Teodore

Week 10 Roundup

Week 10 total selections 5/13 or 38%
COLTS were misfiring this weekend 
VIKINGS stronger than the cowboys
SEAHAWKS flew high over San Francisco

 
Still keeping my head above water (just )

Jonas Forejtek to beat Yunseong Chung at 1.72 with Bet365
Although I am very slightly scared by the fact that Forejtek doesn't really know Asia all that much, Chung hasn't beaten anyone decent for so long that I simply don't trust him against such a rising star. Forejtek is having an excellent season and is one of the most talented lads around, so I'm happy to chance him here.

Well, almost-the-last week is here. There are still the ATP Finals, of course, and the Davis Cup, but I'm not sure how popular the latter is going to be with the new format and the former have just a couple of matches per day, so yeah, this is where things almost come to an end this season. Enjoy and good luck!
Marin Cilic to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.71 with Pinnacle
Neither guy is in a particularly good form, but Cilic seems to be playing somewhat better nonetheless and he has a very sweet record against the (still) youngster, so I'm going with him for my first pick of the week. Moreover, the Paris conditions are quite specific and Hurkacz hasn't played in them before, so that's yet another thing speaking for the experienced Croat here.

Southampton vs Leicester
Friday night football is back for the Premier League with Southampton playing Leicester in this 8pm BST kick-off at St Mary's Stadium. These two sides have had contrasting starts to their league campaigns with the home side toiling at the wrong end of the table and the visitors are flying high up the top end of the division. Will the result favour the form book or will we see a surprise?
Southampton narrowly avoided relegation last season but with the appointment of Ralph Hasenhuttl it was hoped that the Saints could push on up the table this season. Unfortunately, the club is currently sitting in 17th place and only outside the relegation zone on goal difference. Four league games without a win has left the fans becoming concerned but the 1-1 draw versus Wolves in their last match gave hope that they might have turned a corner. What is more worrying is the fact that this poor form has continued from last season with the club only managing 2 of their last 14 league games with the worst home record in the division this season having failed to keep a clean sheet at home. However, this is a Southampton side that have scored in a club record 18 consecutive home games. 
Leicester are a completely opposing tale. Brendan Rodgers has transformed this Foxes team into a free-flowing attacking side that are making a serious push for a top four finish this season. 5 wins from their last 7 league games has pushed the team up to 3rd in the table. If Leicester win here then it'll be the first time since 1930 that they'd have won 6 of their first 10 matches in the top flight. Disconcertingly, the club hasn't kept a clean sheet in their last 12 away league games. It could also be worth backing Jamie Vardy to score any time because he's bagged 15 goals since Rodgers took over in March.
These two sides played each other three times last season with the away side winning both league games with Leicester winning the EFL Cup clash on penalties. St Mary's Stadium is a place Leicester love scoring goals having hit six here in their last two visits. I can see goals being scored again in this game. I'd have to back Leicester to sneak a 2-1 win if I was pushed on a correct score.
Leicester to Win @ 2.35 with SportNation
Anytime Scorer: Jamie Vardy @ 2.25 with Betfred
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Reilly Opelka (+2.5) to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.82 with Pinnacle
Alright, I'm also going to dip into the ATP for once this week, although I'm not sure for how long, it might be just this one bet honestly before the Paris Masters. In any case, Opelka has been surprisingly good so far this week and I loved his effort against Goffin. The Belgian isn't at his best at the moment, of course, but Opelka managed to come back against him in a fancy fashion regardless and RBA isn't going through a particularly bright patch himself, so I think that Opelka is going to be a bit better than he was in their last encounter in Shanghai thanks to his form and the somewhat more favorable conditions.

