KikoCy

Dortmund v Monaco

The over 2.5 goals is the obvious choice here, but 1.44? I'd rather stick my head in a blender, after all it's not guaranteed. I think the Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.90 BetVictor is well worth considering, because I don't see Monaco going to Dortmund and piling on an all out attack, you can easily get killed in Dortmund doing that.
However, I'll go for the slightly safer bet of Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.80 (4/5) @ Skybet  

Away for the weekend and not a lot of time to do a write up - please do your own research gentlemen.
Liverpool - Everton: BTTS @ 1.65
Arsenal - City: BTTS @ 1.533
Swansea - Middlesbrough: 1 @ 1.952
Watford - Sunderland: X2 or Sunderland +1 EH @ 1.952

Do we have a play of the day for football thread?

There are plenty of factors to take in to consideration when putting money on teams.
Form, sentiment of team, what they have to win/lose and of course statistics.
Form is easy to trace, team news usually gives answers to their morale and sentiment and their league positioning speaks towards the win/lose scenarios.
Statistics are my bread and butter and I want to share a few useful links here. 
 
The Stats Don't Lie This website has stats on football and horse racing. 
I only use it for football where you can compare globally, the best teams based on the factors chosen such as BTTS, Overs/Under etc.
Of particular interest and kinda special to this website are:
BTTS and win Early goals Scored first Scored in both halves Win to nil O1.5 team goals The list goes on and on...
 
    2. FootyStats
Similar website to above with a lot of similar metrics.
The interface is much better however as you can sort by league and most BTTS, average goals, form at home vs away etc.
Of particular interest:
Daily games with form Average stats between teams H2H Overs/unders, results, BTTS, HT results etc. Total percentages of the above correlated to their opponent giving an average Own metrics of home advantage vs away advantage -> how their performances differ between home and away Average goals by months, 10 minute or 15 minute increments Frequent scorelines A lot of useful ones there.
  
    3. WhoScored
This is a well known one.
The only reason I use WhoScored is for form, bookie prices and most importantly, match specific absences (injuries or suspensions).
They cover previews for big leagues and they are decent but I wouldn't follow the correct score previews.
Finally, I am not affiliated with any of these sites.
I hope you find them useful 
 
p.s. drop any useful websites in this thread.

It's OK. Standard punishment is @Sir Puntalot taking you out the back and giving you 100 lashes of the whip. On this occasion, we're willing to make an exception. Just the 25 lashes!

I'll have a pint of whatever you're drinking!  

They have a small chance of beating AM overall, but I just can't see it. Monaco look a huge price to beat Dortmund away, they should never be 5.25!

What a tasty line-up of fixtures this weekend, from a neutral standpoint at least.

Staying away from United as it's stressing, being a United fan and putting money on them. They should keep a clean sheet vs Karanka's men and that game has U2.5 written all over it.
Sunderland vs Burnley another tight encounter that I expect Sunderland to nick, barely.
I don’t see much value in the other elite leagues so I will go big on EPL as I am going away for the weekend and want to come back to a fat payoff.


 
Everton – Hull


 
4th best defence at home vs Hull who have failed to score in 43% of their games (3rd worst).

Big Rom has never scored in 4 consecutive games but I am sure he will turn up, looking for another lucrative offer to take him away from Goodison after rejecting a contract extension.

Baines is back, providing a boost at the back; should allow 3-4-2-1 which means a clean sheet for me!


Everton win to nil @ 2.5


 
Bournemouth – Swansea

Both these teams are scoring and conceding for fun.

Bournemouth is leaky at the back and lack discipline in defence. Swansea is clawing their way out of relegation and Gylfi has hit a nice patch of form.

I predict goals in this one.

BTTS @ 1.55 lacks value so my pick for this is Over 2.5 @ 1.75

Swansea also has a very tempting price at 3.5


 
Stoke – Chelsea

Chelsea want to wrap this up ASAP and their quality speaks for itself. Moses out but any punter following EPL this season knows that Chelsea will score two and concede max 1 in this game.

Stoke did well against City in their last way game and picked up some form at home, notably holding Everton to a draw too.

I think Chelsea has too much depth compared to Everton and any one of their players can turn up.

Too much quality and their formation is stifling and penetrates teams that sit back.

Chelsea @ 1.615 is a steal.

Chelsea HT/FT @ 2.45 also great.


 
West Brom – Arsenal

Arsenal are undergoing their usual ‘start of the year pressure’ and this will be a must win for them, to get that weight off their shoulders.

West Brom is decent at home and Pulis’s sides always do decently at home but have conceded 1.21 goals on average per home game.

