Icongene

Wow. My Saturdays have been AWFUL for 2 weeks.
Morecambe truly shat the bed today. Where on earth did that performance come from?
Not even Forfar came in 
To be honest League One and Two today has been a nightmare for punters.

West Bromwich Albion V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 1.769 (Matchbook)
Going to put my money where my mouth is as I believe my analysis of Palace is correct and we have turned a corner. Team news looks fine, competition for places is strong, morale is high. New personnel and change of module has bough about a seed change in Palace's play, we should not fear West Brom here.
As I've said before West Brom performances will not drop and they will still be on a mission. People will point to the fact that they have won 4 home games in a row but I do not like to support long winning sequences from teams outside the big 6 in EPL. All those home wins came against donk teams and although many on here still believe Palace are a donk team I no longer share that view due to recent events. Note how skybet have a West Brom win in their enhanced odds acca this weekend; they believe the selection is a potential banana skin.
Don't get me wrong, I think West Brom are a very solid outfit at this level, but I find it hard to envisage them outscoring Palace tommorow. Statistics and even recent history can't always give you a complete picture when it comes to making the right decision in betting. Markets aren't stupid, to make money you sometimes have to step out and be first to call something. I will put my money and credibility at risk by saying Palace have the momentum here.

@vasilli07 Was spot on with his analysis of Palace in previous thread. An uninteruptted 2 week period of training has allowed Allardyce to develop the team and incorporate his new signings to good affect.
Things of note from Middlesbrough game:
Palace reverted to a flat back 4 in what was essentially a 4-1-4-1 module with Sakho starting alongside Tomkins in heart of defence while Milivojevic was deployed as the midfield pivot. One of my main gripes with Palace over the last year or so is a lack of assuredness and leadership through the spine of the team. Both Sakho and Milivojevic performed well on Saturday and it finally looks like we are starting to develop some backbone.
We almost had a fully fit squad for Middlesbrough game and competition for places is strong; Dann, McArthur and Schlupp all started from the bench and the added competition for places is boosting the performance levels of the players that do start such as Townsend, Puncheon and Cabaye.
The 4-1-4-1 module has improved our attacking play as we now push forward in greater numbers and provide better support for Benteke. Having players like Van Aanholt and Schlupp is great because they both have good engines and get up and down the flanks well to provide overlaps for Townsend and Zaha.
I do feel we were handed a circumstantial advantage against Middlesbrough as they had a personnel crisis in the full-back positions. Karanka had to revert to a 3 man defense due to missing players and this really played into our hands with Zaha and Townsend giving makeshift wing-back Downing a torrid time.
I feel it was a deserved win for Palace as we played with confidence and performed well throughout the game. Credit to the fans who got behind the team, important if we are to win our home games.
Heading into the West Brom game:
Be interesting to see the Palace team news nearer the time as I believe both Cabaye and Zaha took knocks in the Middlesbrough game
You can be sure that West Brom are one of the EPL teams that do not hit the beach early. You play for your place under Pulis, often he will start someone with overall less quality as a fooballer simply because they work harder and follow his instructions to the letter. They may have reached the magical 40pt mark but I do not expect them to drop off from here. I remember when Pulis managed Palace, we performed really well right to the end of the campaign and ended up finishing 11th which was extremely impressive given the state of our team when he joined. Now compare them to Stoke Those glamour boys are hitting the great barrier reef as we speak, right on schedule.
I feel Palace can pickup a positive result on Saturday but it will be tough. West Brom are so good with their attacking set-pieces and will look to exploit any weakness from Hennessey as they did with Boruc at the weekend.
Will try and post something regarding the other matches later in the week.

One day you might get to see a pair son.....

Wow. My Saturdays have been AWFUL for 2 weeks.
Morecambe truly shat the bed today. Where on earth did that performance come from?
Not even Forfar came in 
To be honest League One and Two today has been a nightmare for punters.