Opelka wins, that makes the week excellent! (4-1)

WEEK 8

 

WEEK 7 ROUNDUP

Week 7 total selections 5/14 or 36%  not good at all
But on the plus side 4/4 on the selected bets
VIKINGS raided the lions den and and came out best 42-30 
Jets crashed to a 33-0 defeat to the PATRIOTS
GREEN BAY sent the Raiders packing with a 42-24 victory
Falcons wings clipped again this week 37-10 to the LA RAMS

 

WEEK 7

At this point of the season, I'd be really careful about such triples. There are still bigger events coming up and most players are really tired, so you just never know what's up in the first round.

Bala Town vs Barry Town
The Cymru Premier gives us a game that is close to my heart this week. It's a Bala Town team that my own club has a close affiliation to up against league leaders Barry Town whose players we have come up against a lot in the past. Kick-off is scheduled for 2:30pm on Saturday afternoon at the Maes Tegid in Bala and it's going to be tough to separate these two teams.
Bala Town are starting to build some momentum. Three league wins on the bounce has seen Colin Caton's men rise to 4th in the table and they are now just 4 points behind their opponents today. Their home form has been a bit hit and miss over the course of the season with 3 wins and 2 losses but they're undefeated in their last three competitive matches on home turf.
Barry Town have been sublime this season. Gavin Chesterfield's men still lead the way with 23 points from their 9 league games. Only Connah's Quay and Cardiff Met Uni also possess unbeaten records this season. It's now 4 league games won on the bounce and it's hard to see who is going to inflict a first defeat on this very well-oiled Dragons unit. That said, given Bala's recent home form they stand a fair chance of giving Barry a real game today.
I keep swaying between backing a narrow 1-0 away win for Barry which has become a bit of a trademark for them this season or thinking Bala might actually catch them on the hop. Barry's postponed game against Penybont means they've had some rest but sometimes that can be a bad thing if you're enjoying the momentum of a winning run. Due to the fact I can't decent I'll have to go for a low-scoring draw.
Draw @ 3.66 with Marathonbet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.30 with Betfair

Antwerp ATP
Kwon Soon - Pella
Against my prediction, Kwon Soon succeeded to beat Gasquet. In my opinion, that happened because of the poor physical form of Gasquet. He played well first set and a part of the second but later, in longer rallies, he started to go from offensive to defensive more and more often.
Kwon Soon looks good looking at the stats. This year he played a lot of games on hard court a won almost all of them. To be noticed that almost all of the opponents, excepting a few (Gasquet himself, Pouille, Londero) were either outside top 100.
Pella does not look so impressive statistically. He played less hard-court games and his favourite surface seems to be clay. Starting with august, he played 12 hard-court games and won 6 of them. To be noticed that almost all the opponents were < top 50. He lost to guys like Basilashvilli, Careno-Busta, Schwartzman but also beat Goffin, Albot, Dimitrov.
These two guys played against each other on hard court a couple of months ago and Pella won 2:1, taking last 2 sets 6:1, 6:2. I count on Pella's slightly superior quality and experience of games against better players. Pella to win @1.83 Unibet.

WEEK 6


 

Must admit I have never really understood his posts so have just ignored him. I've had bad spells, but this past week has been one of the toughest I have had. Tonight Hartlepool defended terribly for the two goals and despite having lots of possession didn't do enough with it in the final 3rd. If people want to stop following that's up to them, but prior to Saturday I had a great couple of sessions with 4 late goals making a huge difference to things. I've been posting on here for nearly 10 years now and only a couple of times have I struggled on match betting so it is proven that I will nearly always make a profit over a season. Obviously I can never guarantee that as it is gambling at the end of the day, but hopefully come the end of April we will all be a few quid up. 

