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Trotter

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    RACING CHAT - Thursday 26th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    My system relates to NH rather than the flat. I think it may relate to the fact that in NH older horses are perhaps more well known and therefore potentially over-bet.

    I have found that this system is not very effective in March and April, perhaps the same logic appears here as in your flat example.

    I suppose a horse reaches it's peak at a certain age, I think this is 5 on the flat, not sure what it is for hurdlers and jumpers.

    Yes, you're right, my 'system' is for the Flat

    I have thought about trying to adapt my system for the jumps but haven't been able to get a handle on it ...... I suppose logically handicap hurdles would be the place to start as most horses start their jumps career over hurdles

    Might take another look at that !

    What I have found is that there is often a big age range over jumps as some horses start off as juvenile hurdlers, others as novices, others in bumpers, others in point to points ...... it might be worth thinking along the lines of 'number of races run in' rather than just age. Concentrate on the runners who haven't run many times regardless of what age they are

    RACING CHAT - Thursday 26th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    A bit of a losing run at the moment for my young handicappers system but that is the downside with a low strike rate system. 

    There is a selection in the 3.41 at Taunton, which is a BET365 feature race. 

    MEMPHIS BLEEK 12/1

    I have a bit of a system for handicaps in which the first race card filter is 'select the two youngest age groups in the field' so usually 3 and 4 year olds in all aged handicaps, the second filter being 'distance win' then draw ....... I posted a month's worth earlier in the year and managed to finish the month with a small profit after 100 plus selections

    However ........that system is for early to mid season when the younger horses are more likely to be less exposed and still improving relative to the older horses ......... and of course they're getting decent weight for age allowances

    By this time of year the handicapper has probably got a grip of most 3 and 4 year olds and they've found their level in the handicap and the WFA has disappeared

     

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