Arsenal has the highest BTTS % in the league, 77% away from home and has failed to score in only 8% of their games. They average 2.23 goals scored away.

An average of 67% of games between these two these season have gone O2.5.

Over 2.5 @ 1.833

BTTS and Arsenal win @ 3.4


 
West Ham – Leicester

The Hammers have lost their last 4 and won only 1 of last 6.

They have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches,

The Foxes seem to be on the up and up, bashing bookies left right and center over the past week.

Still, they are winless in their last 15 away games (!), failed to score in their last 4 away games and the odds reflect this.

These stats are contradicting and this game could very well go either way.

I will back Over 2.5 @ 1.833 as both teams will be out to win this.

West Ham to score from a set piece or Lanzini outside the box, Vardy to hit a counter and perhaps score one of the 29 chances he will get.


 
Spurs – Soton

Easy, Spurs win for me here. They are on fire and despite Kane being out, I am sure Son will slip in and keep the momentum going.

They are unmatchable at home.

Soton have scored 4 in each of their last two games despite losing to Swansea and West Ham before that. They are good at keeping U2.5 but I can’t see them putting up much of a defence. Gabbiadini has proven how deadly he is  but the prices exist for a reason and that is Spurs solid defence. Soton also have a great defence but I see Spurs scoring more than conceding

Over 2.5 @ 2.00, justified price for those interested

Spurs win @ 1.7 is a steal

Spurs win & O2.5 for me @ 2.625, small unit on this.


 
Man City – Liverpool

Arguably the game of the weekend and I see certain punters backing City.

I will back Liverpool here and the reason for this being that they are formidable against the top 6 and then drop points against mid-tier teams.

This is the type of game they thrive in, specifically Mane.

City will be tired from Monaco I reckon but will still put up a decent fight.

BTTS is likely here too and Sane/Aguero/Sterling are more than capable of nicking a goal vs Liverpool’s defence which is arguably their weak point.

Henderson out is a massive blow but Wijnaldum and Can have picked up their form recently.

I would expect Yaya Toure to make a cameo to provide the physicality in midfield and KDB should be looking to make amends for the terrible performance and Parc des Princes midweek.

BTTS @ 1.5

Liverpool & BTTS @ 6
 
 


Best of luck gentlemen.

What a tasty line-up of fixtures this weekend, from a neutral standpoint at least.

Staying away from United as it's stressing, being a United fan and putting money on them. They should keep a clean sheet vs Karanka's men and that game has U2.5 written all over it.
Sunderland vs Burnley another tight encounter that I expect Sunderland to nick, barely.
I don’t see much value in the other elite leagues so I will go big on EPL as I am going away for the weekend and want to come back to a fat payoff.


 
Everton – Hull


 
4th best defence at home vs Hull who have failed to score in 43% of their games (3rd worst).

Big Rom has never scored in 4 consecutive games but I am sure he will turn up, looking for another lucrative offer to take him away from Goodison after rejecting a contract extension.

Baines is back, providing a boost at the back; should allow 3-4-2-1 which means a clean sheet for me!


Everton win to nil @ 2.5


 
Bournemouth – Swansea

Both these teams are scoring and conceding for fun.

Bournemouth is leaky at the back and lack discipline in defence. Swansea is clawing their way out of relegation and Gylfi has hit a nice patch of form.

I predict goals in this one.

BTTS @ 1.55 lacks value so my pick for this is Over 2.5 @ 1.75

Swansea also has a very tempting price at 3.5


 
Stoke – Chelsea

Chelsea want to wrap this up ASAP and their quality speaks for itself. Moses out but any punter following EPL this season knows that Chelsea will score two and concede max 1 in this game.

Stoke did well against City in their last way game and picked up some form at home, notably holding Everton to a draw too.

I think Chelsea has too much depth compared to Everton and any one of their players can turn up.

Too much quality and their formation is stifling and penetrates teams that sit back.

Chelsea @ 1.615 is a steal.

Chelsea HT/FT @ 2.45 also great.


 
West Brom – Arsenal

Arsenal are undergoing their usual ‘start of the year pressure’ and this will be a must win for them, to get that weight off their shoulders.

West Brom is decent at home and Pulis’s sides always do decently at home but have conceded 1.21 goals on average per home game.

Arsenal has the highest BTTS % in the league, 77% away from home and has failed to score in only 8% of their games. They average 2.23 goals scored away.

An average of 67% of games between these two these season have gone O2.5.

Over 2.5 @ 1.833

BTTS and Arsenal win @ 3.4


 
West Ham – Leicester

The Hammers have lost their last 4 and won only 1 of last 6.