Hi guys
PSG vs Nancy Home Win / PSG 1.5 / PSG 2.5
Opposite side, opposite form. Nothing to say more.
MHSC vs Guingamp Home Win
To my mind, Guigamp will be now concentrate on french Cup who they're use to succeed in. Their bench os too short and now, they're folling down in table. Anyway, they're safe. On the other hand, MHSC since the arrival of Le Gasset is better. Full squad tonight and no match during the week.
Lorient vs OM BTS / Over
Defenses are weaker than attacks and I see goals here. Even if Gomis is still out for a long time, Payet, Thauvin... are able to score as we seen against Monaco. Lorient fight to satay in Ligue 1 and can't stay behind. Goals.
TFC vs Lille Home win
Bielsa's come back, but not yet ! Passi instead ? What is doing the new manager with the coaches, with his incoherent mercato ?? I don't understand but I see the results and they're not here. So at home, where TFC use to succeed, I don't see any surprise.
Bastia vs ASSE Under / Draw
8 draws at home for Bastia, currently their best result, again this week. And Les Verts use to draw also and above all don't score a lot. Obvious !

A little heads up tip, that Forfar, top of League 2 in Scotland play 2nd bottom Clyde and are available at 2.3 which is huge. 
Clyde have finally appointed an interim management team after their last (Barry Ferguson) resigned. The new team are 2 of the 1st team players with NO management experience so I can't see it playing out in the usual 'new manager effect' scenario.
Clyde's record; Played 10, lost 8 drawn 2. 7 of the last 8 in the league have been defeats. 
2.3? go on then.

Alright folks. The Scottish Leagues are deathtrap to gamble on as any team can beat anyone, its inconsistent, but it still remains the best league for value stakes imo, and if you get it right can be very profitable..
Can't pick my nose recently on the Forum, hope you all made some money laying my selections on Betfair    I feel though i have been unlucky as i feel my picks have been solid. Anyway to keep going here is my spot for this week, tail at your own risk haha. 
 
Stirling Albion are 9/4 away to Cowdenbeath in the League 2.   Cowdenbeath look like a side that's already given up on the season their recent form reads  W1 D0 L9  in their last ten games, That 1 win was against today's opponents on New years Eve 2-1. They have sacked Dean Brett this week  who was an experienced right midfielder for them (historic investigation into gambling offences)  Stirling Albion in contrast have a recent record of W3 D4 L3 in their last 10 games and are unbeaten in 4.  They have won their last 2 games against form teams in the division, in Elgin and Edinburgh City, which indicates an upturn in performance from them.  9/4 is simply too big a price to ignore imo and i'm going to have some of that. 
 
I thought in midweek that the resignation of clueless Bazza Ferguson from Clyde might galvanise the players into producing a performance, i was wrong, this young team of kids lack the mental toughness for a scrap and Clyde are in big trouble. Montrose dominated the game on weds, and they aren't a great side. Although ironically they held Forfar at the weekend...This is the kind of spot is ideal for Forfar to get their recent stuttering form back on track. They have simply too much firepower for Clyde. 13/10 is simply too big a price too ignore and i will have a nibble at this.
 
Kilmarnock recent record W2 D4 L4   Motherwell Record W1 D2 L7    Kilmarnock some signings in the Jan Window as they recognised the signs of deteriorating form. As a result they have been rewarded with a good run of results that has lifted the team into mid table security. They have w2 d2 L1 their last 5. The loss was very unlucky as they played very well against a strong Aberdeen side holding a 1-0 till the last 10mins and conceding 2 late goals. so really they should of been looking at being unbeaten in 5. Motherwell in contrast are in a hapless position atm and are in free-fall losing their last 4 on the spin, losing an incredible 17 goals in the process, yes 17 in 4 games wTF!!.  I expect Motherwell to play a tight game defensively but  i think Kille will edge a close game at home. at odds off 6/5
 
so i will play the following today along with some other picks
 
£10 on Stirling at 9/4
£10 on Forfar at 13/10
£10 on Killie at 6/5
£5 on the treble  Stirling/Forfar/Killie
 

A little heads up tip, that Forfar, top of League 2 in Scotland play 2nd bottom Clyde and are available at 2.3 which is huge. 
Clyde have finally appointed an interim management team after their last (Barry Ferguson) resigned. The new team are 2 of the 1st team players with NO management experience so I can't see it playing out in the usual 'new manager effect' scenario.
Clyde's record; Played 10, lost 8 drawn 2. 7 of the last 8 in the league have been defeats. 
2.3? go on then.