WEEK 5 ROUNDUP

WEEK 5 TOTAL SELECTIONS 9/15 or 60%
   My NAP on the SAINTS came good again 31 - 24
     Unfortunately it was no picnic for the BEARS who lost 24 - 21

The FULL SEASON TO DATE as it implies incorporates weeks 1 & 2 whose selections were not put up as there was very little data to estimate the spread and make reasonable selections. 
The SEASON TO DATE SINCE POSTING again as it implies are all the selections , bets , NAPS & NB's posted on the board pre game (from week 2 onward) and is a more accurate indication of how things are going .
I'll put them up after each week to see how things progress or regress ( whichever the case may be,hopefully the former )

 
 
 

Andrey Rublev to beat Borna Coric at 1.91 with William Hill
I'm not exactly sure why the chances should be balanced here, as I'd have the Russian as a fairly decent favorite after Coric disappointed in his last two tournaments. He has enough quality, don't get me wrong, but he doesn't seem to have enough confidence to get himself over the line at the moment and that might prove to be his downfall yet again. Rublev should take this more often than not imo.

Newtown vs Barry Town
The Cymru Premier gives us some interesting odds this weekend and, as @Bang on has pointed out, the price on Barry Town for their trip to Newtown on Saturday afternoon for a 2:30pm BST kick-off at Latham Park appears to be quite generous. Naturally, I thought I'd do a bit of digging and focus on this game for this week's preview and try to work out why the odds on the league leaders are so inflated.
Newtown have had an inconsistent start to their league season. Chris Hughes has seen his team manage 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats from their league games so far. Just 1 defeat in their last 4 matches gives an insight as to why the bookies think they might offer a stern challenge for their opponents in this game. Dig a little deeper to find that they have an unbeaten record at home in the league with 1 win and 3 draws. Struggling to get the wins but certainly making sure they don't lose. The Robins will be a tough side to break down.
Barry Town are in dreamland. The heady days of the 1990s and 2000s could be coming back to South Wales. Gavin Chesterfield's side are sitting top of the tree in the division with 6 wins and 2 draws from their 8 league games so far. The Dragons are unbeaten in the league so far and the narrow 1-0 win away to reigning champions TNS last game was a huge statement of intent.
This Barry Town side is looking like a serious proposition this year. Five clean sheets in a row is a massive sign of their defensive dominance in games and with the club 4 points clear at the top of the table with a 100% record on the road it seems hard to imagine them losing here to a lower mid-table outfit. The big question is whether they can sneak the full three points? I reckon they can. I wouldn't be surprised to see them notch up another trademark 1-0 win. I'll still recommend the draw no bet though... just to be safe!
Barry Town Draw No Bet @ 2.15 with RedZone
Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 3.50 with Betfair

NAP = Best Bet
NB = Next best

 

combo pick @ 1.55 with asianodds
De Minaur - Harris / ATP Tokyo / De Minaur +1.5 Sets @ 1.11 / 3-6, 7-6, 0-0
Brady - Keys / WTA Beijing / Keys +1.5 Sets @ 1.16 / 2-6, 0-0
Djokovic - Soeda / ATP Tokyo / Djokovic @ 1.05 / 6-3, 7-5
Barty - Zheng / WTA Beijing / Barty +1.5 Sets @ 1.08 / 6-3, 0-0
Thiem - Zhang / ATP Beijing / Thiem +1.5 Sets @ 1.06 / 6-3, 0-0
not popular in this forum, so let's make it popular. if you don't like it, just ignore my postings  

de minaur is a few levels above the south african. played very good tennis in zhuhai, likes the asian swing. normally i skip keys, but she is very solid the past weeks. brady is not good enough to beat an opponent like this in straight sets imo. djokovic banker, soeda nowhere near. barty h2h 4-0 and too clever for the sneaky way of tennis played by saisai. thiems backhand was clicking vs gasquet and i expect her to do so against the local hero zhang.

Guys what about Reading DC x2? I cant See Wolves playing here for 100%. In my opinion Premier League and Europe is to much for them. 

Feeling rather alone in here .
Mikhail Kukushkin to beat Jannik Sinner at 1.66 with Marathonbet
Sinner is certainly an up-and-coming player and I do expect big things from him going forward, but this is a tough draw for him given how well Kukushkin usually does in these Eastern European events. He's still classy enough and he needs to start getting ranking points somewhere, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him do a Basilashvili here and go really far in the entire thing.