They have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches,

The Foxes seem to be on the up and up, bashing bookies left right and center over the past week.

Still, they are winless in their last 15 away games (!), failed to score in their last 4 away games and the odds reflect this.

These stats are contradicting and this game could very well go either way.

I will back Over 2.5 @ 1.833 as both teams will be out to win this.

West Ham to score from a set piece or Lanzini outside the box, Vardy to hit a counter and perhaps score one of the 29 chances he will get.


 
Spurs – Soton

Easy, Spurs win for me here. They are on fire and despite Kane being out, I am sure Son will slip in and keep the momentum going.

They are unmatchable at home.

Soton have scored 4 in each of their last two games despite losing to Swansea and West Ham before that. They are good at keeping U2.5 but I can’t see them putting up much of a defence. Gabbiadini has proven how deadly he is  but the prices exist for a reason and that is Spurs solid defence. Soton also have a great defence but I see Spurs scoring more than conceding

Over 2.5 @ 2.00, justified price for those interested

Spurs win @ 1.7 is a steal

Spurs win & O2.5 for me @ 2.625, small unit on this.


 
Man City – Liverpool

Arguably the game of the weekend and I see certain punters backing City.

I will back Liverpool here and the reason for this being that they are formidable against the top 6 and then drop points against mid-tier teams.

This is the type of game they thrive in, specifically Mane.

City will be tired from Monaco I reckon but will still put up a decent fight.

BTTS is likely here too and Sane/Aguero/Sterling are more than capable of nicking a goal vs Liverpool’s defence which is arguably their weak point.

Henderson out is a massive blow but Wijnaldum and Can have picked up their form recently.

I would expect Yaya Toure to make a cameo to provide the physicality in midfield and KDB should be looking to make amends for the terrible performance and Parc des Princes midweek.

BTTS @ 1.5

Liverpool & BTTS @ 6
 
 


Best of luck gentlemen.

Yeah, decent price. Bastia have thrown spanners into the works a bit this season so we shall see. I know it's not the most advisable bet but I'm being drawn to Nancy. I was going to back Lorient due to Nancy's awful form but then I thought "that's the exact sort of game that would screw me". It's madness but I'm tempted to go with my gut.

All the punters and discussions are pointing to a BTTS or O2.5 situation.
Personally, I don't see any value so staying away.

@StevieDay. I see big chances for Anderlecht to beat Apoel again.
I watched the match in Nicosia. Anderlecht is definitely a quality team. They did not show much of their quality because the score was 0-1 early.
Today i expect to see the real power of Anderlecht. They are famous as a strong home team. I noticed that are very ambitious for the Europa Legue competition, they are hungry to progress in final8 first time since 1997. 
Apoel has HUGE losses today. Morais, Vinicious, Efrem, all are out! Pieros is back. I predict a big hole in Apoel's midfield! Vinicious and Morais are irreplaceable indeed! The Danish coach of Apoel is obliged to experiment in such a crucial game! 
Anderlecht -1 to beat Apoel @2.30 offered by Tipico. Decent selection in my opinion
I predict something like 2-0 or 3-1
Good luck punters!

Leverkusen is in poor condition and is required to play aggressively if they want to qualify, but Atletico are experienced in good condition that can exploit the weaknesses of rivals
ATLETICO MADRID vs BAYER 04 LEVERKUSEN @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.72
Monaco has no other way than to come out on the field and attack from the start, I think you will again see game with many goals
AS MONACO vs MANCHESTER CITY @@ +3.00 Over, odds 1.62

Palermo has 18 goals in 27 goals overall in the league. Roma need to return to winning ways to remain in orbit Champions League, can exploit the weaknesses of Palermo, who has the second worst defense in the division with 53 conceded goals, Roma can make an easy victory
US PALERMO vs AS ROMA @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.62
Inter whole league has 16 to 27 over 2,5 and 9 to 13 over 2,5 home. Atalanta has a total of 15 to 27 over 2,5 and 8 to 12 over 2,5 away. A very important game for both teams, the winner will take the lead for fifth place, so I give it all to win all three points of victory, stay away from the point and suggest the Goals
INTER MILANO vs ATALANTA BERGAMASCA CALCIO @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

Bornemouth v West Ham
In Whams away games they have scored in 85% of them, kept a clean sheet in 8%, and BTTS in 77%. Bournemouth score in 77% of their home games, and BTTS in 54% of them. The odds for BTTS are a shitty 1.53, so in view of Bournemouths injury and suspension problems..
West Ham and over 2.5 goals @ 3.75   
West Ham & BTTS @ 4.50
(odds from Skybet)

I am going little bit stronger with Marseille and Nice in this round. As both analysis are long as f*  I will publish only links to my site:
- Marseille - Angers
- Nice - Caen
I think that both home teams are underrated here, and that odds will drop till Friday.

Very good approach. Congratulation.
Another proof that knowledge closely a team makes the difference. Many years ago I started a project on a smaller forum. Made a team and each guy had in responsibility one team. His mission was to be the shadow of the team. He knew everything about the players, manager...if the keeper had an affair with the manager's wife..absolutely all. Now, when one team appeared on schedule the guy were the "primadona" and give as good info. 
The idea was that you, as a isolate player do not have the time resources to know too much...but together is something else.
 
On the other hand if the games will be played again tonight I would say  the same things and I will play the same :))
 
 

Yup, I'll agree with that too. I'll get our ELO ratings automated for next season on this and CL (if possible) and see how they work out.  

Plymouth have been utterly shit and a dodgy bet for weeks. 1 win in 6. Pathetic. 
I can't believe some people are still backing Scunthorpe. 2 wins in 10. No wins in their last 8.
Ended up 2/4 for tonight. It's a shame Barnsley missed so many chances tonight and Newcastle couldn't find a goal.
Delighted with my cheeky -1 QPR corners bet. Unlucky on Reading/Newcastle @Tiffy
 
Raith Rovers v St Mirren
The (a) team have found renewed energy in recent weeks after a dismal time of it the Scottish Championship. They're now on a run with only 1 defeat in 6 in all competitions (W4 D1 L1) 
The one loss came at the hands of Premier League Celtic where they gave a very good account of themselves, taking the lead and then having Celtic manager Brendan Rodgers describe them as the best team to come to Celtic Park this season (an exaggeration no doubt but high praise). They are now only 5 points from getting out of the bottom relegation spot and this is a team has much, much more talent than it has shown.
Raith on the other hand are not going well; NO WINS in their last 17! 1 draw and 5 defeats in 6.
BET : ST MIRREN DnB at 1.73
 

Made a decent profit of a BTTS/Win double yesterday.
For today, you guys seem to have done the mental gymnastics so I will chime in with my selections:
Barca - PSG
Verratti anytime card @ 2.25
Busquets anytme card @ 2.25
Barca win & BTTS @ 2.4
Dortmund - Benfica
O2.5 @ 1.44
Dortmund & BTTS @ 2.7
 
BTTS/win double  @ 6.48

@Notorious, stop taunting please. You have been warned about this before. We are all here to work to beat the bookies, not each other.

Paddy Power offering 1.80 on Manchester City to be winning at HT and FT. Very tempted by that tonight. Anyone else with any bet tips relating to tonight's single Premier League game?

Made a decent profit of a BTTS/Win double yesterday.
For today, you guys seem to have done the mental gymnastics so I will chime in with my selections:
Barca - PSG
Verratti anytime card @ 2.25
Busquets anytme card @ 2.25
Barca win & BTTS @ 2.4
Dortmund - Benfica
O2.5 @ 1.44
Dortmund & BTTS @ 2.7
 
BTTS/win double  @ 6.48

Made a decent profit of a BTTS/Win double yesterday.
For today, you guys seem to have done the mental gymnastics so I will chime in with my selections:
Barca - PSG
Verratti anytime card @ 2.25
Busquets anytme card @ 2.25
Barca win & BTTS @ 2.4
Dortmund - Benfica
O2.5 @ 1.44
Dortmund & BTTS @ 2.7
 
BTTS/win double  @ 6.48

City - Stoke
Can't really see Stoke scoring (was considering City/BTTS @ 2.7) Stoke are sub-par away from home. City will need the 3 points to carry them in to their upcoming games vs LIV, ARS, CHE City winning at HT in 54% of games (2nd highest behind Chelsea's 59%) City winning at HT/FT in their last 4 games Stoke losing at HT in 33% of games City HT/FT @ 1.7 for me; 2u -> most value IMO.
Small stake on 4-0 to City @ 14.00; 0.5u
 

Borussia Dortmund v Benfica
The German side are big favorites coming into the match on the back of some impressive results and goal scoring. Dortmund is a club that has established a firm European pedigree in recent years, whilst they also play in a league that is superior the (a) side. The Portuguese were lucky not to concede 1 or 2 in the home tie and despite them being determined in defense I just can't see them seeing this one out. I was surprised by how poor Benfica were and I expect Dortmund to step up here for their fans. Reus is a big miss but they have great strength in depth in that position.
BET : Dortmund -1 (ah) at 1.91
BET : Dortmund to qualify at 1.73