Ok here goes. Tip of the weekend coming right at you all the way from Toronto, Canada.
Blackpool v Morecambe 
I've been looking at this one for a couple of days now as often find you can get some really good big value odds on the division before the market levels out. So I was pretty stunned to see the visitors as high as 5.0 for the win, 3.25 DnB and 1.9 double chance.
When I first cast my eyes over this fixture (before odd checking) my immediate thoughts were that I'd be inclined to favor the (a) sides ability to avoid defeat over the (h) teams ability to win matches. So you can imagine my surprise/delight to see these ridiculous odds. Having followed them closely for a day or two and they haven't moved an inch! Now I've done my research and there is ABSOLUTELY no reason for the discrepancy in probabilities here between the sides and the bookies are well off.
Blackpool - They have tasted victory ONCE since December. 1 win in 15. No wins in 4. 1 clean sheet in 10 overall, 1 in 9 at (h). They have some decent prowess in the attacking 3rd but defensively they are poor and most importantly lack the mentality to win matches. 
Morecambe - 1 defeat in 11 matches. Only 1 defeat in their last 8 (a) ties (3W 4D 1L). They've also conceded none or 1 goal in 7/8 matches so getting goals past this team is tough. They have proven against far better attacks than Blackpool (recently Portsmouth, before that Doncaster, Carlisle, Mansfied) that they can grind out results even against the best. This is not fluke, it's now a consistent trait and they are one if the toughest (a) sides in the division.  They have just moved above Blackpool in the league and their manager is talking of the players playing with a freedom and that they can enjoy the rest of the season and push for a playoff spot (only six points off) which is nuts given how poor they were for the 1st half of the campaign. 
Other than Michael Rose at CB (2 match suspension) Morecambe are injury free and Blackpool have some bodies coming back into contention.
Morecambe - Double Chance 1.9 + DnB 3.25
 
Edit: not that I've bet on it, but I really think Hartlepool are a good shout to take something from their game. I think their (h) form will see them stay up and Exeter have been rocking a little. Looking back, it's crazy how much money could have been made from betting against the top three teams in Jan/Feb as they all had terrible runs.

One day you might get to see a pair son.....

Backed Birmingham on the corners tonight. Outright at 2.25 & +1 at 1.8. It's half time and they are leading the count 5-0!

Price for morcombe is interesting. They have only lost 1 game in the last 7 and are good away from home. They got a good draw at Portsmouth midweek. Blackpool have not won at home in the last 7 home games. A draw is pretty possible and double chance is 10/11 with hills. Given the form 7/2 for straight morcombe win seems very high. I've taken 10/11  double chance. Doubled it with Bury over 1.5 team goals against Gillingham who have the worst away defence in the division (38 goals).

Moreirense - Boavista (Friday 03/03)
Boavista haven't lost away last 6 matches (3W, 3D). Two of those draws were against Benfica (3-3) and Chaves (0-0). To note that Boavista has been improving in general with solid football. Last game against Porto they played good even without their key player Idris (suspended), but he is back for this match. Since January Moreirense has not impressing with disappointing home draws against Estoril and Feirense.
AH+0 Boavista > 1.93  (RETURNED)
FT 0-0

My shots ratings/ data for the season so far (does not include Porto v Maritimo from last night)

Ok here goes. Tip of the weekend coming right at you all the way from Toronto, Canada.
Blackpool v Morecambe 
I've been looking at this one for a couple of days now as often find you can get some really good big value odds on the division before the market levels out. So I was pretty stunned to see the visitors as high as 5.0 for the win, 3.25 DnB and 1.9 double chance.
When I first cast my eyes over this fixture (before odd checking) my immediate thoughts were that I'd be inclined to favor the (a) sides ability to avoid defeat over the (h) teams ability to win matches. So you can imagine my surprise/delight to see these ridiculous odds. Having followed them closely for a day or two and they haven't moved an inch! Now I've done my research and there is ABSOLUTELY no reason for the discrepancy in probabilities here between the sides and the bookies are well off.
Blackpool - They have tasted victory ONCE since December. 1 win in 15. No wins in 4. 1 clean sheet in 10 overall, 1 in 9 at (h). They have some decent prowess in the attacking 3rd but defensively they are poor and most importantly lack the mentality to win matches. 
Morecambe - 1 defeat in 11 matches. Only 1 defeat in their last 8 (a) ties (3W 4D 1L). They've also conceded none or 1 goal in 7/8 matches so getting goals past this team is tough. They have proven against far better attacks than Blackpool (recently Portsmouth, before that Doncaster, Carlisle, Mansfied) that they can grind out results even against the best. This is not fluke, it's now a consistent trait and they are one if the toughest (a) sides in the division.  They have just moved above Blackpool in the league and their manager is talking of the players playing with a freedom and that they can enjoy the rest of the season and push for a playoff spot (only six points off) which is nuts given how poor they were for the 1st half of the campaign. 
Other than Michael Rose at CB (2 match suspension) Morecambe are injury free and Blackpool have some bodies coming back into contention.
Morecambe - Double Chance 1.9 + DnB 3.25
 
Edit: not that I've bet on it, but I really think Hartlepool are a good shout to take something from their game. I think their (h) form will see them stay up and Exeter have been rocking a little. Looking back, it's crazy how much money could have been made from betting against the top three teams in Jan/Feb as they all had terrible runs.