Grigor Dimitrov (-5) to beat Kamil Majchrzak at 1.93 with Marathonbet
Cuevas should've beaten Kamil, but he was somewhat injured and just couldn't cope physically at the end of the match. Dimitrov had a day off, however, so I can't see him having any such problems against a guy that's just played a five-setter with almost no time for rest. At least one of the sets should be easy.

I cant understand what Hurkacz did but ok... 
 
I see small value on Linette against Osaka. Linette play good tennis last week. Yesterday also she show great form and I think Osaka is currently maybe not under form but for sure itd not her top. 
 

Pablo Cuevas to beat Kamil Majchrzak at 1.67 with Pinnacle
Reilly Opelka (-1.5 sets) to beat Dominik Koepfer at 1.88 with Betsson
Majchrzak was the lucky loser after Raonic withdrew and he did well to beat Jarry, but Cuevas represents a step up in quality and should be an even bigger fav imo. More quality, more experience, and Cuevas is class on almost all surfaces. Meanwhile, I very much liked Opelka's composure against Fognini and I think that he's going to record his fourth win in a row against Koepfer, who had a comparatively easier opponent in the first round and who's still on the edge between Challengers and ATP events quality-wise.

Saturday was one of those frustrating days which looked like being a really good day at one point and then ended up showing a loss, albeit small, despite only one team losing. I have 6 bets on Monday although I am not going crazy because it is set to be another very hot afternoon coming on the back of a very hot afternoon on Saturday and that is going to be very tough on the players. I think it is going to make what is already a tough turn around even tougher. It is my birthday so hopefully a profit can be made.
Boreham Wood v Ebbsfleet
Two sides with only 1 win between them and I doubt there is a great deal between the two sides which make the away team a bet at 29/10. Boreham Wood have usually been very strong at home since they got promoted, but they haven't won a home game since January and with Ebbsfleet improving (they could have beaten Notts County in the end on Saturday), they look a sporting play here.
Dover v Woking
Have I got Woking massively wrong? Having put them up to be relegated I am amazed they are top of the table after 6 games, but then they had a similar start in 2017 when I put them up to go down and they did end up being relegated so who knows! Beating Solihull 2-0 was a superb effort on the back of beating Fylde 4-1. Dover have had a good start as well, but they have lost 2 of their 3 home games and Woking have looked especially good away from home. They just shouldn't be 5/2 shots to win this game.
Blyth Spartans v Guiseley
Blyth's woeful start to the season continued on Saturday as they drew 0-0 with Bradford Park Avenue who have looked even worse than Blyth have. Guiseley have already scored 14 goals this season and must fancy their chances of adding to that tally here. I think they should be nearer even money than the 141/100 that they are.
Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
I can't believe how much Spennymoor have struggled so far and one 1 point in 4 games is not a good return for last season's beaten play-off finalists. They will surely turn it around sooner rather than later though and I think it could be on Monday as they face a Curzon side who had a nightmare trip to Kings Lynn on Saturday and then were well beaten. On paper Spennymoor are the better side and they just shouldn't be 9/4 shots.
Braintree v Dorking
Both sides lost on Saturday, but I thought Dorking's loss to Hampton was worse and Braintree seem to be gelling at last. Prior to Braintree's 2-1 defeat to Dartford on Saturday they had beaten St Albans 3-0 and Eastbourne 5-0. Dorking's only point in their last 3 games came in a draw against St Albans and they might not add to that here. Braintree certainly look over priced at 17/10.
Kingstonian v Bishops Stortford
Not been a great start to the season by the home side although they were unbeaten before Hornchurch beat them on Saturday. The main reason for tipping Stortford up though is the fact they didn't have a game on Saturday and given the conditions that could well have a big part to play in this game and for that reason at 29/10 they look a sporting play and have managed to win a game this season unlike their hosts.
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 29/10 with Bet365
Woking 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
Guiseley 1pt  @ 141/100 with Marathon
Spennymoor 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
Braintree 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon
Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor