially the odds setters. I can't see any argument for just betting with one firm though. You're almost certainly playing at sub optimum odds for the majority of your bets and you're stuck if and when that firm starts to limit you. Just my view though, based on my experience.

Essential in my opinion. Doing what you suggest is fine if you're a recreational bettor who just does it for fun, doesn't mind if they lose a bit in the long run and doesn't want to spend much time on betting. (Which is a perfectly acceptable state of affairs and applies to the majority of people who bet, but perhaps less true of many who post on forums such as this one).
Record proper results in a spreadsheet and you can do detailed analysis of your strengths and weaknesses, which sports, markets and firms you do well and badly with. That can help you eliminate bets that you do badly on and focus on placing more winning bets (and, perhaps, staking more on your strongest areas).
Don't do it if you don't feel inclined; this is just a hobby and you should only invest as much time and effort in it as suits you. But don't fool yourself that it isn't worth the effort if you're placing a lot of bets. The potential is there to make £100s or £1000s difference to your bottom line, whether that be reducing how much you lose, turning a loss into a profit or increasing profits already being made.

Well, the less sports, markets and bookies involved then the less benefit you're going to get I suppose. If you're backing, laying, buying and selling across lot's of sports and firms then it's miles better to have it all in a spreadsheet. Even with one firm, how much detail can you take in at a glance and how far back can you view? (Usually at least 6 months and up to 12 generally I'd say.)
You could always import or copy and paste your bet history into a spreadsheet for a bit of periodic scrutiny, whether monthly, quarterly or yearly. Might be interesting to see whether certain leagues are more profitable than others or whether unders are better than overs etc. The brain tends to play tricks on us, if we have a good spell on a certain market we tend to think we do well at it but looking at the wider picture can tell a different story.
It depends on your time and inclination but I'm well into the habit now and definitely find it worthwhile.
Perhaps the more pertinent question would be why would anyone only bet on one sport and with one bookie! 
I'm playing devil's advocate to an extent with that comment. There's certainly a rationale for specialising to some extent thought I'd say that if the one sport is football then it's the hardest one to gain an edge in because there's so much data available to everyone, especially the odds setters. I can't see any argument for just betting with one firm though. You're almost certainly playing at sub optimum odds for the majority of your bets and you're stuck if and when that firm starts to limit you. Just my view though, based on my experience.

so for someone who bets only in one sport and uses only one bookie
is it still usefull?

Essential in my opinion. Doing what you suggest is fine if you're a recreational bettor who just does it for fun, doesn't mind if they lose a bit in the long run and doesn't want to spend much time on betting. (Which is a perfectly acceptable state of affairs and applies to the majority of people who bet, but perhaps less true of many who post on forums such as this one).
Record proper results in a spreadsheet and you can do detailed analysis of your strengths and weaknesses, which sports, markets and firms you do well and badly with. That can help you eliminate bets that you do badly on and focus on placing more winning bets (and, perhaps, staking more on your strongest areas).
Don't do it if you don't feel inclined; this is just a hobby and you should only invest as much time and effort in it as suits you. But don't fool yourself that it isn't worth the effort if you're placing a lot of bets. The potential is there to make £100s or £1000s difference to your bottom line, whether that be reducing how much you lose, turning a loss into a profit or increasing profits already being made.

Dont think you understand the concept.
You were already in the consolation comp and chose Newcastle last week, therefore you were eliminated.
The people in the list above who had Newcastle last week were knocked out of the main competition and dropped into the consolation comp.
 

Yes, Today 3 out of 6 with more than 55% yield
 
Last 30 days
More than 25% in 50 games in all markets
More than 100% in 20 games in DRAW market
It is too good..don-t know what to say. Check the Suggestions module but keep calm, look for info then make your own decision.
 

New Superleague season starts tonight which should give this thread a chance of emerging from hibernation! After all, I am the forum's undisputed King of Rugby League betting!* 
Wigan v Warrington: 20 points on French to score a try at 13/8 with Fred
 
*based on quantity  of posts rather than quality of selections!

Sunderland win the game 1-0 but a comfortable 11-6 for the hosts on corners. Another win albeit one where anyone would have struggled to get on at the quoted odds.
12 winners and 2 pushes from 20 bets, 5.95 points up with an ROI of 32.16% to advised stakes, 7.2 points up with an ROI of 36% to level stakes.

As the stars have aligned for those three teams all to be at home tomorrow, I couldn't resist sticking them in a trixie! 21/10, 13/8 and 15/8 with Betway.

Disappointing to have a winner but no money on due to missing the price. Update to follow as usual.

I can't, I admit defeat, what with Benfica still to play their week 3 game while Celtic and Liverpool are already into week 6! I've got better things to do with my time, bettingwise and real lifewise!
Some concluding thoughts for those of you avidly following my ramblings. 
Would these bets bets be profitable if backing singles? - Well, I make it that the 6 teams have played 57 home games this season and the bet would have landed in 26 of them, that's 45.61% implying "true" odds of 2.19. So on the basis that we seem to be getting better odds than that, it looks like it would have yielded a profit so far. I'd ditch Benfica (0 from 8 so far) and PSG (1 from 9) and Celtic are underwhelming (4 from 11) but Liverpool (8 from 11), Barca (7 from 9) and Juve (6 from 9) combine for 21 from 29 or 72.4%. 
You'd have obviously coined it backing those 3 teams till now but you know what they say about past performance being no guarantee...
Would there have been any mileage in backing them in doubles? - Well, where there's a positive edge you multiply by backing doubles so let's assume so. I make it 22 winning doubles from a potential 135 if we'd backed them all. At assumed average odds of 2/1 we'd have got 198 points back for a 63 point profit.
Would the staking plan mentioned in the opening post have outperformed level stakes? - I believe not. With Benfica still to play one more game, I've looked at the first 9 games for all the teams. The 22 winning doubles would have had the following stakes on them, 1 point x 12, 2 x 5, 5 x 1, 6 x 1 and 9 x 1. Should Benfica oblige at the 9th attempt that would add 2 more 9 point winners. So a maximum of 5 doubles with more than 2 points staked.
The best double was Liverpool and Barca which landed 6 times. With the 2/1 odds assumption, that would have returned +255 points to level stakes but just +59 to the staking plan. Celtic and Juve obliged twice, once with 6 points on, and the return was +55 points from both staking approaches. PSG and Barca would have finally landed with 9 points staked beating level stakes by 45 points to 5. So the most likely outcome is that level stakes will convincingly outperform increasing ones. I can't see any reason to assume it's worth hoping you get 8 losers and land your winner on the 9th bet and let that dictate your staking plan.
So there may be teams who will show a profit if backed at home to win/btts and Liverpool, Barca and Juve are worth putting on the shortlist. Back them in singles, maybe in doubles. But I can't recommend an increasing, loss recovery style approach to the staking. Phew, glad that's finally over!