Not doubting your credentials. I've been on and off here for tips for 10 years so know the respectable avatars
Im not on this one so I hope you get your bet in. I've been secretly hoping for WBA to crash and burn for weeks so maybe Palace will give me some satisfaction 

Haha it's true! I really don't want to get relegated mate. I have been posting on here for a few years though and would hope that the old guard back me up when I say my view on Palace is unbiased. I make bets with the sole intention of generating profit, I tend to bet a lot on Palace games because they're the team I have the most complete picture of. Business is business. 
I feel I've written enough on this thread to justify my selection. As always; people must not follow if they think I'm wrong. I'm not here to convince anybody of anything, just explaining what I'll be doing and why I think it's the right move.

Be carefull with this. I´m Bremen Fan and i think also that we will win this. But at these odds. No Hands from me for this. Darmstadt are a fighting team and Underdog - thats w things which Bremen @Home have some problems in last 2 Seasons. For me it would be no surprise if Darmstadt can grab One Point. It will be a tough game and i think it will be a ugly 1:0 for Bremen. Bremen miss Delaney again - big Blow if you watch the games with him and then the game without him @Wolfsburg last week. For sure Darmstadt are not Wolfsburg but there was many Problems on the Positons of Central Defensive Midfield from Eggestein and Vejlkovic. 

Dinsdale won, WON £150 Actually won the race at 6/1
Loss to date £1061.25

One day you might get to see a pair son.....

I'll be staying clear of Leceister due to their unpredictability. It would be utterly hilarious if they folllowed up victory v Liverpool by losing to Hull.
Should be tight and I'd expect the home side to edge it but certainly wouldn't back that asssertation with hard cash.
Im still looking hard at Watford. You can get them on a double chance at 1.61 which is reasonable to me.

€200 to €10,000 Betting Log
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Football bets only.
I will assign an estimated win percentage for each bet.
I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill
Each bet stake will be for 5%, 10% or 15% of the current bank amount.
*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.

I will kick the betting log off with the game of the week, Liverpool v Arsenal, which could have a big bearing on the Champions League places in the English Premier League.
Starting Balance: €200
English Premier League
Liverpool v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 74.4%
Stake €20

@StevieDay1983 On this one he's not... right... ? He's backing the win..
 
I get your point, perfectly valid, and I thought Leipzig was a bit like Nice or Atalanta, teams that at some point would be less effective in their leagues, and fall, but not the case, each one of these teams plays a beautiful football, solid, almost never doing a bad matchs, they're rarely in difficulties, and the only time those teams were struggling, it was against tougher opposition...
Edit: Just saw your discussion on the italian thread about atalanta this morning... We all love this team obviously!
Against "little" clubs, or mid-table clubs, they're performing well almost all the time... Particularly Leipzig... IMO no exception for me here, Leipzig is so consistent, so regular, just had an accident, but overall they're above, no major injuries, and they really impressed me on away games against Munich or Dortmund, they were solid... For me i'm much safe backing Leipzig here than away wins of Villarreal or Athletico these past 2 days...
And the fact that Augsburg has never performed a decent match against a top bundesliga team since month... i wouldn't even back the BTTS as i believe Leipzig is perfectly able to win with a clean sheet as they did a few times already...

Atalanta to beat Fiorentina at 1.91 looks good to me. The home team are really on a run of great form and their performances imo have been getting more and more accomplished. Fresh off a 2-1 win in Naples having played the last 30 with 10 men. CM Kessie was sent off and will miss this one though and he is a HUGE player for the team.
I still think they'll cope as Fiorentina's defence seems intent on chucking away 2 goal leads and their mentality must have taken a hit after Gladbach followed by Torino. Atalanta are fresher and a better team.
I also think Roma will be determined to bounce back after the cup- although I believe their heart as always on Serie A and Europa League- loss to Lazio. Will have to have a further look.